Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms go into overdrive

Property

Nearly 250 properties offered at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions with sales on a third and most selling for more than their rating valuations

24th Oct 18, 9:37am by Greg Ninness

There was a flurry of activity in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms last week with the agency putting nearly 250 residential properties up for auction.

Of the 248 properties Barfoots marketed for sale by auction, sales were achieved on 80 of them, giving a sales clearance rate just a smidgen short of a third.

The biggest auction of the week was at Barfoot's Shortland Street rooms on October 17 where 63 properties were offered, mostly from central Auckland suburbs such as Kohimarama, Glendowie, Epsom, and Mt Eden. Sales were achieved on 18 of them, giving an overall sales rate of 29%.

The auctions at Manukau (48 properties) and North Shore (51 properties) were also whoppers, and they had respective sales rates of 29% and 35% - see the table below for the full auction break down.

Barfoot's Pukekohe office also had a particularly busy auction last week, with 11 properties marketed for auction and sales achieved on five, giving a clearance rate of 45%.

Of the 51 sales where the selling price could be matched with a rating valuation (RV), 31 sold for more than their RV, 18 sold for less than their RV and two sold for the same as their RV.

Details of the properties offered and the selling prices for most of the properties that sold are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

**Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 15-21 October 2018**
Date	Venue	Sold	Not Sold	Total	% Sold
15-21 October	On-site	0	5	5	0
16 October	Manukau	14	34	48	29%
16 October	B&T, Shortland St, CBD.	4	13	17	24%
17 Cctober	B&T Mortgagee/Court	1	1	2	50%
17 Octpober	Whangarei	1	0	1	100%
17 October	B&T Shortland St, CBD	18	45	63	29%
17 October	Warkworth	1	1	2	50%
17 October	Pukekohe	5	6	11	45%
18 October	North Shore	18	33	51	35%
18 October	B&T Shortland St	9	16	25	36%
19 October	B&T Shortland St	9	14	23	39%
Total	All venues	80	168	248	32%

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132 Comments

by bw | 24th Oct 18, 9:44am 1540327462

or...68% of properties fail to sell at auction?

by Masher | 24th Oct 18, 9:49am 1540327772

Its a staggering statistic and one which really should be doing the rounds more in mainstream media.

Sydney experienced 44% over the weekend and the media are painting it in a very doom and gloom light. Lowest rate since pre-GFC.

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Oct 18, 10:08am 1540328881

If vendors had realistic expectations to begin with, the 68% would more than likely have sold below 2017 CV. All the REA hype in the world won't prevent us following Australia - down.

by Masher | 24th Oct 18, 10:17am 1540329436

Only going to get worse for Australia. A lot of interest only mortgages coming up for renewal. 900,000 in January 2019 alone.

by puketepapa | 24th Oct 18, 10:53am 1540331580

Apparently AU Banks are no longer renewing or rolling over interest only mortgages. Mortgage holders are having to enter into Interest+Principal mortgages and offer up security plus equity. Of course the interest only mortgages would have been secured

by Masher | 24th Oct 18, 11:17am 1540333053

https://www.news.com.au/finance/propertys-ticking-time-bomb-is-about-to…

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 12:20pm 1540336858

What do you mean 'offer up security'?

by dictator | 24th Oct 18, 1:28pm 1540340917

In the last 5000 years security has often meant offering a family member or the person in debt becoming a slave. Of course slavery could be avoided by providing assets or gold.

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 4:13pm 1540350812

Why would they offer additional security or gold?

by Yankiwi | 24th Oct 18, 4:54pm 1540353260

It is only if the mortgagee wishes to get a loan that they would need security or gold...

The fun begins when the existing loan is due, and the current loan conditions have more stringent requirements than the prior loan (such as requiring some equity in the property or other available security).

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 5:04pm 1540353879

What do you mean requiring equity in the property? The bank will already have its teeth in to the property and they certainly cant go chasing for anything further unless some negligent action by the owner was the cause of the loss in value.

by Yvil | 24th Oct 18, 11:36am 1540334171

68% failing to sell at auction is abysmal indeed, I wonder why so many vendors still choose auctions in a soft market, auctions are great in a buoyant market but terrible in a soft market.

by bw | 24th Oct 18, 11:45am 1540334735

The 'auction' bit is the last stage of the process of selling. It's what happens when all other avenues of sale during the marketing programme have failed. Most properties these days will be quite amenable to an offer before the auction, and that's what is hoped for. If you get to auction these days, the probability is (32/68!) that you aren't going to sell.

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 12:26pm 1540337167

An auction is the first step in the sales process, not the last. You take your property to auction and you find its clearing value, about a 1/3rd find a price they will sell for. From there you decide if you want to list as price by negotiation and sit patiently, sell and take the loss or if you want to withdraw the property and wait for a year or three. Failing to sell at auction is not the same as failing to sell at all, many will sell a few weeks or months later.

by HouseHunter | 24th Oct 18, 12:57pm 1540339046

@BW is a pre-auction offer considered an unconditional offer? If yes, why would anyone want to put in an offer before the auction? I also read that even if you put in a pre-auction offer that the property can still proceed to auction. That is my understanding and so I take a wait and see approach. If the property doesn't sell at auction then only would I consider putting in an offer. I wouldn't waste money on unnecessary inspections.

*My understanding may be incorrect so please excuse my ignorance. Auction house sales are a new thing to me.

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 1:08pm 1540339695

A pre-auction offer is made as a cash unconditional offer, if accepted it usually just brings the date of the auction forward which is generally seen as increasing your chance of been successful in your attempt to purchase.

by Yvil | 24th Oct 18, 1:55pm 1540342500

BW, you say: "The 'auction' bit is the last stage of the process of selling"

This is just plain and simply untrue.

by shawking | 24th Oct 18, 5:06pm 1540353976

Yes you are right.. It is just the first part of the sale process ...not the last. Auctions are there to get buyers to get their ducks in a row within a certain time frame. If I was a seller I would be want to have a chance of selling within a certain time frame and unconditionally even with a 33% chance of success. I wouldn't want to wait for conditional buyers to have to sell or get finance which is becoming a lottery. .If it doesn't sell at auction ..it doesn't matter because at least you have given it your beast shot . move to plan b and put a price on it.

by Ocelot | 24th Oct 18, 4:52pm 1540353156

What is the opposite of "buoyant"? ...Soft apparently.

Another guess is "sinking".

by Nic Johnson | 24th Oct 18, 12:58pm 1540339104

Will New Zealand housing follow Australia down the hole? The foundations of our wonky market share the same foundations (4 big Aussie banks) . AMP are now forecasting 20% falls in Australia by 2020.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/amp-downgrad…

Westpac and ANZ both sitting near 2 year share price lows. Anyone fancy taking another interest only loan to help keep the market propped up?

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Oct 18, 2:06pm 1540343217

Like many others here, my expectation has been that the housing market won’t firm until early-2021......

But I/we may be wrong. There’s enough to suggest that a more buoyant market may emerge before then.

The prospects of picking up a “cheap property” are steadily diminishing - especially in Central Auckland.

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Oct 18, 2:50pm 1540345834

Auckland price to income ratios approaching 10%, gross rental yields sub 4% and agent TTP says grab a cheap property while you still can......

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/house-price-income-multiples

Unforgivably cringeworthy.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Oct 18, 4:26pm 1540351599

Hi Retired-Poppy,

Since April 2017 my position has been clear and consistent: Auckland house prices would hold relatively stable, fluctuating within a narrow band. This is exactly what has transpired,

In sharp contrast, you told everyone here that Auckland property market would crash before the end of 2017.....

And when that didn’t happen you said it was going to crash before the end of 2018. Again, completely wrong.

Who would believe a word you say - based on your dreadful, inaccurate track-record.

Indeed, one ponders how Retired-Poppy (the most prominent member of the DGM tribe) could be SO WRONG FOR SO LONG.....

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Oct 18, 4:53pm 1540353237

Gosh, it looks like I struck a nerve. So much so, you've once again resorted to telling tall tales :) Embarrassed perhaps?

by Nic Johnson | 24th Oct 18, 11:28pm 1540376882

Barfoot and Thompson are now introducing a new team song for morning meetings and to run during the Auctions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Cc62oBsUeE

by Nzdan | 25th Oct 18, 7:50am 1540407004

What song do you suggest they'll have on repeat while they queue up at Turners to auction off their used vehicles and office furniture?

by Nic Johnson | 25th Oct 18, 9:24am 1540412679

Nzdan. This one's for you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVemUWvl_z4

by NorthernLights | 24th Oct 18, 4:50pm 1540353008

So the entertainment restarts
Can’t wait to read the yin’s & yangs

by The next generation | 24th Oct 18, 6:07pm 1540357641

"Interest" is starting to look like the Herald: cherry picking the data - with the Herald we know this skewed information is driven by self-interest, but I thought "interest" was better than this?

by mfd | 24th Oct 18, 7:20pm 1540362052

Yes, I think it is better than that. Didn't you find this article presented the facts in a balanced way? What data did they miss out?

by Deb12 | 25th Oct 18, 8:58am 1540411112

Given there were auctions on post Monday, I would have expected data from Tuesday's auction, where my B&H agent said 8/23 houses sold.

by mfd | 25th Oct 18, 10:08am 1540415289

I guess there must be a lag to acquiring the data. Looks like they're up to Sunday as I type this:

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/residential-auction-results

My point is, there's no cherry picking here. Just a presentation of the facts which we can interpret in our own ways.

by Masher | 24th Oct 18, 9:45am 1540327555

Nice spin on words there guys and girls. If it looks like a turd and smells like a turd it probably is a turd.

by Pragmatist | 24th Oct 18, 9:48am 1540327718

Last minute rush to nab a foreign buyer.. bit of a damp squib tho.

by mlpc | 24th Oct 18, 10:10am 1540329046

Who writes this stuff?
" ... sales on a third and most selling for more than their rating valuations."

What this actually means is that approx 80% of the properties offered failed to achieve their rating valuations, and more than two-thirds didn't sell at all..

by BuyLowSellHigh | 24th Oct 18, 10:22am 1540329765

What do you mean "who writes this stuff? The author's name is at the top of the article, sunshine.

What part of the article or title is factually inaccurate?

Without fail there are always a few sookey babas that come out of the woodwork to spit the dummy when auction results aren't framed negatively.

by Ex Expat | 24th Oct 18, 10:26am 1540330012

I tried to bait the DGMs yesterday but it didn’t work so I won’t bother today. According to the auction listings Kohi had 5 and only one sold @ 122% of CV. The other four listings were a set of sausage B&T flats. 37 Southern Cross Road sold last week after 80 days on the market. Listings are clearing with single site homes in the $2.2 million plus range. The market there is neither hot nor cold, it’s clearing. Of course this is a niche market but maybe you DGMs could actually post some data to support your views.

by BuyLowSellHigh | 24th Oct 18, 11:34am 1540334091

Yes, I agree the market is flat. Unfortunately this website has become infested with miserable DGMs that value feelings over facts. The level of confirmation bias going on here is stunning. "I want the housing market to tank, therefore the housing market is going to tank".

by Yvil | 24th Oct 18, 11:39am 1540334390

Quote of the day

by Nic Johnson | 24th Oct 18, 11:44am 1540334680

Figures time gents as requested by Ex Expat
5500 sales across the Country in September. Today there are 35,713 properties for sale on realestate.co.nz. If no more houses were added to the market it would still take 6.5 months (and that's unlikely without the foreigners to assist us now) to clear the market of stock. Or put simply sellers have a 1 in 6.5 chance of selling each month and if they don't own something very very unique will have to stand out from the crowd by making their home appealing on price - otherwise they will just sit there as sensible new sellers enter the market at clearing levels (lower values).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XmwiwQjU8E

by BuyLowSellHigh | 24th Oct 18, 12:23pm 1540337036

The latest REINZ report states that national median days to sell is 36. Please explain how you calculated that “sellers have a 1 in 6.5 chance of selling each month

You say that there are 35,713 properties for sale on realestate.co.nz. In context you imply that you are referring to houses, but does this figure include commercial/office/industrial/farms? In terms of residential property, the REINZ report states that the number of properties available for sale nationally increased by 5.2% YOY from 21,727 to 22,847 last month.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Oct 18, 12:29pm 1540337377

35713 (total stock) / 5500 (volume of sales in September). It's not that difficult BLSH. At current rate of sales there is plenty of stock and definitely no housing shortage..... Just a shortage of fools by the looks of the numbers..

by mfd | 24th Oct 18, 12:42pm 1540338144

It's hard to interpret data without context, i.e. what was it like during the last boom and during the last bust?

There's a similar published set of data here:

https://www.interest.co.nz/Charts/Real%20estate/Housing%20inventory

Inventory is definitely ticking up, but not to historically high levels. Auckland is back to where it was before 2012, a time when prices were reasonably flat, the price drops back in 2007-09 had much higher inventories.

by CN | 24th Oct 18, 1:22pm 1540340532

For the month of October inventory levels for Auckland are currently at 27.6 weeks.

For context, since 2007, the median for October has been 20.6 weeks, the average for October has been 24.0 weeks.

by mfd | 24th Oct 18, 1:54pm 1540342462

So, nothing too dramatic just yet, and presumably your data series would also have much higher inventories back in 2007-8 to achieve that average?

by Yvil | 24th Oct 18, 2:04pm 1540343050

There's only 1 figure that counts, the sale/purchase price.

It's pointless writing a dozen lengthy comments filled with theoretical figures on each article written on Interest.co.nz

by mfd | 24th Oct 18, 2:57pm 1540346236

Well, not necessarily. If you can find a correlated stat it's interesting, especially if it starts to change before price changes show up. But, for anyone to convince me that they have data showing prices are falling, as a starting point I want to see what was happening to that data last time prices were falling, and I'm not sure Nic is there yet. Like you, in the meantime I'm just watching the prices flatline in Auckland and Chch and waiting to see which way the curve goes next.

by CN | 24th Oct 18, 2:19pm 1540343956

MFD

Yes - higher than current levels in the 2007-2011 period.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Oct 18, 2:42pm 1540345342

or in simple terms.. 6.5 months of stock. Where the REINZ get their 36 median days to sell is a question perhaps they should come clean on. Are they taking figures from what agents tell them?

by mfd | 24th Oct 18, 2:51pm 1540345904

I don't know, but feel free to enlighten me if you have a better source of data than the above for looking at inventory/days to sell over the past decade.

by CN | 24th Oct 18, 3:06pm 1540346782

My understanding is that median sale days can be distorted and gamed. If a property remains unsold for a long period of time, it can be taken off the market and then relisted later. Median sale days count is then reset at new re-listing date.

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 5:28pm 1540355305

The metric of days to sell is actually days to sell per agent, so if you change agents it resets the clock. More to the point though is that it is median days to sell. It means about 50% sell before that and about 50% sell after that. If you have a long tail then you can build quite a big inventory even with okay days to sell.

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 1:02pm 1540339378

@Nic Johnson Because house clearance rates are a function of multiple variables its unreasonable to look at clearance rates alone and conclude anything about scarcity. For example if there was an extreme shortage but interest rates rose a percent or two you would have almost no sales outside of some forced sales, simply because affordability was wrecked.

by BuyLowSellHigh | 24th Oct 18, 1:04pm 1540339471

For starters, residential properties up for sale is 22,847, not 35,713.

Did you do probability theory in high school?

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 1:22pm 1540340573

He made the error of clicking 'residential' on realestate.co.nz and assumed that total listings was an equivalent to the reinz 'houses sold' category. Its actually 4 months of stock.

by nymad | 24th Oct 18, 1:21pm 1540340467

Nic, you can't just normalise the stock by month sales and proclaim that that is the true likelihood of sale at any given point.

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 1:29pm 1540340956

Its probably not a bad estimate but he made a mess of the data.

by nymad | 24th Oct 18, 2:35pm 1540344928

It's a terrible estimate.
Probably the most crude estimate of unconditional likelihood that you could ever make.

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 5:07pm 1540354069

Well with a bunch of assumptions ive got the average at 21% in any month over a 4 month period, given the trouble I had to go to id say 25% is ball park accurate.
Id be fascinated by your estimate.

by nymad | 24th Oct 18, 5:47pm 1540356430

What are you even talking about?

Is this like the time you tried to fit a non linear regression to stationary time series data?

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 7:01pm 1540360889

Sure its like that, the same conversation where you couldn't even add to 6, then tried to ram a single outlier in 2012 as evidence of trend change... I then appropriately charted how ludicrous your claim was that GDP per hour is "flat" or "lower than unity". If you remember this was the chart formula applied after your rather pointless request for a non-linear: y=88.48x^0.057 which illustrates a declining rate of productivity growth but never the less, a non negative rate of growth.
Here is the data series by the way:
2001 - 91
2002 - 92.8
2003 - 94.5
2004 - 94.1
2005 - 94.0
2006 - 95.4
2007 - 99.1
2008 - 96.0
2009 - 101
2010 - 100
2011 - 102.2
2012 - 105.7
2013 - 103.6
2014 - 102.8
2015 - 104.6
2016 - 105.2

nymad 2017: "What about the change from 2012 to 2016? is 105.2/105.7 lower than unity, perhaps?"

Lol@that quote, trend is up over time, cant cherry pick an outlier and be taken seriously.

Here is the linear:
y = 0.9806x + 90.54
Its a better fit.

by nymad | 24th Oct 18, 8:26pm 1540365962

Quote

"Here is another way to look at this data:

0.01978022
0.018318966
-0.004232804
-0.001062699
0.014893617
0.038784067
-0.031281534
0.052083333
-0.00990099
0.022
0.034246575
-0.01986755
-0.007722008
0.017509728
0.005736138

That is the list of productivity change by year. It generates the following line shape:
y = -0.31ln(x) + 1.573
which is more illustrative of growth over time and even includes societal collapse :-)"

You fitted a log function to a stationary data series. It was stupid and proved my point that you had no idea what you were doing.

by Laminar | 25th Oct 18, 12:24pm 1540423470

This is too funny. Do you not realise what you are looking at? That data is the annual change is GDP hours. It isnt stationary, it is gradually declining. You can fit a line or a curve to that data. If you choose to fit a log curve to it then it estimates that in 160 years productivity will turn negative, which i found cute.
Given you need things in simple formats ill make your life easy:
1.98%
1.83%
-0.42%
-0.11%
1.49%
3.88%
-3.13%
5.21%
-0.99%
2.20%
3.42%
-1.99%
-0.77%
1.75%
0.57%
Clear enough for you now?

by nymad | 25th Oct 18, 12:48pm 1540424903

Funny that you have made an astounding discovery in time series modelling. You can forecast non mean reverting, non constant variance data. What's more it's also fine to make out of sample predictions from in sample estimates.
Queue Nobel Prize in econometrics, Laminar.

Also interesting that the differenced data removes you 'outlier'.
But hey, you are obviously the expert on time series statistics.

https://people.duke.edu/~rnau/411diff.htm

by Laminar | 25th Oct 18, 3:03pm 1540433008

BEA does the same thing as me:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._GDP_Growth_Rate_Over_Time…
GDP growth is trend reverting and so is productivity, underutilisation recovers to trend after most corrections. Growth in any one year is not independent from previous years.
Average growth rates, and average productivity gains are declining on trend, and extrapolated that would eventually become a problem. It likely simply represents the reality that baring some great leap forward the law of diminishing returns will sap the Wests ability to expand.

Here is Mises doing the same thing:
https://mises-media.s3.amazonaws.com/styles/full_width/s3/shos5.PNG?ito…

The outlier is clearly visible as the above trend build from data point 8 to data point 11, you just have no idea what you are looking for. Youd help yourself if you actually graphed these things. A simple two point moving average will reveal the outlier function with great clarity. You could even fit trend lines to the cyclical sub series, then calculate their gradients to see the outlier as compared to prior cycles in tabular form.

by nymad | 25th Oct 18, 3:32pm 1540434727

Have you told the BEA about their outlier issues? Or does it not matter when the effects suit your rhetoric?

"Growth in any one year is not independent from previous years."
Well yes and no. However, when data is properly forecasted any of this dependence is controlled for. Forecasters don't just draw a line and extrapolate that out as you advocate.

"GDP growth is trend reverting and so is productivity, underutilisation recovers to trend after most corrections. "

No. In a growth sense they are mean reverting. Not trend reverting. This is an important assumption in time series - that the data moments are approximated to constants and the data is characterised as randomly generated (mean reverting).
To say the latter (trend reverting), like I said, means that you cannot model and forecast them in the manner you are. Simply fitting a function to an observed dataset and projecting out of sample is not how forecasting is done.
There are Granger techniques you can use to prove reversions to trend. But this is not what you have been advocating.

Keep going. I did a PhD in stats, so love this.

by Laminar | 26th Oct 18, 2:46pm 1540518387

Evidently its not a PHD in economics because that is exactly backwards. I specificaly dont want to subtract or divide out the trend, because the trend is what im trying to establish. Im actually smoothing out the cycles and seasons, noise and such to establish the long term trend.
The reason forecasters detrend data is to make short term predictions, exactly what im not doing. You cant forecast out 160 years, and even though i was actually making fun of you with that 160 year 'societal collapse' statement, if you were going to guess at what happens in 160 years, you would do exactly what i have, which is manage out the seasonality, cycles and noise to establish a long term trend and a trend line does that very neatly.
You are like the people who say global warming stopped in 1998, because you fail to understand that within larger trends you have reversals, and these reversals do nothing to invalidate the long term trend. 2012 was an outlier, formed from a longer period of productivity gains than is typical, it is not a trend change.

by gingerninja | 27th Oct 18, 7:36pm 1540622194

Nymad and Laminar. you guys are adorable, I love to see your statistics romance blossoming.

by Laminar | 24th Oct 18, 12:52pm 1540338738

@BuyLowSellHigh Median days to sell is actually specific to a sales agent, as markets slow down and agent switching becomes more common that figure starts decoupling from the actual days to sell.

by Ex Expat | 24th Oct 18, 12:17pm 1540336621

I meant actual sales vs CV, remaining stock, days on market etc. You present as someone trying to confirm a bias with high level stats and/or flawed data e.g. using LINZ data to see if people owe a lot .

I take a different approach and just look at my area. I see modest listing numbers, listings selling if priced properly and stable prices. Granted it's a small sample but if the market were sick wouldn't the higher priced areas be tanking as well?

by Zachary Smith | 24th Oct 18, 1:24pm 1540340691

I'm seeing the exact same thing in Greenlane. Houses are selling and for very good prices and listing numbers are average.

by Ex Expat | 24th Oct 18, 2:03pm 1540342996

Spring is the prime listing time. Gardens are in good condition, weather is usually warm and people don't have other distractions, plus they can likely settle prior to the Christmas shutdown. Why this is perceived as a sign the market is flooded is beyond me. Prices are still around CV with explainable differences. Relax and be happy, get on with life. The market is stable.

by Ex Expat | 24th Oct 18, 3:02pm 1540346557

BTW: Core Logic updated the Bank's estimation of my home value to 100% of 2017 CV on 21 October from 99.1% on 14 October.

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Oct 18, 3:15pm 1540347316

Uh-huh, so if it's not happening in your backyard then whos? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/107694820/auckland-christchurch-proper…

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106902193/heres-where-house-prices-are…

Of course prices are sagging on a wider basis. You're both just trolling :-)

by Ex Expat | 24th Oct 18, 3:24pm 1540347880

No idea, just posting what the Bank's estimate of my home value is, given by Core Logic. Maybe someone in the know could tell us how Core Logic derive their value? In general I'd put more store in them than Stuff or the Herald.

Edit: Just noticed those articles refer to Core Logic data. I guess mine is the most up to date and precise measurement for my property and those articles are general. It's the same source but mine isn't used to sell newspapers or clicks.

by Nzdan | 25th Oct 18, 7:52am 1540407174

I hear Core Logic are bringing out a widget you can install on your Samsung Smart Fridge that'll display the spot price on your home in real time.

by dictator | 24th Oct 18, 3:19pm 1540347593

People hate it when you talk about New Zealand's property ongoing property crash.

by Averageman | 24th Oct 18, 1:29pm 1540340974

Not DGM, but values have been crazy due to external influences, so i would confess to being short on Auckland property. Whats that ... multiple properties in residential and commercial, and no debt. Or...just not leveraged to la la land.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Oct 18, 2:39pm 1540345167

Frankly, anyone who wants the market to soar or tank is a menace - and usually driven by their own self-interest/greed. (Unfortunately, there are a number of such people who contribute here - including the notorious DGM.)

An extended period of stability would now be a good thing. There’s not too much wrong with stability in any market.

Stability, of course, is a key aim of wider Government - and the Reserve Bank. Long may such a prudent/commonsense approach prevail.

TTP

by saving4AUhouse | 24th Oct 18, 3:50pm 1540349404

So to summarise - people who want to be able to afford a family home are greedy, while people who want homes to stay unaffordable so they can profit from investments off the backs of poorer people are... fine upstanding citizens?

I really wish I was born with a silver spoon in my mouth like you.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Oct 18, 5:27pm 1540355252

Hi Saving4AUhouse,

No silver spoon ever in my mouth.

Whatever I happen to have I’ve worked damned hard for.

I know it’s tough - but I suggest you also work hard, save, get good market information and use it astutely...... That’s the best way of achieving success and satisfaction.

TTP

by saving4AUhouse | 24th Oct 18, 6:10pm 1540357809

I don't believe you. I think you'd have more sympathy for those who had to rent if you actually were a self-made man/woman.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Oct 18, 7:42pm 1540363330

I know it’s tough if you have to rent - as I did for many years.

But if you wish to accumulate wealth, the best approach is to get an education and be prepared to work hard.

Moaning and groaning about house prices won’t get you anywhere.

TTP

by saving4AUhouse | 24th Oct 18, 8:26pm 1540365987

You're trying to turn this around. You're trying to say that if someone is bearish about this property market, they are moaning and groaning. They are trying to will the market to do what they want. They're also bad, selfish people.

I'm telling you that's bullshit. It's doom and gloom for most of the country, because they can't afford a house. I earn a decent income, I'll be OK, but there are people out there earning half or less what I earn and - because I have a heart - I feel for them.

So to try and say people who want the housing market to correct are greedy and selfish is bullshit. NZ houses are unaffordable by objective measures. If anything, you are greedy and selfish if you want prices to stay as they are.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Oct 18, 9:53pm 1540371184

Hi Saving4AUhouse,

There’s little prospect of house prices falling significantly - so you’d better get used to it.

And relying on ANY government to put a roof over your head if you earn a decent income would be pretty naive.

For those in genuine hardship through disability/disadvantage, government has a legitimate role and the present government is responding - or attempting to respond.

By the way, it’s not all doom and gloom. Plenty of people have done the hard yards and got themselves into a basic first home. That will continue.

TTP

by saving4AUhouse | 24th Oct 18, 10:26pm 1540373218

Ok seriously my whole gimmick here is that it's not worth buying in NZ... so I won't. Not sure what I need to 'get used to.

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 24th Oct 18, 11:20am 1540333231

They have to keep some folk happy, it's about being well balanced irrespective of the facts :)

by Yvil | 24th Oct 18, 11:39am 1540334356

Well balanced??? Have you thought about your name...

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 24th Oct 18, 11:58am 1540335505

There you go. . Hiding from facts and reality.

by Yvil | 24th Oct 18, 10:17am 1540329444

"Of the 51 sales where the selling price could be matched with a rating valuation (RV), 31 sold for more than their RV, 18 sold for less than their RV and two sold for the same as their RV"

Greg, please amend your statement to suit commenters posts on this site, values are dropping significantly and now that the foreign buyer ban is in place they are truely plummeting

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Oct 18, 10:20am 1540329634

Yvil, right now, the only thing that's in "overdrive" is you ;-)

by Masher | 24th Oct 18, 10:26am 1540329970

What, if you're one of the lucky 32% that sells theres a 61% chance that it will go above RV?

So of all the properties that went to auction 19.52% sold for a price about RV. That means four of every five houses didn't sell above RV or didn't sell at all.

I don't think anyone has labelled this a truely plummeting market, but I can understand peoples reasoning behind being pessimistic about the present and very concerned about the future.

by BuyLowSellHigh | 24th Oct 18, 10:21am 1540329678

by RickStrauss | 24th Oct 18, 10:24am 1540329844

A well made point.

by BuyLowSellHigh | 24th Oct 18, 10:31am 1540330313

haha, cheers.

by Averageman | 24th Oct 18, 11:45am 1540334732

No change in sales conversion, just more listings, so no change to the last year or so other that more looking to cash out. Note OIAA 2018 effective two months after Royal Assent so 22nd of October and still only a third conversion. Is this the last Auctions before the ban, auctions in November will tell the story. Imagine for a moment that the sale conversion rate of 1/3 drops even further...

Still calling a big drop for DGZ non sub dividable property. Stuff that can be intensified likely to hold up going forward. i.e. subdivision potential is a logical historical driver of value.

I would also like to see the bill drawn last week that will limit Super to those that have actually worked for 20 years in NZ extended to cover Public healthcare and Public Education. If you can pay twice the going rate for a house, surely you can pay for private education and healthcare.

by theglc | 24th Oct 18, 10:43am 1540330998

So, well into peak selling season and can still can even clear 1/3, that's pretty dire!

Realestate.co.nz AKLD res property listings now over 13500
Trade me AKLD res property listings now over 12600

Lots on offer, not much demand, FBs gone, by the end of Summer .... freefall

by taimaiakka0 | 24th Oct 18, 11:28am 1540333697

Will be interesting to see - next Auction Result (Pre and post foreign buyer ban).

If foreign buyers were and are active would have rushed to buy before the ban is put in place. Must be do or die situation for foreign buyers who were interested in buying in NZ.

Will be interesting if can have the data of the buyers residency status in last Auction

Wait and watch.

by Zachary Smith | 24th Oct 18, 1:13pm 1540339993

When you consider that a lot of houses sell just a few days after the auction these results are very stable. Auction is still a perfectly valid way to sell provided you have a good location, present it well and are not too greedy about price.

Very few of the successful results will be for houses where the vendor bought in the last two years or so.

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Oct 18, 1:31pm 1540341072

...and being that it's a buyers market, the best presented and tastefully renovated are more likely to fetch premium prices, near, on or even above CV. If carefully done, what the vendor puts in $$ wise, the vendor hopefully gets out. In this market, the rest (jittery specu-slumlords) have no choice but to pursue the fewer buyers that remain.

by Ex Expat | 24th Oct 18, 2:08pm 1540343315

For once we agree. Quality at the right price sells. Rubbish is just that, rubbish.

by Pragmatist | 24th Oct 18, 2:25pm 1540344309

Would be very interesting to find out what the reserve at auction was, and what the number on the final contract was. Are vendors having to take a lot less than they want to get rid of properties that don't sell at auction, or are they only a few percent under their original reserve, or even possibly (but unlikely) the buyers eventually coming up to meet the original reserve.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Oct 18, 1:23pm 1540340621

One foreign buyer injects $3,000,000 cash into the Auckland market. That money then gets spent on the next Auckland house $1,000,000, a purchase in the Hawkes Bay and a flat in Wellington. Plus all the subsequent transactions that the sellers of Hawkes bay, Auckland ($1,000,000) and Wellington property are then able to make. The impact is enormous when you actually think about it. Does explain why the bank shares are getting hammered at present, they have to reduce rates so the system they've bet the loan book in doesn't collapse overnight.
Have you ever watched dominoes falling in sequence? that's what the foreign buyer facilitated, without them, it's just debt that someone has to want to take on and be able to access to.

by rastus1 | 24th Oct 18, 2:17pm 1540343879

..you just need one buyer going to every auction on the weekend and being second highest bidder. 20 auctions and everyone thinks there are 20 wealthy bidders or more still to buy. When there was always only one (plus the 20 suckers).

Extreme example, but inc in a buy frenzy, easy to see how it keeps on keeping on...

by Nic Johnson | 24th Oct 18, 1:33pm 1540341203

Barfoot's agents with Chinese surnames were bloody busy last week... Just look over the results and count the Leung's, Zhou's and Chans representing sellers. Anyone spotted an increase in vacant 'ghost' homes going up for sale?

by saving4AUhouse | 24th Oct 18, 2:17pm 1540343869

Someone with the last name Leung or Chan is almost definitely not from mainland China, FWIW.

Probably ethnic chinese from Hong Kong or SEA.

by Chairman Moa | 24th Oct 18, 6:51pm 1540360307

Also Tong isn't strictly a Chinese name.

by dictator | 24th Oct 18, 2:05pm 1540343145

I have some Remuera apartments going cheap. As the listing says it's right in the DGZ. Think of the potential.

https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auctio…

by RickStrauss | 24th Oct 18, 2:24pm 1540344243

Ouch. Maybe a ground lease review coming up or something?

by Ex Expat | 24th Oct 18, 2:36pm 1540344987

Possibly a private leasehold which is worse. I saw one in Mission Bay. I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole. A trap set perfectly for a divorced spouse trying to stay in the same area as her ex family home.

by Chairman Moa | 24th Oct 18, 2:12pm 1540343551

Here's a real stat:
I left for Aust in 2011 and sold my house in Auckland (Central Auckland Postcode). It's been sold again recently and got 31.76% more than what they paid for it in 2011.

by Ex Expat | 24th Oct 18, 2:23pm 1540344196

Here's another real stat: 107 Melanesia Road sold for $1,055,000 on 18/9/12. It sold last week for $2,230,000 which is 111% more than the owner paid.

by Chairman Moa | 24th Oct 18, 3:05pm 1540346756

We both had a go at cherry picking but this time you win, congratulations..

by Ex Expat | 24th Oct 18, 3:14pm 1540347244

They are both data points and largely irrelevant to both of us as neither of us are buyers or sellers. We can surmise that 107 was a development purchase, I have no idea why your ex property only sold for what it did. I do recall you posting something when you sold it. I think we can both agree that the current market is stratospheric and we fail to see the value. My interest in posting is keeping the pundits honest. It's fact becoming clear how useful my Bank's Core Logic figure is as I don't have the energy to look at each sale. Right now the value is bang on the 2017 CV.

by BacktoPerth | 24th Oct 18, 8:57pm 1540367830

Heres another stat... highly qualified NZer was so significantly priced out of the market, even on his high NZ wage, that he said F €*k this, and went back to Perth...

by saving4AUhouse | 24th Oct 18, 2:19pm 1540343951

Who cares about Auckland.

If there's a big price correction in the regions, I'll change my name to boughtNZHouse4Cash.

by Pragmatist | 24th Oct 18, 2:29pm 1540344572

Where Auckland leads, the regions follow.
Whats pushing up regional prices.. foreign buyers and escaping Aucklanders. One of those taps just got turned off.. and that should stop/slow the Auckland Exodus, which will take demand off the regions.

by saving4AUhouse | 24th Oct 18, 3:51pm 1540349515

regional prices have gotten really stupid though. Rural service towns - one four square, no supermarket type places - have fixer upper 3 bedroom shit boxes selling for around $150,000.

by Pragmatist | 24th Oct 18, 8:05pm 1540364733

Maaate! you should jump at it.. get it signed up with a 20% deposit, and a 15year mortgage, then "lose" ya job, you and the mrs on the dole + accommodation supplement can cover the $212/week mortgage easy, grow ya own veges and let the govt buy you a house. Create a you-tube channel reviewing Xbox games or something and you're set for life.. mortgage free property owner in just 10 years!

/sarc

by saving4AUhouse | 24th Oct 18, 8:31pm 1540366266

Not going to lie - your idea is pretty tempting. Might as well milk this welfare state for all it's worth. Kind of a smart plan actually - work hard, save enough money to purchase most of a house, lose my job somehow, have kids, let the government support us and our mortgage, work on an online business - then when it takes off flip the property and leave for a lower tax jurisdiction.

by Pragmatist | 24th Oct 18, 9:02pm 1540368178

Low tax usually equals low service. Singapore for one.. is it really low tax when you pay 7% tax, and then another 20% of your income is compulsorily taken and placed in the CPF account to pay for healthcare and retirement? With the slight difference that anything left in your CPF fund when you kick the bucket goes to your partner/kids, its really not that different from ~25% tax a median wage earner in NZ pays with free healthcare and pension is it?

Rent isn't that cheap in singapore, and salaries look lower. Might not be the cheap paradise you expect. $440/week rent for a 45m2 studio apartment in an average area, from a senior software engineers salary of $70k.

And i Hope you don't like cars.. minimum 100% tax, up to 180% tax on cars.

by saving4AUhouse | 24th Oct 18, 9:10pm 1540368642

I never really considered singapore (you're right about the rents at least), but lol at some of yours assumptions.

1. I'm a millennial, We're not going to be getting NZ pensions. We'll just be paying for the previous generations.
2. Have you availed yourself of our 'free healthcare' before? To get decent care here you need to go private, no ifs or buts.

by mfd | 24th Oct 18, 9:17pm 1540369057

Working in healthcare, I can tell you that my specialty is essentially the same whether you go private or public. The public waiting times are short, treatment is the same and in some cases better, and we are larger with more experienced staff available for complex cases than our local private centre. The larger size makes it easier for us to keep up with newer techniques and implement them safely.

The Drs involved in treatment will be the same. The machines treating you are the same. The timelines are the same. All your money buys you is a nicer waiting room and a bit more time for people to fuss over you.

Other services may vary.

by saving4AUhouse | 24th Oct 18, 9:36pm 1540370212

well I hope my genetics/lifestyle lends myself to conditions that get treated by your specialty.

by KH | 25th Oct 18, 8:30am 1540409421

Working in healthcare. If your issue is something the public system is interested in. Then good. If not - you are screwed. New Zealanders just don't know the things they miss out on.

by Pragmatist | 25th Oct 18, 3:25pm 1540434327

Got any examples of things they are not interested in for those of us that haven't had the misfortune to encounter these things?

by Pragmatist | 24th Oct 18, 9:34pm 1540370094

Luckily I personally have had relatively few dealings with our healthcare system, but when I have, I've not had a problem, quite the opposite, fill in an admittance form and 15mins later was being seen by a doctor or in xray. The treatment and care my mother received from the public system was excellent overall. Its not dire, but I have seen the overcrowding at Middlemore Emergency department in the middle of winter.

It rather nice to know that if my appendix goes bad tonight, so long as I can reach a phone i'll be collected, transported, and treated, and the only bill I'll get is the ambulance fee of about $90, plus maybe a prescription charge of a few bucks.

by Nzdan | 25th Oct 18, 8:06am 1540407984

It's exactly what we're in the process of doing. Got the cheap mortgage living in the regions however we both still have our jobs at this point in time, but I've been tempted to hand in my notice, grow a beard and live off the tax payer.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Oct 18, 3:23pm 1540347789

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnnmmQb1XO4&t=75s

6 months on from this little message from Tony Alexander. What a charlatan. The recent auction clearance rates and soggy sales data suggest a far from rosy picture.

by dictator | 24th Oct 18, 6:22pm 1540358569

There's only so much I could watch of that. Some of his points were correct but he seemed oblivious to the fact that cutting off skytv and broadband at home could not possibly provide enough money to cover a house deposit. He pushed that after pointing out he spent $6k per year at cafes. He keeps shoveling the same nonsense.

by Roadhouse Blues | 24th Oct 18, 10:40pm 1540374048

In stagnant and falling markets auctions are a great way for realestate agents to educate client expectations without having to wait 6 months and bear accusations of being incompetent

by John2 | 26th Oct 18, 3:47pm 1540522038

Seems like everyone has a crystal ball now !
https://tmmonline.nz/article/976513803/comment-have-we-hit-the-bottom?u…