Number of properties auctioned dipped in first week of November but sales volumes rose

Property

Just over two-thirds of the latest weekly auction sales were for more than their rating valuations

16th Nov 19, 6:26am by Greg Ninness

There was a dip in the number of property auctions monitored by interest.co.nz at the start of November but the number of properties that were sold increased.

Interest.co.nz monitored 261 residential property auctions throughout the country in the week from 4-10 November, down from 293 the previous week.

Of those, sales were achieved on 141 properties, up from 130 the previous week, which pushed the sales rate up to 54% from 44%..

Prices were generally firmer with just over two thirds (68%) selling for more than their rating valuations.

There continued to be very little variation between the results in Auckland and the rest of the country.

In Auckland the sales rate was 55% and prices also firmed with 65% selling for more than their rating valuations.

And there are very few properties having their auctions postponed or being withdrawn from sale, with just one postponement and one withdrawal at the latest auctions monitored.

Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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52 Comments

by Jaf | 16th Nov 19, 8:18am 1573845522

I would not read too much into auction sales.They are just a miniscule proportion of the available listings as to constitute a barometer of the housing market. For Auckland alone, as of today on TradeMe, its 11,217.How many are via auction?

Instead of looking at auction sales figures, I may as well read tea leaves.

by house hunter | 16th Nov 19, 8:13am 1573845232

So what do the tea leaves say?

by BadRobot | 16th Nov 19, 8:36am 1573846560

Or entrails of suitably sacrificed small rodent........

by Zachary Smith | 16th Nov 19, 9:14am 1573848850

Auction results are a good bellwether of the state of the market right now. It would be a bit odd if auctions were going great while the sales by negotiation were in crisis. There is a much closer connection between auctions and the property market than with tea leaves and entrails. I'm pretty certain about that.

by BadRobot | 16th Nov 19, 10:05am 1573851955

Sales may be going "great" - but it's not really sales that matter - it's the price. You are making an assumption about the nature of the relationship between auctions and the property market - which may be positive or it could be negative.

My comment about entrails has more to do with the vacuous comments made by many about the health or otherwise of the Auckland / New Zealand housing market, the world economy - imminent collapse or otherwise, US-China trade relationship, climate change, the theist v's atheist debate or any other debate which is currently doing the rounds. IMHO I don't think anyone really knows.

by Zachary Smith | 16th Nov 19, 10:38am 1573853909

Prices are good, it's all positive.

by CJ099 | 16th Nov 19, 12:41pm 1573861297

Have you been able to sell your ivory tower yet Zachary? According to the QV figures for your neck of the woods property prices are still selling below CV. So I guess the market is positive if you feel that selling below the 2017 value is a good thing.

by stuart786786 | 16th Nov 19, 9:07am 1573848436

In October and early November - in auction room, houses that are being sold are going at much better price than, what otherwise they would have fetched , if sold earlier in the year.

Like it or not - housing market in Auckland has a positive vibe/sentiment. If it is just a dead cat bounce, will know soon but am doubtfull that it is a dead cat jump.

Market has bottomed out (whatever fall had to happen has happened).

by alittle | 16th Nov 19, 10:30am 1573853415

Agree saw few houses in Manukau on the auction result and in the first page itself can can see 89 Reevs road went for 1280000 with a CV of 1050000 (230000 more than CV), 13 Carousel Crescent went for 1360000 with a CV of 1175000 (185000 above CV) and many which have sold below CV are also not much below.

Besides data, have been to Barfoot and Raywhite Auction and can see the positive sentiments all round though not all houses are being sold but still houses that are well presented and good are going for premium.

Also another observation is that RE Agents are not shying away with high expectation or asking which was not the case earlier -them being confident is result of current high sentiment (Though am confused as what has happened - Besides interest rate - that the sentiments changed so drastically)

So, yes it seems that the market has changed unless it is a false alarm but like you stuart am too of the opinion that it is not a false alarm but will know soon - if the trend continues over X'Mas.

by Dgm | 16th Nov 19, 10:48am 1573854484

Influenced by MSM, such as House price boom around the corner..

by alittle | 16th Nov 19, 11:23am 1573856620

Though feel that the current positive sentiment is not a false alarm but was reading one of the comment earlier that too made sense.

Many houses that are comming in the market have been purchased in last 2 or 3 years by investors/speculators so if the market is changing - strong, why are they selling at no loss no profit or with minimmum loss - if they have waited for 2 or 3 years could esily wait for some more time to get profit - IF market is changing and is not a false sentiment - why are they jumping ?

by taimaiakka0 | 16th Nov 19, 1:32pm 1573864360

Yeah point to ponder. If the market is on rise why investors who bought in 2016 onwards are rushing to sell now instead of waiting for few more months (When have waited for years and also inyerest rates are low) unless are using this window to sell and free themselves with no loss or little loss (minimizing the loss)

by Houseworks | 16th Nov 19, 11:28am 1573856938

stuart786786 "dead cat jump"
It is not possible for a non-breathing, non-moving feline to jump or do anything else stuart. A Jumping Jack is a very different thing and this market movement feels like it has life. Good to hear that you have been attending house auctions and monitoring the market. I am very surprised and happy by your statement that you believe that the "market has bottomed out"

by stuart786786 | 16th Nov 19, 11:32am 1573857140

I am just saying what am observing but without foreign money / money laundering, how many FHB Could afford million dollar or even $800 or $900s house in Auckland is a question mark to me and with overall ecenomy situation, it is doubtfull that any movement in house price can sustain despite low interest, which is a new normal now.

So it is wait and watch : If RE Agents gets what they are asking in next few months than yes the market has bottomed out otherise the next fall, if it happens will be actual and worse.

by CJ099 | 16th Nov 19, 12:44pm 1573861492

Your view is correct Stuart. Just take a look at the QV figures for Auckland and you can see that properties are still selling below their 2017 CV value. https://www.qv.co.nz/property-trends/residential-sales-prices

by Houseworks | 16th Nov 19, 4:50pm 1573876236

Stuart's made the point the market has bottomed. You made the point that the current prices are below what they were previously. That creates a good buying situation for first home buyers and others who want to trade up as they will get more for their money. In terms of affordability it is the best it has been for five years
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/102221/auckland-housing-now-afforda…

by RickStrauss | 18th Nov 19, 9:44am 1574023447

Looking through the auction results it looks incredibly variable. Ordinary houses in ordinary suburbs not doing as well vs their 2017 CV as renovations or the odd particularly nicely located or designed house.

by Dgm | 16th Nov 19, 9:09am 1573848588

aucklands population grew by 24,400 to September 2019, Houses ccc'd to sep 2019, 11,000... which at an occupancy rate of 3.2, can cater to 35,200 people..
the so called housing shortage Myth is going to explode when a recession hits..

by Due Diligence | 16th Nov 19, 9:58am 1573851488

I have some questions for you. Where did you find the 24,400 figure? Seems low. I've seen the 3.2 occupancy figure in an infometrix article, but I have no idea how they came up with it - do you? Seems high. What about the existing houses that were demolished to make way for some of those new builds?

by Dgm | 16th Nov 19, 10:15am 1573852522

Question 1: stats nz, explore using infosphere,
Question 2: it varies between 3 and 3.2 in various articles, but main source being stats at 3.2, in saying that unofficially it would be much higher when the dodgy ones are included.. for example, yesterday's article, 2 beddie, 8 bunk beds.. stats don't capture that..
Question 3: its hard to account for, but the replacement ratio is quite high, unitary plan is squeezing in apartments where a single house use to exist

If I may add and sorry to disappoint, latest rents in Auckland have actually dropped, clearest sign that dwellings are more than demand. A so called shortage would never have resulted in rents drop

by Due Diligence | 16th Nov 19, 2:38pm 1573868328

Can’t find that Auckland population growth figure on Stats NZ, I think it is much higher. Can you post a link please?

Does 3.2 occupancy rate come from the census?

by Dgm | 16th Nov 19, 2:48pm 1573868929

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/national-population-esti…

Click on infoshare and navigate from there

Yes

by Due Diligence | 16th Nov 19, 4:09pm 1573873750

I did - still can't find your population figure. I smell a bullsh*t.

by GGP | 16th Nov 19, 4:18pm 1573874338

I think he did this: https://ibb.co/QcgWgBB

And then 1,642,800 - 1,618,400 = 24,400.

by Due Diligence | 17th Nov 19, 11:25am 1573943129

Seems very low when you look at annual net immigration plus natural increase nationally...

by GGP | 17th Nov 19, 11:40am 1573944044

I vaguely remember something about net migration being adjusted down recently, so it might have something to do with that. Or we're overestimating how many of the migrants actually come to Auckland/how many Aucklanders move to other cities.

by Dgm | 17th Nov 19, 12:17pm 1573946232

That's right., based on the new 12/16 rule, the initial estimates for 2018 was dropped by 84k.. which again Due Chilli rebuked, not surprising

I've been stating that Auckland has been losing population to the region's..

Hamilton and tauranga has absorbed many..

There's a billion dollar infrastructure spend in Hamilton, they are growing fast.. better houses than Auckland

by Due Diligence | 17th Nov 19, 1:23pm 1573950193

Net immigration was 54,623 according to the new system, which is still high. Plus natural population increase and were looking at total national population increase of about 80k. But supposedly only a third of this increase was in Auckland? I know better than stats NZ, they are a mess. I'll put Auckland's increase at 30k.

by GGP | 17th Nov 19, 1:44pm 1573951444

"I know better than stats NZ"

I can't even tell if you're being serious or not.

by Due Diligence | 17th Nov 19, 2:16pm 1573953379

I'm not sure if I'm being serious either to be honest

by Dgm | 17th Nov 19, 1:51pm 1573951891

Lol.. you can take the title "joker of the year "

by Dgm | 16th Nov 19, 4:33pm 1573875184

Your ignorance is bullshit..

As I said the other day, you're like a kid that needs to be spoon fed or should I say Bottle fed

by Fritz | 16th Nov 19, 4:50pm 1573876207

We just need to accept that the spruikers are not generally the most intelligent types

by Houseworks | 16th Nov 19, 7:51pm 1573887106

Are you talking for yourself again Frutz, funny how the one who doesnt like ad hominem is the one who starts it.

by GGP | 16th Nov 19, 8:06pm 1573887982

It is hilarious how easy you are to bait. Aren't you the guy that said another commenter was held back at school? Are you really this sensitive?

by Houseworks | 16th Nov 19, 8:30pm 1573889405

Dont you think its past your bedtime, run along.

by Dgm | 16th Nov 19, 8:40pm 1573890037

Oh my, grandma is preaching.. and sounds grumpy

by CJ099 | 16th Nov 19, 10:12am 1573852337

Yes there could well be a recession on the cards not just here but globally things are slowing down with more debt gained particularly for China. News from the Institute of International Finance: Global debt is on course to end 2019 at a record high of more than NZ$400 tln, more than 3½ times global GDP, and up +6.25% in a year, largely driven recently by growth in the US and China (The New Zealand share is NZ$95,000 for each person).
https://www.iif.com/

by Dgm | 16th Nov 19, 11:03am 1573855404

The reality may be that CBs now realize that they have left the tap open for too long... most of them held rates recently..

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

by Dgm | 16th Nov 19, 11:52am 1573858342

Those who are disillusioned by the thought that cheap money is attainable forever..

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

by Glitzy | 16th Nov 19, 12:19pm 1573859998

With all these positive stories about housing markets pushing upward in Auckland can anyone explain why top end rents are 10%+ lower than this time last year?

by Fritz | 16th Nov 19, 12:42pm 1573861374

The stories are just spruiking by the usual suspects. The facts - rents and prices- don't support the BS at all, in Auckland.
I will go with the facts every day of the week.

by Dgm | 16th Nov 19, 2:54pm 1573869291

Out of curiosity I visited 3 open homes and I was the only 1.
1 has a contract ... so was it a knee jerk reaction to MSM hype or west Auckland not getting the same attention?

by THE MAN 2 | 16th Nov 19, 5:16pm 1573877806

Spruikers as you put it are just everyday people who believe in what they are doing just as the doomsters hope that prices of housing in Auckland will drop so that they have a better chance of owning one.
If that wasn’t the case then why would anyone be so hung up on wanting prices to drop?
Personally don’t care what prices do, as if you have a decent portfolio with good equity, you will always do nicely in any property market.

by Fritz | 16th Nov 19, 5:54pm 1573880080

No spruikers are people who appear regularly here and in the media to spruik up the market with unbalanced hyperbole. Mr Church is the most obvious public figure spruiker.
I don’t call an investor who quietly goes about their business a spruiker.

by THE MAN 2 | 17th Nov 19, 10:24am 1573939493

Fritz, most socalled spruikers wouldn’t be saying anything on here if the doom and gloom merchants towards property did not say anything.
What property spruikers on here say doesn’t alter the property prices one iota however the doom and gloom merchants do put some people off from buying and therefore has cost many people getting into the property market.

by Jaf | 16th Nov 19, 6:02pm 1573880544

If the housing market is on an upswing, surely it would be reflected in prices achieved.Why are RE agents rather coy about revealing the actual sales prices achieved??Look at the "Sold" listings on a RE Agent's profile & you will see "Price Withheld" on most. If prices were fantastic as played up media,bank economists & spruikers with vested interests, would not these RE agents be yelling out like cockerel on a dung heap?

by THE MAN 2 | 17th Nov 19, 10:20am 1573939205

A lot of vendors don’t want others to know what their property sold for!

by Dgm | 17th Nov 19, 10:23am 1573939399

Lol

by gordon | 17th Nov 19, 12:35pm 1573947331

Especially in poor old Christchurch where the market is tired at best.

by THE MAN 2 | 17th Nov 19, 3:46pm 1573958788

Gordon, stick to your outings.
ChCh has plenty of sales and building going on.
The place to invest

by Ex Expat | 17th Nov 19, 11:34am 1573943698

Cmat. 6D Brookfield St sold at Auction for $2,175,000 or 95.6% of 2017 RV. CoreLogic has my home at 95.2% of 2017 RV as at 10/11/19 so pretty close to market.