2020 will be a good year for the real estate industry, REINZ says

Property

Real Estate Institute chief executive Bindi Norwell sees more regional growth in the year ahead and with Auckland 'potentially starting to see some uplift'

19th Dec 19, 10:03am by David Hargreaves

The next year should be as good one for the real estate industry, with continued regional growth and Auckland "potentially starting to see some uplift," Real Estate Institute (REINZ) chief executive Bindi Norwell says.

In the REINZ 2019 year in review for the real estate profession Norwell says the year has been another interesting one for the industry.

"We’ve seen record median prices reached in many parts of the country, with November itself seeing 10 new regional records and one record equal."

Norwell said the 2019 property market has been influenced by a number of key themes including:

The ongoing effects of the foreign buyer ban which came into effect in late 2018 and appears to have impacted sales volumes, but not had the intended flow-on effect for sales prices
the further stabilisation of pricing in the Auckland market which has hovered around $850,000 for about three and a half years now – although the last three months have started to show signs of an uplift
The continued strength of the regions in terms of price growth with increased demand and a lack of supply of properties, putting pressure on prices in some areas
The record low OCR and low bank lending rates has meant eased accessibility for more first time buyers
The proposed Capital Gains Tax which caused many people, particularly investors, to take a ‘wait and see’ approach.

Norwell said the strengthening prices across the country have potentially had an impact on the sales volume with numbers down -2.6% across the country.

"However, when we look at the total value of property sold in the 11 months ending November 2019 compared to the same period in 2018, we see a 0.2% increase, showing that the overall spend across New Zealand in the property market throughout the year is remaining rather steady.”

The below table highlights sales statistics in the 11 months to November:

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119 Comments

by rastus1 | 19th Dec 19, 10:05am 1576703118

I'm so over property stuff.

by Advisor | 19th Dec 19, 10:12am 1576703541

I wish more New Zealanders thought like this instead of dreaming to expand their property portfolios and retire at an early age as slumlords.

by CJ099 | 19th Dec 19, 12:11pm 1576710713

It is rather sicking is it. Even more so when you see headlines like this from the Herald recently: John Key's house finally sold for $23.5m after two-year settlement. Owner status on the title to 103 St Stephens Ave has transferred from two men who were previously reported as acting for the Keys - Ian Andrew Nugent and Kenneth Grey Whitney - to Lianzhong Chen.
Herald article link: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=12…

by Millennial_Woman | 19th Dec 19, 11:51pm 1576752708

This really bugged me too. I'm not sure what he brought it for, but the 2014 RV was $13m.
Seems like his plan was to get in power, pump up house prices, quit, sell up and make a $10m tax free profit!
All before the new govt had time to stem the flow of foreign money that was increasing living costs for all those who don't own.

by The_4th_estate | 19th Dec 19, 10:12am 1576703566

I'm so over the Black Caps and the season has just started, on RE, it might be time to do an agents licencing course and get on the bandwagon...

by bw | 19th Dec 19, 10:34am 1576704894

You wouldn't be suggesting that Jeet Raval becomes a salesman, would you?!
(The old joke, when people lose their job -"Well, you could always become a Real Estate Agent" came to mind!)

by CJ099 | 19th Dec 19, 11:56am 1576709786

Yes I would agree with you on that one, though it seems that REA options are drying up too. It was recently reported here that "The number of active real estate agent licenses continues to trend down. In October, there were -446 fewer that the same month a year earlier and -354 of that fall was in Auckland. Nationally there are 15,157 licenses, or which 6,505 are in Auckland.
Obviously, not every one of these registered agents does the same amount of business (probably 20% of them do 80% of the transactions), but "on average" Auckland agents do only 3.2 transactions a year while the national average is 4.9 transactions each. These low levels have been stable for two years now. Agents will be hoping for rising transactions in the March and May sales period in 2020".

by The_4th_estate | 20th Dec 19, 12:48pm 1576799324

Lol...that is a hilarious riposte on my comment, thank you. Actually I was waxing lyrical about how realestate seems to be the only industry anyone talks about anymore...are there actually other industries out there?

by Yvil | 19th Dec 19, 11:59am 1576709973

by rastus | 19th Dec 19, 10:05am
I'm so over property stuff.

Just stop reading it

by printer8 | 19th Dec 19, 12:31pm 1576711915

Hi Yvil
Agreed; that seems the pretty straight forward and logical thing.

by rastus1 | 19th Dec 19, 1:14pm 1576714480

...explain how? I need to read it to know what I am reading. Then I can stop.

You two aren't the smartest cookies in the box huh!

by Yvil | 19th Dec 19, 4:33pm 1576726409

...explain how?

Read the headline, if it's about property, decide not to read the article. Quite simple really

by Zachary Smith | 20th Dec 19, 6:56am 1576778193

I imagine Rastus reads the article and gets to the end of the last comment before it dawns upon him that, yes, this is another property article.

by Nzdan | 20th Dec 19, 8:56am 1576785400

Imagine if people with severe allergies treated their meals the same way Rastus treats an article.

by youngdumbandbroke | 20th Dec 19, 11:01am 1576792899

Then natural selection would take its course

by J.C. | 19th Dec 19, 1:45pm 1576716348

I'm so over property stuff.

You shouldn't be. Things are getting to a really interesting stage now and not just in NZ. Asset prices globally have been juiced to the point where the ruling elite is terrified of the impacts of those prices falling. That's why kitchen sinks are being thrown left, right, and center. These are unprecedented times.

But I do agree. Bindi Nowell, Ashley Church, etc. These are remarkedly average people whose opinions have been elevated to a level way beyond their station. They're not some inner circle of "all-knowing" priests and priestesses as the media paints them to be or whatever their property organization portrays them to be. To run an organization like REINZ, what you really need is skilled media strategists. Personally I think the real estate industry is relatively unsophisticated in that regard.

by youngdumbandbroke | 19th Dec 19, 1:27pm 1576715264

Aren't we all. Tough times for the average joe

by kiwimm | 19th Dec 19, 10:11am 1576703494

Can anyone name the last year when REINZ said it was a bad year for property?

by printer8 | 19th Dec 19, 6:51pm 1576734680

Hi Kiwimm
So it’s a bit like those on this site who keep calling a property crash. I suppose one day they could be right. However on this one I backing REINZ to be right for next year. :)

by Gummy Bear Hero | 19th Dec 19, 10:12am 1576703533

... has there ever been a " year ahead " where REINZ didn't say that it was gonna be a good year for the real estate industry ?

by stuart786786 | 19th Dec 19, 10:14am 1576703650

In NZ only economy is Housing Economy and if price goes up again and are going will be crazy as who can affor on average kiwi wage specially in Auckland.

by bw | 19th Dec 19, 10:36am 1576704995

Buyers will just close their eyes and borrow more. What could possibly go wrong?!

by Due Diligence | 19th Dec 19, 12:29pm 1576711745

Interest rates going up would be bad news for leveraged property owners, but bank stress testing is still pretty high at around 6%. The chances of mortgage rates exceeding 6% anytime soon is very low.

by CourtJester | 19th Dec 19, 2:27pm 1576718836

Banks might stress test the individual borrower, but what's gonna happen to the economy if all mortgate owners will have to pay hundreds more per month?
An interest rate increase from 3.4% to 4.5% on a $640k loan (25 years term) will result in the borrower having to pay an extra $100 per week. Previously that money most likely went to a local business. I think even a 1% increase could cripple our already fragile small businesses.

by Due Diligence | 19th Dec 19, 3:36pm 1576723004

Yes, bad news for leveraged property owners and rate hikes would certainly take steam out of the economy (which is usually the intention behind RBNZ raising interest rates), but I don't think mass defaults are likely.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 19th Dec 19, 10:47am 1576705621

... if house prices weren't so over the top bat shit crazy we wouldnt need an average wage in NZ ...

Can someone please wake up the pollies in Wellywood ... poverty / homelessness / being on Struggle Street ... alot of this stems from our stratospheric house prices and rental costs ...

by captainmarty | 19th Dec 19, 10:24am 1576704252

Dont you just love these good news stories.

by Doris | 19th Dec 19, 11:39am 1576708777

by andreas_od | 19th Dec 19, 10:39am 1576705171

From REINZ's "about" page : "The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) is a membership organisation representing more than 14,000 real estate professionals nationwide. "

So , how else could they title the article.

by Pragmatist | 19th Dec 19, 6:13pm 1576732410

Indeed, it is always going to be a good time for REINZ members to pay their annual fees to Bindi and Co, in the opinion of Bindi and Co anyway.

by house hunter | 19th Dec 19, 10:42am 1576705351

So sales volumes were up 2.6% across the country?

by RickStrauss | 19th Dec 19, 10:57am 1576706278

And Auckland 812 units behind 2018, so far. A better showing in sales in September and November this year reduced that deficit from over 1,000.

Interestingly, rolling 12 mth figures for most of 2018 were in the 22 thousands. For most of 2019 (since March) they've been in the 21 thousands, getting down to 21,064 (the lowest since 2013) in June. Rolling 12 mth history in Nov 2018 was 1,250 units above Nov 2019. It's been a slow year.

by house hunter | 19th Dec 19, 1:08pm 1576714095

Sorry Rick, my statement was a dig at this sentence in the article: "Norwell said the strengthening prices across the country have potentially had an impact on the sales volume with numbers down -2.6% across the country.".

The point being that "down -2.6%" should really just be "down 2.6%". As written, it means up 2.6%.

by RickStrauss | 19th Dec 19, 1:38pm 1576715912

:) I didn't actually fact check your statement...was just enjoying exploring the data. But good point re grammar.

by house hunter | 19th Dec 19, 2:35pm 1576719339

Yeah, I should have included a smiley...

by mealsonmeals | 19th Dec 19, 10:53am 1576705992

Its the market we're in. Can't really change that. The biggest culprit is low interest rates. Prices wouldn't rise if they were at 8%.

But its crazy to me that the data and narrative on housing for this country is driven by an institute with a vested interest. Plus media outlets with vested interests that make millions from real estate advertising.

by Cowpat | 19th Dec 19, 11:00am 1576706407

The table is wrong, needs quarterly adjustment like GDP

by printer8 | 19th Dec 19, 1:35pm 1576715753

Hi Cowpat
Talking of being wrong you need to look at your comments.
On 8 October, you took delight by copying and posting and scoffing at a comment of my mine from 1 October (which I had also posted earlier) in which I said that there were indicators that there there were signs of an upturn in the Auckland market.
The old adage, he who laughs last, laughs the loudest applies.
I doubt you will concede that how wrong you were.

I have never posted someone's earlier comment, but as you have set the precedent, I do so.
"by Cowpat | 8th Oct 19, 10:31am
Barfoot auction sales slump 34 percent week on week.
by printer8 | 1st Oct 19, 12:15pm
"Another swallow - while this and other data is not on their own indicators in a upswing in the Auckland market they are at least indicating a growing firmness." "

by Cowpat | 19th Dec 19, 2:10pm 1576717828

Obviously printer8, I live in a world bereft of trolls, troglodytes and toothepointy fairies. I appreciate you have vacated the cave for the day.

1. The table provided by Interest .Co as at 2.00pm remains incorrect. The figures provided are comparisons between 2018 and 2017. I appreciate that the table count has been adjusted since my post this morning.
2. My statement of 8th October was factually correct.
3. This mornings GDP was significantly revised quarter on quarter, also factually correct. Perhaps you may consider the revision to June's per capita growth in your future rantings
4. 2020 will be a banner year for real estate. Sales volumes will be critical .
5. I would never take comfort in laughing at another individual . However I am a very happy , well adjusted , sometimes functioning soul .

by printer8 | 19th Dec 19, 2:27pm 1576718866

Hi cowpat
Two things:
- you were the one who trolled
- no admission your assertion levelled at me was wrong.
Not unexpected.

by Foyle | 19th Dec 19, 11:00am 1576706453

At this point prices simply can't rise at beyond rate of increase in incomes. There is simply no capacity to pay a higher proportion of incomes and mortgage rates cannot drop significantly from where we are now. There is far more down-side risk than up as mortgage rates could rise or government could change regulations to make houses cheaper (slim chance, but still). There is just no reasonable expectation of capital gains any more - unless you live in a growing or gentrifiying town/city.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 19th Dec 19, 11:03am 1576706611

. .. unless foreigners are still donkey doo deep into our market ... underpinning the market ...

But yes , it is an enormous struggle now for FHB's .... even at insanely low mortgage rates ...

by JediNight | 19th Dec 19, 2:12pm 1576717966

The price of a New Zealand house is not contingent on NZers able to afford it.

by Chairman Moa | 19th Dec 19, 11:01am 1576706479

The order book for Maserati is full again.. some might be upgrading a shinier suits and new McLaren

by Housingisoverpriced | 19th Dec 19, 11:07am 1576706822

Track it monthly here: https://www.mia.org.nz/Sales-Data/Vehicle-Sales

by RickStrauss | 19th Dec 19, 11:40am 1576708824

Wow...annual car sales likely to be down about 4,000 units from 2018 too.

by Pragmatist | 19th Dec 19, 6:20pm 1576732856

But not the high end of the market, Aston, Ferrari, Lambo etc all seem to be doing better than last year.

by Mrs The Point | 19th Dec 19, 11:08pm 1576750109

RIP Holden, looks like 2020 will be your last year.

by J.C. | 19th Dec 19, 12:26pm 1576711582

The order book for Maserati is full again.. some might be upgrading a shinier suits and new McLaren

Yes. An almost perfect illustration of the wealth effect. This is exactly why the ruling elite and govts love bubbles. When these things go pop, people look for someone to blame, usually the govt. The psychology and behavior is so predictable.

“When luxury car sales are in retreat you can bet that home prices aren’t far behind,” James said in a Commsec research note this morning. “That has been the case since the early 1990s. And indeed that’s the case now.”

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-house-prices-luxury-car-sa…

by Housingisoverpriced | 19th Dec 19, 11:01am 1576706519

How does paying 40%+ more for a house make NZ richer? This recent market PR is driven by RE agents, and banks so they transfer wealth from your family to them. Wake up people.

by Yvil | 19th Dec 19, 12:05pm 1576710355

Let's say you own 5 properties worth $1Mill each, if they go up 40% you're $2Mill richer, that's how

by J.C. | 19th Dec 19, 1:09pm 1576714150

Let's say you own 5 properties worth $1Mill each, if they go up 40% you're $2Mill richer, that's how

You just illustrated the wealth effect. Essentially the price earned for a property isn't realized until a sale so nobody's "richer". However, if people "feel richer" based on some price construct created by REINZ or whatever, people are more willing to spend even thought their earning potential hasn't improved in any meaningful way. Furthermore, banks, etc are more willing to lend based on the increase in the "perceived value" of the property. These are basically the core attitudes that pervaded Japan during their epic bubble and for which their economy has never really recovered.

by Yvil | 19th Dec 19, 3:25pm 1576722300

"the price earned for a property isn't realized until a sale so nobody's "richer"
BS, so you think Bill Gates and any other Rich Listers, are Rich because they "have realised their assets" what a joke. All your assets contribute to your wealth, Shares, properties, businesses and cash, you don't have to sell everything to "realise your wealth" You just say that to feel less bad about yourself as you can't stand others making money.

by J.C. | 19th Dec 19, 4:31pm 1576726315

That all depends. For example, stock buybacks have been rampant and pushed the valuations of businesses sky high. It doesn't necessarily make the business any more profitable or any better operationally. Furthermore, it doesn't mean that the price of stocks can't crash.

Similarly with houses. Just because an index says the housing stock is worth $XX, that's all rather superficial, particularly in the case of a bubble. If the same index falls 10%, it doesn't mean that the property owners are all 10% poorer.

by mikekirk29 | 21st Dec 19, 8:12am 1576869124

3 words: share buy backs

by Millennial_Woman | 20th Dec 19, 12:02am 1576753359

How many people own 5 properties worth $1m each!?
I'm so disappointed we didn't get a CGT.

by Housingisoverpriced | 19th Dec 19, 2:08pm 1576717692

So essentially you promote a ponzi scheme where you may benefit but someone will ultimately pay the price in the end. Nice to know you people exist in NZ and are happy for the greater fool theory. We certainly haved changed.

by JediNight | 19th Dec 19, 2:14pm 1576718092

Myopic self interest is the religion of our times. The borderline psychos are classed as 'financially savvy' these days, as they honour their God of Symbols.

by Housingisoverpriced | 19th Dec 19, 2:27pm 1576718847

Yes and the charities and society picks up the pieces via: rent subsidies, unemployment, poor infrastructure, crime. I also cringe at the people who have done extremely well giving to charity when their behaviour originally caused some of this in society. I think it makes them feel better before they pass away? Circular strategy by the elites maybe?

by Yvil | 19th Dec 19, 3:28pm 1576722516

The more one has, the more one gives, hopefully you will be able to be in that position one day

by Millennial_Woman | 20th Dec 19, 12:05am 1576753555

This is how capitalism should work, but in practice it is not the case. People don't give nearly enough to charity to help those in need, and when they do give, its often not to the right places.

by Yvil | 20th Dec 19, 11:13am 1576793589

So who do you give to?

by mikekirk29 | 20th Dec 19, 8:30am 1576783844

Ha. And where did the 62 USA citizens for example , who gave wealth equivalent to half the households there GET it. All earned fair and square of course

by Yvil | 20th Dec 19, 11:19am 1576793945

Thanks for proving my point, the more you have, the more you give. They got their massive wealth by providing 100's of millions of people with what they want, like mobile phones, computers, software etc that all commenters here are using

by RickStrauss | 19th Dec 19, 2:29pm 1576718966

Folk who were part of the cohort who saw Gordon Gekko as an aspirational figure.

by Yvil | 19th Dec 19, 4:35pm 1576726545

All the angry comments made against the RE market, badly veiled as "caring for the greater good" or "caring for the economy" or whatever higher value, are just excuses made by envious people who cannot stand others getting ahead in life

by RickStrauss | 20th Dec 19, 9:13am 1576786386

Who's angry?

Is it really all about you?

by JediNight | 19th Dec 19, 10:32pm 1576747956

Don't let reality get in the way of a good story

by Millennial_Woman | 20th Dec 19, 12:20am 1576754401

I am angry and envious yeah, and i'll own it! I want to live in a house I can call my own, and not be sh*t on by those who are pulling the ladder up every time we get close to reaching it. Who's going to take care of your cohort in retirement if we can't take care of ourselves? It's not that I can't stand others getting ahead, I can't stand them doing so at the expense of entire generations. Oh and they expect us to pay their super and healthcare, while we have no home to call our own? That pees me off.

Because of all this, i support CTG, means testing Super, and creating an inheritance tax. Then using that revenue for income tax breaks and improving education.

by Millennial_Woman | 20th Dec 19, 4:33am 1576769585

Is Yvil a troll? Am I feeding him?

by Yvil | 20th Dec 19, 11:31am 1576794670

Hi MW, I understand your frustration. I also didn't own a house or anything of value at all, long ago. I'd like to give you some advice in the hope it won't be met with anger, resistance and belief that I'm not genuine. Please focus on yourself and away from what others do or have. Anger and envy over others definitely don't help. Instead focus all your energy on how you will buy the house you want, if it seems too big of a sum, break it down into months and weeks. Concentrate on what you can control, so not where the market is heading or who else is buying but spend even more time looking for your first home, you will find it, at a price you can afford.
(btw I don't know what a troll is)

by Millennial_Woman | 21st Dec 19, 2:35am 1576848914

Hi Yvil, while I am sure it is genuine, i don't need or want advice. Your advice doesn't change the underlying facts. The fact that entire generations are being locked out of home ownership unless they belong to a wealthy family or get a lucky break in their careers. Or the fact that inequality is getting worse because of house prices out pacing wage growth. I don't want NZ becoming an unequal class society, it is the very reason some of my ancestors came here, and it is part of the reason why the rest of my family can't get ahead (I am NZ Euro / Maori). Inequality is also bad for the economy and leads to worse outcomes for everyone.

Re Troll definition:
In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses and normalizing tangential discussion, whether for the troll's amusement or a specific gain. - Wikipedia

by Houseworks | 21st Dec 19, 2:16pm 1576890967

You sure do post at funny times MW. night shift?

by Millennial_Woman | 24th Dec 19, 1:04am 1577102678

Very observant HW. I am working in the UK at the moment. Moving home soon, would like to buy and settle down in Auckland (aging family and work are there).

by Max Percy | 22nd Dec 19, 12:03pm 1576969420

Great advice MW I agree entirely with your comments.

When respondents state they dont need advice , sympathy and so on, in my view there lies part of the problem.
I know of immigrants who have come from a war torn country as young couples with virtually only the clothes on their backs.

All on the minimum wage in the security industry.
Within 10 years of stepping a shore they purchased their first home.
Admittedly in Canterbury where we dont have Auckland prices..
I leave it to readers to work out how they achieved such results.

By the way english was not their first language.

by Max Percy | 22nd Dec 19, 12:14pm 1576970090

Yvil maybe some advice and different thinking is what you require.
Maybe instead of thinking I cant afford to buy a property ask yourself the question " how can I afford to buy a property?"
There are many ways to get a foot on the first rung of the property ladder but with respect if you are not prepared to seek advice and open your mind nothing will change.

by mikekirk29 | 20th Dec 19, 8:31am 1576783891

True blue National colours out on flag post now

by CJ099 | 19th Dec 19, 12:29pm 1576711796

Absolutely agree with you HOP, It is a false economy.

by Crazy Horse | 19th Dec 19, 11:12am 1576707124

....yes REINZ, it's got to be a good year ....YOUR income depends on it .....you wouldn't have a "vested" interest in this PPP would you, by chance ?

by streetwise | 19th Dec 19, 11:33am 1576708389

I would say this is a case of an interest group 'talking up' their product. If people use statistics to bolster their case they should make them meaningful by breaking them down into more categories. I want separate categories for houses, home units, townhouses, apartments and also smaller regional areas. This article's catch-all grab-bags of categories can be deceptive: for example, the figures could be grossly distorted by say five $10,000,000 houses selling within a chosen period to give an upward bias; or, alternatively, a swath of lower-priced units giving a downward bias. Thus, as they stand they are not practically meaningful for any individual house seller or buyer.
Further, history or even the present doesn't foretell the future. Did the REINZ foretell the 2007/8 crash in house prices? I would ask Bindi Norwell to produce evidence that they did for her maintain her stance as a credible source of prediction.
Also, if Bindi is at all confident in her powers of prognostication then I'm sure that every sharebroking firm will be chasing her with stratospheric offers to utilise her talents.

by mikekirk29 | 19th Dec 19, 11:33am 1576708406

"A good year for the RE industry": 2020. Really?That would imply more sales surely?
NZ 10 month residential sales 2016 were: 80,731. In 2019 it was 59,551. In 2018 it was 64,141.
Bit of a trend there.
Excluding Auckland, NZ 10m sales 2016 - 19 are down 27.8%
In Auckland the 2016-19 drop is 22%
Auckland 10m 2018 was 18,515. In 2019: 17,311.
So, if prices are rising, all is good eh? For whom?

by printer8 | 19th Dec 19, 1:47pm 1576716471

Yes mikekirk
You were wrong "3.5 months ago" ago in predicting a continuing slide in the Auckland market.
I also remember you posting that the market is going to start to crash (not including any seasonal downturn) from next March.
Time will tell.

P.S. Read my posting below - it is not about being "a good" or a "bad" market. "Good" and "bad" are perceptions depending on one's position - a falling market is "bad" for an investor looking to sell, but "good" for a FHB in terms of affordability.
The direction of the market is more important about decision making for FHB. investors and those looking to trade up. At the moment, contrary to drivers and respected views, you seem to be arguing on the basis of your analysis (which has flawed premises and methodology) that prices are going to be falling.

by CourtJester | 19th Dec 19, 2:44pm 1576719872

Mike, before you answer this... I think you shouldn't. Some people here are doing their best to not understand what your actual prediction was about. It's hopeless.

by mikekirk29 | 19th Dec 19, 3:44pm 1576723499

Words have to be defined ie terms: Auckland “market” and “firming” and “improving” among them. Plus which parts of Auckland and type of property being sold in different years. Not going to give all figs because these do not seem appreciated despite taking a long time to research. New house listing dominates and so do new build sales proportionately. Sales boosts accrue where new builds are in prospect or built. This causes movement of wave between suburbs over several years. Research shows this. Meanwhile structurally there are fewer sales of more stock in each 5 year block for last 15 years. This plainly is due to 300% rise in median price between 2002 and 2016. There is an end game and it arrives when loans are no longer revolved down re interest rate. When that happens the market will be stagnant again. Real estate ownership is dominated by people over 65 and this is revealed in the contributions and tone who feel their security blanket threatened. A blanket denied by excessive valuations to more than half the adult pop of Auckland.

by Market Interest | 19th Dec 19, 6:12pm 1576732337

"Not going to give all figs because these do not seem appreciated despite taking a long time to research."

Plenty of appreciation here - keep it coming. The more info the better.

by printer8 | 19th Dec 19, 11:09pm 1576750183

Mikekirk
"Real estate ownership is dominated by people over 65 "
What a load of huge bollocks - unless you can substantiate this with the source of data it is just another giant leap in belief. Another conspiracy theory you throw about.
A quick fact check (obviously like Donald Trump we need to do this with you) the census data 2013 I got did show that 60+ had the highest level of ownership by age group. However home ownership was nearly as high in the 30 to 59 age categories and numerically these age cohorts and home ownership would by far be more dominate in real estate ownership.

by mikekirk29 | 20th Dec 19, 8:36am 1576784181

2013. Really up to date. Utterly predictable reaction Pavlov. 59.8% own in Auckland = 2018 figs. Ownership over 65 is 73%. And they have finished paying assisted by inflation that eroded debt in 80s esp. whereas the 40-65 lot still mortgaged and younger they are worse the debt load.

by mikekirk29 | 20th Dec 19, 8:38am 1576784339

And would help if you separated ownership figs into NZ v Auckland given the $250k diff in median price and hence affordability as 44% of all sales are in Auckland

by Yvil | 19th Dec 19, 12:09pm 1576710598

The desperation of commenters not wanting it to be a "good year" for housing in 2020 is amazing, a categoric refusal and total denial that 2020 could be a "good year" for housing, (whatever that means).

by wally | 19th Dec 19, 12:14pm 1576710871

yeah unbelievable eh people caring about anyon else but themselves

by printer8 | 19th Dec 19, 12:50pm 1576713043

Yvil
I support your sentiment.
However to me it is not about it being “a good year” or “a bad year”; rather the most important thing it is about the direction of the market.
The direction of the market is of critical importance to FHB, property investors, and those considering trading up/down. To these groups - which would cover the vast majority of people buying or selling property - the future of the market should be impacting on their decision making.
This article - along with comments from reputable financial commentators, bank economists, and RBNZ - should be noted by FHB; the reality is that affordability (whatever one feels about it) is not going to likely get better as house prices in Auckland are likely to become more expensive. The current drivers in the market - such as low mortgage rates, high levels of immigration, and housing (and listing) shortages support this.
Unfortunately there are those who post otherwise who think they know better based on unsubstantiated, baseless opinions or conspiracy theories. An example; “the upturn in the Auckland Is a sure sign of money laundering”.

by J.C. | 19th Dec 19, 1:16pm 1576714571

The direction of the market is of critical importance to FHB, property investors, and those considering trading up/down

Nope. The market is of critical importance to the "whole economy", regardless of whether you're an active player or not. For example, even if prices collapsed only 20%, it would not surprise that the economy would be wrecked for at least one generation. And that 20% fall would likely grow as the feedback mechanism from depressed consumer spending took hold. Everyone would suffer.

by Due Diligence | 19th Dec 19, 1:31pm 1576715499

What do you mean “nope”? Are you denying that the direction of the housing market is of critical importance to FHB, property investors, and those considering trading up/down?

by J.C. | 19th Dec 19, 1:44pm 1576716279

I say that because focusing solely on the house purchase decision misses the wider impact on the economy and the bigger picture. This is why housing bubbles are so destructive. Once they become a primary driver in an economy, the 2nd order impacts are also important. Case in the point. The NSW govt is the largest employer in Australia and stamp duties on property transactions is a key revenue stream. Now if property transactions dried up and prices fell, that has a devastating effect on the local govt. Not to mention all the ancillary services involved.

by printer8 | 19th Dec 19, 2:01pm 1576717277

Hi JC
I have left the responsibility of the worry about the implications of the direction of the market to RBNZ.
Unlike you and I, RBNZ have a far greater depth of knowledge, modelling tools, and teams of astute people, and what is more, the tools (OCR and LVRs) to influence the direction. At the moment, the last I heard from Adrian Orr was that he was seeing a 2 to 3% growth in the Auckland market and he was comfortable with that especially in terms of economic stability.
While I don't disregard the wider implications*, the direction of the market is of more importance to most in individual decision making.

* I think affordability for FHB and declining home ownership rates are the two most important wider issues. Factoring those in are not part of the RBNZ role; economic stability is and along with that will be the desire to maintain a stable housing market.

by J.C. | 19th Dec 19, 2:14pm 1576718053

I have left the responsibility of the worry about the implications of the direction of the market to RBNZ

OK. Remember Alan Greenspan? He thought he had found the elixir, but it turned he was disasterously wrong. The good thing about old Al was that he was able to admit his mistakes. Unfortunately, it affected many people and the economy.

by Due Diligence | 19th Dec 19, 2:02pm 1576717352

You said "Nope" in response to the following statement - "The direction of the market is of critical importance to FHB, property investors, and those considering trading up/down". But when questioned you can't explain what part of this statement you actually disagree with.

This is analogous to someone stating quite correctly that diet is important for heart function, and then some obnoxious so-and-so responds "Nope. Diet is important for overall health".

by J.C. | 19th Dec 19, 2:11pm 1576717891

The statement is correct but it's simply focused on a purchase decision. No different to price testing on a chocolate bar for different consumer targets. But what is really important is the overall effect of increasing or decreasing the price. If the price increases by 20 cents, I want to know how this impacts sales among the various consumer segments.

by Due Diligence | 19th Dec 19, 7:00pm 1576735226

Oh, I see. In that case, please refer back to my previous comment regarding the obnoxious so-and-so. That is the situation we now find ourselves in, thanks.

by J.C. | 19th Dec 19, 8:52pm 1576741940

Actually, the point about "critical decisions" for the buyer shows another problem. For example, losing 10% on $5 is not the same as losing 10% on $10. Why is that important? Because people typically demonstration loss aversion. This feeds right into the impacts of house price dynamics on consumer spending. Perception of a $100K loss is obviously much wore than a $50K loss. That's really important when people reach for the boutique food brand in the supermarket or opt for the car brand.

by septe | 20th Dec 19, 1:52pm 1576803155

Isn't the economy wrecked for generation that cannot buy a house at this price already?

by PocketAces | 19th Dec 19, 2:04pm 1576717449

This "news" is only good for those whose self interests it serves. It is absolutely sickening what housing has become to represent in this country, and quite frankly I'd like to see the whole rentier culture and class eradicated.

by JediNight | 19th Dec 19, 2:16pm 1576718190

Well they banned semi automatics, so ... 1080?

by Millennial_Woman | 20th Dec 19, 12:37am 1576755471

"Eat The Rich" has become a popular saying again, i've seen it trending on twitter and spray painted on walls all over Europe. This saying has its origins in the french revolution.

If things don't improve for my generation, the ones after us (who will also wear climate change) might be the ones who cant take it anymore. They are already protesting in the street, and they don't even understand our worsening inequality yet.

https://www.ted.com/talks/nick_hanauer_beware_fellow_plutocrats_the_pit…

by Tui12 | 19th Dec 19, 2:23pm 1576718633

Yes what a sad place NZ has become. Everything is being sold off and and a defined class based society has emerged. It will look nothing like the place I grew up in 15 years from now. A travesty really.

by printer8 | 19th Dec 19, 4:13pm 1576725218

Tui
I agree with you; and it has become a very different society to the one I grew up in.
Sadly as I have previously posted, there is a more distinctive difference between rich and poor, over paid and poorly paid; no longer is home ownership which was obtainable by blue collar workers 30 years ago now the case, and increasingly so for many in the “middle class”. Much of middle class baby boomers wealth was based on home ownership and more so those who invested in rental property. In 15 years from now we will have the emergence of a renting middle class poor - a sad statement for one who believes in equal opportunity and a largely egalitarian society. This is a value, so important to us as New Zealanders which is and will increasingly be lost.

by RickStrauss | 20th Dec 19, 9:18am 1576786687

Sadly as I have previously posted, there is a more distinctive difference between rich and poor, over paid and poorly paid; no longer is home ownership which was obtainable by blue collar workers 30 years ago now the case, and increasingly so for many in the “middle class”. Much of middle class baby boomers wealth was based on home ownership and more so those who invested in rental property.

Very true, Printer8. And the sad irony is that affordable home ownership was a legacy passed down to the blue collar workers of 30 years ago by the preceding generations and their governments and deliberate efforts to achieve affordable home ownership.

That's the number one reason why people disparage the current and recent mantras and policies that do not foster affordable home ownership but rather pay it only lip service, and the thinking that housing should be all about investment portfolios now and not affordable housing for families as it was for the generations who received this gift.

It's also why people don't take the "did it all on my own two feet with no one else's help" claims seriously at all. What we see is the effects for some generations of deliberate affordability efforts, followed by the effects on other generations from the abandoning of such efforts and the change in thinking to it all being about portfolios for older folk.

by alittle | 19th Dec 19, 5:07pm 1576728426

Everyone is going ga ga over house price rise but if foreign money is not at play (Though have doubts) , this rise will be hard to sustain.

I know it is a bold statement when many (most) are talking how the next boom has started.

by THE MAN 2 | 19th Dec 19, 6:42pm 1576734162

If the housing industry was not healthy NZ is in trouble.
I don’t think too many on Interest.co realise how reliant we on having private landlords providing housing to those that rent.
We employ many people and without us there would be a heck of a lot of people out of work!
The state is by far the worst landlord in the country and I wouldn’t be holding your breath if you were waiting for them to improve things.
Since this COL has been in power the no. Of people requiring state housing has increased.

by Millennial_Woman | 20th Dec 19, 1:32am 1576758745

A lot of renters would rather buy the home rather than rent it, but they are locked out because of high prices and low wages. If we are going to accept that home ownership isn't the kiwi dream anymore, and is just for the wealthy, then rental regulations need to change further in favor of tenants. Capitalist markets can not be trusted to treat renters fairly, when they need the a roof over their heads, and the alternative is homelessness. Prices will just continue to increase and the quality of rentals continues to deteriorate, as they have been.

Number of people needing state housing is a direct consequence of the last govt pumping up prices with foreign and laundered money, and that is now flowing through to rents. Don't put that on the COL, they have done more to help people into homes than the Nats ever did/would.

by taimaiakka0 | 20th Dec 19, 6:47am 1576777651

Agree whatever anyone may say but everyone knows that foreign money / money Laundering promoted by last govetnment was responsible for the housing ponzi.

What about now, this surge in house price again is more dangerous for FHB as is from already high price and by the time government finds out (if the want to) that foreign money has found way arounf FBB will be too late so FHB should now concentrate on renting only and forget whatever that kiwi dream of a house use to be.

Sorry but hard reality. Last time was national and this is Labour and WP now whom. Si basically have no choice or may be try TOP.

by THE MAN 2 | 20th Dec 19, 7:59am 1576781976

House prices in NZ are not unaffordable in Nz at all!
Some parts yes, but in most parts no!
With interest rates so low, you can own for less than renting.
It is the choices that you make that generally affects whether you own or rent.

by Seve | 21st Dec 19, 8:37am 1576870621

Ive been in Australia for 20 years ,just returned to the BOP ,Ive lived and worked in every state except Tasmania,im a keen follower of the property market there ,i keep hearing how Australia is less affordable than NZ ,for the life of me with the exception of parts of Sydney and Melbourne ,i can not work out how Australia is less affordable than NZ when i compare the cost of housing,the lower cost of living and stronger wages.

by mikekirk29 | 20th Dec 19, 8:42am 1576784533

Nice to see a new lucid commentary on here

by C'est la vie | 20th Dec 19, 8:34am 1576784089

Well, I'm glad my wife and I got into the Hamilton market a year ago; the FOMO was real for us. As it has transpired we would now be forking out an additional 75k for the same property, and missed a great year of accomplishing some nice renovations.
Personal thanks to those optimistic voices on here, and the balance provided by others who are possibly more risk averse.

by Nzdan | 20th Dec 19, 10:09am 1576789778

I'm glad my wife and I got into our Masterton property a little over 2 years ago for the same reasons. Mortgage/Rates/Insurance are 20%+ cheaper than market rent. Prices have gone up 35 - 40% in that time (Corelogic have my property valued at $100k higher than we paid for it).

by Yvil | 20th Dec 19, 11:34am 1576794872

De rien, c'est la vie

by Dale Smith | 20th Dec 19, 5:32pm 1576816321

It has to be remembered that RE agents make their money on the sale, ie on transactions taking place. They don't care if the market is going up or down, just as long as its moving.

The last thing they want is a stable market where owner investors traded less, because they needed to be in the game long term for a decent return, or owner/occupiers lived in houses that catered to their changing lifestyle needs and hence did not need to change every 7 years of so.

by Max Percy | 22nd Dec 19, 11:38am 1576967921

Seldom do you ever see or hear any negative news from the REINZ or its members in regards property.
They put their spin on the market in a most convincing manner regardless it would appear of where property sits in the cycle.

I only wish the media would spend as much time on introducing ,and encouraging robust debate on alternative investments and in particular the sharemarket.

We in NZ are obsessed with property investment and in so many instances through ignorance and ill informed information plus lack of media attention opportunities for financial security for many of our population goes begging.

The sharemarket has out performed property return on investment in most if not all decades of recent.
The best in NZ being a 18,000 percent plus return over 10 years if shares purchased at time of listing.

Property is a great investment but not everyone can get on the first rung of the ladder.
Every one can virtually get on the first rung of the sharemarket which may well fast track them into home ownership or investment property.