Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.
DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.
WHY NEW HOUSES COST SO MUCH
A Government-commissioned report has found that land use regulations add about +56% to the cost of houses in Auckland. 'Prices far outweigh costs in most major NZ cities' it says. More here.
FEWER ON BENEFITS
7.3% of our working age population is on a (means-tested) benefit, according to data released today by MSD. That is the lowest level since this series began in 1998. It reached a high point of 13.9% in December 1999, fell to 7.6% in March 2008, rose during the GFC and has fallen steadily since. The current level has 118,800 on Jobseeker Support, and 157,600 on the three other main benefits, mainly Sole Parent Support, and Supported Living Payments. (But don't mention the approx. 730,000 on the National Super benefit that is not means tested. Having said that, most of those will not be of a working age of 15 to 64 years.)
NOT AS POPULAR
Today's $200 mln Government tender for 2025 bonds resulted in a weighted average yield of 2.82% a somewhat surprising +20 bps rise from the similar event last month. This time the coverage ratio was only 2.0x compared with 4.3x in June.
RISING FASTER
Industry lobby group Retail NZ has released the results of its annual survey on wages across the sector and, on average, they say wages have increased by +5.1% over the last year, from $20.73 to $21.80 per hour. The minimum wage increased +3.3% on 1 April 2017 going from $15.25 to $15.75. That means the retail sector average has risen from +35.9% above the minimum wage to +38.4% above in 2017. Their survey also asked respondents to indicate other ways employers "rewarded" their employees and found that 90% of them offered some form of additional benefits, such as discounts, commissions or "training opportunities".
MORE FULL-TIME, LESS PART-TIME
Even though their unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6% in June, Australia has achieved its ninth straight month of job gains, with +14,000 new jobs added to their economy. Full-time employment grew by +62,000 jobs, while part-time employment decreased by -48,000. (The New Zealand data for June unemployment won't be released until Wednesday, August 2. As at March, our jobless rate was 4.9%.)
YIELDS MAKE NO SENSE WITHOUT CAPITAL GAINS
In Sydney house prices and rents are still rising, even if slightly slower than in the past. Data out today for June shows median house prices at AU$1,178,400 (NZ$1,274,000) and for units/apartments the median is AU$758,000 (NZ$819,500). But interestingly, rents are the same for both types of dwellings - AU$550 per week (NZ$595). Gross yields (that is, annual rent as a proportion of the median prices) are 2.4% for houses and 3.8% for units.
NO PROGRESS
The United States and China failed earlier today to agree on major new steps to reduce the American's goods trade deficit with China, worsening the US's economic and security relations with Beijing. The talks, which were supposed to be the first of a series, ended with canceled news conferences, no joint statement and no new announcements on US market access to China. Without progress, and taking the US President at his previous word (?), the Americans look like they are on a path to a trade war with China. Or, if he backs down, another Presidential failure.
WHOLESALE RATES STOP FALLING
Wholesale swap rates have risen by +1 bp across the whole curve today. The 2-10 curve is now at +1.09%, and slightly flatter than it has been over the past two weeks. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.94%.
NZ DOLLAR STABLE
The Kiwi dollar is little changed from this time yesterday at 73.4 USc. On the cross rates have remained similarly stable, trading now at 92.5 AUc and at 63.8 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 unchanged at 76.6. Bitcoin has risen slightly today to US$2,327, up +1.8% from this time yesterday.
You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

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