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Samurai shares; A great rotation?; Mood and momentum; Across the Tasman; Will fortune favour the brave?

Samurai shares; A great rotation?; Mood and momentum; Across the Tasman; Will fortune favour the brave?

By Amanda Morrall

With apologies to readers who care not a wit for investing, the following Take Five is a round up of views and news on just what the heck is going on with equity markets given what appears to be a turn in the tides. 

1) Samurai shares

This weekend one of our regular readers shared a rather bold prediction; that the Japanese economy would "defy the demographic gloomsterisers , and finally kick into life ..... and that the Japanese stockmarket will be the best performer of all major markets this year."

I guess the word gloomsteriser gives the author away. It's a bold call to be sure but not without basis.

For more on why Japanese stocks could prove the market Samurai of the year, check out this report by Andrew Oxlade from the Telegraph.

2) Great rotation or Wall Street Fairy Tale?

Renewed enthusiasm for the share market is spreading worldwide but is it warranted? Reuters finance writer Edward Krudy takes a closer look at the latest rally and says reason for caution prevails.

3) Mood and momentum

Closer to home, there also appears to be a schism of opinion about where the market is headed and whether the recovery is sustainable and stable or fleeting and frothy. Business Day writer Tim Hunter considers the disparate views of industry heads Sam Stubbs, CEO of Tower Investments, and Brian Gaynor, of Milford Asset Management and tries to close the gap for wary investors.

4) Across the Tasman

And for a summary of what's happening across the Tasman where the Reserve Bank is widely expected to keep the OCR on hold at 3% tomorrow, see this news report by The Age.

5) Will fortune favour the brave?

Clearly more than a few investors feel it's time to stop pussy footing around and are taking the plunge in earnest into equities. The following article from the Globe and Mail national newspaper in Canada, looks at how investors plan to spend a six figure inheritance and where. Low fee exchange traded funds overseas continue to grow in popularity.

To read other Take Fives by Amanda Morrall click here. You can also follow Amanda on Twitter @amandamorrall or at

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Great news for Marlborough...
"Wine Australia last month called for Aussie wine drinkers to "ditch that Sav Blanc from across the Tasman in favour of a top local drop" for Australia Day" Herald
Fabulous free's got to be good if Wine Australia is complaining!

Ditch subscriptions to " Wine Australia " if they're so parochial and narrow minded ....
.... few Aussie Sauvignon Blancs match the quality of those produced in Marlborough ...
But then again , few NZ red wines or fortifieds stack up against those produced in Oz . ( Pinot Noir excepted ) ..
.... seriously stoopid , " Wine Australia " !

When is someone going to start some decent low-fee ETFs in NZ? The current Smartshares' offering aren't low fees and only focus on a few companies in AU and NZ.
I would quite happily split some money across global and developing markets ETFs with fees under 0.5%.

Here, here. I'm waiting for that day too. The standard argument of course is scale, that we can't afford to offer fees on par with ETFs overseas because we're too small. As for diversity, Smartshares has indicated it will roll out several new options this year.  This is what I reported in October based on my interview with Sam Stanley (youtube link below).
To tweak the investing public's interest, Smartshares is looking to expand its ETF market in 2013 to include a range of new offerings including a commodities fund (possibly focused on gold), a fixed interest fund, an Asian high yield fund and a global equities fund.

You can get access to international ETF's via NZ based brokers - many of the brokers and Private Banks offer these to clients.
You can get access to iShares (one of the biggest providers of ETF's) on the ASX.
If you want to do this you can go thru a broker in NZ but be prepared to get hammered on brokerage and trade fees, also you will have currency movements to contend with.
Alternatively you can set up an online trading account in either Aussie or U.S. and deal direct at a fraction of the cost of going thru a broker here. There maybe some hefty minimum initial deposits to contend with.

I already buy ETFs through a UK brokerage account that I have had for years. Sending money to the UK is currently desirable from an exchange rate perspective but that may not be the case in the future. Vanguard in Australia also has some good options.
Investing overeseas has several drawbacks like tax implications and exchange rate commissions. I would rather invest from NZ if the right product was available. By that I mean a physical ETF that is well diversified and has low fees.

I read somewhere this morning that the bull market rally is based on the perception that the Euro crisis is over. To anyone wanting to leap into equities right now.... yeah good luck with that :-)

..... markets don't what for the fog to clear , and then take off .... they predict the future and behave accordingly ... only with the benefit of hindsight do we learn if they've moved appropriately ......
There are always a few grey clouds on the economic horizon ..... life goes on inspite of them ...
.... and the Eurozone is just one of the " crisis " to occupy our attention of late .... Japanese staglation / China hard-landing / USA fiscal cliffs / Ozzie miners / NZ baby formula ..
Time to feel the good vibes , Stan , and take the plunge !

Doh! too late. Market just corrected and reversed all this years banking stock gains on Euro crisis news.
Forget the plunge GBH, I won't even be sticking my toe anywhere near the water. Besides, no-one invests in equities these days unless you are one of the Skynet Algols...

Crikey , Stan ...... one ripple on the economic pond and you're screaming " TSUNAMI " .......
....... the dark lord Hickey has a total control of your mind ......
Come friend , come walk in the sunshine , feel the warmth of profits mounting up ..... Joy !

GBH - classic, I spilt my coffee laughing.  Hope the dark lord BH had a laugh too and I'm looking forward to a response BH.