Residential auction activity in December was similar to the same time last year

Residential auction activity in December was similar to the same time last year

Residential auction sales volumes in the first half of December were similar to the same time last year, but the sales rate was higher this year.

Interest.co.nz monitored 544 auctions over the two week period from December 2-15, compared to 530 over the equivalent period of last year (December 3-16).

However the sales rate was higher this year, with sales recorded on 272 of of the 544 auctions monitored this year, giving an overall sales rate of 50%, compared with a sales rate of 37% in the same period of last year.

Where selling prices could be matched against a property's rating valuation, 69% sold for more than their rating valuation.

In the Auckland market, which accounts for the bulk of auction activity, the sales rate was also exactly 50% in the first two weeks of December, with 55% of the sold properties fetching more than their rating valuations.

Details of the individual properties offered at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

This will be interest.co.nz's last auction report of the year, with auction activity largely drying up over the Christmas-New Year break. We look forward to resuming our auction coverage in 2020 and wish all of our readers the very best for the festive season.

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Yep we seem to be hovering around 50% auction sales for a long while now, though I'm surprised to see some properties in Central Auckland selling for next to nothing, like this 6 bed room home (Though it is leasehold); 75N Hill Street, Onehunga, Auckland. Rating Value: $465,000 (July '17), Sold For: $145,000.

House saleas are near 50% but many houses that are being sold are going premium and it is those houses that are going on premium have lifted the overall market and is quite strong.

Leasehold in Akl has horiffic lease/land values. Some of the Cornwall Park leases are pushing $70k per year aka a $100k salary after tax. That's why they are near worthless.

Yep, the sellers must be feeling the pressure if they're prepared to let them go for next to nothing even in central AKL. See this is part of the reason why I'd never bother with leasehold and apartment, they're just far too risky and costly to maintain.

Hi CJ099,

There’s not much point telling us that black is white and night is day.

We’ve all observed what’s happened to the market over the last 2-3 months. Your lone voice has nil credibility.

TTP

11
up

LOL didumms Ttp, you sound so upset. You can try to insult me as much as you like but I'll keep point out the facts of what's actually happening in the market. Plus when have you ever posted any evidence of what's really happening in the property market, all you do is go around insulting people when the try to show what is really influencing the market. Also if the property market is so good, why haven't you invested and bought a place? :)

69% of houses sold above their RV but someone could go through all 272 sales and find a few that sold badly and make a big deal about them…

55% in Auckland, to be accurate.

So 45% sold below 2017 RVs.

This a subset of auctions where both prices were known.

Sales figures look good to me, especially when you consider the number of unrealistic reserve prices that are going to be out there. Expect better sales figures when the Auckland market is increasing in value, harder to price when the tides going out on what the sellers are expecting and the gap is widening instead of closing.

Did you read this yet Mikekirk, summary, more auctions, more volume and higher prices. Hows your prediction shaping up?

Yes dear, I read it.
Number sold up on last year in same fortnight: huge sample.
Which forecast are you referring to, I have to keep repeating it, so here it is AGAIN, for those with a declining memory"

1. Median price in Auckland to begin declining in March 2020 and to fall to $670k by end of 2021.
I won't bother with the rationale at this point, to keep it short.

2. This is not a crash and a crash is not forecast. It is reversion to the mean mixed with fact that world flow of capital is going to be hit by a liquidity crunch.
In addition, as I have written ad infinitum, Auckland has a surplus of housing for sale and is not selling it. It continues to pile up new builds and sells fewer in each 6m block of
time. This has been going on since 2016.

3. Please remember that stock is up 6.5% since 2013 and as such sales should have risen, not fallen.
Also, please recall that inflation is 2% so price rises have to have this deducted to show real increases.

Is 6.5 percent increase in stock since 2013 significant considering 2 factors
1. That nz population has risen since 2013
2. There was a buying frenzy in 2013. There was a shortage of listings by sellers and buying demand insatiable.
Funny but I thought that the price declines were going to commence in April not March, printer8 can possibly confirm. Question when you made this specific prediction did you foresee the current resurgence Mike?

Stock up , int rates down and sales down. Significance of this combination is obvious or should be: over supply.
Over supply leads to price decline
Remember we were told under supply caused price rise

Why do you describe that as oversupply mike. This is equilibrium and 2013 was a standout. You should look at trends Mike, once started cant be stopped so your prediction has no chance of succeeding without a meteor hitting earth lol

Trends can’t be stopped. Priceless.
2007-9 never happened

I read a prediction that 2020 will see some mortgage interest rates below 3 percent! That's 2 point something percent. So according to your theory, "interest rates down" is a sign that the property market will succumb and prices WILL FALL 30 percent. On the other hand, mortgages become more affordable and those fhb who are ready with deposits will be able to buy and thus demand will increase and PRICES INCREASE.

Tick tock, tick tock the clock moves another knock,
Ever closer to its goal, on it marches
The 2020 goal Mike nominated,
The 1st day of March

TRENDS cant be stopped easily "once started". Surely you know that Mike.

Note amended text: now saying “easily” So imperative been edited out

You have to read the full text which said "once started". Ahh My Prrecioouus, you're being more precious than normal.

HW trends can only be plotted in hindsight, after the prices have moved. The past is not a perfect predictor of the future.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/randomwalktheory.asp

39% more sales via auction than 1 year ago is quite a jump

Small samples, as you should know, are not indicative of anything except misunderstanding statistical laws of relevance and weighting.

I didn't say it was indicative of anything, I just said that 39% more sold via auction compared to the same month a year ago is a big increase, which it definitely is. It could even have been the main headline.

Some October residential sales figures for you, to show, tongue firmly in cheek, that overseas flow of capital has next to no impact on Auckland market:

2016: 1911
2017: 1585 (Chinese blocked transfers) Change on 2016: down 17%
2018: 1998 (month of Overseas Buyer ban intro). Change on 2017: up 26% (front running)
2019: 1820.

10m figures for NZ up to end of October:

2016: 80,731
2017: 62,834
2018: 64,141
2019: 59,551

Tell me again, cheerleaders: WHY is 2020 going to be better for RE?
Is it because international growth is rising?
Is it because China and USA are going to be bosom buddies?
Is it because people buy more when prices go up?

NZ sales with Auckland deducted (hint: buyers decline when prices rise)
Too great a rise clubs buyers: hence they are not good for the market and not good for Agents.

NZ - A, residential only sales, to end of October (10m)

2016: 58,513
2017: 46,242
2018: 45,626
2019: 42,240

I see $30b nz left HK in third quarter.
Of course we who suggest some connection between this 4 fold increase on prev quarter and the sales jump in Auckland City prices in Sept-November are conspiratorial fools. In first quarter it was nil

Do you have a source for that figure Mike?

David Chaston this morning in his round up

@ Fritz & Mike, Also if you run a quick internet search on "Hong Kong capital flight" you'll find heaps of recent article on it and how it's is starting to further inflate Western housing markets that are popular safe havens for Chinese money. And how it is also impacting other investment areas such as cryptocurrencies as well. Question is; how soon will the Chinese authorities fully clamp down on these out flows yet again?
Merry Christmas. :)

And how it is also impacting other investment areas such as cryptocurrencies as well.

Really? These must be OTC purchases. BTC has been relatively benign in P3M.

DGM have beat a hasty retreat over the last few weeks........

Their spurious comments have become much fewer as they face the reality of a strengthening property market.

TTP

Speaking of spurious comments...

Some of us are just bored of this topic, and have more to talk about than house prices....

You only have yourself to blame Fritz as you were the one to make stupid phoney predictions. Now you have talked yourself into a corner, I did warn you.

Hi JC, A lot of it has been around the cryptocurrency exchanges and Hong Kongers having a heavy demand for Bitcoin etc, paying premium prices.
Here's a Forbs article that goes in to a lot more detail on it, quote "Initially, as protests broke out around mid-June, Bitcoin traded at about a $160 USD premium on TideBit, a Hong Kong based exchange".

"As protests have worn on, that premium still persists, with the latest price of Bitcoin on TideBit at $11477.34 USD, about $80 USD higher than the current rate on Coinmarketcap". It's likely that the Chinese authorities have found ways to restrain the market since then, along with their trying to suppress capital flight in general. Forbes article: As Protests In Hong Kong Surge, So Does Demand For Cryptocurrency. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerhuang/2019/08/11/as-protests-in-hong-k...

OK. Thhe current price of BTC is closer to USD7,100 so one wouldn't think capital flight from HK is positively affecting the BTC price. I also wonder if this will affect the price of houses in Auckland. Perhaps in the case of some prices paid, but the idea that hordes of refugees from HK are going to paying a kings' ransom for a piece of suburban Auckland seems to be little more than a pipe dream at the moment.

Happy Xmas to cheerleaders doomsayers and realists alike. Peace on earth, good will towards men

We'll done NZ ;-)