Steady as she goes in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms for the start of spring

Steady as she goes in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms for the start of spring

Activity in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms last week remained on the same steady path its been on since the start of spring, with the agency handling 88 residential property auctions compared to 81 the previous week, and achieving sales on 48% of them compared to 51% the previous week.

At the major auctions where at least 10 properties were offered, the highest sales rate of 59% was achieved at the Shortland St auction on September 18, where most of the properties offered where from central Auckland suburbs such as Parnell, Glendowie, Remuera, Epsom, Mt Eden, and Grey Lynn.

The North Shore auction wasn't far behind, with fewer properties on offer but a sales rate of 55% and it was the Manukau auction, which handled properties from south and east Auckland, that brought up the rear last week with an overall sales rate of 27%.

The charts below has the sales breakdown for all of Barfoot & Thompson's auctions last week and you can see details of all the individual properties offered on our Residential Auction Results page.

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Barfoot & Thompson Residential Auction Results 16-22 September 2019
Date Venue Sold  Sold Prior Sold Post Not Sold Postponed Withdrawn Total % Sold
16-22 Sept On-site and branches 3 1   2   1 7 43%
17 Sept Manukau 4     10   1 15 27%
17 Sept Shortland St 2     1 1   4 50%
18 Sept Mortgagee/Court 1           1 100%
18 Sept Shortland St 12 2 2 11     27 59%
18 Sept Whangarei       1     1 0
18 Sept Pukekohe 1   1 5     7 29%
19 Sept North Shore 3 3   4   1 11 55%
19 Sept Shortland St 3 1   3     7 57%
20 Sept Shortland St 3     4   1 8 38%
Total All venues 32 7 3 41 1 4 88 48%

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Mortgagee Court once again has the highest clearance rate, they must have a very good auctioneer at that venue. Vendors should push for that auction room to increase their chances of a sale.

Nice. Still no change. Lower for longer - lower listings, lower sales, lower commissions, lower yields, lower interest rates, lower euro car leasing, lower sliced advo sales.

Probably just being sold for what they can actually get from the market.

11
up

You can really feel that Spring boost. 32 properties in a single week, ladies and gentlemen. Just incredible.

i really feel the heat...

ah, actually the cold wave over the housing market, as spring has failed to arrive

Clearly, the housing market has become more buoyant of recent times.......

As I've said several times recently, significant price increases can't be ruled out in the not-too-distant future.

Let's wait and see.........

TTP

I believe you said "There's every likelihood that Auckland house prices (average & median) will increase significantly over the next 12 months" (https://www.interest.co.nz/property/101451/number-new-dwellings-being-co...). The correctness of this statement is becoming harder to deny as we see breathtaking auction results, like this week, where an entire 32 properties were sold.

Hi GGP,

Thanks for the endorsement.

Best,

TTP

You're welcome, man. Love your posts.

Have you settled on which it will be? Is it that we can't rule out price increases, or is it every likelihood we'll see them? I have to know what you think to plan my next financial move.

Hi GGP,

Take your pick: they amount to much the same thing......

But you already knew that. You're completely aware of the picture I'm painting, because (like various others here) you hang onto every word I write.

TTP

Got it. "Every likelihood" is the same as "can't rule it out". I'll definitely note that down. I'll show it to anyone who dares suggest you don't know what you're talking about.

Hi GGP,

Just like I said above, you hang onto my every word - and even want to write them down.

Go get yourself a real life.

TTP

"significant price increases can't be ruled out in the not-too-distant future" I'd say that's quite a low probability (in Auckland at least). The pendulum swung way too far to the upside in recent years, as markets often then to do. It's unlikely it'll just swing back to the middle before heading back up. Reversion to historical mean of average income to prices seems likely in the medium term. The "new normal" stuff always turns out to be illusory.

dp

The underlying issues with the housing market havent been fixed and probably wont over the next 5 years.. so despite a badly performing economy listings and sales rates will pick up, as will prices as the effects of continual migration and low interest rates flow through. By the end of summer we will have a sub 3% interest rate on offer, and that will spur investors on mass back in. Only threat to that is unemployment picking up substantially, but low chances of that for the time being.

The jitters of an upbeat housing market in a slowing economy is being felt in the discretionary spending part of the economy, mainly due to faltering wage growth and growing job insecurity. This trend is obvious on both sides of the Tasman.
Let's see how long unemployment in the industries catering to domestic consumption remains low when businesses continue to face increasing costs and decreasing revenue.
That being said, I expect further rate cuts from RBNZ to keep the music on a little longer.

Same week last year 135 auctions and 44 sales (88 auctions and 32 sales above)
So 35% fewer auctions and 27% fewer sales.

What spring?

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/95997/major-auctions-sales-rates-ran...

42 properties were sold. I understand the earlier stats also included pre and post auctions sales within some time frame. So want to compare apples with apples.

so more or less the same amount sold , just less duds going to auction

Speaking of "duds" thegic, when was the last time you attended an auction?

TTP

You attend them a lot? What's your profession?

Fine, if that's the case all good.

I've asked a couple of times about that very point but no one from interest.co.nz has confirmed how the old data was constructed.
Genuine question, are you sure that "sold" in the old data includes pre- & post-?

I am sure Greg has confirmed this point previously. People asked for the pre and post sales amounts to be included separately several months ago.

Glad to see a person keeping data for comparison, other than myself
another useful stat that RE NZ might like to cough up (NOT) is number of hours and townhouses, every 14 days for each year, so we can compare.
of course, it would also be REALLY useful if we knew (from some agency that can count) how many there were as housing stock, in Auckland, so we can see what % is selling pa, etc.

Once the trade war with mother land is over, foreign buyers will start flocking back to Aotearoa. Buy now to stock up.. There're going to be good times.

It disgusts me that you'd call that a "good time". Who is it good for, really?

Pretty sure he is being facetious.

Some people here have such extreme views that I'm no longer confident if they're serious or not.

CM, you need to be more simplistic with your humor...

Yeah, their sarcasm detector meters need to be calibrated. But I should've mentioned CHCH then TM2 will like it though!

Hey, mine is calibrated fine, I picked it up.

still no real pickup in listings, at least in Auckland. must be, um, too rainy?

at the end of march there were 17% more listings (total) in auckland, compared with 2018. now there are 10% fewer.

next few weeks will be interesting.

I'm seeing the same. 2 listings in the areas/price range I'm interested in over the last 2 months. Same time last year there were that many a week.

Don't recall it being any dryer then, either.

I'm guessing that's why prices aren't moving much - there's just no supply competition.

Yep, and prices aren't moving much because of survivorship bias.

Average/Median/Whatever prices, obviously, are only based on properties that sell regardless if it's 1 sale or 100 sales.
No mention of the number of listings that are being pulled.

Well said. More being pulled than added. Hence total not rising except in WC which is up 17% in last 4 weeks

Finally the market seems to be heading away from outright speculation to more genuine reasons to sell , namely the 6"D's "

DEATH
DEPARTURE
DEBT
DIVORCE
DOWNSIZING / UPSIZING
DAMN OLD AGE

There should be no other reason to sell your home

Another one for Wellington and leaky Apts; DAMPNESS

The Wellington market is been fed by a HUGE project at the moment LOTR TV Series, now that's an economy. :)

They will need it. Overseas tourism could be on the wane

39,393 empty dwellings in Auckland according to Census 2018, up 6000 from the last. Land banking anyone? The Stuff article carries a, in my opinion, seriously flawed assumption from James Crow, founder of advocacy group Gimme Shelter Aotearoa, who says that most property owners would want them occupied. I don't believe this at all, but he goes on to say that owners shouldn't be sanctioned, but that wages and incomes should rise so that people can afford to live in the properties. I think he is completely in La La land!

Should all tax them

TradeMe's annual property index for Auckland sees 2.4% price drop from last year: [Link]

It was rainy, though, remember, so that doesn't count.

bliming me.. TTP to the rescue

I don't put much faith in those figures, they are asking prices, not selling prices. It does highlight that the falls in Auckland are mostly at the top end though. 5+ bedroom houses -5.3%, 3-4 bedroom -2.1%, 1-2 bedrooms -1.6%, Townhouses down a whopping -7.4%, while units only down -0.8%

Perhaps on the low volumes we've had townhouses may have been impacted by the Ronayne Street remediated leasehold ones selling, and other similar low value townhouses.

Still, it's the right direction overall for generations of younger Kiwis.

Looks like we need the empty house tax after all. Worked in Vancouver. But its only 3% maaaaaate
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/116027291/worrying-rise-in-emp...

BRITTANY KEOGH • AUCKLAND MILLENNIAL ISSUES REPORTER

Meanwhile folks total Auckland listings remain static and in fact are lower today than on Sunday

"....housing doesn’t have anything to do with economics. It long since ceased being a “market” at all.
Rather, it is a political complex – a quango – that represents the single largest page in the socio-economic contract between the government, the financial system and an ageing population....In 2008, when the world woke up, and the mutated vision was revealed in all its horrible form, the government deployed every available mechanism to keep the thing alive. Unheard of guarantees across the financial system, moral hazards like leaves in the wind, wholesale immigration, massive direct subsidies, huge general stimulus.
This might be forgivable if it was at least honest and openly declared. But it wasn’t and isn’t. Instead, those that had sat outside the system, hoping for a house or sagely planning to swoop when the bubble burst, are insulted with blandishments about how robust the system is, how they missed out on the “market”. Even though this so-called “market” long since ceased to bear any relation to laws of supply and demand."

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/09/heil-fasco-housing-complex/