Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news many mortgage appliers stretch the truth on their loan applications.
But first, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, again near a 43-year low. And the number of job layoffs is running -25% below the same level a year ago, even though they rose from the prior month in line with seasonal changes. Their labour market data seems likely to support a Fed rate hike, but actually, tomorrow's non-farm payrolls data will be the more important data-set than today's indicators. Markets expect a +170,000 rise.
The US presidential campaign has hardened attitudes about global trade and immigration issues - especially as we read about them in the media. But what do actual Americans think about these ideas- are they as polarised as reported, or are they even buying the 'fear' campaigns? It seems not. An interesting survey is out on these issues, and it is worth a read. Most Americans are still relaxed about immigration, it seems, and still think an integrated world is a good thing. Bluster and bullying may be the subject of reporting, but reason seems to be intact among most American voters.
The UN's food agency the FAO says that wheat and rice prices are set to stay low as harvests and yields hit new all-time records.
In China, they are moving to quell their housing market froth, city by city. Last week we reported on Beijing's actions. Now, a total of 19 large Chinese cities have rolled out specific policies including higher mortgage downpayments and home purchase restrictions to curb speculative housing purchases in the past week.
In Europe, we have had a "no comment" from the German Finance minister - but not a rejection - as to whether the German government would step in to rescue Duetsche Bank. This is a significant change from Angela Merkel's earlier outright rejection of the idea. The IMF's tough warning on systemically important global banks may be focusing minds in Berlin.
In Canada, their housing agency is casting doubt on whether the new taxes and restrictions have 'caused' the Vancouver market to retreat. They say the trend started well before these latest regulatory actions came into play, and that the turn-down is just part of a normal market reaction.
In Australia, a survey out yesterday shows that more than one in four people who apply for a home loan "stretch the truth" on their application forms and documentation. The number is higher in NSW and Victoria, and the number is higher when the application goes through a mortgage broker. We may accuse politicians of 'stretching the truth' but it seems the flaw is deeply embedded in their constituents as well.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield has risen again today and is now at 1.74%.
The US benchmark oil price is a little higher too, now just under US$50.50 a barrel, while the Brent benchmark is now just under US$52.50 a barrel. Two new oil fields have been discovered in Texas and Alaska, and experts say this is just the beginning of identifying such reserves.
The gold price is down even further today, and now at US$1,255/oz.
The New Zealand dollar is lower again against the US dollar, but that is more to do with greenback strength. It is now at 71.5 US¢, and on the cross rates it is holding at 94.3 AU¢, and 64.1 euro cents. The NZ TWI-5 index is now at 75.2.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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