A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; TD rates trend lower, population edges up; median age edges down; Auckland scores better but ranks lower, swaps up, NZD up

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank and BNZ have reduced a range of term deposit rates, following Kiwibank's rise for its 200 day 'special'.

ROUNDING ERROR GROWTH
New Zealand's population is pushing closer to the 5 mln mark, with the addition of the equivalent of the population of the Waikato region since 2013. Net migration is the main driver. We estimate our population will touch 4.9 mln at the end of this month. Still, the whole country is only the size of a few suburbs of a major international city, an international rounding error. (What's the population of the USA? 320 mln? 330 mln? something like that - and because it doesn't matter what one you choose - they are both about right - you realise why the 'rounding error' comment is accurate.)

WHY IT MATTERS
The median age of New Zealand's population is now at a nine year low at 36.9 years. For males it is 35.6 years and a ten year low. For females it is 38.2 yrs and a seven year low. These demographic changes are important. They mean that the working age population is growing fast enough to push back the need for a rise to the retirement age for some time yet. And our workers-per-beneficiary ratio (even if you include those on NZ Super) is not getting worse; in fact it has been getting marginally more sustainable, and over 2x now for the first time since 2006.

OVER-REACTION?
Investors in Tokyo today are realising they overdid their -2% sell-off yesterday and mid morning the Nikkei 225 is showing a +1.2% gain on the day. But both Hong Kong and Shanghai are both continuing their falls, down another -0.6% so far.

ANOTHER GOVT. PAY EQUITY CLAIM SETTLED
The pay equity claim for 329 support workers who work with very young children in early childhood and primary schools has been agreed, giving some a rise of up to +30%. Support workers are currently paid between $16.77 and $19.87 an hour. The settlement would see the minimum hourly rate move to $21.67 with a new top step of $24.73 for those who have done four to nine years’ service. Support workers with ten or more years’ service on 1 July 2018, will move to a new rate of $25.70 an hour.

SLIPPING DESPITE IMPROVED SCORE
For the first time since 2009, Auckland has not been ranked in the top ten "most liveable" cities in the world. Last year it was #8. In 2018 it has dropped to twelfth. The Economist Intelligence Unit is keeping score on this one. Auckland's raw score actually rose; it is just that scores for other cities rose faster. It seems that liveablity is improving across the first world.

CONFIDENCE UP, SENTIMENT DOWN (?)
In Australia, business confidence edged up in July, according to a NAB survey. But business sentiment is falling away. Retail is their weakest sector, but there was a jump in their construction sectors, mainly because of a rising pipeline of work for residential and infrastructure projects.

MISSED
China data missed expectations today in two key sectors. Retail sales came in +8.8% in July, and below June +9.0% and the expected +9.1%. Industrial production rose +6.0%, also below expectations. Despite these results that disappointed, they will do very well if they can arrest a slide in coming months.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are up +3 bps across the curve today. The UST 10yr is also firmer at 2.88%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday while their 2-10 curve is marginally lower again, now at just under +26 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.59% (up +3 bps today), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.59% (up +1 bp), while the NZ Govt 10 yr is now at 2.61%, recovering all of yesterday's 6 bps drop. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 1.90%.

BITCOIN DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$5,981 and down -3.7% from this time yesterday. It last slipped below US$6,000 on June 27, and prior to that it was at this level in November 2017 (on the way up).

NZD FIRMS
The NZD is firming just slightly today. We are now just on 66 USc. On the cross rates we are at 90.6 AUc and the euro is at 57.8 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 back at 70 even.

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