Quotable Value says housing market softening with average values lower than 12 months ago in Auckland as the national growth rate slows

Quotable Value says housing market softening with average values lower than 12 months ago in Auckland as the national growth rate slows

The average value of homes is continuing to fall in Auckland and rise in most of the rest of the country, according to the May figures from Quotable Value.

The average value of homes in Auckland has fallen by just over $20,000 over the last six months, from $1,050,647 in November last year to $1,030,439 in May this year, according to the QV House Price Index.

Although the percentage decline has been relatively small (-1.9%) over that time, it has also been steady, with Auckland's average value declining for the last six consecutive months. It is now 2.1% lower than it was 12 months ago.

In Auckland's main districts the biggest decline has been on the North Shore where average values are down 3.9% compared to a year ago, followed by central Auckland, which includes upmarket suburbs such as Remuera, Epsom, Mt Eden, Grey Lynn, Ponsonby, Herne Bay and Mt Albert, (-2.6%), Waitakere -1.4% and Manukau -0.8%.

However values have been steadier on Auckland's northern and southern fringes over the last year, with the average value in Franklin up 1.0% in May compared to May last year, followed by Papakura +0.7% and Rodney +0.6% (see table below for average values throughout the country).

However while values have been mostly weaker in Auckland they are continuing to rise in the rest of the country. Albeit at a slower rate. The rate of annual growth nationally dropped from 6.9% in May last year to 2.3% at the same time this year, QV says.

Around the main centres, average values were up 4.9% compared to May last year in Hamilton, +5.9% in Tauranga, +7.8% in the Wellington region, +0.7% in Christchurch, +11.5% in Dunedin and +13.5% in Invercargill.

In Queenstown-Lakes, which is the second most expensive place in the country after Coastal North Shore, the average value was $1,182,362 in May, up 0.8% compared to a year earlier.

"Our major centres are seeing the market soften, with Auckland continuing to record single digit negative growth over the quarter and the capital city seeing values plateau over the last three months," QV Senior Consultant Paul McCorry said, adding that the rate of value growth had also started to slow in Dunedin.

"At the same time, many regional centres are still very much in the upward stage of their growth cycle, and continue to achieve strong yearly and quarterly value increases," McCorry said.

"These areas, which are generally more affordable such as Whanganui, Manawatu and Palmerston North, continue to attract plenty of buyer demand.

"Attractive lifestyle regions such as the Bay of Plenty and the Hawke's Bay continue to post good year on year growth.

McCorry also said the sales methods being used to sell properties were changing.

"Our property consultants are reporting that while well presented and competitively priced homes continue to attract multiple offers, gone are the days where every vendor was guaranteed a handful of sealed envelopes on tender day.

"Sellers and their agents are now having to work extra hard to attract buyers towards higher value properties.

"As a result, competitive pricing and effective marketing have become increasingly important parts of the sales process.

"Managing expectations remains key for real estate agents, particularly in the major cities where there can be a disconnect between vendors' price expectations and what buyers are willing to offer," he said.

QV House Price Index May 2019
Territorial authority Average current value $ 12 month change% 3 month change %
Auckland region           1,030,439 -2.1% -1.4%
Wellington region               706,517 7.8% 1.0%
Total New Zealand               686,954 2.3% 0.1%
       
Far North 444,688 5.5% -0.9%
Whangarei 543,957 3.1% 0.4%
Kaipara 546,715 1.0% 0.7%
Auckland - Rodney 959,625 0.6% 0.0%
Rodney - Hibiscus Coast 937,309 0.5% 0.7%
Rodney - North 982,455 0.6% -0.6%
Auckland - North Shore 1,179,660 -3.9% -2.2%
North Shore - Coastal 1,352,218 -3.8% -1.2%
North Shore - Onewa 943,717 -3.1% -2.4%
North Shore - North Harbour 1,145,924 -5.3% -4.8%
Auckland - Waitakere 813,218 -1.4% -0.7%
Auckland - City 1,210,726 -2.6% -1.8%
Auckland City - Central 1,054,828 -4.3% -2.0%
Auckland_City - East 1,536,378 -1.7% -1.3%
Auckland City - South 1,073,038 -2.1% -2.1%
Auckland City - Islands 1,109,858 -1.7% -2.3%
Auckland - Manukau 892,511 -0.8% -0.5%
Manukau - East 1,135,425 -1.8% -0.5%
Manukau - Central 691,061 -0.4% -1.1%
Manukau - North West 781,391 0.8% 0.4%
Auckland - Papakura 707,659 0.7% 1.6%
Auckland - Franklin 673,851 1.0% 0.0%
Thames Coromandel 760,366 3.3% 0.7%
Hauraki 422,702 0.0% 1.4%
Waikato 494,762 2.5% 1.5%
Matamata Piako 483,142 8.7% 0.7%
Hamilton 585,155 4.9% 0.8%
Hamilton - North East 730,259 3.2% 1.1%
Hamilton - Central & North West 539,602 5.0% 0.5%
Hamilton - South East 540,417 6.3% 1.0%
Hamilton - South West 520,295 5.8% 0.5%
Waipa 571,278 4.6% 0.9%
Otorohanga N/A N/A N/A
South Waikato 258,993 18.0% 2.0%
Waitomo 235,562 10.3% 7.6%
Taupo 518,719 8.3% 1.4%
Western BOP 675,491 7.3% 3.6%
Tauranga 741,501 5.9% 2.3%
Rotorua 475,164 13.2% 4.0%
Whakatane 470,665 9.2% 1.3%
Kawerau 259,883 29.3% 6.3%
Opotiki 324,499 6.7% 5.6%
Gisborne 349,327 13.0% 4.7%
Wairoa 204,825 4.2% 1.7%
Hastings 519,759 14.0% 1.6%
Napier 556,665 9.8% 1.4%
Central Hawkes Bay 378,015 15.2% 1.7%
New Plymouth 462,388 2.9% 0.9%
Stratford 281,335 6.3% 3.9%
South Taranaki 241,793 10.5% 2.7%
Ruapehu 213,127 12.6% -2.0%
Whanganui 296,161 16.9% 9.1%
Rangitikei 231,438 13.1% 5.2%
Manawatu 385,062 13.8% 6.6%
Palmerston North 442,275 13.8% 1.8%
Tararua 231,465 17.8% 3.1%
Horowhenua 364,487 16.2% 5.1%
Kapiti Coast 597,386 7.0% 2.3%
Porirua 593,179 6.7% 0.4%
Upper Hutt 557,909 14.7% 3.2%
Lower Hutt 584,855 9.7% 1.8%
Wellington City 829,167 6.3% 0.6%
Wellington - Central & South 818,850 6.1% -0.8%
Wellington - East 894,209 7.2% 2.3%
Wellington - North 759,928 7.8% 1.4%
Wellington - West 935,754 3.3% -0.2%
Masterton 382,188 12.3% 1.6%
Carterton 434,161 11.2% 4.5%
South Wairarapa 507,205 6.4% -0.5%
Tasman 602,759 5.4% 0.6%
Nelson 624,574 8.3% 2.0%
Marlborough 481,999 3.8% 1.9%
Kaikoura N/A N/A N/A
Buller 193,464 2.4% 0.0%
Grey 217,432 0.6% 2.0%
Westland 252,682 3.4% -1.3%
Hurunui 388,012 1.1% 0.3%
Waimakariri 448,071 1.8% -0.5%
Christchurch 498,801 0.7% 0.7%
Christchurch - East 377,323 1.6% 0.6%
Christchurch - Hills 682,648 1.6% 2.6%
Christchurch - Central & North 587,640 0.9% 0.7%
Christchurch - Southwest 472,749 -0.4% 0.0%
Christchurch - Banks Peninsula 521,713 1.5% 1.1%
Selwyn 555,471 1.2% 0.2%
Ashburton 359,052 1.3% 0.7%
Timaru 371,408 4.0% 0.8%
MacKenzie 545,398 5.7% 8.5%
Waimate 256,915 5.5% 3.7%
Waitaki 321,245 5.3% 2.0%
Central Otago 524,239 6.5% 0.2%
Queenstown Lakes 1,182,362 0.8% -1.9%
Dunedin 456,183 11.5% 1.6%
Dunedin - Central & North 474,085 10.5% 2.5%
Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal 408,789 7.7% 0.5%
Dunedin - South 436,797 12.6% 1.8%
Dunedin - Taieri 474,468 13.6% 1.0%
Clutha 229,340 10.8% 4.9%
Southland 314,323 12.6% 2.7%
Gore 236,168 6.5% -0.2%
Invercargill 299,672 13.5% 4.2%
Main Urban Areas               790,282 1.0% -0.3%

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38 Comments

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15
up

We are on rung 32 of a ladder... 31 to go before we reach ground level... hopefully most have helmets on..

18
up

Notice how for most of the Auckland sub-regions over half the drop is in the last 3 months, or in some cases the three month drop exceeds the 12 month. Implies that the slide is picking up speed, not slowing down, despite what granny Herald has been saying.

North Harbour looking particularly nasty, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the Chinese money being removed from play....

Well spotted, really looks to be on the move

Auckland HOUSE prices are holding remarkably well - especially given the length and magnitude of the previous upswing (which ended around October 2016).

APARTMENT prices still strong - but the apartment market does not display the same level of resilience as the house market.

Medium/longer term house owners/investors will reap strong gains in Auckland and Wellington - especially as demographic factors (including immigration) assert themselves.

Internationally, New Zealand is increasingly seen as a preferred country to live in. That's the "big picture".

TTP

Auckland HOUSE prices holding remarkably well - especially given the length and magnitude of the previous upswing (which ended around October 2016).

You make it sound like it's absolutely surprising they haven't gone down further.

"Medium/longer term house owners/investors will reap strong gains in Auckland"

Not if the bought at peak, I doubt those buyers would be a gleeful as yourself!

Clearly all this bad news is getting to you, maybe you should sit down and have a cup of tea....

Which of the Titanic's musicians are you?

Well, first and foremost it needs to be affordable for New Zealanders, sod foreigners and it is well past time we slowed immigration to a crawl so kiwis CAN afford to house themselves.

You are correct, when it says over 12 months it may be worst in last few months only. so the momentum is picking up.

It is not only related to one suburb in Auckland but overall and anyone who falls for the one of vested news that is placed every now and than in the media should be aware as this is just the begining - so called soft landing at the moment before.........

15
up

You’ve got to love the language: “Auckland continuing to record single digit negative growth over the quarter“. Stiff upper lip chaps, it’s still growth, just a bit negative. Don’t say decline, never say decline.

Yes, looks promising. Bring on the REINZ figures...

17
up

Yesterday 4 bedroom / 2 Bath approx 950 sq mt house in popular sunnyhills area in popular street went for $925000 and was in Auction, where it had to struggle to achieve it.

AND

This is not one off but the norm.

FHB should not rush BUT wait, watch and buy to get maximum for their $$$. House price may or may not fall further - can be argued (Though most probably will fall in time to come and only how much can be debated) BUT one thing is clear that is not going up soon, so why the rush as Cash is King in current environment.

Still many RE Agents have asking which is minimum 10% of what it may sell (A house listed for early 900 may get high 700 to early 800s and if some desperate and house is good, may be near mid 800s - such is the situation and even RE agents are aware Though does not apply to all but to most).

It's the RE's that are a major part of the problem. They need to drop their over inflated sales commission rates from 4% to 1% and included the marketing and other costs in just that 1% commission rate. Otherwise it's hard for Sellers to accept lower selling prices. If it's good enough for London RE's to use 1% commission rates, then it's certainly good enough for the likes of NZ RE's!

12
up

A few nervous homeowners in North Harbour losing 5% in 3 months!!!!!

I think you're missing a few !!!!! Lol. So you went through all the data, found the single worst figure and rounded it up to make it look worse
These 3 months compare end of summer values with end of autumn values. No doubt we can extrapolate that NZ is down 20% yoy. LOL

Not sure how 0.2 makes it look much worse....

So based on your "excuse" for the drops, with winter just getting underway, North Harbour homeowners can expect another 5% drop by end of winter????

As Pragmatist says below (or above?) price drop is accelerating. As is sales drop: the 3m sales pcm in various regions of North Auckland and Hibiscus Coast is lower than the 4m rate. Ditto the 4m rate v 5m rate and 5m rate v 7m rate. Compared to the 8m period of January 18 to August 18, sales in the big 5 suburbs of Hibiscus Coast are down 39.9% , on a monthly basis and this has increased in each comparative period right up to date. Sales are dropping fastest the higher the price bracket. Please see me on LinkedIn for commentary!

Building still going on at a fast pace in Millwater and Pacific Heights (or whatever it is called.) Plenty of stock around. Heard from one of the local Bayleys agents that she has 8 listings in Orewa and not even getting people through the open homes. Gulp.

.

A question on these stats. Does QV include all sales up to the end of the period or all sales as reported on QV ? The point I am making is that there seems to be a 3 ~4m lag on an actual sale being reported on the QV database so is this measure actually a significant lag indicator ?

QV's values are based on sales that have been settled, so there can be a lag behind data such as the Real Estate Institute's, which reports on deals that have gone unconditional.

Thanks for the comment. Any idea why when you look at the QV website it takes 3 months or so after a sale has completed for the data to show up ? E.g. A property that completed today, you wouldn't see on the records of QV or Homes.co.nz for about a further 3 - 4 months.

It's strange, I was being a little nosy at some auction results a while back. A QV search of properties that had sold at auction at least 6 months prior had quite a few that still didn't show up on the QV sales record. I didn't want to assume the sales were based on some weird anomaly like a winning vendors bid, that could suggest the clearance rates were much lower than advertised.

That's the issue l had when I was looking at actual sales data. QV updated their database nearly five months after a place went unconditional and about four months after completion. Hence my question about the lag in this data, seems to me they may be reporting on activity that actually took place in Dec /Jan rather than April /May. If so the market is already well below their lag reporting for Auckland at least.

No.
QV data is ALL (RE and private) sales over the previous THREE months. Whereas NZREI figures are just for REI sales as reported by agencies over the previous month.
Note: It doesn’t take three months for a sale to be reported by QV - in fact, if one can get their head around it, any sale is included in their monthly data for 3 months.

Well that would mean that it shows a more gradual decline/lift

That could also explain why Homes.co.nz Akld valuations are plummetting in comparision

All those who are still in denial mode about the fall and arguing in favour of price rise or stable market are doing not to convince other but themselves.

The harder they try to convince or argue will only reflect how worried they are and that market is getting worse from bad.

Positive thinking is good but when investing, one has to read the market and currenyly all indication are that the housing market is down and will go down further - only thing that can be debated is the percentage of fall from here on.

Agree, when few are arguing against the fall- when the market is actually falling are doing only because are scared as must have lot to loose so completely agree with "All those who are still in denial mode about the fall and arguing in favour of price rise or stable market are doing not to convince other but themselves" . Know few, who are RE Agents and were doing reasonable well for themselves in last few years but now most are nervous and struggling so is fair to them that whenever anyone talks about how bad the market is and what is about to come, they get extremely upset and try to argue otherwise. I guess is human nature and earlier they accept the reality better it will be for them to face the challenges ahead for worst is yet to come.

Yes, I attended a few auctions in Auckland in 2015-16, including selling one of my own, where houses often went for more than $100k over estimates (on pretty average houses), much to the obvious glee of the agents. At the time I thought, I wonder if they are saving their pretty easy, extra earnings for the obvious lean times around the corner. Making hay while the sun shines and all that. The market was far from normal.

Auckland is a trend leader in house price.. other cities in NZ, you are next!

Chairman Moa - but we didn't buy at such inlfated prices to begin with, but rather for a roof over over our head.

More bad news on the way.... Barfoots only sold 811 properties in May, down from 1010 last May......

Against how many last year and year before, if anyone has the date to compare.

We're still in an upswing, the market continues to inflate.

A big thank you should go to our Housing Minister Phil Twyford for breaking his campaign promises and not delivering real reform to housing supply. With extra special thanks to his creating price floors, set at $650,000 for Auckland market. And of course his efforts at juicing the market with extra incentives for first home buyers to invest into late bubble stages.

Phil Twyford really has delivered with his efforts to make NZ housing less affordable.

The bigger they are the harder they fall (Prices): In Auckland's main districts the biggest decline has been on the North Shore where average values are down 3.9% compared to a year ago, followed by central Auckland, which includes upmarket suburbs such as Remuera, Epsom, Mt Eden, Grey Lynn, Ponsonby, Herne Bay and Mt Albert.

Funny that it's the areas most effected by money laundering over the last few years that are taking the hit. Ahh well what did you expect to happen when property prices were pushed beyond wage earners reach.

The ChCh market is so resilient, and will be the city of choice in Australasia in the future.
Major business will set up in Christchurch where the quality of living is great.
The average price will continue to improve and investors are currently doing very nicely providing housing to those that don’t want to own their own home.
There remains opportunities in Christchurch in every market!

TM2, whatever you smoked before commenting, can I please have some?

Christchurch is not great, its on the improve but look how long its taken so far and I would pick it still has FIVE YEARS to go before I would call it "Vibrant" again. There is also now an obvious inner city homeless problem so you had better sort that out, I only walked a block from the hotel to the restaurant and you had people sleeping rough in the street.