Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that despite a new prime minister and a sudden surge in his government's polling, those outside the 'lucky country' are taking a more depressed view.
But first, house sales fell more than expected in August, a cautionary stall in the American housing market which had recently looked on stronger footing. Rising prices are starting to catch up with buyers and may be leading some to put off buying for a little longer.
Existing home sales tumbled almost -5% in August to 5.3 million, the National Association of Realtors said overnight, the steepest month-to-month decline since January. Economists had expected August sales would drop just a bit over -1%.
In China, a respected survey company has said we are all over-reacting to the slowdown there. In a report out overnight, they said that while the country's economy in Q3 was moderately weaker than in Q2 it was hardly the “game-changer” that prompted local and global markets to react sharply. Manufacturing had its weakest performance in two years during the July-September period, but the service sector remained strong by any measure, they said based on a survey of more than 2,100 companies. They claim that while China exports were weaker, their economy is transforming faster than we realise to one supported by internal demand and services.
But there will be losers in this transition, and Australia has been flagged by the IMF as a major one. The negative views about Australia's prospects now seem to be the standard ones. It is clearly better to be selling food in our region than base minerals.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield benchmark has risen in today's trading and is now at 2.19%, up +6 bps. Equities are higher in Shanghai and New York today.
The US benchmark oil price is marginally up today, now at US$46/barrel and the Brent benchmark is at US$49/barrel.
The gold price has given back some of yesterday's gains however, to US$1,132/oz.
The New Zealand dollar starts today a little lower as well. It is now at 63.1 US¢, to 88.5 AU¢, and 56.4 euro cents. The TWI-5 starts at 67.6.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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