Barfoot & Thompson's auction numbers and sales rates are up compared to this time last year

From personal experience, no problems selling a FHB priced property on the North Shore at present. Three weeks and it even had a pre-auction offer.....SOLD. Looking at quality property in Tauranga and realistic sellers also moving their houses at just above RV's. Dreamers wanting hundreds of thousands over the RV's are having their places sit for months and months and they are not selling.

Market is very strong.

Many houses that have been sold have gone 10% or more above CV. Checking in Bucklandbeach, Howick area and it is not only houses with section but even townhouse. Crazy Time Back Again !

Sales in Auckland City plainly improving.
Prices there also rising.
This has been case now for about 3.5 months.
Question is why the big improvement compared to the lousy previous 7m?
And indeed the lousy prev 3 years before that?
This question, and attempts to answer it, seem little posited.
As biggest improvement in sales in this period has been over $1.5m, compared to lower brackets, the drop in interest rates in last few months would seem not have been likely to have had as much impact as it might have been expected to have at lower quartile levels.
The HK trouble has been going now for 6m.
Some people may be transferring wealth and themselves to Singapore, which is not covered by OBB.
The sales improvement has been concentrated in new build areas and also in Auckland central.
Apartments are out of favour, in sales numbers terms, compared to more expensive property.

We of course will not get an answer to this sort of thing until stats start being recorded as to Residential status and ethnicity of buyer. I won't hold my breath.

Interesting: looking at sales over $2m in Auckland City.
Between June and October 2018 these declined by 4, from 82 to 78
In the same period of 2019 they increased from 64 to 78, a rise of 22%

Substantially greater increase than in lower price brackets.
The rich, either in Auckland or abroad, are plainly happy with recent developments and feeling more confident.
More on lower brackets shortly.

Here are figures for Auckland City sales in the lower bracket:

600 - 900k June 2018: 158 sales and in October 18 there were 154 sales (fell 2.5%)
June 2019: 161 sales and in October 160 sales: down 0.006%

Looking at those figures and back at the sales over $2m, presented a moment ago, interest rate cuts have made little to no difference. It is the rich who are back in market, not those reliant on mortgages.

However, if you compare the sales change for the two brackets and compare June 2018 with October 2019 the picture alters: the lower bracket shows a rise of 1.26% and the higher bracket a fall of 4.8%

Compare purely October 2018 to October 2019 and lower bracket rises 3.9% whilst higher bracket is exactly even (nil change)

The Auckland total 12m series of sales for 12m to end June and 12m end of October, excluding Auckland City, fell compared to 2018 by 1%. Same series for Auckland City rose 1.44%
Auckland City

Just to irritate our price friends a little more:

the 12m series is interesting for Auckland total sales.

That is, the total sales for 12m to end of any particular month.

June to October 2018 total sales in each of the 12m series from June to October showed total rose by 2.5%
In 2019 it fell by 2.1%

So, this year, last 5m show a declining trend, compared to 2018.

This may simply be because 2019 has not the benefit of people trying to sell and buy prior to OBB date of 22.10.18. Once this drops out of the comparison then we will have a clearer picture, esp in crucial months of Feb-May

Maximum price inflation of 2% per year keeping up with wage growth. I think this might be tolerated by the Government however we will increasingly have ghettos of have/have nots. Maybe that's their (neocons) plan all along - to make NZ like the US with clear inequality. It still makes no sense paying for a house that is minimum 40% over valuation.

Forget local sentiment...in the end house prices here will depend on how this all blows out...and I have no idea how (as most don't it seems). So don't kid yourself peoples...it's outta your hands...you're gambling.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/10/fed-qe4-could-happen-before-years-end-c…

A curious situation has arisen up the North Shore bays. I was talking to a good friend of mine last night. He's a self-employed accountant who works from home. His wife passed away some years ago and his three sons have all left home. He lives in a large two-storey home up near East Coast Road. His house has a nice spacious modern basement one-bedroom flat which his local Barfoot's branch has had on its books for nearly two months but has failed to let. They have given him no feedback as to why they can't find tenants for him. This is the first time in 20 years or so that there has been such a long non-tenanted period. He's wondering why this situation obtains. Is it because Barfoots are not doing their job? (He has used Pinkneys in the past.)
Barfoots advised the rental he should charge.
He is now wondering if there has been a recent general drop-off in demand for rentals, and as he was driving down to Takapuna about 8.20 am the other morning he was suprised at the lack of vehicles on the road at what is usually a busy time.
Are these situations symptomatic of a larger economic problem or are they just coincidental anomalies?
(To all the theorists and generalists out there I apologize for introducing an instance of hard data into the debate.)

Can I just point out that the last 3 months of increase in Auckland have been over SPRING. If we see continued price rises over the next 3 months as well, then i'll start making more noise where ever I can. To be fair I am a little worried, but i'm not losing hope that prices might stay flat a little longer given increases to interest rates and the global economic slowdown. It's going to take me a little while longer to save the required deposit for an Auckland home, and watching prices move faster than my deposit savings is scary.

I have studied the loss of sales for the first 10m of 2016 in Auckland, v 2019.
Also, the improvement in sales in Sept and Oct 2019, compared to the prev 8m, compared to 2018.

The total loss of sales for the 10m comparison was from 32,832 to 24, 251.
A loss of 8581 sales or a 26% decline.
Of those losses, 3602 were priced under $600k. (8517 v 4915) = down 42%
A lot of these were apartments (2221 v 1081= down 51%)
Section sales under $600k down from 1560 to 1232 (- 21%)

In the $600k to 900k bracket, losses were 1961 (11,608 v 9647) = down 16.9%
In the $900k. to $1.2m bracket losses were 1113 (6088 v 4975) = down 18.2%
In the $1.2 - 1.5m bracket losses were 868 (3343 v 2475) = down 25.96%
Over $1.5m losses were 1236 (4066 v 2830) = down 30.3%

We can see that the great majority of lost sales in last 3 years have been under $600k and over $1.2m.
Apartments and property under $600k have taken biggest % losses.
This bracket should have been assisted by interest rate cuts. That did not happen.

Turning to the difference and improvement between the first 8m of 2019 and the contrast with September and October: this takes form basically of a decline in the drop compared to 2018 for same periods.
So, Auckland 8m drop is 12.3% and in Sept and Oct this improved to a 9.9% drop.
There was no improvement in the price bracket over $1.5m
There was a 5% improvement in the bracket $1.2 - 1.5m (remember this is an improvement in trend, not an increase on 2018)
Bracket priced 900- 1.2m declined in the 2m period compared to the 8m period, ie sales rate declined and comparison with 2018 was worsened.
The bracket from 600-900k improved from 5.1% down in first 8m of 2019 to only 1.4% down in Sept and Oct.

Of the 2016 - 19 losses (8581 total) 5563 were in brackets under $900k (65%)
Only 1236 were in bracket over $1.5m (14.4%)

In the 3 years concerned, consents have probably increased stock by 36,000. Whilst sales fell.
In the same 3 years, interest rates have fallen.