Content supplied by RoyMorgan
During October support for National rose by 6.5% to 48% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 38% (down 7.5%) after Prime Minister John Key travelled extensively overseas – including an address to a UN conference in late September.
If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected.
However, support for the National partners was down slightly with the Maori Party down 0.5% to 1.5% while Act NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).
Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 26.5% (down 7%), Greens 11.5% (down 0.5%) and NZ First 10% (up 1.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0.5% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (up 0.5%).
In line with the jump in support for National the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 126.5pts (up 9.5pts) in October with 55.5% (up 3.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 29% (down 6%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’).
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“Following several overseas trips for Prime Minister John Key including travelling to New York to address the United Nations in late September today’s October Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for National has increased substantially – up 6.5% to 48%.
“Key’s September trips were followed up by a much publicised trip to India to visit one of New Zealand’s largest trading partners in late October – although this trip was after this poll was conducted. Key’s trip to India was primarily to support the negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement between the two nations after Key launched the NZ Inc India Strategy in 2011.
“Although support for National has increased by only 1% since the 2014 NZ Election just over two years ago it is worth noting that support for right-wing rivals the Conservatives has crashed to a negligible less than 0.5% - down nearly 4% since the election. This support appears to have returned to National and a resurgent NZ First – 10% (up 1.5% in October).”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors in October 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
The original report is here.
37 Comments
Justice,
I follow the US polls closely through fivethirty.com and they certainly don't show Clinton winning easily,but with a lead of 2 to 3 points. A few weeks ago,her lead was closer to 10 points.
I don't know if she will win,but however much I dislike her,I dislike Trump a great deal more.
Little hope for Labour to win in 2017 .... who do they represent now , anyway .... public servants ? .... no coal miners left in Blackball ...
... expect New Labour to emerge post the next election , with Robertson & Adern at the helm ...
And expect TOP to suck out the life-blood from Winston First ....
... we live in exciting times ; Gareth Morgan to trump Peters !
No-one is claiming this will be the result in October 2017. It is just a poll of what could happen if the election was in October 2016. I calculate the margin of error as +/- 3.32% based on the 874 people polled, and the number of people who voted in the last general election. This RM poll is a phone poll, calling land lines and mobile phones.
I think it's the uncomfortable thought of another 3 years of National and what the country will look like at the end of it. The social harms are growing and there's a huge divide opening up between the haves / have nots that is going to affect NZ society for years to come.
Good news if you're an Auckland landlord I suppose.
Again, the FACT is the election is not being held tomorrow so......? What's it worth? I'll tell you. Jack..... Boo
To even print this garbage just serves as propaganda reinforcement. Some actual self aware media would grasp that. we are sadly lacking anything close to that
Watched Little on The Nation this morning. He was announcing what seemed like a reasonable measure to fund addressing skills shortages but it's hard to tell given he was so wishy washy about what it actually entailed. As superficial as that may seem the reality is he has to get much punchier with his delivery or he will not engage voters.
They haven't worked out yet that this is a propaganda war, and are on the losing strategy of treating the electorate like adults who care about long-term goals and policy, and integrity. What wins now is bullshit, cheap shots, pandering to vanity, and mindless tribalism. Dull and honest isn't going to cut it in that environment.
Propaganda war is so last century. To win you need to be a master of meme war. It's the Internet Age now.
Yet another arrogant comment from our prime minister. Apparently, any support for Gareth Morgan will 'come from Labour and the Greens'. There are no disillusioned National voters it seems.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11742870
I'm a " centre right " voter ... who has not placed a vote for the Gnats at all during the Jolly Kid's tenure ...
... had to split my vote around ACT / NZ First , and even ( shudder ! ) Labour ... but now I have a new choice , TOP , a natural fit for my economic outlook ...
I will go back to my natural inclination of voting for the Gnats only after the Jolly Kid has left the scene ...
... I know the mixed feelings traditional Republicans have in the US , wanting to be loyal to the party , but unable to because of your intense dislike for their current leader ...
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