We want your opinion about what is likely to happen in the year ahead, on anything that affects our economy

2017 in itself will be a very difficult and unpredictable year and with election in NZ - will be interesting for Kiwis.

Being election year, either national will announce some new policy (change in their current rigid approach of denial) on immigration, housing, tax or will definitely be loosing. Inequality anywhere in the world hurts - anything in extreme is bad and lot of things are in extreme in NZ.

Trump will back Israel on sanctions associated with the December 24th UN resolution on settlement and NZ will be at the forefront of the firing line.

A big share market slump with Trump coming in. House prices will continue upwards until some policies come in to resolve the problem. Interest rates will go up a bit or remain relatively static.

Global interest rates continue to rise as the US recovers, putting pressure on emerging and developed markets that have become accustomed to low interest rates. China refuses to let yuan float; it continues to spend its war chest on propping up the currency. By the end of the year, there is much more concern of a financial crisis emanating from a correction in the yuan and the Chinese financial sector.

Closer to home, rising global interest rates put pressure on the RBNZ to follow suit. Rather than risk inflation from an incipient decline in the kiwi dollar, Wheeler does what everyone expects and signals further rises in the OCR. With mortgage rates rising, the tide goes out on the Auckland property market, and two to three years down the track we all get to see who still has their pants on.

Election 2017 in NZ. Winston Peters the PM.
Interest rates cross 7% by Dec 2017.
NZ Dollar falls by 15% average by end of Dec 2017.
House prices in Auckland fall by 10% by Dec 2017.
A skirmish in South China Sea ?
Oil crosses $75.
Kurdistan raises tension in that part of the Middle East.
Russia extends its Navy's reach.

My prediction for New Zealand is that nothing particularly interesting will happen to our current circumstances. There will be the ongoing external influences, but in particular, rising interest rates will continue to be offset by record breaking migration inflows.

Being an election year only serves to postpone any real decision making to 2018 and barring English wishing to create his only mark as PM before his increasingly likely loss, 2018 will be the real year of decision (or indecision). I look forward to any alleged National Party leaks, but I don't think it will make any difference to the spirit of indifference we see today. Of course those who care will be all that more determined, but it will either reinforce a foregone conclusion, or be yet another puff of hot air.

I think 2017 will be relatively sluggish across the board for NZ. But next year will be the return of a number of overhyped companies both here and abroad. I think we're going to see a lot of irrational investing, ignoring fundamentals and the overall market. I think the real shows are going to be around 2020 and they are going to be spectacular.

My payment from the Govt for being unemployed/able will remain.......NIL
My TAB investments will return.............................................................NIL
My returns from the NZX/HBL...............................................................5/6%
My returns from NZX/RBC....................................................................WHO WOULD KNOW
My returns from my penny deadfull companies NZX............................NIL
Return from term deposits .............................3%
Petrol will rise
Food prices will rise
House price in AK will remain unaffordable for FHB
House prices else where will rise insignificantly
Car prices will rise
Wages will remain low
English will remain PM
Tourism will falter,
Another earthquake likely,
Trump to annoy millions no matter what he does.

dopey tourists will get lost in national parks,truck crashes will block motorways.rents will go up,wages will stay down.national support will drop below 40%.causing outbreak of myotonia congenita among national list MPs.

a couple of nz companies will have breakout years on the world stage as they expand (not xero)
interest rates will continue to rise and you wont get any mortgage under 5 %
the FED will raise once then hold (signal 3 for next year)
Trump WILL impose a duty on imports from certain countries
house prices will continue to rise with this government doing nothing
immigration will continue upwards
WP will become kingmaker
added arise sir JK in the queens birthday honors and will fly to England to have the queen bestow the award

National will loose election and real reason of John Key resignation will be out in public domain by March / April 2007.

The USA is already at fullish employment and Trump wishes to slow or reverse immigration and start spending big on infrastructure. Starting a trade war as well doesn't make sense in those circumstances. So I am somewhat positive that Trump will not be an economic disaster. US interest rates are likely to rise and NZ may well follow suit. Staff shortages here will really start to bite pressuring the hospitality industry among others, but start to lift wage inflation which would be a good thing. Assuming the Nats hold the line a little on immigration then property prices should be stable. Bill English is talking steady as she goes with some focus on infrastructure spend. While I would advocate him being much more bold still, broadly the policies seem correct. National to win handily although hopefully Little will inspire a competitive opposition. Corporate profits should be okay although will need to be to justify current valuations. Mostly a positive outlook then .

Trump will be the most successful President in 2017 as Stocks have risen to record levels since he was elected.

Australian Banks continue to strangle New Zealand business with their recent capital lending restrictions and xenaphobic policy on overseas income will stop the Auckland Unitary plan in it's tracks.

Auckland's Property market will spring back from the auction room funeral results from February 2017 as immigration and migration to Auckland swells to record numbers.

Election: labor, greens colilition will get a lot closer than people think but winston will hold the balance of power. He will side with national.

Property prices will level in Auckland and slowly start to platoue in the rest if the country ( 2018 )
The media focus will start to turn from high house prices to immigration numbers.
Fuel prices will slowly rise.
Interest rates will rise a bit but not as much ad currently predicted.
Trump will cut immigration but most of his taffif talk on Chinese goods will just be all talk, maybe a couple of media hyped moves but nothing of substance.
Tourism will keep growing.
Share market will rise say 3% but the jitters will start coming late in the year.

My prediction is the Auckland housing market will continue to fall gradually as Kiwis realize that foreign buyers have trailed off due to the 'Trump Effect' and they shouldn't be paying for massively over inflated house prices for glorified sheds. If you don't believe me, that this is happening then go take a look at the latest auction listings and results.

How much it will drop by is too early to tell at this stage; if Trump follows through with his election promises then we're looking at quite a big drop of over -20%. If he's full of hot air is a suspect he is over introducing tariffs on imports, then it will probably drop by -10% and the market will remain subdued.

Though we need our housing market to drop to take the heat out of the NZD, so I could almost start to like Mr Trump (I did say almost).

Post fact trump era will herald in choppy markets
Wholesale rates will increase by 150-200bps; retail mortgage rates will no longer have 4s at the front while the long terms will have 6s
Auckland house prices (for actual sales) will fall 5-10%
Australia will look relatively more appealing economically so net migration will be down to 50k for 12m ended Dec 17.
The lions will win the series after 3abs are yellow carded in the final game for allegedly dodgy tackles

Ok, i through in a fake one there....

Trump will be stable as. Once congress passes a law that Presidents cant use twitter.

Steven joice will get hit in the face by an inflatable dildo. Yip that's a 2017 prediction, I think it's going to happen again :)

Mister Trump is a lurch to the right.
One that is well overdue.

My prediction that JK would resign after the last election happened, but my timing was slightly premature. I now predict that drug use worldwide and in NZ will increase, the "war on terror" will continue to fail, few countries will meet their ineffectual voluntary Paris agreement emissions targets and global heating will accelerate, eventually swamping all concerns over Auckland house prices. Oh, and the rich will get richer.

Dairy prices will correct sharply based on supply side response from the northern hemisphere and China imposing non tariff barriers as a result of NZ siding with the US on South China Sea issues.

Sheep prices will remain depressed (a gimme)

A twitter war between Trump and Kim Jong Un will see North Korea become the epicentre of international tensions.

NZ First will surge to 18% at the election by picking up blue collar Labour voters, regional National voters and young voters affected by mass immigration on both their wages and house prices. Winston will side with National after winning significant concessions on cutting immigration, limiting foreign investment and overturning race based legislation.

Rising inflation and interest rates will see highly indebted property speculators and FHBs head for the exits.

ABs beat the Lions 2-1.

The change of US policy towards China will be the biggie this year. What the means for NZ is the unknown.

National ~45%
Labour/Greens ~40% (-2% if TOP is estabilished)
NZ First ~12%

Mana 1 seat
Maori 0 seats
United Future 1 seat
Act 0 Seats

TOP Party (if exists): 0 seats, 2% party vote

Winnie has balance of power and demands to be Prime Minister

National entertains idea but will not move on NZ First Immigration policies

NZ first goes with Labour/Greens/Mana with a Little/Winnie Co Leadership

Vancouver house prices down 20%, Melbourne down 10%, Auckland basically flat.

Australia will go into recession.

Trump and China will butt heads - outcome unpredictable.

Too early to predict election. If English continues to do nothing on housing, immigration, and social services, National will lose. If he can sell the country on a bold new evidence-based policy, probably win. My advice: fix immigration settings, steal kiwibuild policy, and cancel 1 bil new prison and spend instead on policies that keep people out of jail - commit to bringing incarceration rate down to OECD average in 10-20 years. Cancel unhelpful knee jerk policies like 3 strikes. However, would need a strong sales job - not sure English can deliver.

My prediction for F 17 Interest rates will " Fall " when Trumpy and EU governments realise when they can't afford 3 percent rates as a result nationalised GFC bank restructuring debt that governments now carry

Astute market participants like Peter hall don't quit because they "know" what's going to happen. The last 8 odd years has distorted any sort of financial common sense to the degree that I doubt anyone of us has any real idea what's going to happen!

Mr Hall, who also declined to comment, is said to be seeking a break from investing for personal reasons having found market conditions unsuited to his style and feeling increasingly uncomfortable with the direction politics is taking given his strong ideologies. Mr Hall controls a more than 40 per cent interest in (Hunter Hall International), of which he was also chief executive, meaning his own wealth suffers the most. Mr Hall's biggest investment victories, earning Hunter Hall hundreds of millions in profits. He first bought (Sirtex) when it was at $3.64 - it has gone to $39
http://www.afr.com/markets/peter-hall-resigns-from-hunter-hall-role-201…

the TOP party will have more success at framing the debate at the election than gaining votes. There will be no dirty politics type event this cycle.

Auckland house prices will drop in some months, and increase in others, both events attracting hundreds of comments on this site. People will continue to manipulate the data to prove whatever theory they are pushing.

People will continue to fret about overseas events, none of which will have any huge impact on NZ. Trump will cause some major diplomatic incident before June. China will remain a mystery. Europe will continue to unravel. Another photogenic assassin will kill someone to make a political statement.

Milk prices will rise. Farmers will nonetheless continue to ask for handouts.

Not enough houses will be built in Auckland. Instead more people will start leaving, increasing prices in the more Auckland like regions.

As fuel prices rise Uber drivers in Auckland will start to realise they're either breaking even or losing money on many journeys.

There will be no real winners in 2017, except the plutocrats, who always win. Where victory comes it will taste like ashes. There is a big tide turning I think, but its taking a long time and 2017 we see neither the ebb nor the flood dominate.

Interest rates will rise here for the next two years. After this point either war or ECB collapse will create significant disruption which will have an impact.

House prices will stay high or increase due to low interest rates.

Inequality will increase and the majority of kiwis will get poorer as household debt increases while inflation stays relatively low.

Unless there is a nuclear war or NZ is invaded 2017 will be a boring year.

I will predict great progress on making my second $m.........

I have given up on making the first one!

;o))

I predict that as with 2016, 2017 will not get Keith Richards.

National will win the election....just.

The English speaking, so called "global cities", which are really just international transit hubs will continue to be hot property. Auckland being one of these will see house prices stable for 2017. Satellite cities like Hamilton will continue to rise in price moderately but will also expand. Proximity to the transit hubs will be seen internationally as the next best thing.

There will be moves by governments to restrict Internet freedom. The real war for human freedom will take place here. More laws will be posited to try and criminalise thoughts and opinions. Social media companies and search engines will try to accommodate meddling governments. There will be massive blow back on those trying to do this as alternatives sprout up all over the Internet.

The mainstream media has been rightfully called out and been badly, possibly fatally, mauled in 2016. They will have to change in order to survive. No one cares about the "opinions" of the mainstream media anymore, they are just a joke and boring and pretentious as hell. For sport people will be watching like hawks at everything they say and do to detect fake news.

I predict all MPs of all persuasions, will persuade each other to take a pay rise.

Banks will make a killing, either way, but will never see the inside of a prison cell.

Houses will rise and fall with the tides, as Global Climate change ...increases.

Low lying Real Estate Agents will flip just about anything. 4% will never be enough, unless multiplied.

Lawyers will take a larger share of all transactions, tis their god given right.

Insurance Companies will take a bigger cut of the action, but will run for cover as larger waves hit.

Interest may change as markets rise and fall and exchanges rates flip about.

Bankers will rub their hands raw, but with glee.

Middle age spread, will reduce due to the price of butter, milk and Manuka honey and petrol as the average person will have to walk to work in Auckland, from their house in Whangarei

China cups will break. Rhinos will become extinct as they keep pulling their horns in. Populations will there for diminish. No new houses required.

Councils and land bankers will pull their finger out, way to late in the picture.

Bloggers will come to blows about houses as skiting and twittering about Real Estate, becomes a vast subject of eternal glory.....end of story.

Credit where credit is due, will become a problem of monu-mental proportions.

I predict that house prices in Auckland will crash by 30 % .....

... hey Bernard ... you're not still using that line , are you .... is it OK if I borrow it for the next 12 months ?

Ooooh it's looking like that Vancouver tax is really starting to bite their property market now: -

Prices plunging: Houses selling well below asking, some under $1M
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/prices-plunging-houses-selling-well-below-asking-s…

Interest rates will continue gradually increasing.
National will form a coalition with NZ First and Winston will be Minister of Foreign Affairs
Charles will become king.
Massive earthquake will cause widespread damage in lower North Island.
Kim will divorce Kanye.
Fuel, groceries, electricity costs will all increase.
Goff will hire Len Brown as a consultant to Auckland Council. Stating that Len brings a wealth of experience.
Goff will backtrack and fire Len Brown due to the public outcry. But will pay a $50k exit fee which Goff will say "I'm not happy about it but it was out of my control".
Goff will introduce regional fuel tax and then backtrack due to public outcry.
Goff will increase rates by an average of 3%.

In 2017:
- The Feds won't be able to lift rates 3 x
- Trump will only carry through few of his election promises
- Europe will continue to struggle in a paralysis of status quo
- Auckland house prices will stagnate (0% growth, no crash, no price appreciation)
- There will be a continued shift to the right worldwide
- There will be no clear winner in the NZ election hence Peters will be kingmaker again

New Zealand will eventually undergo a terrorist attack. This may be the year.

- Bill English will likely be PM and yes Winston P will play a significant role.
- AKL central house prices will post net positive result likely between 4-6%. North Shore, Manukau and Waitakere will mostly stagnate.
- More housing projects will be cancelled.
- Banks will use every opportunity to raise interest rates. Interest rate increase will cause an increase in rents. However the increase in rent will be delayed and obvious later in the year.
- We will continue to hear that "Smart money has already left" :)
- AKL will continue to feature as one of the top cities to live in and many will continue to scratch their head upon reading it.
- Water view project completion will make many happy.
- Air travel and petrol and will get expensive.
- Lastly, Apple will announce their entry into automotive sector and also release their best iPhone ever ;)

Central banks will continue to play games with an enfeebled global economy. Europe and Japan will continue to strive for the carrot with inept policy , China's growth will continue to falter with signs of social tension , the UK will take another downward leg down before stabilising. US 10 Y will rise to 3.00- 3.25 in 2017, but with the business cycle in its late stages the rise in interest rates will ensure a recession as housing and consumption crushed by 'inflation' fade. Interest rates will again turn globally lower end 2017.With multiple markets enriched by 8 years of rising asset prices, the likes of Australia and New Zealand will need to lower interest rates to maintain the illusion a little longer.and ensure those with ears stuffed with dollar notes not to hear anything different. Graham Wheeler will not seek a second term , DTI will not break sweat. The NZD will reach parity with AUD by 2Q . The USD late 2017 will be the currency to own , as China devalues and drags the world into a cyclonic currency battle.

As at 31/12/2017 I predict:
- TNX (US 10-year treasury rate) @ > 3%
- Gold @ > $USD1,400 oz
- Silver @ > $USD25 oz
- Oil @ > $USD70
- Dow Jones @ 17,000
- S&P 500 @ 1,900
- $NZD:$USD 0.59, despite aggressive RBNZ rate hike cycle.
- $AUD:$NZD > 1.22; & on a 12-month lag (at 31/12/2018) NZ experiences a record swing in immigration numbers with heavy migration to Australia.
- £GBP:$NZD > 2.35; £GBP outperforms all majors on increasing continental Europe turmoil.
- NZX50 5,500 though Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd bucks the trend to go > $NZD10 & become largest market cap on NZX.
- Fonterra payout on 2017/2018 forecast at $9.15 despite large Danone settlement timed to coincide with high WMP cycle.
- Gareth Morgan TOP > 5%, National led coalition to make taxation concessions.
- Auckland average house price per QV drops from $NZD1,051,387 in NOV16 to $NZD750,000 in NOV17 as mortgage delinquencies stack up on the back of surging residential interest rates & Australian banks play hard ball on NZ residential real estate as dairy strength continues.
- Marine Le Pen, National Front assumes power in France.
- Frauke Petry, Alternative for Germany assumes power in Germany.
- EU dissolution confirmed.
- Lockheed Martin Corp > $USD300
- BHP Billiton Limited > $AUD35
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia $AUD65
- Ramsay Health Care Limited >$AUD77

Quite bearish unfortunately but some great opportunities in selected asset classes.

"Economic predictions require predicting what politicians are going to do – and nothing is more unpredictable.” (h/t John Mauldin)

Generally I find the world a fascinating place to watch, of course I am in the same poop as the rest of you. All depends on how well Trump and the Republican house leaders / party get on. If Trump and the Republican houses gel, and they move fast, their work will tip the US into a severe recession and then the world. I suspect they will start by forcing the Fed the raise the OCR, but as they chop the social security net and obamacare going for "savings" they will do a Greece I think.

Otherwise happy new year!

Prediction. The things Trump will do will be less wild than the reaction from the 'former ' elite. Who will be hysterical.

Merkel will be thrown out.
Gert Wilders will win in the Netherlands.

OCR hikes and interest rates will be heading up.
Investors will be cautions and property prices flattening especially in Auckland once the interest rises start.
% First home buyers will increase
NZX50 will not see 2016 growth but import companies will do well.
NZX will do well overall and agri sector will get great crops but nz$ will remain high.
National will win
W Peters will shake up the election

World trade to continue to slide, our economy to be bolstered by floods of migrants desperate for a safe haven, more interruptions of digital way of life as hacking becomes the new war by 'error' messages.
Many Euro banks to begin their final slide to extinction with bail-ins becoming the catch-phrase on everyone lips by year end. Stock buy backs to stall, with sharemarket correction wiping out more and more retirement plans. NZ dollar weaker, rivers dirtier!

Extraterrestrials will visit Earth.

The biggest factor for 2017 is one crazy, unpredictable and arguably brilliant man named Donald Trump.
I am in the USA now, and most people I talk to are very optimistic about Trump, and those who are not are generally the young SJWs who don't really hold much real power in the world anyway.

How Trump deals with China and NZ is a huge nail biter to me.
If he decides to close economic relations with China, will he ask us to do the same or face being closed out of the USA?

I believe NZ will be put in a very tough position this year, and I do not envy Bill English for having to try and placate Trump and maintain our relations with the USA and China.

I predict this election at home will be an explosive one, it will be a battle of National vs The Rest.
I think the key battle grounds are going to be housing and agriculture (spearheaded by the Greens, focusing on pollution from the dairy industry, and animal welfare).

Lab/Greens/NZ First will launch a divisive campaign calling for massive cuts to migration (but with a boost of the refugee intake to please the SJWs), and to ban any future dairy conversions, and look at reducing water rights and nutrient leaching limits nationwide to appease the blame everything on dairy farming brigade.

I think National will still retain a comfortable margin over the opposition, due to the shocking confirmation, that Andrew Little is indeed, a robot.

Other predictions I am reasonably confident in making are:

Dairy prices will peak at around $6 and taper off a little to a $5.50 forecast for 17/18.
Beef prices will continue to steadily taper down as extra beef animals from the last 2 years of dairy downturn start to hit the market.
Sheep farmers will not get any good news.

Auckland house prices will be flat due to uncertainty around the NZ election and NZs future immigration settings.
Most of the rest if the country will see growth, but slowing later in the year.

The World will continue largely as it has for the last few years. Trump will cause diplomatic tension, but the checks and balances in the US political system will render him impotent. Strangely though, although Trump will not run for re-election in 2020 (citing some obviously fabricated personal issue), the replacement republican candidate, moderate and palatable, will hold the White House.

Back home, Winston will make a hash of his run at next year's election (finally his last), and Labour will undergo another leadership change after yet another defeat (Ardern will ultimately lead the party to victory, but that's for my 2020 predictions). English will be rolled by the end of 2018 - a sinister battle brought by the likes of Coleman and Collins, but from the rubble, Joyce will emerge the victor.

There will continue to be vast bias in the coverage of minor terrorist events affecting the blessed 'West', while atrocities of far greater magnitude are brushed aside.

My biggest prediction: the accelerated demise of the traditional news media.

Happy 2017 everyone!