New residential property listings on Realestate.co.nz at an all time low for the month of October

Real estate sales work like this. If you cant séll your property for more than you paid for it, in most cases you dont sell.

There's always a small percentage that have to sell, be it because:
1. The bank forces them to sell,
2. Partnership splits,
3. Loss of employment,
4. Relocation for employment,
5. Estate sales,
6. Growing family.

I would suggest the past (larger) volume of sales can be attributed to people buying bigger houses or relocation to better areas (in an attempt to keep up with the Jones) by means of larger mortgages facilitated by the fair weather banksters. These banksters have now gone to ground, and in some cases now want their money back (or should I say their term depositors money back). In the case of the big 4, thankfully we now have a reserve bank governor who understands the risk these banks have exposed the term deposit holders to and asked them to shore up their balance sheets. Their parents are not interested in supporting them (and probably never have been), and only ever been interested in short term profit maximisation.

With less marginal lending now available, real estate transactions had to decline. Its just a question of how long will it be before an appropriate price correction is due. Labour are doing their best to keep the sinking ship afloat with home start incentives; which are only ever temporary; driven by re election appeal. I do pity the inexperienced that take advantage of these, as history has shown loan incentives can only distort the market for so long,

While interest rates are at historic lows, this is not a good sign and has more to do with keeping the banksters afloat (for a little while longer) than anything else. Take it from a seasoned investor, it is the best time to pay down debt than take some more on.

I notice the word sales omitted?
Lower than 2017 and 2018 in first 8m for Auckland

Ex Expat
Just putting my position on the table.
In anticipation of the QV results coming out in the next few days, while I see a firming in the Auckland market, as I have previously posted, I do not see the QV results necessarily reflecting this. This is due to the the basis of their data; not only are they over a three month period, but also the considerable time between offers being made and final settlement (whereas REINZ is unconditional). So I will be looking to REINZ data. :)

Population down?

Dgm
This is annual, YOY, spring on spring.
To make it clear - this spring's results are better than last year spring's.
Annual, YOY, is not comparing current results with winter results.
Pretty simple to understand.

The correlation or more accurately causation you describe of lower volumes = higher prices would be different to most historical trends. Lower stock and hence sales volumes typically put downward pressure on prices.

We shall see Fritz, I believe fewer vendors for the same amount of buyers (combined with low interest rates and upcoming lower LVR?) will lead to higher prices by March 2020

Today's column by Gregg adds to the weight of evidence that the housing market is beginning to move again - and notably in Auckland.

Indications are that we may see significant increases in average/median prices over coming months.

TTP

Mikekirk
Your postings have been claiming a collapse in market prices.
The above suggests that you don't seem to grasp a basic market 101 facts. Sorry to have to spell it out but clearly needed.
- An abundance or increasing number of properties - a buyers market. Bad news for sellers as greater pressure to get a sale so downward pressure on prices.
- A shortage or decreasing number of properties - a sellers market. Bad news for buyers as greater pressure to get a buy so upward pressure on prices.
Keep doing that historic analysis of data and a year after a turn in the market you will be able to identify the turn. :)

Not seeing that. I live in Meadowbank, quite a few properties are for sale in surrounding streets, but no leaflets.

Not seeing any letterbox mail drops or door knocking by agents. Auckland Eastern Suburbs.

Some in Remuera, but they are a constant since I moved here about 5 years ago, so no real change.

Yes exactly and that is a huge problem for NZ and in particular Auckland's housing market. Everyone here got so addicted to dodgy overseas money pouring in from China, and now that that money is gone, we're trying to make residents and FTB's make up the huge short fall to maintain prices by getting themselves in to massive amounts of debt that they can't hope to repay.

Mikekirk
You seem besotted with the notion of the importance of Chinese involvement in the Auckland market.
The "biggest impact on Auckland housing market . . Chinese money". Where have you been?
The biggest impact on the Auckland housing market have been the low NZ mortgage rates and in more recent years as far as Auckland is concerned, issues related to both affordability and future of the market. As for low mortgage rates - don't look to Chinese money but rather RBNZ and OCR.
Note that RBNZ introduced LVRs not to control Chinese money but rather every NZder and his dog speculating by going out and buying property.
Like Auckland, prices have risen throughout most of New Zealand as a result of the low mortgage rates. Those Chinese property investors wouldn't know where Gisborne, Palmerston North and even Hokitika were, let alone buying property there to influence those markets.
From memory, some official stats indicated that the number of overseas sales was estimated to be 3% and then, while many, the Chinese were less than 50% of total foreign buyers.
You are hanging onto a modern-day version of "reds under the bed".
Cheers

Yichuan Bank in China is on the VERGE OF COLLAPSE!

This is the 4th Chinese bank that has been in MAJOR TROUBLE since May 2019!

Yes, price doesn't really enter into it for existing home owners, buying and selling in the same market is effectively house swapping with a bit of change here or there. Prices could be double what they are, and it'll be business as usual.

It's when there's an imbalance of those trying to exit the market vs trying to enter the market that creates an issue.

Well said. One comment that says what 78 others were trying to .... even if they didn’t know it.

This is probably the best comment I've ever read on this site. Sadly most of the other comments here always devolve immediately into who's predicted what, why they are wrong and X is right and personal attacks. Almost all of them are dominated by the same usual suspects and anyone that disagrees with their rhetoric is either a "DGM" or a "Spruiker".

Biggest building efforts round our way are housing NZ and community housing providers, builds that never hit the open market.

It's an excellent question Glitzy.
Apart from the minority which are Housing NZ, I assume there are lots of very small townhouse / house developments spread all over Auckland region, plus a few chunky developments eg. Hobsonville, Auranga, Milldale where you will regularly see 10 -20 homes for sale.
There will be some retirement units.
Then there will be new build houses that are being built by owners of land, rather than built to sell on the open market.
Then as you say some might be being held back.
But yes it does seem that there aren't as many on the market as the building stats would suggest.

There are still opportunities out there for those that want to pursue them and become financially independent.
Purchased a near new property today which will give a return of over 6% and undervalued
Moan and groan as much as you want, but the doom and gloom merchants should start doing the business or you will be left further behind.

Indeed, I said a buyer's market is not defined by more buyers buying but rather by more sellers selling as this gives more choices to the buyers and pushes prices down as a result. I stand by this.

What's with the "spruiker" obsession? It states the same as in the article above, which is low volumes which does not equate to low prices

Personally in ChCh We are not finding that at all.
What I will say is that the property rental market is just not AucklAnd.
Secondly, private fulltime professional property investors tend to be far better at finding good tenants than paid property managers as they have more time to concentrate on the business.

I agree. It seems like vendors might be holding in order to not take a lower price, or even to manage supply. But how much stock is building up to be released? What impact will a flood of supply have on prices? And what kind of events could trigger them to be listed?