Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms steady with 57% sales rate

Property

Sales on two thirds of the properties at Barfoot's big Manukau and North Shore auctions

22nd Oct 19, 9:39am by Greg Ninness

Activity in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms has continued on its recent course, with the agency processing 115 auction properties in the week from 14-20 October, compared to 91 the previous week.

Of those, sales were achieved on 65, giving an overall sales rate of 57% compared to 54% the previous week.

There were especially high sales rates at the Manukau and North Shore auctions last week, with sales on about two thirds of the properties at both auctions.

However, sales rates were more variable at the Shortland Street auctions. The main auction on October 16, in which most of the properties offered were from central or central-west suburbs such as Greenlane, St Heliers, Parnell, Glen Innes, Mt Albert, New Lynn and Avondale, achieved a 54% sales rate. And the auction at the same venue the previous day, where a similar selection of properties was offered, achieved a sales rate of 38% (see the table below for the full results breakdown).

Details of the individual properties offered at all of Barfoot's auctions last week are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 14-20 October 2019
Date	Venue	Sold	Sold Prior	Sold Post	Not Sold	Postponed	Withdrawn	Total	% Sold
14-20 Oct	On-site	4	2		3			9	67%
15 Oct	Manukau	11		1	6			18	67%
15 Oct	Shortland St	5			7	1		13	38%
16 Oct	Shortland St	13			11			24	54%
16 Oct	Whangarei	1			1			2	50%
16 Oct	Pukekohe	2	5		1		1	9	78%
17 Oct	North Shore	13	4		9			26	65%
17 Oct	Shortland St	1			6			7	14%
18 Oct	Shortland St	3			2	2		7	43%
Total	All venues	53	11	1	46	3	1	115	57%

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111 Comments

by RickStrauss | 22nd Oct 19, 2:04pm 1571706281

The individual results make for some interesting reading vs. RVs. Quite some variation.

Also, breakdown of sales in 2019 vs. previous years: https://i.imgur.com/qNcAHVk.png

by CJ099 | 22nd Oct 19, 10:27am 1571693265

Yep price reality seems to be digging deeper even with falling interest rates. Of the RV gains most seem to be scrapping by though there are quite a few hair cuts on prices take; 77 Deep Creek Road, Torbay, Auckland for example: Sold for: $1,435,000 yet the 2017 RV is $2,120,000. Looks to be a nice property with fantastic ocean views. They even had it advertised on real estate websites aimed at the overseas buyers, not that the Foreign Buyers Ban would deter dodgy REA's then. https://nz.hougarden.com/77-deep-creek-road-torbay-north-shore-city-auc…

by Ex Expat | 22nd Oct 19, 10:43am 1571694186

No details in Kohi so I looked at St Heliers.

Nine properties auctioned in October. 8 sales. One sold no price. Two sold below RV. Five sold above RV. Total sales = 105% of RV. Lowest was 81% and highest 126%. Looks healthy to me. Nothing depressed or exhuberent. Just people getting on with their lives.

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 10:57am 1571695062

Did you see my data link Ex-Expat?
https://ibb.co/0rFBBMc

Volumes are off a cliff at the high end of the market in Eastern Bays - as I mentioned last week.

by Ex Expat | 22nd Oct 19, 1:18pm 1571703521

Just looked at it now. Not unexpected as volumes depend on finding willing buyers and sellers and the anecdotal word is that there aren't enough sellers in the higher priced properties. CoreLogic updated the bank-use valuation on my home on 20/10 at @2,450,000 on a RV of $2,500,000. I can't see much if any long standing stock on Trademe. What is your view based on your data?

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 10:28am 1571693322

Because @printer8 enjoyed this comparison so much last week... here it is again this week:

Same week last year:
248 auctions (115 this year)
80 sales (53 this year).
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/96511/nearly-250-properties-offered…

Here's some bonus data for @printer8 too - latest sales volumes in Auckland's Eastern Suburbs by price bracket to August vs pcp 2018.
This is volume for *ALL* agencies and *ALL* sales methods - so no more whinging about that...
https://ibb.co/0rFBBMc

Volume for properties >$1.8m has fallen off a cliff.

Oh... and also, as I said last week, some agents must be working through their canned food stores.

blowingkisses.gif

by tothepoint - d… | 22nd Oct 19, 10:31am 1571693469

Today's headline/story provides further confirmation of the trend to a more buoyant market.

Notably, however, certain individuals here find difficulty in coming to terms with that.......

TTP

by GGP | 22nd Oct 19, 10:37am 1571693850

Do you generally find week to week comparisons more useful than year to year comparisons? Or is this a special occasion?

by nymad | 22nd Oct 19, 10:45am 1571694358

TTP would use daily comparisons if it suited his narrative.

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 11:28am 1571696894

Oh great... I'll take headlines over data any day.

Headlines must be right :S

by CourtJester | 22nd Oct 19, 12:51pm 1571701917

TTP, I'll upvote your comment. You provide excellent comedy nowadays!
Maybe we should switch names.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Oct 19, 1:15pm 1571703318

These comment threads are getting Kafkaesque.

In the rental price thread, property investors were castigating other posters for reading too much into a couple of months' negative data. Year on year trends were important!

In the property sales threads, negative year on year results were ignored by property investors in favour of a couple of months' less anemic data...(And very low volumes relative to other years are unmentionable.) Everything is buoyant. And predictions are owned after the fact, where before they were equivocal.

I myself have no idea where the market is heading but this stuff is just nutty.

by swapacrate | 22nd Oct 19, 8:19pm 1571728795

I don't know where prices are going either, but all I know is a lot of people find it difficult to save for deposit, everyday costs are really high, they are really scared of the debt they will incur and they are scared interest rates are very low but will one day rise. Not to mention job security whilst holding all that debt.

Not easy for some, and the way its going will not get easier for the younger generation coming through, especially with our low paid jobs.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Oct 19, 2:04pm 1571706253

What data do you suggest make the Auckland market look buoyant, TTP?

Here's a breakdown of Auckland sales vs previous years: https://i.imgur.com/qNcAHVk.png

by Glitzy | 22nd Oct 19, 10:46am 1571694405

Cmat, Steve Koebers marketing leaflet pushed through my door yesterday told the same story - median prices in Remuera now at the same level as mid 2014. Rob Reports both showing same fall in volumes and in median prices.

It ain't a rosey picture in this neck of the woods.

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 10:50am 1571694659

That link I posted with volumes (https://ibb.co/0rFBBMc) uses data directly from the Rob Report.

by Basil brush | 22nd Oct 19, 10:51am 1571694681

Can you post a link to Rob's report?

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 10:56am 1571694973

It's a PDF sent out via an email mailing list:
https://robertashton.bayleys.co.nz/The-Rob-Report.aspx

Sorry, I'm not smart enough to work out how to post a copy here.

by Glitzy | 22nd Oct 19, 11:12am 1571695959

Understood re your source. It's a shame REINZ don't publish all sales data in the same format. It's as if they have a story to hide.

by Basil brush | 22nd Oct 19, 10:50am 1571694602

Nice analysis CMAT. Have you come across any graphs of sales volumes for Auckland MOM?

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 10:59am 1571695192

No sorry, other than what the likes of REINZ report - but that doesn't break down price brackets.

by printer8 | 22nd Oct 19, 10:58am 1571695133

Cheers cmat
Other than a meaningless exercise, what is that you take from your analysis?
Fewer auctions, down just over 50% on your figures, but REINZ September Auckland sales 2018/19 up 6.3%.
Other than clearly a preference for other means of marketing and too much time on your hands, not really any shattering information worth noting about the market.

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 11:01am 1571695284

Did you miss my other link?
https://ibb.co/0rFBBMc

No bias to "other means of marketing" in that data.
The high end is goooooooooooooone

by printer8 | 22nd Oct 19, 11:33am 1571697216

Cmat
A couple of things;
1. You haven't answered my question as to what you take form your detailed analysis of auction sales over the past 12 months, and
2. No problem with the fact that over the past two years Auckland market has seen some cooling from it's 2017 peak - which always tends to more pronounced at the top of the market* - as is shown in your data. Like to know the rationale for your assertion with glee as to the future being "The high end is goooooooooooooone". At the moment it looks to me as valid as a Chicken Licken "The sky is falling" conclusion.

* There is reason for the top end of the market being more volatile. Ask if you are not sure.

by CJ099 | 22nd Oct 19, 11:59am 1571698789

LOL, The real reason why "the top end of the market being more volatile" is the Foreign Buyers are Gooooooooooooone"!!! You only have a few money launders left floating around and even they are not buying that much in the multi million bracket, so the top end of the Auckland market and other areas that were doing very well during the market selling peak are now stuffed and we can all see it in the results. Even China is on a downward trend in their housing market so you're doubly at a disadvantage.

by house hunter | 22nd Oct 19, 1:18pm 1571703523

My guess is that a few foreign buyers are entering the market using this trick: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116459930/heres-how-to-buy-your-way-to…

by Ex Expat | 22nd Oct 19, 1:33pm 1571704384

Take a wander past the recently settled 'top end of the market' houses in Kohi, see who's bought them and report back. I can confirm that the Foreign buyers don't feature (at least they look local, but who knows until you talk to them). How they afford them, I have no idea. The point is that some can.

by Chairman Moa | 22nd Oct 19, 1:48pm 1571705338

Local as in pale skin?

by Ex Expat | 22nd Oct 19, 2:23pm 1571707400

Well I wouldn't want to take the same road as Labour did a few years back, but short of talking to them I look for kiwi type behaviours like mowing your own lawn, washing you own (non ostentatious) car, walking around in bare feet and All Black flags on the fence or hanging out the windows.

by Chairman Moa | 22nd Oct 19, 4:47pm 1571716060

When they have an old Holden Commodore VZ on blocks at the front lawn, that is when you sell up and move to Point England!

by Ex Expat | 23rd Oct 19, 8:54am 1571774060

Nothing wrong with Point England, but I want any downsize property to be close to Kohi or St Heliers Beaches. That's my tribe. I recall you talking about Dunedin, how's that plan going?

by Chairman Moa | 23rd Oct 19, 1:24pm 1571790253

planning it!

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 12:09pm 1571699399

1. That auction volumes are a proxy for heat in the market... and heat has come out the market in a big way.
If you're a vendor in Auckland considering selling your house then your default preference will be to sell via auction - it's how you'd visualise it playing out in a perfect scenario. Dream = couple of weeks of open homes then huge irrational exuberance from competing bidders and sold.
No vendor, if they're honest, wants to haggle with conditional buyers.
And agents are the same - easy money - 2-3 week marketing campaign and sold on the day. Too easy.
If you're forced to choose other methods of sale then that's indicative of the state of the market.

That is Auckland (and Sydney & Melbourne) in a nutshell - Different in other parts of the country.
E.g. Auctions have always been very rare in Wellington even in hot markets.

2. "Some cooling". 30%-40% off is "some cooling"?
Last week you were trying to convince me this wasn't even happening coz "bias and, and different sales methods"... now it's oh yes, some cooling and we expect it to be more volatile.
Ok, ok, right, sure thing... and weather, and school holidays, and local body elections and, and, and....

I won't lie, I am happy because these vendors have ridiculous expectations of their property's value and think these suburbs are bullet proof.
If people want to treat property as an investment asset class then prices and behaviour in this market is going to be like any other asset class. I'm looking forward to people coming to that realisation.
Pride comes before a fall.

by printer8 | 22nd Oct 19, 12:42pm 1571701371

Cmat
“The auction volumes are an indicator that the heat has come out of the market”
That is where you are so, so wrong and reflects your flawed thinking when it comes to the malarkey.
It is well known that auctions are really the preferred form of marketing under three situations;
When the market is very hot, prices are increasing rapidly and the prices are difficult are difficult to determine, or
When the market is very slow and vendors need to sell and accepting of whatever price they can get, or
The property is quite unique and is either difficult to put a price on it or because of its uniqueness can attract attention.
If anything, declining numbers of auctions is an indicator that the market is returning to a more “normal” market conditions. Under such situations negotiations play a far more important role.
You will note that a decrease in auction volumes can mean one of two things; the market has peaked or the market has bottomed, and not just peaked as you seem to only know.
However, I don’t think that your preconceived bias is accepting of what is well known marketing rationale.

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 12:41pm 1571701315

Oh, right, so we're just entering a "new normal" and property is unique.

Good to know.
This always ends really well.

by printer8 | 22nd Oct 19, 12:44pm 1571701488

Cmat
Time will tell.

by CourtJester | 22nd Oct 19, 1:02pm 1571702570

It's spruiker logic. 30-40% decrease in volume is "some cooling", whereas a change of YoY HPI from -1.5% to -0.8% is the sure sign of a strong market and an upcoming bull run. Go figure.

by printer8 | 22nd Oct 19, 1:37pm 1571704657

CJ
“ . . an upcoming bull run . . “
I certainly have never said or implied that. Just another wild irrational comment.

In fact the introduction of LVRs was specifically introduced to prevent such an event.

by CourtJester | 22nd Oct 19, 3:51pm 1571712706

TTP has been saying it for months (years?). I know you're not TTP, that was a generic statement. I guess that's too wild and irrational to some.

by tothepoint - d… | 22nd Oct 19, 4:40pm 1571715620

Hi CourtJester,

Undoubtedly there'll be another bull run in the future, as we all know. But I can't predict when.

Some people now claim to be able to hear the distant roar of the bulls. Certainly, I'm not one of them.

TTP

by CJ099 | 22nd Oct 19, 9:45pm 1571733922

"Some people now claim to be able to hear the distant roar of the bulls. Certainly, I'm not one of them". LOL Ttp. Yep Court Jester is right, you really should swap user names with him. You're a giggle fest. :D

by Nzdan | 22nd Oct 19, 1:39pm 1571704774

To me it looks like the 30 - 40% decrease in volume is masking the true underlying drop in property values. Immigration hasn't slowed, so there's still plenty of potential "participants" in the property market. Banks are still lending, at record low interest rates.

But where are the buyers?

by HeavyG | 22nd Oct 19, 1:52pm 1571705533

YOY Auckland sales are up 6.3% to September 2019. YOY the median price has increased by 0.2% and HPI down -0.8%.

https://www.reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery

Using Barfoot and Thompson as a proxy for your state of the Auckland market does seem strange when you have reliable sales data at your fingertips.

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 2:23pm 1571707437

I use numerous sources of data to form my view.
Look up mosaic theory - you might learn something.

Including reliable sales data that shows a capitulation of top end volume in the Eastern suburbs.
That data is graunular and I know exactly what suburbs and value ranges it relates to.

REINZ's data is an agglomeration of a massive area across all price ranges - hard to take anything away from that.
And although it's up 6% for the past 2 months, those 2 months are still down 21% on the same 2 months in 2016.

by printer8 | 22nd Oct 19, 2:55pm 1571709330

That is your problem cmat.
You are looking for patterns and having a preconceived viewpoint you will find it in a mosaic whatever you bias wants to see. For example, sales figures for the first eight months of 2018 (that you present above) are not a useful basis or indicator for the short term market future.
You really need to stop being besotted with data and start to look at the various factors that are likely to influence the market.
There are lots of positive factors out there which are currently drivers for Auckland (housing shortage, high level of immigration, falling interest rates, increasing affordability - and yes some negatives) which your detailed analysis of data will not show. Oh, and yes; it is not in the RBNZ interest in terms of the economy to see a significant fall in house prices so expect some reaction on LVrs if they do.
I learnt in Fourth Form/Year 10 Science how it is invalid/fraught with error to just analysis data; one must first start with a reasoned rationale - your flaw is that you are missing that important step.

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 3:41pm 1571712095

OK @printer8, that's fine.
Absolutely fine.

No surprises that you're falling back on 4th Form Studies.

If you don't mind, I'll stick with the "problem" I have, all these learned biases from post-graduate behavioural finance studies.... where I learnt and studied investment biases.

Oh, another thing you might want to look up - Moral hazard.
That's where you expect someone else (like the RBNZ) to bail you out of sh!tty investment decisions.

by printer8 | 22nd Oct 19, 4:23pm 1571714601

cmat
Cheers.
One of us is going to eat humble pie.
Don't just do a Retired Poppy or Joe Wilkes and disappear instead.

by jimmyH | 22nd Oct 19, 5:07pm 1571717237

As I recall, Joe Wilkes was banned for repeatedly casting unsupported aspersions as to the independance of editorial policy, from financial and property related sectors.He was "dissapeared," and has found other venues for loose talking.

by Ex Expat | 23rd Oct 19, 9:05am 1571774701

Many have disappeared before them. I can't recall the exact monikers but there were a few DGM post the GFC that lasted a couple of years before the market trend saw them off. For the record, I never foresaw the rise I just benefited from it. Now I just watch what's going on in my hood.

by CJ099 | 22nd Oct 19, 9:48pm 1571734122

Don't let the REA's grind you down Cmat. Stick to the facts that's what they are most afraid of. :)

by tothepoint - d… | 22nd Oct 19, 4:49pm 1571716152

Hi printer8,

I should caution you that it's pointless challenging cmat about the school syllabus for Fourth Form/Year 10 Science......

The best evidence we have is that cmat dropped out before getting to high school.

TTP

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 5:02pm 1571716953

LOL.

by tothepoint - d… | 22nd Oct 19, 5:07pm 1571717234

Not really, cmat.......

I contacted your infant mistress.

TTP (-;

by Basil brush | 23rd Oct 19, 12:22pm 1571786536

What is the reason printer 8?

by fat pat | 23rd Oct 19, 9:42pm 1571820126

back of the envelope calculation from cmats figures, gross sales down 210 million in 8 months, or 316 million y/y. But that's backwards looking. It seems that capital flight from Hong Kong is aggressively seeking Australian real estate again, so upper quartile Auckland may rebound.

by Crazy Horse | 22nd Oct 19, 11:17am 1571696272

Fantastic results everyone !! :) ...as that lovely lady from Propeller Properties says on the wireless, with a positive grin ...."interest rates have never been this low!" While immigration is at record high levels, unemployment is at historical lows.... we have all our "ducks in a row" ! Now is the "turning point" for the Auckland residential property market .....the only way is up from here ! Ignore all the "doom and gloom" merchants ....get out to those open homes this weekend and grab a bargain ! Catch this lull in the market ....it will never be at these levels again ! ....it has and WILL double every 7 -10 years .....this is a proven fact !

Get off your "rusty dusty" ......WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR !!!

by CourtJester | 22nd Oct 19, 1:06pm 1571702774

Translation: "Please buy something, anything! I'm starving!"

by Yvil | 22nd Oct 19, 12:09pm 1571699382

It seems several people are very excited by the much lower number of properties selling. I don't understand why this is? Sure it's not good if you're a RE agent but what's the benefit in taking pleasure of less houses selling?

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 12:33pm 1571700783

Because some of us believe assets should be priced off fundamentals rather than simply a belief in capital gains into perpetuity.

This is typical behaviour when a price expectation gap unwinds.
It's good to see - confirmation that property is no different to any other asset class (despite all the distortionary incentives and access to leverage).
Price expectation gap forms;
Volume dries up;
Vendors are forced to lower price expectations to execute successful sales;
Assets find a new equilibrium at a lower price.

Shows that a shot of reality is prevailing.
Gives NZ chance to deleverage and not saddle our kids with insane levels of debt.

And for those mugs who treat property as a get-rich quick scheme, including all the associated unqualified charlatans running "tutor" programmes, hopefully they get burnt.
So instead of the media holding these mugs up as heros we get some cautionary tales about naive speculation.

Then we can go back to building productive wealth.

Definitely worth celebrating.

by CJ099 | 22nd Oct 19, 12:35pm 1571700920

100% Agree with you Cmat. :) I would also add to that this; That there's no point in maintaining a false economy whilst it push up the cost of living higher and higher. Even with keeping the immigration flood gates open, new immigrants are simply not going to be able to pay the rent let along eventually buy homes in our larger cities.
Simply put; The top end of the market is crumbling back down to reality to meet the real market.

by Yvil | 22nd Oct 19, 2:47pm 1571708829

CJ, cmat, prices have not gone down, it's the number of houses sold that is tumbling, it's disappointing you don't understand the difference.

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 4:17pm 1571714224

My post is clearly testing your comprehension skills.

by Yvil | 22nd Oct 19, 4:43pm 1571715795

Not really, my question was "why get excited over fewer houses selling" your answer was "it's good if prices are dropping" clearly showing you don't understand the difference and lack of correlation between number of sales and prices. The lack of comprehension is very clearly yours

by CJ099 | 22nd Oct 19, 9:52pm 1571734351

Yavil we can see the results, so forget trying to change the facts.

by Yvil | 23rd Oct 19, 9:02am 1571774571

Indeed, the result of over 3 years of much lower sales is no change in price, I'm glad you finally agree

by CJ099 | 23rd Oct 19, 12:25pm 1571786755

No I don't agree with you Yavil, You're obviously desperate to twist words but we can see the Auckland market is stagnating and having some rather large price falls even at auction.

by company of heroes | 23rd Oct 19, 11:49am 1571784540

Hi Yvil, I found it's really pointless to just argue over data and try to predict how the market goes in future. The data only shows past and now how the market perform. Will it shows about future? Not so much in my opinion. If you could successfully predict how housing market goes in future just based on the data. In 2017 you'd probably think the housing price would probably double in 2018 and 2019. But it didnt happen. So what happened then? Policy,economy, house affordability, money, demand and supply, these were the real factors. I'll just list some of the factors here: Ban foreign buyers, global economy heading towards a recession, New Zealand is the second most vulnerable economies to a correction in house prices based on bloomberg, China restricted property investment money flowing to oversea etc.

by Yvil | 23rd Oct 19, 2:54pm 1571795693

What if you have a along history of correct predictions?

by Yvil | 22nd Oct 19, 2:45pm 1571708735

cmat, I see you do not understand the difference between number of houses sold and price. In your reply all you talk about is price, you seem to think that numbers of houses sold being down significantly (maybe 50% ?) means that prices are down accordingly, this is not at all the case.

Number of houses sold is one thing
Prices of houses is a totally different issue, which has not followed number of houses down

by CourtJester | 22nd Oct 19, 4:00pm 1571713242

Yvil, since you always have this condescending grandfatherly tone towards us, maybe you can help me. What will happen to prices if effective demand for a certain range of products falls by 40% in a year? What will happen to the price of the unsold stock (especially the ones that *have to be sold* due to death, divorce, unemployment etc.)?

by Yvil | 22nd Oct 19, 4:46pm 1571715968

Why not find the answer in the actual data, sales have fallen about 40% and prices have largely stayed flat. There is your answer

by GGP | 22nd Oct 19, 5:55pm 1571720154

Interest rates have fallen and sales have largely also fallen. I guess by your logic, lower interest rates result in fewer housing sales? Or can we stop playing dumb about there being a lag involved in things like this?

by Yvil | 22nd Oct 19, 7:30pm 1571725801

The only dumb mistake is to believe less sales = lower prices

by GGP | 22nd Oct 19, 7:40pm 1571726457

First of all, there haven't been less sales. There have been *fewer* sales, thank you very much.

I guess the question is, why do you think sales numbers are going down? Obviously you have some reason in mind that has nothing to do with price?

by Yvil | 22nd Oct 19, 9:35pm 1571733355

Fewer sales has got everything to do with price.
Sales are going down because fewer people can afford houses at the lower and the FBB has removed buyers at the higher end.
On the other hand sellers are not willing to sell for less and there's no pressure for them to do so, so they sit on their hands (= fewer new listings).
Result: less sales, same price

by CJ099 | 22nd Oct 19, 10:00pm 1571734851

See now you're getting it Yavil. It's called property price stagnation, which leads in to price declines. The thing is it doesn't matter how low interest rates drop the higher end property prices will still be unaffordable until (drum roll please) prices fall. Which the are doing by the way or have you not noticed. Also it's not just the Foreign Buyer Ban (FFB) that has removed top end buyers it's mostly down to China's money restrictions which are going to in place for the foreseeable future.

by GGP | 22nd Oct 19, 10:10pm 1571735459

Your thinking is exactly the same as mine, then. I think we're all just talking past each other. The lower sales numbers prove what you're saying: prices are too high right now. That means their direction will continue to be down (or this version of "flat" https://ibb.co/VxHVkyK) until they become affordable again.

Only difference is I don't see what's going to change by March next year to suddenly turn it all around to meet your prediction. Just lower interest rates? Everyone going to double their incomes somehow?

by Yvil | 23rd Oct 19, 9:07am 1571774854

Glad you remember my forecast of record high prices in March 2020 (which will be reported in April of course). Yes you got it, quite simply as a result of lower interest rates. Most commenters get lost in a myriad of other meaningless data because they don't understand what really makes the RE market move.

by Nzdan | 22nd Oct 19, 7:49pm 1571726998

Immigration is still running high & Interest rates are record low. Why are there less sales?

Are there less physical buyers in the market? Or are there less buyers able or willing to pay the prices being asked? Maybe it's both, after the foreign buyer ban removed 3 percent of cashed up housing market participants we're now left with local wages and low wage immigrants to prop things up.

by Houseworks | 23rd Oct 19, 7:50am 1571770259

"Or are there less buyers able or willing to pay the prices being asked? Maybe it's both"

I would say its the latter NZDan ....FOMO has disappeared so nerves creep in. Some buyers are like a bachelor who cant commit and continues to remain single.

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 4:15pm 1571714145

"you seem to think that numbers of houses sold being down significantly... means that prices are down accordingly"

Yes, that's exactly what I think.
When I didn't say anything close to resembling that inference.

I talked about the price expectation gap and what typically follows.
Have you heard of the term 'Lead Indicator'?

by Yvil | 22nd Oct 19, 4:53pm 1571716408

Since you truly believe that fewer houses sold means lower prices, you should refrain from posting on RE articles and limit your posts on topics you understand

by CJ099 | 22nd Oct 19, 10:07pm 1571735240

LOL.. Now now Yavil we have warned you several times on your trying to intimidate other Commenters. Perhaps YOU should be the one refraining on your bullying behavior!

by Nzdan | 23rd Oct 19, 6:55am 1571766943

Don't worry, Yeevil will make another trip into the Interest.co office to shout them lunch in hopes of negating the "ban stick".

by Basil brush | 23rd Oct 19, 12:33pm 1571787210

Careful here Yvil. There has been some research completed in both NZ and overseas property markets that frequently draws a correlation between sales volumes and future prices. Not to take sides but CMAT's broad assertion that lower volumes equals lower prices is to some extent true. The last 5 years in AKL would validate this, right? Large volumes through 2014-17 and big price jumps. Much lower volumes in the last 12 months and price declines. Debating the extent of the correlation and casting future predictions is the exciting bit and what brings us to the forums!

by printer8 | 22nd Oct 19, 12:46pm 1571701600

No Yvil
There are not fewer properties selling as per NZREI September figures. Just fewer by auction.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Oct 19, 2:02pm 1571706168

Year to date, total Auckland sales are running 6.5% behind 2018 (taking data from the charts here on Interest). There have only been two months this year that have been above the same month last year: July and September; August was below last year. The average change for a month in 2019 vs. the same month last year is -5.4%, so far.

Auckland sales September Year to Date 2019 vs. 2018 are 1,090 down.

We don't recall 2018 as being that great, but here's 2019 vs 2018: https://i.imgur.com/qNcAHVk.png

I make no claims to know where the market is going. But I'm just not sure why folk have been celebrating the market as "buoyant" when the data do not show that. And while folk were castigating people in the thread on rents for taking too much from two months' data, here two months seem to be all the needed signs of buoyancy. Just odd.

by HeavyG | 22nd Oct 19, 2:16pm 1571706996

You're right, YTD is a better reflection and is down on last years volumes.

by Nzdan | 22nd Oct 19, 1:41pm 1571704877

Schadenfreude.

by theglc | 22nd Oct 19, 1:53pm 1571705605

Still low volumes being cleared (only 65) albeit better clearance rates, compared to 80 sold same week last year at 32% clearance rate

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/96511/nearly-250-properties-offered…

Cant see October volumes shooting the lights out.

still sluggish, might need another OCR cut or 2.......

by HeavyG | 22nd Oct 19, 1:59pm 1571705944

Why would you consider Barfoot and Thompson's auction numbers as relevant to sales volumes when sales data shows Auckland sales up 6.3% YOY? (see page 4 of this report https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2019/Reside…).

Also OCR is not determined by sales volume (read here https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/official-cash-rate-decisions). If it was there would likely be a rate increase in November (which is unlikely).

by RickStrauss | 22nd Oct 19, 2:01pm 1571706118

That's one month they're referring to. Breaking it down across the entire year looks a bit different: https://i.imgur.com/qNcAHVk.png

by cmat | 22nd Oct 19, 2:16pm 1571707003

Yep - and look at September volumes in 2014, 2015 & 2016!

by theglc | 23rd Oct 19, 9:00am 1571774433

the sales volumes for Akld the past 2 years has been abysmal, a slight increase this year just make it slightly less abysmal!

Was being Sarcastic about the OCR. The biggest driver for OCR cuts is to drive down our dollar.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Oct 19, 2:22pm 1571707342

Very small sections of the Auckland Central property market have been heating up markedly this afternoon.

by Pragmatist | 22nd Oct 19, 3:06pm 1571709999

Rumour is that was started by one of the property spruikers around these ways getting a bit hot under the collar after reading remarks on here...

by Houseworks | 23rd Oct 19, 9:03am 1571774596

This tongue in cheek comment of yours is one of your best all time comments Rick.... how about only posting tongue in cheek comments from now on....

by Yvil | 22nd Oct 19, 2:52pm 1571709174

It's disappointing that some people don't understand the difference between number of houses sold and prices of houses. The number of houses sold has definitely reduced markedly, the price of the houses has not.
If you're a RE agent, then yes the number of sales is important because you make money when you sell a house.
For everyone else, fewer sales doesn't make a difference. If I buy a house or if I sell a house, I'm not interested in how many other houses sold, I'm interested in how much I have to pay or will get paid.

Fewer houses sold does NOT equal lower prices

by RickStrauss | 22nd Oct 19, 3:02pm 1571709734

Has someone suggested lower sales = lower prices? I may have missed that.

I got the impression folk were noting that at current prices we're seeing the demand that exists for properties at those prices in the market right now. That might mean that to significantly increase sales numbers more properties might have to be made available at a lower price to attract demand, but sure, it doesn't mean ipso facto that prices are lower because sales numbers are lower.

The REINZ HPI is down 0.8% year on year, so Auckland house prices are down for some reason. But not necessarily the sales volume.

by Yvil | 22nd Oct 19, 4:38pm 1571715487

Yes, cmat has in the tread above today at 12:33. When I asked why lower number of sales matter, he responded that it's good for prices to come down, showing a clear confusion on his part

by RickStrauss | 23rd Oct 19, 9:24am 1571775858

True, if no one needs to sell then they won't need to lower prices to access more demand. They can just hold for longer terms. Otherwise I guess it's a case of either moving to meet demand or hoping that more demand comes in from overseas (and waiting for that to arrive).

Otherwise, a case of waiting for more demand to arise at current pricing, from other levers (a worried Reserve Bank of NZ?).

by Ex Expat | 22nd Oct 19, 3:08pm 1571710109

I think the inference is that lower volumes are due to lower demand and/or an inability to reach an equilibrium that will see more turnover i.e. prices are falling off the cliff, but we just need to get rid of the existing buyers to see it for what it is. Meanwhile the market turns over at it's current volume and levels. I have written before about the lack of property to downsize to. My current home is $8,000 per m2 of space. A new home near by sold for $11,600 per m2 off the plans. I would have had to cough up $1,050,000 for the upgrade. Alternatively, I could hope a smaller house is built. No luck there. Faced with this we intend to stay put. That's the kind of market decision made every day.

by tothepoint - d… | 22nd Oct 19, 5:00pm 1571716853

For interest, there are now apartments in Australia selling for $100,000 per square metre.

Let's hope you get carpet (and underlay) for that money........

TTP

by CourtJester | 22nd Oct 19, 7:54pm 1571727246

Hmm... I thought Auckland was diffrunt. Why the comparison to Australia now? I bet there are apartments in New York for $200,000+ per square metre! Clearly Auckland is underpriced!

by Chairman Moa | 22nd Oct 19, 4:51pm 1571716289

Canadians decided to keep their current PM. The force is still strong, expect JA to stay for another term or three..

by Averageman | 22nd Oct 19, 8:12pm 1571728350

Most in Awk still cant afford a house. Those that hold them are holding on but with flat prices cant continue to stack debt. Will take a chance in the cost of money to tip the balance.

by richard1965 | 23rd Oct 19, 1:21pm 1571790100

More than FHB was surprised to see Chinesse like old times bidding and grabbing the deal. It seems that non resident Chinese have found ways to manipulate and buy house in NZ.

Have to admit that last Ray White auction that attended was like old time when the bid was jumping fast.

If it continues than will soon see that whatever fall in price in last one year was observed will be a thing of past.

Wait and watch

by CJ099 | 23rd Oct 19, 7:35pm 1571812523

Nahh, Nice try through Richard, Sorry but we just don't believe you. Haven't you heard China is clamping down harder then ever on Capital Flight. Sorry mate they just can't get their money out. Oh and by the way, We do have a Foreign Buyers Ban and Overseas Investors will be breaking the law if they do buy property here and they don't have residency. Article: South China Morning Post: China’s capital outflow controls have gone to the ‘extreme’, former central bank adviser says. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3012312/chinas-capit…

by richard1965 | 23rd Oct 19, 8:46pm 1571816814

Good if it is not true but what I saw on raywhite halmoonbay auction on Monday surprised me too and just sharing what I saw.

by HouseHunter | 24th Oct 19, 8:59am 1571860789

My son's day care teacher told us that she has bought two properties on behalf of her parents in China... not breaking the law since she is a resident.

At the same auction Richard refers to, I sat behind a Chinese lady on video call to the actual bidder. Guess who won that auction?

by HouseHunter | 24th Oct 19, 8:41am 1571859671

I was at the auction on Monday and left depressed. The house we wanted sold for $200k above the professional valuation we had done for the bank.