A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; No rate changes today, Truckometer slows near peak, commodity prices rise, car sales in clouds, VW execs face criminal charges, swaps lower, NZD up

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes to these either.

'A VARIABLE SPEED ZONE'
ANZ released its December Truckometer series today. The availability of credit and labour are starting to constrain growth. Given the economy is now attempting to grow faster than it sustainably can, ANZ says it expects to see growth moderate over the course of 2017 "from a gallop to a canter". Both the Heavy Truck, and Light Truck indexes are growing around +3% year-on-year. However, looking at the December levels, the Heavy Traffic Index continues to trend upward, while the upward trend in the Light Traffic Index flattened out, suggesting a moderation in growth as we approach the middle of 2017.

A COMEBACK BY DAIRY HIDES OTHER SLIPPAGE
The ANZ Commodity Price Index rose +0.7% month-on-month in December, largely due to the continuing comeback story of dairy prices over the second half of 2016. The December rise in the index was the eighth in a row, driving it +19% higher over the course of 2016. In NZD, the Index posted a +2.0% lift in December from the prior month. This was the fifth month-on-month rise in a row and the fourth monthly gain above +2%. Non-dairy commodity prices were the disappointment, falling -1.9% month-on-month. Only 3 of the 12 non-dairy commodities in the index rose in December, with falls centred mainly in the meat and fibre group. However, many sectors saw price improvement throughout the course of 2016, though NZD moves continued to weigh on local returns in many cases.

A GROWING FLEET
Sales of used imports rose strongly in December to 13,181 and taking the annual level to 149,526. This annual level is the highest since 2006. The December level is a record high for that month. These high import levels are in addition to the sales of new cars, which themselves totaled 102,647 in 2016. So all up, we added a remarkable 252,173 additional cars to the roads in 2016, plus another 60,000 plus commercial vehicles. No wonder some roads get crowded. There are 3.6 mln cars on New Zealand roads, and we scrap only about 115,000 of them each year.

ARRESTS AND FINES FOR VW
And speaking of cars, Volkswagen today agreed to plead guilty to three criminal counts and pay a US$2.8 bln criminal penalty as a result of the company’s long-running scheme to sell approximately 590,000 diesel vehicles in the US by using a defeat device to cheat on emissions tests mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency and the California Air Resources Board, and lying and obstructing justice to further the scheme, the US Justice Department announced today. Six people are to be arrest, one is already in custody. In addition, they have agreed to pay another US$1.5 bln to settle related civil cases.

WHOLESALE RATES LOWER
NZ swap rates are lower by -4 to -5 bps across the board today. The 90 day bank bill is down -1 bp and now at 1.98%. This follows the slip on Wall Street overnight where the benchmark UST 10yr fell and is now at 2.35%.

NZ DOLLAR FIRMER
The currency market has marked down the USD today following a news conference by Donald Trump. The NZD is at 70.6 USc. On the cross rates, it is at 94.8 AUc, and at 66.7 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is at 76.2. Check our real-time charts here.

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