Barfoot & Thompson's November sales at highest level in four years

Property

Barfoot & Thompson's average and median prices are within a hair's breadth of breaking previous records

3rd Dec 19, 10:26am by Greg Ninness

Sales at Barfoot & Thompson were the highest they have been for the month of November since 2015 and both average and median selling prices were at their second highest level ever.

Auckland's largest real estate agency sold 960 residential properties in November, up from 824 in October and the highest number for the month of November since 2015 when it sold 986.

Prices were also firmer, with the average selling price for the month hitting $963,671, which has only been exceeded once before, in March 2017 when it hit $968,570.

The median selling price was $891,000, beaten only by the all time high of $900,000 which was also set in March 2017.

However, vendors seem to be slow to have picked up on the buoyant conditions, with new listings at their lowest level in 11 years.

Barfoot's received 1517 new residential listings in November, down from 1605 in October and 1606 in November last year.

It was the lowest number of new listings received by the agency in any November month since 2008.

That has also reduced the total number of homes the agency had available for sale, with Barfoot's having 3703 residential properties available for sale at the end of November, down 24% compared to November last year the lowest stock level for the month of November since 2015.

That will limit buyer choice and should see the market finishing the year on a firm note before it starts to wind down for the Christmas break.

It also bodes well for a firm market when it kicks back into life in 2020, when potential vendors who may have been holding off listing their property while they waited to see which way the market winds were blowing, decide to commit to a sale over the main summer season.

The buoyant conditions may also encourage potential buyers who have not felt pressured to commit to a sale over winter/spring to take the plunge.

"When high quality properties reach the market there is determined competition among committed buyers which is driving prcies higher," Barfoot & Thompson director Kiri Barfoot said.

"Based on the high number of signed up and conditional sales in the pipeline, the prospect of November being a rogue month is unlikely and we see an active market remaining through to year end and continuing into the first quarter of 2020," she said.

The interactive chart below shows the trends in Barfoot's average and median selling prices, listings, stock levels and price growth.

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Source: Barfoot and Thompson

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120 Comments

by Due Diligence | 3rd Dec 19, 10:31am 1575322271

It seems the buyer's market is no more

by tothepoint - d… | 3rd Dec 19, 11:19am 1575325141

DGM dead in the water.

They are but a shiver - looking for a spine to go up.

TTP

by mikekirk29 | 3rd Dec 19, 10:52am 1575323562

Er, that is what you get for believing what you want to believe and looking only at headlines.
Go read full report online and compare 12m and November figs for all areas and overall.
Total sales are flat

by Houseworks | 3rd Dec 19, 3:54pm 1575341676

DGM is usually a frequent contributor, but not here not today

by Housingisoverpriced | 3rd Dec 19, 12:38pm 1575329925

Martin Dunn is back flogging properties on the TV so its a full court press.

by BigDaddy | 3rd Dec 19, 10:31am 1575322262

Well that's a big improvement I must say.
Too much of this good news and the Capital gains Tax will be dusted off again.

by Due Diligence | 3rd Dec 19, 10:41am 1575322870

by BigDaddy | 17th Jan 19, 10:34am
These figures are a portend of things to come.
Frustrated sellers will start to slash prices as autumn and winter approaches.

by BigDaddy | 22nd May 19, 10:55am
First Home Buyers are about the only buyers in the market at all...Anything much over $750K cannot be considered. The Auckland residential market cannot survive on naive FHBs who will be the first to be dragged down as the market slips further.

Wolly Noland wrong again...

by mikekirk29 | 3rd Dec 19, 10:51am 1575323498

Er, suggest you take a closer look at where was selling a lot more, where was selling no more and where was selling bugger all

by Due Diligence | 3rd Dec 19, 10:56am 1575323811

Mike "I Only Care About Volumes So Don't Even Think About Mentioning Prices Even Though This Is What Is Most Relevant To Most People" Kirk

by mikekirk29 | 3rd Dec 19, 11:11am 1575324667

Most people. Great generalisation

by MadMax | 3rd Dec 19, 1:14pm 1575332077

Very succinct DD

by Yvil | 3rd Dec 19, 10:58am 1575323929

Big Daddy's posts were about prices, not number of sales, how much a house sells for is what matters for most, unless you're an agent relying on commissions, then how many houses sell matters, they are 2 different metrics, Mike

by mikekirk29 | 3rd Dec 19, 11:12am 1575324743

Yes I agree with u on that

by BigDaddy | 3rd Dec 19, 11:23am 1575325392

One summer blip does not a market make. Let's see if by next winter it all reverses again.
FHB's are still the main driver of the market, as shown by the large slip in prices and turnover of more expensive properties.
Wolly is still the best at making predictions which, it should be noted, is not an exact science. He is right more often than not.

by Due Diligence | 3rd Dec 19, 11:25am 1575325533

Sounds like he's a blind squirrel that happens to find a nut every so often.

by MadMax | 3rd Dec 19, 1:16pm 1575332180

A broken clock, twice a day

by Due Diligence | 3rd Dec 19, 3:59pm 1575341987

Indeed

by richard1965 | 3rd Dec 19, 12:13pm 1575328421

Agree that it is not just FHB buyer as million dollar plus houses are been sold which was not the case earlier.

by xingmowang | 3rd Dec 19, 10:34am 1575322488

Who needs to be singled out and scapegoated this time?

Chinese migrants have been singled out and scapegoated. Who would be the next given foreign ban has been in place and capital control by the Chinese government has been implemented.

Come on. Let's blame someone here.

by Mrs The Point | 3rd Dec 19, 10:45am 1575323122

Cry me a river. Have the Chinese People got hurt feelings again?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_erzKlLYC8

by Chairman Moa | 3rd Dec 19, 11:09am 1575324597

Be careful, there are some old maps lurking about and they are bounded to be found..

by Rolo | 3rd Dec 19, 12:54pm 1575330890

Do not forget that Singaporean are NOT exempted from the foreign buyers ban. 80% of Singaporean are Chinese by race (but not by nationality). A quick check of Singapore private property prices (propertyguru.com.sg, select "condo", "private", etc.) will help you understand why NZ properties are considered a bargain, even at today's prices. It is not fair to constantly insinuate corruption or money laundering just because they are Chinese. Most of them work 10-12 hours every day and save 50% or more of their income, and in an environment that is ridiculously competitive. (See https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/singapore-overtakes-us-to-become-most-co...)

by house hunter | 4th Dec 19, 5:58am 1575392301

Singaporeans have a partial exemption, as explained here:
https://www.linz.govt.nz/overseas-investment/information-for-buying-or-…

by johntheshen | 5th Dec 19, 10:28pm 1575538103

The ones who are getting their feelings hurt can't visit your link. Great firewall~

For the rest of us, we actually agree with you politically (we also hate the commie-lovers back home), but at the same time are very happy collecting rent from hire-purchase addict kiwi families to pay off our perpetual interest-only loan of 3-4 investment properties. The ban doesn't affect us at all. Just waiting for the sales volume to pick up, continue to do leveraged Buy&Hold and rent to more blue collar kiwis with poor spending habit.

Only way to stop us is some facist concentration camp crap, which certainly felt like it was heading that way in 2014 with the personal data-leaking witch-hunt.

P.S. May be you're butt-hurt that we have parents who use their lifesavings to give the children a head-start with good education and downpayment for the first home. Mostly Chinese parents, but kiwis too, it's called the upper class.

by bw | 3rd Dec 19, 10:54am 1575323679

The party to blame is the same one that it's been for 40 years or more - The New Zealand Government(s).
Government failure to enact enforceable policy in the interests of New Zealanders was, and is, the cause of the problem.
At each turn of the electoral cycle, 'changes' have been made to the residential property market, and a variety of entities have taken advantage of whatever loopholes they can find - legal and otherwise.
Until Government Policy recognises that housing is not a commodity to be traded for gain, but a utility to be maximised in the interest of the country, ( and yes, there is a place in that for genuine investors/landlords to provide accommodation) then 'blame' will fall on those who otherwise should not assume it.

by J.C. | 3rd Dec 19, 12:06pm 1575328015

Until Government Policy recognises that housing is not a commodity to be traded for gain, but a utility to be maximised in the interest of the country, ( and yes, there is a place in that for genuine investors/landlords to provide accommodation) then 'blame' will fall on those who otherwise should not assume it.

Easier said than done. NZ's "savings" is overwhelmingly tied up and related to the globally coordinated, credit-driven asset price expansion. Without the house, most NZ h'holds barely have two sticks to rub together. I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that even if house prices fell 20%, the economy would go into a menacing, self-reinforcing downward spiral. It doesn't matter how much license the banks have to lend money into existence.

Therefore, expect any ruling elite to keep the duality (1. Maintain house prices at any cost; 2. Fiddle at the edges to make it look as if they're going to deliver for younger and future generations) unless some external factor brings the whole thing down in a screaming heap.

by Houseworks | 3rd Dec 19, 5:06pm 1575345963

Investors got more interested in resi property after the 87 share crash. Then when labour came in in 1999 they allowed tax deductions at 39 percent so property took off some more. Before ALL of this there was personal retirement savings in the 1970s which muldoon stopped in favour of National Super. The greedy back-pocket voters thought it was the right thing and they voted for it.

by estateagent | 3rd Dec 19, 10:56am 1575323794

Jian Yang will make sure the Chinese migration floodgates are opened up once Simon or Judith are PM later next year
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/13/46657/national-mp-trained-by-chin…

by printer8 | 3rd Dec 19, 11:41am 1575326501

Hi xingmowang
I always remeber the following dialougue from Mississippi Burning. The last line is the most significant and true:

Anderson : Where does it come from? All this hatred?
Anderson : You know, when I was a little boy, there was an old negro farmer that lived down the road from us, name of Monroe. And he was... well, I guess he was just a little luckier than my daddy was. He bought himself a mule. That was a big deal around that town. My daddy hated that mule, 'cause his friends were always kidding him that they saw Monroe out plowing with his new mule, and Monroe was going to rent another field now he had a mule. One morning, that mule showed up dead. They poisoned the water. After that, there wasn't any mention about that mule around my daddy. It just never came up. One time, we were driving down that road, and we passed Monroe's place and we saw it was empty. He just packed up and left, I guess, he must of went up north or something. I looked over at my daddy's face. I knew he done it. He saw that I knew. He was ashamed. I guess he *was* ashamed. He looked at me and said, "If you ain't better than a nigger, son, who are you better than?"
Ward : You think that's an excuse?
Anderson : No it's not an excuse. It's just a story about my daddy.
Ward : Where's that leave you?
Anderson : My old man was just so full of hate that he didn't know that bein' poor was what was killin' him.

by Houseworks | 3rd Dec 19, 5:12pm 1575346332

"bein' poor was what was killin' him."
What about pride and envy? The happiest communities actually are poor.

by richard1965 | 3rd Dec 19, 12:16pm 1575328570

Not denying earlier boom was result of Chineese buyers - driven by them and supported by National government - can check with any RE Agent.

by printer8 | 3rd Dec 19, 1:35pm 1575333328

Hi Richard
I have just checked with a Auckland REA I know - he says "utter bollocks" which seems to totally destroy your assertion. He reckoned it was cheap mortgage rates fulelled by locals speculating.
Talked to another REA in Gisborne - great price rises there. His comment was "What Chinese? Never saw them here in Gisborne".

by theglc | 4th Dec 19, 11:02pm 1575453752

# Free Tibet
# Free Hong Kong
# Free Taiwan

by johntheshen | 5th Dec 19, 9:57pm 1575536258

For a property market with ~6% annualised growth, and bank offering perpetual interest-free loan with easy access to capital via revolving credit, only low income earners or people with commitment issues would not take advantage of this. Unfortunately in most cases, kiwis.

Most of the "Chinese"speculators are not the fresh-out-of-boat commie-lovers, for most, they are high income earners (mostly from the IT industry), bought their first property in early career, filled up the house with tenants. Then they wait till there's a bit cap gain and salary raise to get more loan to buy more investment properties using leveraged buy&hold, and occasionally enjoy spending with the profit from the revolving credit.

(it's not ethical or sustainable to speculate you may say, but smart people do this, Chinese and kiwis. This is just how capitalism work, especially in a badly regulated market.)

“Chinese" parents do pour their lifesavings to give to their child a head start with good education and downpayment for the house though. So do the upper middle class of the kiwi family. The blue collars kiwi parents has no lifesavings due to their debt heavy spending habit. Can't blame this on another race.

If all the Chinese people you know are FOB ones that simply get offended by these hashtags, may be it's your problem. Make more quality upper class international friends.

by bw | 3rd Dec 19, 10:39am 1575322796

Every now and then the market gives us all one last chance!
No one knows exactly when death is going to arrive, and when it does, there's often a disposal process afterwards.
We have just gone through that and, contrary to my expectations, hoped for "one last gasp!" in the property market to move on a difficult family inheritance.
It came, and we did. In 'normal times' we'd have had it on our collective hands for years.
So "Three Cheers, for the recovery!" and I hope anyone else who wants or needs to sell property sees this 'bounce' for what it is - perhaps, their Last Chance.
After all, "You haven't made anything until the money is in the bank!"

by mikekirk29 | 3rd Dec 19, 10:50am 1575323419

Conditions are not "buoyant"
Take a closer look.
S Auckland and Eastern suburbs, Pakuranga/Howick all up big.
All that is North of bridge is flat or down.
Central is getting smashed due to OBB comparison on 12m ago.
Total sales shown on residential report are flat on November 2018.
The total 12m sales, compared to previous 12m are down 7%
Excluding S Auckland, November sales down 4.3%
What are they selling in up areas: new builds under $800k.
So, it is not vendors not being tempted to sell, it is developers selling cheap stuff to FHB.
A little longer, I am sure would have meant better analysis

by cmat | 3rd Dec 19, 12:07pm 1575328062

Eastern suburbs up big? Nope.

If you're talking data in B&T's 'Residential Sales Report' - I've tried to run numbers on that data, its all over the shop from month-to-month.
Can't conclude anything from it.

Properties are selling faster - but looking at pairs, there are big hits.

by estateagent | 3rd Dec 19, 10:53am 1575323600

The market will pump once Simon Bridges is PM - he will open the immigration floodgates with a 2 Chinese to 1 Indian ratio https://www.indianweekender.co.nz/Pages/ArticleDetails/7/9938/New-Zeala…

by Yvil | 3rd Dec 19, 10:54am 1575323671

Getting closer…

by Shoreman | 3rd Dec 19, 11:07am 1575324469

Yvil - I think your March quarter predict of a all time high is safe - well done !

by J.C. | 3rd Dec 19, 11:32am 1575325977

Yvil - I think your March quarter predict of a all time high is safe - well done !

I see. Every suburban NZer seems to think they're Gandalf when it comes to the future direction of house prices.

by Mrs The Point | 3rd Dec 19, 11:43am 1575326628

"For even the very wise cannot see all ends." - Gandalf, The Fellowship of the Ring

by Yvil | 3rd Dec 19, 4:56pm 1575345403

… but very few get it right… repeatedly

by J.C. | 3rd Dec 19, 5:36pm 1575347809

OK, are you suggesting that you're in the inner sanctum with Ashley Church and high priestess Bindi?

by Yvil | 3rd Dec 19, 5:50pm 1575348604

No, I'm suggesting I get it right often, like predicting lower interest rates for the last 4 years when all were saying inflation is around the corner, like calling the 0.5% OCR cut in August, like saying in August that 2 year rates will be at 3.49% by the end of September, like calling that WP will be kingmaker the week after J Key resigned, despite Nat polls being sky high and Lab's extremely low

by J.C. | 3rd Dec 19, 9:11pm 1575360677

Well first of all, inflation is alive and well, just not in the oft quoted CPI. If you haven't noticed, asset prices globally and in NZ have been going up. This is the intention of both monetary policy and QE. Therefore, your claim about "inflation" is not really correct. Calling IR cuts is no different than a binary guess.

by printer8 | 3rd Dec 19, 10:54am 1575323698

Despite being rubbished by some for posting so at the time, there were early signs a few months ago of the Auckland market firming. I will also stand by my postings over the past six months or so suggesting that FHB should be looking to purchase. I said buying well was a more important and significant consideration than the movement of the market.
I make this point as those predicting a bubble burst, and more so over the past six months or so, a slowly leaking bubble (in one case up to eight years) did so by making unsubstainitated wild statements.
I don't claim to be clever - rather one who just simply looks at the indicators and apply those on balance. It is a pity that those who scaremonger don't do the same.
These unsusbstainiated comments continue with claims that simply money laundarying and forign buyers are causing the upswing - clearly these people have no experience of systems in place to prevent this. There has also been a claim that Auckland property market is a ponzi scheme; no, it as about people's homes and responsible investment and the market and price is simply influenced by supply and demand factors.
So where is th emarket headed now?
There is always unpredictable factors and risk to anything; the global economic headwinds currently present a degree of uncertainity and risk, and one can even factor in natural disasters - such as the earthquake subsequently affected the Christchurch property prices. There is also unknown personal risk factors when buying a property; a marriage break-up, serious illness, or loss of job.
So while there is always a degree of uncertainity, one needs to be prudent, and for that reason I have always qualified that one should be paying down debt as quickly as practical.
I firmly believe that many of those positng wild unsubstainiated comments regarding property are - being kind - frustrasted at affordability issues. Equally there are those who are just simply very envious losers in life.

by tothepoint - d… | 3rd Dec 19, 10:59am 1575323967

Well spoken, printer8.

TTP

by Shoreman | 3rd Dec 19, 11:06am 1575324392

Printer8 - Indeed a good summary !

by J.C. | 3rd Dec 19, 11:37am 1575326279

Despite being rubbished by some for posting so at the time

Meh. Your opinion is sprinkled with so much of the "other" that it's more a demonstration of what you don't want to see happen. One big cognitive bias. Mike Hosking uses a similar tactic. Does little more than expose the inability of middle NZ to artfully tackle these kind of issues.

by cmat | 3rd Dec 19, 1:01pm 1575331310

So anyone who slightly disagrees with you is wrong, and if there is a big market downturn you've given yourself a massive out by blithely giving a passing mention to the risk of "global headwinds"... which is exactly what those who disagree with you believe is responsible for current market conditions and has the potential to catalyse a downturn.

Does that sum it up?

by printer8 | 3rd Dec 19, 2:14pm 1575335675

Hi cmat
I don't necessary think that those who disagree are wrong - I just would like to see some justification which is sadly and consistently lacking and is stated in terms of an unjustified certainity.
As to me having an out. There is never ever certainity; when one is looking at the market, one considers the drivers as they are currently but also the longer term. The longer term is always going to be uncertain and that is just a risk and one needs to be prudent in terms of that risk. So, the market is looking positive but there is risk (both wider and personal) so pay down debt. That is a sound premise for FHB.
As for a downturn; I am not going to live my life in fear. Interestingly the reality was the GFC fuelled house prices through cheap mortgage rates (more so than Chinese money).
So what is currently for the future? Well I think that the current drivers (e.g. high immigration) are likely to continue. If there is significant fallout from the economic headwinds (or migration turns to high exodus or interest rates go through the roof - but both seemingly unlikely) I would reconsider the position. However, the RBNZ still have some room for further OCR cut (which is not just about housing but primarily for economic stability reasons), and there is still room to provide direct support to the housing through loosening LVR. (It didn't surprise me that RBNZ have left OCR and LVRs currently unchanged in the need to keep their powder dry.) So if that economic down turn does have adverse effect on the economy, or there is a change in one of the current drivers, then one can see RBNZ taking some action and I don't see the result as being catalistic.
That is a far more considered and justified position than simply a bland throw away line "there is going to be a catalistic downturn".
So what is my beef - it is not about saying that those who disagree are wrong. My beef is that it is just simplistic statements without considered rationale - about the same as someone (bunnies) betting on a horse soley on the basis of the jockey's colour.

by Fritz | 3rd Dec 19, 2:28pm 1575336514

Great comment.
There's still contingency left for the RBNZ.
My view still remains, however, that an economic shock will occur in the next 2-3 years, which the RBNZ will not be able to adequately mitigate against.
But you've set out some nice rationale there.

I think you'd agree that it's prudent at these times for FHBs to have a 20-30% deposit, even if banks are accepting less. As I have said before, I'm keeping my eyes open, but I won't buy a place with anything less than 20% deposit (even if the banks accepted 10%). This will naturally limit how high I can go in terms of price - but so be it.

by printer8 | 3rd Dec 19, 3:32pm 1575340362

Hi Fritz
Some will think that you and I are the same person in self praise, rather than two just agreeing with one another. :)
The good thing is that banks have - in their vested interest - a test (an interest rate of about 6 to 7%?) to assess whether the borrower can take a reasonable degree of stress.
I wish you - as well as other potential FHB - well in buying your first home. Home ownership has the advantages of security for family, intrinsic value, and has provided previous generations with financial security.
The alternative is to keep renting, pay off the landlords mortgage and be saddled with rent payments in retirement.

by tothepoint - d… | 3rd Dec 19, 3:46pm 1575341165

Another exceptionally well-reasoned comment from printer8.

TTP

by cmat | 3rd Dec 19, 3:41pm 1575340862

Firstly, just so we're clear I didn't say "there is going to be a catalistic downturn"
Is that a merging of the words?:
- Cataclysm - which I didn't say
- Catalyse - which I did say
They have very different meanings.
I said global headwinds could "catalyse a downturn" - i.e. a global shock could give rise to a downturn.

There is always uncertainty, for me though that uncertainty is far more heightened now than it ever has been due to a number of convergent factors - if you're looking for justification on that statement there is plenty:
- Globally manufacturing PMIs are deteriorating in a growing number of large developed nations (most of the Euro zone, UK, Japan, Korea https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/global-pmi-tracker/);
- The US is in its longest expansion period *ever* and the 10yr-3month yield curve, whatever you think of it, has been a very accurate lead indicator of recessions. The curve's behaviour is mirroring what happened in the lead up to previous recessions (https://twitter.com/sharon_zollner/status/1201254642773921793);
- Central Banks are having to go to increasingly unconventional lengths to inject liquidity into the system which is strange in a time of low unemployment and record high prices across a number of asset classes. The US Fed has stated that it is not engaged in QE, but has injected over $300bn to stabilise repo markets in the past 8 weeks - that's an unprecedented expansion in the Fed's balance sheet in such a short space of time (https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1200502347660767233?s=19);
- There is also the unprecedented situation of negative yielding bonds and savings accounts in Europe. Yields are rising now routing those bonds. There is $2.5 * trillion* dollars of BBB rated Corporate debt - the most ever and twice the size of the Junk market, raising fears that rating companies are failing to correctly asset investment grade debt as Junk (https://www.ft.com/content/7b0df4bc-fefe-11e9-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47)
- Warren Buffett is sitting on $128b in cash because he thinks markets are fundamentally over-valued (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/29/buffett-sitting-on-128-billion-raises-q…);
- Ray Dalio, the world's most famous hedge fund manager, wrote an extended blog piece in Linkedin last month detailing why he thinks "The World Has Gone Mad and the System is Broken (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-has-gone-mad-system-broken-ray-dal…)
- Larry Jeddeloh, a keynote speaker at the UBS Australasia Equities conference (our region's biggest equities conference) claimed that there will need to be a monetary reset and the risk of a Minsky Moment in China. Trade talks are unlikely to be resolved as all Presidential candidates in the US (in both parties) are against appeasing China. https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/something-has-to-change-leading…

That's a bit more than a jockey's colour and I could go on. And on.
All the above are far, FAR, *FAR* more powerful than any domestic forces on price.... the RBNZ can do all they like (and FYI, they have bugger all room to move on the OCR - historically small amount of room to move) but it won't have one iota of impact if global credit markets seize up.
It seems you've bought a huge get out of jail card by caching your thoughts by saying you'd "reconsider your position" *if* there are economic headwinds. The economic headwinds are central to the reason others have misgivings over where the market is heading.

Goes without saying, I hardly think your reckons are rock solid despite you demanding justification from others.
If anything the most ropey reckons are those built upon one month's B&T release of simple averages and medians and being buoyed by some cheerleading from Ashley Church over hard global macro economic data and opinions/actions from likes of Buffett and Dalio.... but feel free to give me the rock solid reasons as I've done for you.

by printer8 | 3rd Dec 19, 3:40pm 1575340837

Hi cmat
Great to see some justification!
That is all fine - your choice.
Cheers

P.S. I have bookmarked that Warren Buffett article.

by cmat | 3rd Dec 19, 3:42pm 1575340968

I'd read the Dalio piece too - he's a super switched on character and not the least bit ideological. Just calls it as he sees it.

by Due Diligence | 3rd Dec 19, 11:21pm 1575368463

Feel free to make an actual prediction some time. The only thing you've demonstrated you're able to do well is Google "causes of upcoming recession".

by cmat | 4th Dec 19, 11:41am 1575412871

Yeah, OK.
I read CNBC and Bloomberg more than I read Stuff & NZ Herald - they have reported the yield curve, Buffett's cash and Dalio's comments numerous times;
I was in Sydney in person to hear Jeddolah speak about China; and
I get emails directly from all the Bank economists daily on their macro observations - including Sharon Zollner who I linked to.

You should try some of that out rather than being spoon fed (or writing) your reckons from Ashley Church about your fabled NZ Property Clock;

Here's a prediction - Anyone who thinks they can time the market with precision is a fool.
An absolute fool.

by printer8 | 3rd Dec 19, 11:06am 1575324373

"However, vendors seem to be slow to have picked up on the buoyant conditions, with new listings at their lowest level in 11 years."
Unless there is good reason to sell (e.g. trading up, job transfer, marrigage break-up) why would one want to sell?
I suggest that those who have houses to sell (e.g. landlords exiting the market, and, yes, speculators sitting on empty houses) will have a good idea of the market so will be sitting tight for that further capital gain.
So add lack of listings to those other drivers in the Auckland market - continuing high immigration rates, low interest rates, housing shortage, . . . .

by Fritz | 3rd Dec 19, 11:05am 1575324347

As I have acknowledged several times, the market is certainly lifting.
But it's still uncertain by how much. Month to month stats are volatile, and the HPI is the gold standard.
Remember too this is typically the 'hot' time of the year in terms of sales.

by printer8 | 3rd Dec 19, 11:10am 1575324653

Strongly agree with you Fritz except for your last sentence' "this is typically the 'hot' time of the year in terms of sales" but the article says this is "the highest they have been for the month of November since 2015".
Your note of caution is however taken; monthly markets can be volitile for a number of reasons - even weather can can have an influence.

by Fritz | 3rd Dec 19, 11:21am 1575325312

I value your opinions, which are pretty balanced for a property guy,

by RickStrauss | 3rd Dec 19, 11:51am 1575327106

Interestingly, it is 19 sales more than November 2018.

I'm less keen to claim to know where the market is heading based on small amounts of information.

by mikekirk29 | 3rd Dec 19, 11:14am 1575324887

Some parts are lifting. Mostly in South and East. North is flat to falling and central is getting pasted if you look at sub totals

by Believer1980 | 3rd Dec 19, 11:23am 1575325408

Is this not always the case? some places are doing bad, even when the times are fantastic. So if South and East are OK, North is flat and Center is falling, this shows house and land prices are OK, apartments are doing poorly. What about the West?

by NorthernLights | 3rd Dec 19, 11:16am 1575324978

Of course they are NZ still has no government scheme yet to insure your saving$
People are using housing as a safe place to put money
We are all doing that up here & we have bank deposit protection
The FED is pumping $$ into the system & the sharemarket was at all time high but backed off slightly today.
NZ is full of foreign fund$

by NorthernLights | 3rd Dec 19, 11:17am 1575325030

by bw | 3rd Dec 19, 11:17am 1575325078

Who remembers what happened on 7th September 2008? Not many. But it's the date that The Fed 'rescued' Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "The property market ( and the others) were saved!"
Most of us, however, remember what happened two weeks later....
My point? There's often 'one last gasp' just before a correction. Maybe this isn't it, but what if it is?

by Chairman Moa | 3rd Dec 19, 11:24am 1575325480

The trade war between US and China is still playing out, we aren't even close.. Copious amount water still to be flowed under the bridge!

by pin3cone | 3rd Dec 19, 12:02pm 1575327727

Or bottled and sold overseas for huge profits

by NorthernLights | 3rd Dec 19, 12:02pm 1575327738

bw
So true
Perhaps people have forgotten that most of the world live in the north & there will be no safe haven
Banks in US reluctant to foreclose on defaulting home loans on homes valued over $300K
They found dumping too many foreclosures into the housing market was depressing loan book values Hence we have millions of defaulting home loans where there hasn’t been a single payment made in over 5 years. These homeowners really just house sitting for their banks who otherwise must pay contractors to upkeep their properties
Auto loans here at all time default highs Will never be repaid
Student loans well over one trillion dollars will never be repaid
City pensions in disarray Many retirees forced to live off a fraction of their pensions
Derivatives trading at all time highs
FED pumping even more funds into the system when the banks couldn’t raise enough liduidity to pay taxes
Keep dreaming NZ & AUS property will escape a global depression though

by Ex Expat | 3rd Dec 19, 11:21am 1575325272

It's not just Auckland. ABC news last night reported Sydney and Melbourne up 8.2% from lows earlier this year.

BTW: CoreLogic value on my home updated on 1/12/19 @ 99.6% of 2017 RV

by VeryInterested | 3rd Dec 19, 2:45pm 1575337505

Corelogic in Australia are not telling the whole truth with those figures. A few high end suburbs like have seen very good price increases over the last quarter but they have extrapolated those suburbs increases across the whole city. So you have Real Estate agents in Wollongong telling their clients that prices are up just over 8% when the are down 7.5%. The REA who get their stats directly from real estate agents saw an increase of 0.8% over the same quarter. Corelogic also don’t say where they source their data. Big debates going on over there as to the authenticity of corelogics figures.

by mvgsmf | 3rd Dec 19, 11:34am 1575326065

Interesting how median price is always used when it goes up...I'll wait for the HPI before I get excited.

I'm actually looking for a new house at the moment on the North Shore and given I'm not big for anecdotes and prefer data I've looked at all auctions right in the middle of pricing in Middish-lower upper suburbs (from $800 - $1.2M in Birkenhead, Northcote, Hillcrest, Chatswood, Glenfield, Sunnynook)

I drew up a spreadsheet of all Auction sale prices achieved v 2017 CV - the only properties that sold above CV had development potential - anyone who bought in the last 2 years and has to sell now has done very poorly.

Over the last 28 Auction Sales (Oct,Nov 2019) v CV the average sale price is the grand total of -1.59% below 2017 CV.

Make of it what you wish....going to an auction tonight so will be interesting to see what happens...

by Fritz | 3rd Dec 19, 11:35am 1575326115

yeah. As a *general* observation, many of the places that are going for better prices are potentially subdividable or developable.

by RickStrauss | 3rd Dec 19, 11:53am 1575327206

Indeed. People seem very quick to talk things up. (Or down, obviously. Depending on their personal stake, perhaps.)

by NorthernLights | 3rd Dec 19, 12:05pm 1575327957

Oh no Rick I think we can say things are way overdue a correction
Even all the optimism in the world cannot protect us from a coming depression & this time the central banks
will be utterly powerless They have contributed to this Ponzi

by RickStrauss | 3rd Dec 19, 2:10pm 1575335457

There are two reasons I don't put a stake in the ground on what I think the market is going to do:

1. I have no idea
2. Opinions on the internet are like bumholes. Everyone has one, but no one really wants to see yours.

Disclaimer: 2 clearly doesn't stop us on broader discussion :-)

by Averageman | 3rd Dec 19, 2:06pm 1575335179

Isn't this just a case of money being at "life support levels for the banks" aka stupidly cheap...?

Look at 84a Ballarat Street in AKL, 3 bed, 94sqm brick (plastered over) and tile, cross lease. One owner since 1958, and it looked like it - original as bro. Sold in a week for $1,075,000. After throwing a pile at it to be compliant you might be lucky to rent for $600pw. Assuming 30% deposit and borrowing at 3.39%, and no assuming no vacancy, maintenance, or rates its 2.9% yield. Perhaps they will demo and build and sell it for $2m-3m, yeah right - TUI.

by richard1965 | 3rd Dec 19, 12:11pm 1575328264

Do know that market is like old time.

Boom Time.

Next year too chances are that wehn market opens up it will be on sound footing as FOMO will kick in and the price will go up or may hold at higher level (Not Fall) BUT Yes it has changed from buyers market to sellers market - unless thing change over X'mas - though doubtfull.

This strenght in the market cannot be one off - it is to stay as market is surprisingly very strong and it is not only NZ market but even in Sydney and Melbourne .

by RickStrauss | 3rd Dec 19, 1:39pm 1575333540

Any more insights from your posts yesterday on how folk are successfully avoiding Anti Money Laundering rules?

Good people are very, very, very happy about 19 more sales this month than the same month last year. Others will be terrified of missing out.

by richard1965 | 3rd Dec 19, 1:58pm 1575334733

One never knows.

Do not be surprised if something pops up in future :)

by RickStrauss | 3rd Dec 19, 2:11pm 1575335519

Bet you say that to all the girls.

by Chairman Moa | 3rd Dec 19, 3:02pm 1575338541

only with that little blue pills..

by Crazy Horse | 3rd Dec 19, 12:52pm 1575330769

Bonanza !!!

by alittle | 3rd Dec 19, 1:35pm 1575333359

Yeah can call Bonanza for House owners and frustration for FHB who were already struggling and now with this prise rise, if it sustains will be game over for FHB.

Only alternate to FHB will be to pay a premium for pigeon hole type accomodation or move from Auckland.

Welcome back to golden era where house ponzi was on ..............people to be hit hard in future will be FHB who buys now at all time high price - FOMO.

by RickStrauss | 3rd Dec 19, 2:03pm 1575334992

Expecting older folk who inherited affordable housing from post-war generations to be concerned about passing on affordable housing to future generations? Absurd...now get on with contributing your tax dollars to their pensions, young'uns!

by Ex Expat | 3rd Dec 19, 3:16pm 1575339382

Our children will hopefully get our home unencumbered and inheritance tax free. Very affordable, for them at least :)

by RickStrauss | 3rd Dec 19, 4:12pm 1575342751

Nice. That should help protect them nicely from having to compete under their own steam. Hopefully we can re-entrench a landed aristocracy over time and work our way back to occupational foppishness and genteel men of leisure ;)

by Fritz | 3rd Dec 19, 5:56pm 1575348980

That's the way its headed. So much for egalitarianism in NZ

by Millennial_Woman | 4th Dec 19, 2:59am 1575381590

I am seeing #eattherich pop up more and more on social media, this has to end well right?

by Ex Expat | 4th Dec 19, 6:14am 1575393250

Our forefathers may have believed there was egalitarianism. Looking back, I realise there have always been the rich and privileged, just fewer of them. Now the leafy suburbs are expanding at a time when poverty is on the rise and the most socialist government we’ve had in years seems unable to do anything meaningful about It.

by Ex Expat | 4th Dec 19, 6:10am 1575393016

There is more than one child and only one house so unless they share they won’t be living in Kohimarmara. They will however have a base to build on or fall back on that hopefully they will use wisely. With respect to a landed aristocracy, let’s not pretend it doesn’t already exist in some form. The question is whether it produces a sustainable income for all future beneficiaries? I doubt many have enough to support genteel men of leisure for many generations to come.

by pin3cone | 3rd Dec 19, 2:17pm 1575335820

I work in IT where there is already a competency shortage. What I have seen over the past 4 years is the bifurcation of a generation - those who got into the housing market pre-2015 and those who didn't. There's a pool who have got in post-2015 and have been keeping the ship afloat, and to them I say good on you and good luck. I am now a skilled worker who is running on a treadmill with no let-up in sight. My rent continues to increase to chew into my pay rises, cost of living continues to rise, and I'm getting older. So, I've started planning my move to Australia where they pay more, the cost of living is cheaper and housing is more affordable. Only downsides are higher tax and climate catastrophes. Maybe I'll come back as a climate refugee. But right now, I feel like this country and it's leaders do not value it's workers - and I am lucky enough to be in a position to consider moving away. I seriously feel for those who will be stuck on their treadmills for as long as anyone can tell.

by Seve | 3rd Dec 19, 10:19pm 1575364779

Ive just returned from Australia to look after my folks,been away for 20 years ,I understand completely how you feel ,if it wasn't for them i would never come back.

Ive lived in NSW ,WA ,NT and SA ,in SA and quite familiar with those property markets ,Sydney is a basket case ;but,those other regions offered a lower cost of living and higher wages and far more opportunities,NZ property market is completely bonkers,especially for FHB.

by EarlyMillenial | 4th Dec 19, 5:01pm 1575432060

Best of luck in your move. NZ doesn't pay nearly well enough to retain skilled young professionals. I made the jump 18 months ago. In that time, my salary has gone from 58K NZD to 130K AUD. Admittedly, a majority of that would be from career progression, but still. I'm now finally in a position to wipe out my sizeable student loan within two years, and start saving for investments.

If a country/society does not look after its young workers - they will leave. And it will then take far more work to backfill the tax base to pay for those pensions and healthcare costs

by Houseworks | 3rd Dec 19, 2:09pm 1575335389

Arise sir FOMO, your time has come.

by Crazy Horse | 3rd Dec 19, 3:22pm 1575339726

...my comment alittle was made in total sarcasm ...totally agree with you……please refer to pin3cone comments above and I don’t blame him, as this is what will happen and all the smug “baby boomers” will be screaming, why can’t I get my 2.5 mil for my Sunnyhills, Pakuranga sh*tbox ! as I am relying on that to sell and buy my retirement beach house up north…..while those with “vested interests” as they totally depend on the “PPP” – Property Ponzi Party for every income stream, will be saying “this can’t be happening”!! Auckland property always doubles every 7 – 10 years ! ……I have seen it happen in the USA with my own eyes and things can turn sour within a matter of months...but there are those on this thread that think all is "bulletproof" in the property world .....and I say "best of luck to 'em"!

by bw | 3rd Dec 19, 3:31pm 1575340303

"buy my retirement beach house up north"
Sounds good, until something goes wrong with 'your' health.
The last thing a retiree needs to do is find themselves at the back end of nowhere in a multimillion-dollar dream bach when the nearest hospital is 2 hours away. ( and one that isn't up to the same standards as, say, the Auckland one is). Even places like Queenstown. Don't get too sick there...the ambulance transfer at Lumsden, on the way to Invercargill, is a mongrel.

by Houseworks | 3rd Dec 19, 9:09pm 1575360568

Thames. Has own hospital, and all the shops you could need.... as well as cheap land and housing. Located in middle of tauauckham it is ripe to be properly "discovered"

by Davo36 | 4th Dec 19, 5:01pm 1575432112

Just need an apartment in the city as well then.

Leave it empty just in case it's needed. :)

by bw | 3rd Dec 19, 3:10pm 1575339009

Fickle things, asset markets aren't they! Even the liquid ones...One minute they're at record highs; blue skies ahead, then the next thing you know...
"ASX bloodbath. Losses spread to Asia as global rout takes hold"
https://outline.com/MUcBYy

by Houseworks | 3rd Dec 19, 10:03pm 1575363807

All ords down 2.1 percent, business as usual movement. Or. ALL ORDS DOWN TWO POINT ONE PERCENT, ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH!!!
Which is it bw? To be honest if you dont have the appetite for wild sudden swings then dont invest in stocks. Black monday in the states the Dow was off 15 percent I recall, so I cant see that a 2 percent aust fall is anything much to write home about.

[Edit: Black monday 19 october 1987 Dow Jones plunge, 22.6 percent, 508 points]

by mikekirk29 | 3rd Dec 19, 3:13pm 1575339238

From Barfoots November sales report:

Central Auckland: 2018, Nov = 90. This November = 20
South Auckland: 2018, Nov = 106. This November, 2019 = 144

Helpfully and transparently, BT give last 12m figures for each area, in comparison to prev 12m.
I believe this irons out monthly noise

Central Auckland: -34%
Central suburbs: -2.8%
Eastern suburbs: +1.3%
Franklin: -16%
NSC: -19.4%
Pakuranga/Howick: +11.3%
Rodney: - 16%
South Auckland: +18%
West Auckland: -12%

To me this shows that the carnival of new build buyers has moved on to S Auckland and away from Waitakere City. It also illustrates that most areas are selling FEWER in last 12m. In last 3m it is only Auckland City and Papakura the has sold more than in 2018 for same period.

At some stage I will try to add on price brackets as to how many sell in each, for last 3m compared to same period in 2018.

by taimaiakka0 | 3rd Dec 19, 4:50pm 1575345010

100% jump in house price in Auckland by 5% to 10% since september.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

by Brock Landers | 3rd Dec 19, 6:08pm 1575349698

Nice work RBNZ. Gotta pump those asset prices higher. Whatever the cost.

by Davo36 | 4th Dec 19, 5:05pm 1575432324

Other parties with vested interests being: Real Estate, Banks, Government, Media.

All gotta keep the party going and keep those profits rolling in.

by richard1965 | 3rd Dec 19, 5:14pm 1575346497

High asking price / expectation in Raywhite halfmoon bay auction failed yesterday.

RE Agents were very confident in yesterday's auction by asking very high price and it's failure sends wrong signal (Negative).

It is better to wait and watch as should get clear direction in next few months.

by custard | 3rd Dec 19, 8:00pm 1575356437

Wonder how much does the recent situation and desperation in Hong Kong figure in all of this.

So, want a bolt-hole - there’s not a lot of premium Auckland properties on the market currently – just pay whatever is needed to get it done.

Rules? – I think they’re seen as a general guide at best and to be cleverly navigated by astute “business men”.

Somewhat interesting that Auckland, Sydney and Melbourne are all basically jumping in tandem – and all would suit Hong Kong money nicely?

by richard1965 | 3rd Dec 19, 9:11pm 1575360683

From Singapore being diverted to......maybe the reason for sudden jump...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/04/jp-morgan-on-capital-flows-from-hong-ko…

by custard | 3rd Dec 19, 9:49pm 1575362954

And so Singapore a relatively easy conduit for "hot" money….what a coincidence - hello 2017 prices my old friend, we meet again!

by Adam B NZ | 3rd Dec 19, 8:02pm 1575356571

Meanwhile the Global economic situation continues to worsen. More life to come in the property market short term though. When the reality of the Global economic situation kicks in the party will come to an end. That is if there is no Global recovery and things keep heading south.

by Fritz | 3rd Dec 19, 9:06pm 1575360383

Wow, MAJOR NEWS!
Property Spruiker extraordinaire Ashley Church says Auckland prices will be flat next 12-18 months.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/housing-expert-offers-his-2…

by stuart786786 | 3rd Dec 19, 9:27pm 1575361666

House price if flat will be more towards lower side. House price should be rising, the way they are rising now (doubtful) but if flat will be more on lower side.

So as per Ashley Church, price will be soft for next year or two and this surge will not sustain.

by Fritz | 3rd Dec 19, 9:53pm 1575363220

It's a very different view to some of the investors who hang out here.

by Davo36 | 4th Dec 19, 5:09pm 1575432546

One Roof property commentator Ashley Church

Hardly independent. Which makes his comments all the more surprising. They'll get him back on track shortly, OneRoof won't want to pay property bears.

by mikekirk29 | 5th Dec 19, 11:08am 1575497316

November 2019 was precisely 4 sales above 2015.
Note 4 month comparison is a LITLLE more revealing, but not what Barfoots wants to underscore:

August - November 2015: 4694 sales
2017: 2826 sales
2018: 3342 sales
2019: 3301 sales

So, 4m 2019 sales are 30% below 2015. Rather a different picture.

Note that China stamping on hosepipe in early 2017 was a lot more impactful than the OBB in 2018.

by mikekirk29 | 5th Dec 19, 11:11am 1575497510

Barfoots September and October figures for 2018: 1606 total
2019: 1595 total

Not very exciting