Boeing loses WTO challenge, Airbus may as well; OECD forecasts positive for NZ; iron ore price scorches higher; China pressures Singapore; UST 10yr yield at 2.32%; oil and gold down; NZ$1 = 70.6 US¢, TWI-5 = 76.4

Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news China is tightening the screws now it no longer fears an effective US policy in the region.

But first, the World Trade Organization has ruled that a local tax break to help Boeing develop its new 777X jetliner in the Seattle area was a prohibited subsidy. Airbus is also facing a parallel case which it will probably lose too.

The latest OECD forecasts are for rising growth in the US, back up to +3%. The OECD likes the Trump US$1 tln infrastructure spending plan. They also see continuing low growth in Europe, slowing growth in China, and rising growth in India. In Australia, The OECD essentially calls for higher interest rate settings from the RBA, and some fiscal loosening to help get their economy back on track. For New Zealand, they see growth above +3% next year before moderating in 2018, and they say the RBNZ has a 'mildly contractionary' policy in place.

And speaking of Australia's prospects, the spot price for iron ore is having a stunning rebound. Its price climbed to US$80.83 at its latest fix earlier today. That's the first time it has traded above US$80 since October 2014. The price has risen +26% this month alone and has risen +82% so far in 2016. By any measure, that is impressive and to a large extent not picked by any analyst. Actually, copper, zinc and lead are also rising in price.

In South East Asia, China is raising the temperature again, insisting Singapore toe the Beijing line, and impounding Singaporean military hardware in Hong Kong. That is the sort of action that may concern us, but China is more forceful on its own citizens, using its wide economic influence to impose social control on its people.

In New York, the UST 10yr yield is lower today, now at 2.32%.

The US benchmark oil price is up a bit today and now just above US$47 a barrel, while the Brent benchmark is now over US$48 a barrel. But OPEC looks in disarray and some see this trouble as a point where the oil price turns down sharply.

The gold price has recovered some of what it lost over the weekend, up +US$13 today so far and is now at US$1,191/oz.

The New Zealand dollar will start the week a little higher again at 70.6 US¢. On the cross rates it is also level pegging at 94.5 AU¢, and against the euro it is firm at 66.8 euro cents. The NZ TWI-5 index is still at 76.4 however.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».