It is that time of the year again when we look forward to a New Year and imagine what is in store for us.
2017 will be an election year, and we will be covering all the economic plans and promises.
So, what do you think will happen in 2017? (Please focus on the economic aspects.)
Were you brave enough to record your guess last year? You can find it here and check out how good a forecaster you were.
We love bagging economists and their forecasts, but it seems to me many/most of us who had a crack at what will happen in 2016 got it materially wrong - and in major ways. There were also some wild flukes that came in (Trump, for example) but that "accuracy" didn't seem to extend to other wild guesses, even from the same commenters. (Some notable exceptions however - Waymad for example.)
Can you do better for 2017?
This story is to encourage you to record your 2017 predictions.
They can be on any topic that has an impact on the New Zealand economy: anything, including property, interest rates, exchange rates, insurance, rural issues, the dairy payout, our migration issues, our relationship with China, the big international trade negotiations. But please try to ground them in the economy. (For example fashion or celebrity comments are not relevant, but climate change issues are.)
You will need to be logged in to comment and respect our commenting policies (and respond to others' differing views in a respectful and civil way).
Over to you.
109 Comments
2017 in itself will be a very difficult and unpredictable year and with election in NZ - will be interesting for Kiwis.
Being election year, either national will announce some new policy (change in their current rigid approach of denial) on immigration, housing, tax or will definitely be loosing. Inequality anywhere in the world hurts - anything in extreme is bad and lot of things are in extreme in NZ.
I'm with you, what were we thinking.
Australia has positioned itself for prosperity in 2017.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/88027063/australia-backs-israel-rather-tha…
.
NZ has done the opposite
Some reasonable observations: (which ZS may have been surmising)
John Kerry visited NZ in Nov asking Mccully & Key to table the rewritten resolution.
Key only acquiesced due to his relationship with Obama, Mccully was more keen, wishing to leave his mark on the UN, & enhance his trade deals with Iran and Saudi.
John Keys mother escaped the Nazi persecution of the Jews in Austria during WW2, so he would be mindful of the historical and personal background to the formation of Israel & surrounding issues.
The suddenness of the resignation is another factor.
MortgageBelt has pretty much summed it up. I would add that the way that NZ arrives at diplomatic decisions is surprisingly secretive. We are not privy to the reasoning behind many things. What input did Key have? We simply don't know. Being a PM must be stressful and having the added anxiety of a belligerent and angry Netanyahu phoning you up could be the straw that broke the camels back.
Yes, closed door discussions on NZs role in advancing US goals at the UN regarding Israel.
Then hours later "Glasses broke and furniture moved at Premier House, the official prime ministerial residence in Wellington, Mr. Key said. He had stayed there overnight after meeting with Secretary of State John Kerry, who was on a state visit there and to Antarctica". www.nytimes.com
The earthquake may have also had a bearing on the decision to resign.
Consider that New Zealand voted against the Israeli government policy for the very best of reasons. Which is that the Israeli settlement programme is provocative, murderous and they need to be told just that. Look the bully in the eye and say. I'm proud of New Zealand for this.
KH - You clearly dont understand the Israeli Palestinian conflict.
I suggest you read the book "From Time Immemorial" about the origins of the Arab-Jewish Conflict over Palestine. It is a controversial 1984 book by Joan Peters about the demographics of the Arab population of Palestine and of the Jewish population of the Arab world before and after the formation of the State of Israel.
Many have changed their minds towards Israel after reading that book.
It is worth visiting Wikipedia to get an idea why the book is controversial:
Ad home argument there orig. Sad. That book is clearly just another produced by one side to support their desired outcome. Both sides try to rewrite the history. And yes, I do know a lot about this conflict and the dubious history cited by both you and the other side.
Actually I don't care what happened when, way back. The various convolutions there provide no solutions or any way forward. But right here right now it's clear that Israel has the upper hand and is remorseless crushing innocents to achieve what they want. Provocative and murderous of the weak.
I'm proud of my country when it stands for the weak. And orig, you should be ashamed of your support of your evil regime.
It is very sad to hear you say "Rewrite the history" and "Dubious history".
I will not be suprised if people like you will end up saying that the Holocaust is also a Dubious history.
Quote from Ralph Galloway, a former head of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), in Amman, capital of Jordan, in August 1958:
"The Arab states do not want to solve the refugee problem. They want to keep it as open sore, as an affront to the United Nations and as a weapon against Israel. Arab leaders don't give a damn whether the refugees live or die."
Bottom line, do you know how many times the Palestinians have been offered a state by Israel and even by the UN and have rejected it? 3 (Three) times and yet every time they rejected it and either started a war or an Intifada.
I suggest you go back to your history books before you comment any further about Israel right to exist and defend itself.
I will conclude with a quote that is so true today and not even related to Israel.
If the Arabs (Muslims) put down their weapons today there would be no more violence and this is so true today all over the world and not only in Israel unless people like you, KH are completely blind.. If the Israelis put down their weapons today there would be no more Israel.
I agree, discussion went completely off topic.
So my prediction for 2017.
NZ first will become the second largest party and will join National to form a government.
He will implement his immigration policies.
OCR will climb back to 2.5% before the end of the year.
As a result of OCR and immigration, house prices will fall by at lest 10% if not more than that.
It exposes the hypocrisy of New Zealand when New Zealanders forget the illegal land confiscations of Maori tribal land under the Treaty of Waitangi in the 1860's.
Hamas,Hezbollah sending Palestinian kids as suicide bombers into Israel to kill innocent people is murderous & provocative.
Global interest rates continue to rise as the US recovers, putting pressure on emerging and developed markets that have become accustomed to low interest rates. China refuses to let yuan float; it continues to spend its war chest on propping up the currency. By the end of the year, there is much more concern of a financial crisis emanating from a correction in the yuan and the Chinese financial sector.
Closer to home, rising global interest rates put pressure on the RBNZ to follow suit. Rather than risk inflation from an incipient decline in the kiwi dollar, Wheeler does what everyone expects and signals further rises in the OCR. With mortgage rates rising, the tide goes out on the Auckland property market, and two to three years down the track we all get to see who still has their pants on.
Election 2017 in NZ. Winston Peters the PM.
Interest rates cross 7% by Dec 2017.
NZ Dollar falls by 15% average by end of Dec 2017.
House prices in Auckland fall by 10% by Dec 2017.
A skirmish in South China Sea ?
Oil crosses $75.
Kurdistan raises tension in that part of the Middle East.
Russia extends its Navy's reach.
ah, err, these were your 2016 picks ;)
by SmoKey | Thu, 31/12/2015 - 14:18Trump will implode, Hillary will lose her momentum and Rubio will become President. with Hillary accepting the VP position.
Oil will go up to $70 per barrel.
USD will slide by 15%
Aussie economy will go down more, pushing up NZ as an attractive destination for migration, making
Aussie the back door entry to NZ (Understand that already many PR holders in Aussie are coming in here, with automatic PR status given by NZ...though why they should get that escapes my logical mind)BRICS will lose couple more bricks to bad performance.
Europe will sink further into anarchy and that will be the big spoiler in the stock surge.
The UN Security Council will be expanded.
The world wide drought will push up commodity prices.
Another conflagration in the Middle East, leading to more instability for the next few years.
House Prices won't weaken in Auckland.
NZ flag will be changed.
TV3 will be taken over by Prime/Sky.
Nobel Peace Prize will be abolished.
West Indies will climb the ranking to top Cricket position.
NZ will continue to dominate Rugby.
Tax cuts and rate cuts will bring back inflation to NZ.
What garbage. Commenting on this site or any other internet forum is akin to having a letter to the editor or scholarly paper published, or even writing in the guestbook at a wedding. It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to realise that your words will be available for all to see, and attributed to you in perpetuity.
SmoKey got one prediction out of 16 nailed .... just 15 failures ...
... he has a promising future as a leading economist , methinks ....
And the one correct prognostication ? ... we're still at the top of world rugby ... and frankly , that's what matters most , isn't it ...
My prediction for New Zealand is that nothing particularly interesting will happen to our current circumstances. There will be the ongoing external influences, but in particular, rising interest rates will continue to be offset by record breaking migration inflows.
Being an election year only serves to postpone any real decision making to 2018 and barring English wishing to create his only mark as PM before his increasingly likely loss, 2018 will be the real year of decision (or indecision). I look forward to any alleged National Party leaks, but I don't think it will make any difference to the spirit of indifference we see today. Of course those who care will be all that more determined, but it will either reinforce a foregone conclusion, or be yet another puff of hot air.
I think 2017 will be relatively sluggish across the board for NZ. But next year will be the return of a number of overhyped companies both here and abroad. I think we're going to see a lot of irrational investing, ignoring fundamentals and the overall market. I think the real shows are going to be around 2020 and they are going to be spectacular.
My payment from the Govt for being unemployed/able will remain.......NIL
My TAB investments will return.............................................................NIL
My returns from the NZX/HBL...............................................................5/6%
My returns from NZX/RBC....................................................................WHO WOULD KNOW
My returns from my penny deadfull companies NZX............................NIL
Return from term deposits .............................3%
Petrol will rise
Food prices will rise
House price in AK will remain unaffordable for FHB
House prices else where will rise insignificantly
Car prices will rise
Wages will remain low
English will remain PM
Tourism will falter,
Another earthquake likely,
Trump to annoy millions no matter what he does.
a couple of nz companies will have breakout years on the world stage as they expand (not xero)
interest rates will continue to rise and you wont get any mortgage under 5 %
the FED will raise once then hold (signal 3 for next year)
Trump WILL impose a duty on imports from certain countries
house prices will continue to rise with this government doing nothing
immigration will continue upwards
WP will become kingmaker
added arise sir JK in the queens birthday honors and will fly to England to have the queen bestow the award
I can't see National losing the 2017 election with the Labour-Greens alliance led by Andrew Little who couldn't win a seat in New Plymouth twice.
Winston Peters said Labour's alliance with the Greens has damaged them.
Winston Peters past views on not working with the Greens also surely makes National very likely to win a 4th term.
I can't see Labour losing the 2017 election with Bill leading National. This is the guy who led National to their worst election loss ever at 21% of the party vote, and that was before he was caught double dipping his entitlements. Talking of electorate seats, it seems Bill has already admitted defeat for his party in the Mount Albert seat, and would rather not give the electorate any other choice but Labour. That is on the tail of two other by-election upsets this term.
I don't recall Winston recently saying he would have any trouble working with Labour/Greens now. Mostly he has been complaining about what National has been up to.
I disagree. Andrew Little is less popular in polls for Prime Minister than Winston Peters & couldn't win a electorate seat in New Plymouth. Andrew Little would probably be the first NZ Prime Minister in recent history to not have an electorate seat.
National is still polling at close to 50% under Bill English. Bill English taking over as PM from John Key hasn't changed the minds of people who voted for National at the last election.
Bill English has an electorate seat of his own. Andrew Little is a List MP. Labour are going further to the Left with the Greens.
In 2002 Helen Clark led the Labour party to victory big difference to now as she isn't leading the party anymore.
Considering the Greens negative attitude on Donald Trump winning the U.S. Presidential election I can't see them working with NZ First who said Trump would win.
With the split in the vote of the Left. A Labour Government would be just as much dependent on the Greens,NZ First,Maori-Mana parties to get bills passed as National has been over the last 8 years with the 4 seats of Act,United Future & Maori party.
The USA is already at fullish employment and Trump wishes to slow or reverse immigration and start spending big on infrastructure. Starting a trade war as well doesn't make sense in those circumstances. So I am somewhat positive that Trump will not be an economic disaster. US interest rates are likely to rise and NZ may well follow suit. Staff shortages here will really start to bite pressuring the hospitality industry among others, but start to lift wage inflation which would be a good thing. Assuming the Nats hold the line a little on immigration then property prices should be stable. Bill English is talking steady as she goes with some focus on infrastructure spend. While I would advocate him being much more bold still, broadly the policies seem correct. National to win handily although hopefully Little will inspire a competitive opposition. Corporate profits should be okay although will need to be to justify current valuations. Mostly a positive outlook then .
Trump will be the most successful President in 2017 as Stocks have risen to record levels since he was elected.
Australian Banks continue to strangle New Zealand business with their recent capital lending restrictions and xenaphobic policy on overseas income will stop the Auckland Unitary plan in it's tracks.
Auckland's Property market will spring back from the auction room funeral results from February 2017 as immigration and migration to Auckland swells to record numbers.
Wrong. 4 Chinese Banks have already set up camp in New Zealand so Australian Banks lending restriction won't make much difference to foreigners finding lending pathways in New Zealand.
The Auckland unitary plan is being stopped by "NIMBY baby boomers" not Australian Banks.
Election: labor, greens colilition will get a lot closer than people think but winston will hold the balance of power. He will side with national.
Property prices will level in Auckland and slowly start to platoue in the rest if the country ( 2018 )
The media focus will start to turn from high house prices to immigration numbers.
Fuel prices will slowly rise.
Interest rates will rise a bit but not as much ad currently predicted.
Trump will cut immigration but most of his taffif talk on Chinese goods will just be all talk, maybe a couple of media hyped moves but nothing of substance.
Tourism will keep growing.
Share market will rise say 3% but the jitters will start coming late in the year.
My prediction is the Auckland housing market will continue to fall gradually as Kiwis realize that foreign buyers have trailed off due to the 'Trump Effect' and they shouldn't be paying for massively over inflated house prices for glorified sheds. If you don't believe me, that this is happening then go take a look at the latest auction listings and results.
How much it will drop by is too early to tell at this stage; if Trump follows through with his election promises then we're looking at quite a big drop of over -20%. If he's full of hot air is a suspect he is over introducing tariffs on imports, then it will probably drop by -10% and the market will remain subdued.
Though we need our housing market to drop to take the heat out of the NZD, so I could almost start to like Mr Trump (I did say almost).
Post fact trump era will herald in choppy markets
Wholesale rates will increase by 150-200bps; retail mortgage rates will no longer have 4s at the front while the long terms will have 6s
Auckland house prices (for actual sales) will fall 5-10%
Australia will look relatively more appealing economically so net migration will be down to 50k for 12m ended Dec 17.
The lions will win the series after 3abs are yellow carded in the final game for allegedly dodgy tackles
Ok, i through in a fake one there....
Trump will be stable as. Once congress passes a law that Presidents cant use twitter.
.. sheeeeesh ! ... child's play ... go out on a limb here , add some pizzazz to the prediction ...
Steven Joyce will get hit in the face by an inflatable dildo when a 150 kg transexual who is wearing it as a strap-on falls out of the second floor window of a fast food joint in Karangahape Road and lands on him , walking below !
... now , that's a prediction !
moa man : During the presidential race vs Hillary Clinton , Donald Trump bailed more often than the passengers on the Titanic ...
... he just repeated " I did not say that ! " ...
And got clean away with it ... but don't get me wrong , I am impressed .... for sheer chutzpah , for naked ability to totally deny his previously publicly stated and You-Tubed positions , no one does it better than the Don ...
My prediction that JK would resign after the last election happened, but my timing was slightly premature. I now predict that drug use worldwide and in NZ will increase, the "war on terror" will continue to fail, few countries will meet their ineffectual voluntary Paris agreement emissions targets and global heating will accelerate, eventually swamping all concerns over Auckland house prices. Oh, and the rich will get richer.
Dairy prices will correct sharply based on supply side response from the northern hemisphere and China imposing non tariff barriers as a result of NZ siding with the US on South China Sea issues.
Sheep prices will remain depressed (a gimme)
A twitter war between Trump and Kim Jong Un will see North Korea become the epicentre of international tensions.
NZ First will surge to 18% at the election by picking up blue collar Labour voters, regional National voters and young voters affected by mass immigration on both their wages and house prices. Winston will side with National after winning significant concessions on cutting immigration, limiting foreign investment and overturning race based legislation.
Rising inflation and interest rates will see highly indebted property speculators and FHBs head for the exits.
ABs beat the Lions 2-1.
National ~45%
Labour/Greens ~40% (-2% if TOP is estabilished)
NZ First ~12%
Mana 1 seat
Maori 0 seats
United Future 1 seat
Act 0 Seats
TOP Party (if exists): 0 seats, 2% party vote
Winnie has balance of power and demands to be Prime Minister
National entertains idea but will not move on NZ First Immigration policies
NZ first goes with Labour/Greens/Mana with a Little/Winnie Co Leadership
Vancouver house prices down 20%, Melbourne down 10%, Auckland basically flat.
Australia will go into recession.
Trump and China will butt heads - outcome unpredictable.
Too early to predict election. If English continues to do nothing on housing, immigration, and social services, National will lose. If he can sell the country on a bold new evidence-based policy, probably win. My advice: fix immigration settings, steal kiwibuild policy, and cancel 1 bil new prison and spend instead on policies that keep people out of jail - commit to bringing incarceration rate down to OECD average in 10-20 years. Cancel unhelpful knee jerk policies like 3 strikes. However, would need a strong sales job - not sure English can deliver.
Astute market participants like Peter hall don't quit because they "know" what's going to happen. The last 8 odd years has distorted any sort of financial common sense to the degree that I doubt anyone of us has any real idea what's going to happen!
Mr Hall, who also declined to comment, is said to be seeking a break from investing for personal reasons having found market conditions unsuited to his style and feeling increasingly uncomfortable with the direction politics is taking given his strong ideologies. Mr Hall controls a more than 40 per cent interest in (Hunter Hall International), of which he was also chief executive, meaning his own wealth suffers the most. Mr Hall's biggest investment victories, earning Hunter Hall hundreds of millions in profits. He first bought (Sirtex) when it was at $3.64 - it has gone to $39
http://www.afr.com/markets/peter-hall-resigns-from-hunter-hall-role-201…
the TOP party will have more success at framing the debate at the election than gaining votes. There will be no dirty politics type event this cycle.
Auckland house prices will drop in some months, and increase in others, both events attracting hundreds of comments on this site. People will continue to manipulate the data to prove whatever theory they are pushing.
People will continue to fret about overseas events, none of which will have any huge impact on NZ. Trump will cause some major diplomatic incident before June. China will remain a mystery. Europe will continue to unravel. Another photogenic assassin will kill someone to make a political statement.
Milk prices will rise. Farmers will nonetheless continue to ask for handouts.
Not enough houses will be built in Auckland. Instead more people will start leaving, increasing prices in the more Auckland like regions.
Interest rates will rise here for the next two years. After this point either war or ECB collapse will create significant disruption which will have an impact.
House prices will stay high or increase due to low interest rates.
Inequality will increase and the majority of kiwis will get poorer as household debt increases while inflation stays relatively low.
Unless there is a nuclear war or NZ is invaded 2017 will be a boring year.
National will win the election....just.
The English speaking, so called "global cities", which are really just international transit hubs will continue to be hot property. Auckland being one of these will see house prices stable for 2017. Satellite cities like Hamilton will continue to rise in price moderately but will also expand. Proximity to the transit hubs will be seen internationally as the next best thing.
There will be moves by governments to restrict Internet freedom. The real war for human freedom will take place here. More laws will be posited to try and criminalise thoughts and opinions. Social media companies and search engines will try to accommodate meddling governments. There will be massive blow back on those trying to do this as alternatives sprout up all over the Internet.
The mainstream media has been rightfully called out and been badly, possibly fatally, mauled in 2016. They will have to change in order to survive. No one cares about the "opinions" of the mainstream media anymore, they are just a joke and boring and pretentious as hell. For sport people will be watching like hawks at everything they say and do to detect fake news.
I predict all MPs of all persuasions, will persuade each other to take a pay rise.
Banks will make a killing, either way, but will never see the inside of a prison cell.
Houses will rise and fall with the tides, as Global Climate change ...increases.
Low lying Real Estate Agents will flip just about anything. 4% will never be enough, unless multiplied.
Lawyers will take a larger share of all transactions, tis their god given right.
Insurance Companies will take a bigger cut of the action, but will run for cover as larger waves hit.
Interest may change as markets rise and fall and exchanges rates flip about.
Bankers will rub their hands raw, but with glee.
Middle age spread, will reduce due to the price of butter, milk and Manuka honey and petrol as the average person will have to walk to work in Auckland, from their house in Whangarei
China cups will break. Rhinos will become extinct as they keep pulling their horns in. Populations will there for diminish. No new houses required.
Councils and land bankers will pull their finger out, way to late in the picture.
Bloggers will come to blows about houses as skiting and twittering about Real Estate, becomes a vast subject of eternal glory.....end of story.
Credit where credit is due, will become a problem of monu-mental proportions.
Ooooh it's looking like that Vancouver tax is really starting to bite their property market now: -
Prices plunging: Houses selling well below asking, some under $1M
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/prices-plunging-houses-selling-well-below-asking-s…
From your linked article:
The latest report, issued Friday, said the benchmark price of single-family detached homes sold across the Lower Mainland was $1.2 million last month. In Metro Vancouver the benchmark was $1.5 million for detached homes, which represents a 2.2 per cent decline from last month, but a 23 per cent increase from November 2015.
The benchmark for all types of residential properties sold in Metro Vancouver was also down from October at $908,300. That number is 20.5 per cent higher than the benchmark in November 2015. The full report is available on the REBGV website.
"The long run for Vancouver is this is going to be an expensive place where rich people live," Davidoff said.
"Rents have been rising dramatically except at the very highest end over the last year. I don't think Vancouver is heading for super affordability. Probably people who buy today, 20 to 30 years down the road are going to be just fine."
Doesn't sound too bad.
Really Zachary did you watch the news video? Did you miss the report on a Vancouver house recently purchased in August 16 for $1,359k and just sold in Dec 16 for $800k and you think this isn't a significant drop?? Or how about the one listed for $2.5 million and sold for $1.65 million that's a significant price slide ouch to me.
Times are changing for B.C since August 2016, you know when they brought the Foreign Buyer tax law in. So looking back over to 2015 is a bit pointless.
Yes really CJ099. This is yet again one of those articles where the headline doesn't match the content. The data shows what appears to be the normal ebb and flow of property prices. If you bother to study the linked documents rather than being mesmerized by the video you will see that :
Home buyer and seller activity remains near historical averages in the Metro Vancouver housing market.
“Demand, relative to supply, for detached homes is lower right now than demand for townhomes and apartments,” Morrison said. “This is causing prices to remain stable, or flat, for townhomes and apartments, while detached homes are seeing modest month-over-month declines.”
The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,511,100. This represents a 2.2 per cent decline compared to last month and a 23 per cent increase compared to November 2015.
Sales of apartment properties reached 1,200 in November 2016, an increase of 1.9 per cent
compared to the 1,178 sales in October 2016 and a 22.7 per cent decrease compared to November 2015.The benchmark price of an apartment property is $512,100. This is unchanged from last month and is an 18 per cent increase compared to November 2015.
This all gives a distinct impression of a fairly stable market. Apartment sales have increased. Not one that is hot but certainly not one where prices are "plunging". To be honest I expected it to be worse than this so am quite heartened, as an investor, by these figures. Thanks for that!
Also the house that sold for 800K looks to be problematic. I don't think it ever sold for 1.36M as the article states:
That home, located in Renfrew Heights, was initially listed at $1.36 million in August..
Actually Zachary I did dig in to the figures, and they're still reporting significant sales declines and in some cases as I listed above, sharp price declines. And they do report recent 'month on month sales/price declines'.
Remember these figures are from a Real Estate Board and therefore some what sugar coated, as the last thing they want to see is Buyers being brave enough to put in what was referred to in the 2008 crash as 'Low ball' or 'Cheeky Offers' which is starting to happen.
The Press obviously will want to get to the marrow of the story and report what is actually happening.
Now as a Property Investor you shouldn't be too worried about a property crash as long as you haven't over stretched yourself. Having been through a property crash before in the UK, I was able to ride out the last significant decline where prices dropped by -20% in the Greater London and Surrey areas, though it did take the best part of five years for those house prices to climb back up again.
And here's how the property crash played out: Number of sales start to fall, then listings start to restrict and people hunker down. Though not everyone is able to do that, so number of listing start to rise and accumulate, they sit there for 3 to 6 months, then Buyers place low ball offers (More realistic to what they can afford), Property prices fall, Oh and btw, so do rental prices due to Sellers switching to renting out their property rather than selling.
At the moment we’re witnessing a bit of a global property sales/price cooling in major cities, even in Auckland. Most of which I think is related to your beloved Mr Trump, bless his golden wig.
Sorry I couldn't resist (Donald on China): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs
I still maintain that you are writing about something you 'imagine' will happen in the future as if it is happening now. The impression I get is that you really want it to be so.
I'm just analyzing the actual stories you link to. Vancouver detached property went up 23% since November 2015, dropped 2.2% in the last month is the actual gist of the story. Not really "Prices plunging". House didn't sell for 1.34M in August but was listed for 1.34M is the real story.
Now if prices continue to drop over the next few months I will happily say, "good on you mate, you called it". In the meantime I am happy to read the articles and comment on whether or not your interpretation is accurate or not. I actually enjoy this sort of thing. I see myself as doing a public service. Now I'm off to criticize NissanGTR over something similar.
Honestly Zachary; More and more I have to assume you're an Estate Agent, why else would you want to talk up the market so much and act as though it's just business as usual, when it's clearly starting to slide??
And in regards to your comment: Now if prices continue to drop over the next few months I will happily say, "good on you mate, you called it". Yes I will hold you to that. :P
Interest rates will continue gradually increasing.
National will form a coalition with NZ First and Winston will be Minister of Foreign Affairs
Charles will become king.
Massive earthquake will cause widespread damage in lower North Island.
Kim will divorce Kanye.
Fuel, groceries, electricity costs will all increase.
Goff will hire Len Brown as a consultant to Auckland Council. Stating that Len brings a wealth of experience.
Goff will backtrack and fire Len Brown due to the public outcry. But will pay a $50k exit fee which Goff will say "I'm not happy about it but it was out of my control".
Goff will introduce regional fuel tax and then backtrack due to public outcry.
Goff will increase rates by an average of 3%.
In 2017:
- The Feds won't be able to lift rates 3 x
- Trump will only carry through few of his election promises
- Europe will continue to struggle in a paralysis of status quo
- Auckland house prices will stagnate (0% growth, no crash, no price appreciation)
- There will be a continued shift to the right worldwide
- There will be no clear winner in the NZ election hence Peters will be kingmaker again
I hope you are wrong but fear you may not be. We are a soft country and have let people peddle their warped ideals with no consequences , and all it will take is a lone wolf not being watched
http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/81376652/man-sentenced-for-islamic-stat…
#About 40 people are being monitored in New Zealand for their ties to Isis but the most threatening are under constant watch, which means they're unlikely to be able to get anywhere near executing a terrorist attack#
we are too soft as a country, someone please tell me why she is allowed to stay in NZ after her sentence is complete
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/88112298/air-nz-plane-hijacker-as…
She told her lawyer of being far from home in a country where no-one helped her or cared for her while she was on the run from a man who wanted to own her.
Her statement said: "The New Zealand Government has committed crimes against me by bringing me into the country under false pretences and selling me like an animal to a rich man.
- Bill English will likely be PM and yes Winston P will play a significant role.
- AKL central house prices will post net positive result likely between 4-6%. North Shore, Manukau and Waitakere will mostly stagnate.
- More housing projects will be cancelled.
- Banks will use every opportunity to raise interest rates. Interest rate increase will cause an increase in rents. However the increase in rent will be delayed and obvious later in the year.
- We will continue to hear that "Smart money has already left" :)
- AKL will continue to feature as one of the top cities to live in and many will continue to scratch their head upon reading it.
- Water view project completion will make many happy.
- Air travel and petrol and will get expensive.
- Lastly, Apple will announce their entry into automotive sector and also release their best iPhone ever ;)
Central banks will continue to play games with an enfeebled global economy. Europe and Japan will continue to strive for the carrot with inept policy , China's growth will continue to falter with signs of social tension , the UK will take another downward leg down before stabilising. US 10 Y will rise to 3.00- 3.25 in 2017, but with the business cycle in its late stages the rise in interest rates will ensure a recession as housing and consumption crushed by 'inflation' fade. Interest rates will again turn globally lower end 2017.With multiple markets enriched by 8 years of rising asset prices, the likes of Australia and New Zealand will need to lower interest rates to maintain the illusion a little longer.and ensure those with ears stuffed with dollar notes not to hear anything different. Graham Wheeler will not seek a second term , DTI will not break sweat. The NZD will reach parity with AUD by 2Q . The USD late 2017 will be the currency to own , as China devalues and drags the world into a cyclonic currency battle.
As at 31/12/2017 I predict:
- TNX (US 10-year treasury rate) @ > 3%
- Gold @ > $USD1,400 oz
- Silver @ > $USD25 oz
- Oil @ > $USD70
- Dow Jones @ 1.22; & on a 12-month lag (at 31/12/2018) NZ experiences a record swing in immigration numbers with heavy migration to Australia.
- £GBP:$NZD > 2.35; £GBP outperforms all majors on increasing continental Europe turmoil.
- NZX50 $NZD10 & become largest market cap on NZX.
- Fonterra payout on 2017/2018 forecast at $9.15 despite large Danone settlement timed to coincide with high WMP cycle.
- Gareth Morgan TOP > 5%, National led coalition to make taxation concessions.
- Auckland average house price per QV drops from $NZD1,051,387 in NOV16 to $USD300
- BHP Billiton Limited > $AUD35
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia $AUD77
Quite bearish unfortunately but some great opportunities in selected asset classes.
I would have thought politicians are reasonably stuck in their ways .....and thus, are reasonably predicable..??
eg.. National in the last 8 yrs..... same with Obama and the Democrats.. etc..
eg. ... the metaphor of .... "kicking the can down the road".
I apply the same rationale to Central Bankers...also.
As consummate politician Jean Claude Juncker reminded us "When it becomes serious, you have to lie' Now that gems came from some time ago, yet here we are in 2017 still wondering what Junker will do next!
" Jean-Claude Juncker, spent years as Luxembourg’s prime minister secretly blocking EU efforts to tackle tax avoidance by multinational corporations, leaked documents reveal."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/01/jean-claude-juncker-bl…
Generally I find the world a fascinating place to watch, of course I am in the same poop as the rest of you. All depends on how well Trump and the Republican house leaders / party get on. If Trump and the Republican houses gel, and they move fast, their work will tip the US into a severe recession and then the world. I suspect they will start by forcing the Fed the raise the OCR, but as they chop the social security net and obamacare going for "savings" they will do a Greece I think.
Otherwise happy new year!
OCR hikes and interest rates will be heading up.
Investors will be cautions and property prices flattening especially in Auckland once the interest rises start.
% First home buyers will increase
NZX50 will not see 2016 growth but import companies will do well.
NZX will do well overall and agri sector will get great crops but nz$ will remain high.
National will win
W Peters will shake up the election
World trade to continue to slide, our economy to be bolstered by floods of migrants desperate for a safe haven, more interruptions of digital way of life as hacking becomes the new war by 'error' messages.
Many Euro banks to begin their final slide to extinction with bail-ins becoming the catch-phrase on everyone lips by year end. Stock buy backs to stall, with sharemarket correction wiping out more and more retirement plans. NZ dollar weaker, rivers dirtier!
The biggest factor for 2017 is one crazy, unpredictable and arguably brilliant man named Donald Trump.
I am in the USA now, and most people I talk to are very optimistic about Trump, and those who are not are generally the young SJWs who don't really hold much real power in the world anyway.
How Trump deals with China and NZ is a huge nail biter to me.
If he decides to close economic relations with China, will he ask us to do the same or face being closed out of the USA?
I believe NZ will be put in a very tough position this year, and I do not envy Bill English for having to try and placate Trump and maintain our relations with the USA and China.
I predict this election at home will be an explosive one, it will be a battle of National vs The Rest.
I think the key battle grounds are going to be housing and agriculture (spearheaded by the Greens, focusing on pollution from the dairy industry, and animal welfare).
Lab/Greens/NZ First will launch a divisive campaign calling for massive cuts to migration (but with a boost of the refugee intake to please the SJWs), and to ban any future dairy conversions, and look at reducing water rights and nutrient leaching limits nationwide to appease the blame everything on dairy farming brigade.
I think National will still retain a comfortable margin over the opposition, due to the shocking confirmation, that Andrew Little is indeed, a robot.
Other predictions I am reasonably confident in making are:
Dairy prices will peak at around $6 and taper off a little to a $5.50 forecast for 17/18.
Beef prices will continue to steadily taper down as extra beef animals from the last 2 years of dairy downturn start to hit the market.
Sheep farmers will not get any good news.
Auckland house prices will be flat due to uncertainty around the NZ election and NZs future immigration settings.
Most of the rest if the country will see growth, but slowing later in the year.
The World will continue largely as it has for the last few years. Trump will cause diplomatic tension, but the checks and balances in the US political system will render him impotent. Strangely though, although Trump will not run for re-election in 2020 (citing some obviously fabricated personal issue), the replacement republican candidate, moderate and palatable, will hold the White House.
Back home, Winston will make a hash of his run at next year's election (finally his last), and Labour will undergo another leadership change after yet another defeat (Ardern will ultimately lead the party to victory, but that's for my 2020 predictions). English will be rolled by the end of 2018 - a sinister battle brought by the likes of Coleman and Collins, but from the rubble, Joyce will emerge the victor.
There will continue to be vast bias in the coverage of minor terrorist events affecting the blessed 'West', while atrocities of far greater magnitude are brushed aside.
My biggest prediction: the accelerated demise of the traditional news media.
Happy 2017 everyone!
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