Opinion: Why families migrate - is it higher incomes, or affordable housing?

Wow,beat Woll!We came to NZ  5yrs ago,due to a recruitment drive in the UK.But,we are still renting,as we could see the telltale signs-sales in shops starting-builders looking for work(as labourers)-units closing-empty shops-RE agents telling us never a better time to buy!Houses never go down!!And this was all before the GFC.

Having suffered 2 recessions in the UK,the writings on the wall.

So,we came for the lifestyle-maybe realistic house in the future,we can wait.As the great oracle once said "If you have no pactience,property investing will not work for you,you have to learn to sit on your hands!-O.N."

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 The can be easy shifted from Southland to Northland or opposite from AU to NZ.

I'm expecting Australia to 'wise up' to the lure of affordable housing before we do...

This has implications.

Ours will be some naff obligation placed upon a McMansion developer - to provide x number of 'affordable' houses. Not a wholesale revision aimed at ensuring that the mortgage is sorted e.g. in ten years, and actually you quite like the house you're in!

Still think this is the best drawcard a country could have.   

"In New Zealand, we don't have such a relief valve - all local authorities here have similar tight restrictions - so the only option Kiwis have is to leave the country"

Have you not seen prices and land availability in the regions?

You can get a section in South Invercargill for $10,000 and that's for a flat quarter acre (you can probably find one for a $1 if you look hard enough).  In Dunedin you can get a cheap hill site for under $20,000, again you can probably get one for nearly free if you look hard enough. 

So why is there no significant migration to Southland, Otago or other areas?  And why is there a large migration to Sydney, Melbourne etc where the average house is double an expensive NZ house? 

Is the theory wrong, or are lifestyle, location and income actually more important.

We desperately need to move quickly on this one to reduce our overall cost of living and to enhance our international competiveness.Our policies to date have been just plan dumb. The cost of housing in this country is insane the associated debt burden is a huge unproductive drag on our economic prospects and attractiveness to quality migrants. Furthermore the underlying social cost of inflated housing prices is huge.

Nobody lives in this country relatively speaking we have land galore especially in the Sth Island.

Radical thinking is required as to attract smart people here. Many countries overall quality of life is beginning  to deteriorate. Widespread social unrest will become the norm as debt crippled governments are forced to reduce services and entitlements. Policy makers need to realise and accept that a strong economic rebound is not going to happen in fact the out look is to the contrary 

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The Glaeser opinion demonstrated for me the reason why economists are regarded in such low light. He presents a number of graphs which to all intents and purposes show random distributions of points. He sees trends where there clearly aren't any (Remove a couple of outliers in graphs 2 and 3 for example).  So  the whole of his argument is then undermined and rendered worthless. As for the Chaston opinion then extrapolating this result to a totally different country with different drivers, migration factors etc the whole thing becomes laughable and worthy of interest.co.nz  Oh yes ...

disco tent

discontent

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Why would a developer sell a section on outer CHC or AKL for $40k when they know they will get buyers at $180k. The only way you will ever get cheap affordable housing is if government steps in...and they aint got any money.....Here in CHC for example anywhere on outer city within 15-20 minutes city center are some of the most expensive areas in CHC..can not see any sections going there for $40k anytime soon.

We migrated from UK about 40 years ago. At that stage we were wanting to buy a bigger house in SE England for growing family. This was the era of gazumping. First house in NZ was half the price of UK house we sold and twice the size. Housing was a big part of quality of life which was the core reason for our migration.

So, let's get this right, Kiwis migrate from Whangarei or Palmerston North etc to the likes of Sydney and Melbourne because the cost of housing there is cheaper?  Is this a Tui moment?

exactly Muzza...there are some very cheap areas about 30-45 mins from chc, and no one buys there....why...people do not like to travel to far from where the work is....and perhapes some cities are very popular because...people like the environment. Go and ask a 20-30 yr old would you rather live in Melbourne or Palmerston North

Just back from a trek around the Bavarian real estate websites , as one does , and found a splendid 3 split-level home of 140 sq metres , 4 bedrooms , 790 sq m site , for 165 000 Euros ( $NZ 282 000 ) ................ When it's cheaper to buy in Europe than it is in NZ , then we really are up shit creek , aren't we !

GBH that would be the one in a small village about 100km away from nearest town  Regensburg...www.realenz.co.nz has plenty  four bedroom houses between 100-150K NZ ,came up with 10 pages of them. Guess what ..they are also in small towns or villages away from the main cities.

And beware of cheaper fringe location places when the price of oil goes up with a bang.

FCM, you seem to have a dim view of Palmy, but agree many would find Melbourne more exciting, and that's the reason they go, certainly not because of the cost of housing = that was my point!

Hane, think of the views you get in Wellington... and the wonderful breezes

I can think of numerous reasons that I would prefer Australia to NZ. The fact that their housing is even more expensive than ours is probably keeping the migration lower than it would otherwise be. If you think there are a lot of people migrating now, how high could it go if their housing was cheaper than ours as well as all the other advantages?

Smart behavior when migrating into a country that has a bubble, is to rent until it bursts. People who are smart enough to migrate, are also smart enough to work this out. I keep meeting more and more Kiwis who have returned from abroad, who are renting. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the Kiwis who go to Aussie are renting too.

One of the reasons that Houston and Dallas are population magnets within the USA while Invercargill is not within NZ, is simply the difference in the EXISTING level of development. If Wellington or Christchurch had sorted their crap out and had housing half the price of Auckland, they'd be NZ's Houston.

I suggest it would be possible over the long term, though, for Invercargill to develop the critical mass, if the rest of the country keeps up the strangulatory approach and Invercargill does not fall for it or have it imposed by a semi- totalitarian central government. (Like Oregon has). The papers of Paul Cheshire of the LSE show what 50 years of this stuff has done to Britain. They, not California, are the real "worst in the world".

The crowning insult to the people groaning under debt, forced into tiny homes, and afflicted by social pathologies (because so many young people cannot dream of affording a home and a family); is that there are NOT "benefits" to balance with these costs at all. The efficiency of urban economies is LOWER, not higher; commutes are longer on average; carbon footprints are higher, not lower.  This is because inflated land prices are a serious obstacle to efficient location decisions by households and businesses; and urban "churn" and redevelopment is reduced.  Also, the debt tied up in "land", has been diverted from productive uses; and household discretionary spending has been gutted.

Britain's house price bubbles have been running at approximately one order of magnitude of volatility ahead of California. Their next crash will total their economy. Watch. Guess what: Britain is 12% urbanised, AND have 13% of their land in "Green belts". If they moved to 17% urbanised and 8% Green belts, they could eliminate their problems. Oh, by the way, almost no-one in London except the very wealthiest, have regular close encounters with grass, trees, and gardens, in the vicinity of their homes.

Cheshire and his colleagues also calculate that these high land prices are a more powerful force for "inequality" in society, than INCOME disparities themselves as they stand.

NZ and Australia are about 1.2% urbanised and 0.8% urbanised. How about a big "DOH" to our city planners, for engineering British-style problems in the midst of abundance?

"Oh, by the way, almost no-one in London except the very wealthiest, have regular close encounters with grass, trees, and gardens, in the vicinity of their homes"

You're pullin' me plonker here Phil - parks, canal walks, allotments even.... silly thing to say.

All empty on the bank holidays...August especially.

Well have now read the article, guess I migrated to the US, in pursuit of a girl because she wanted to go home and be near family. Income and houses were not a factor at all.

Lot happen since then now I'm more a transient than a migrant. hmmmmmmmmm

Hugh, do they still walk around with guns in Texas, may be that's an attraction for a lot of good ole boys?

Always on my best behavoiur David. Back in 1980's when I was a youngster I had a contract working in Washington DC. Was based at a motel on the site of the Catholic University.  First day going to car, parked right outside motel, a couple of guys very politely asked me and a colleague to hand everything over and they pulled a gun( which wasn't so polite).Having said that, I agree Gummy that the hospitality of  many Americans is very good. We like to get to America about every 7 or so  years. Have a brother-in-law in North Carolina and he often refers to 'those genuine Texan Red Necks'  Say, where is George Bush from?