Here's my summary of the key events from over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news we are slipping in the world of innovation.
Firstly in the US, house building starts dropped for the third month in a row in May and are -2.4% lower than the same month a year earlier. And that is despite housing completions being +14.6% higher on the same basis. The worry in that builders are starting fewer housing units in response to softer demand signals. Building permits issued are also down a bit less than -1%.
Political uncertainty may be behind the hesitation. The latest survey of consumer sentiment shows a fall, but the surveyers note that even though it was a modest -2.6 pt drop, that is masking a steeper fall as the month on June wore on and they put it down to the unsettling and partisan events in Washington having a flow-on effect on consumer spending plans. A hesitant American consumer can have ripple effects on the world economy.
Last week's US Federal Reserve rate hike actually came with one dissenter. It is not the first time he has dissented and he wrote about his reasons over the weekend and they essentially hinge around the inflation track and a belief the Phillips Curve signals are not being reflected in the actual data - something Janet Yellen was at pains to point out are 'noisy'.
And staying in the US and around the theme of innovation, we should note that tech powerhouse Amazon has acquired a leading supermarket chain there, Whole Foods. Amazon is embarking on a new way to sell groceries and this deal seriously jump-starts the process. The new way involves checkout-less buying and if it works (most Amazon initiatives seem to work amazingly well), the future supermarket will be one where you walk in, place items in your shopping cart, and walk out, with no checkout line at all. You pay via your Amazon account. The developments after that then get more futuristic.
The annual Global Innovation Index report was released late last week. And New Zealand has slipped four places to 21st in the world. A small consolation is that we are ahead of Australia who are 23rd. In Asia we rank 5th ahead of China and Australia, but behind Singapore (#7 worldwide), Korea (#11), Japan (#14) and Hong Kong (#16). We do rank #1 in the sub-groups of "Political stability", "Ease of Starting a Business "Ease of Getting Credit" and "Protecting Minority Shareholders". But we are let down in the areas of "Graduates in Science and Engineering" (#66), "Gross Capital Formation" (#53), "GDP per unit of Energy Use" (#75), "FDI Inflows" (#156") and "GDP per Capita" (#59). We score #4 for "Government Effectiveness", and #3 for "Regulatory Quality". Embarrassingly, our public sector scores hold us up, our private sector scores let us down.
In France, it looks like centerist President Macron is headed for majority support in their parliamentary elections. Both the hard left and the hard right, including the National Front, will almost be wiped out.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield is still at 2.15%.
The price of oil will start the week up just marginally from this time Friday at just under US$45 a barrel, while the Brent benchmark is now just under US$47.50.
And the price of gold will start unchanged at US$1,254/oz. Gold bulls are still out there, however.
The Kiwi dollar is a little stronger today. Against the greenback it is at 72.5 USc. On the cross rates we are at 95.2 AU¢, and 64.8 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is now at 76.7 and a fifteen week high.
If you want to catch up with all the changes on Friday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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