More properties are being offered at auction and more of them are selling

More properties are being offered at auction and more of them are selling

The sales rate hit the two thirds mark at the latest residential property auctions monitored by interest.co.nz.

There were 350 properties offered at auctions monitored by interest.co.nz over the week from 17-23 February, which was up 25% compared to the equivalent week (18-24 February) of last year.

Although that was a reasonable increase in properties being offered by auction compared to the same time last year, the more spectacular increase was in the number of properties that sold.

In the third week of February last year, 107 of the 280 properties offered were sold, giving an overall sales rate of 38%.

But in the the third week of February this year, 234 of the 350 properties offered were sold giving an overall sales rate of 67%.

Prices were also firmer compared to a year ago, with 79% of sales this year being for more than their Rating Valuations, compared to 44% a year ago.

So by almost any measure the market is considerably more buoyant now than it was at this time last year.

Separating out the figures for Auckland, which is far and away the country's largest auction market, activity was also well up compared to a year ago, but not by as much as the national figures.

The total number of properties offered at the Auckland auctions monitored by interest.co.nz was up 19% compared to a year ago, while the sales rate increased from 35% last year to 52% this year.

However prices in Auckland were consistent with the rest of the country, with 76% of Auckland sales being for more than their Rating Valuations, compared to 79% nationally.

Details of the individual properties offered at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz and the results achieved, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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13
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Yeah well the party just ended with a fireworks display compliments of Iran.

lol, would be interesting to see the reaction once the first case of community spread is detected

10
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Yep, still no reason to panic, sounds like this case in Auckland had almost no time in country before going to the hospital and being isolated. If we get through a week without more cases being found it'll fizzle out till the next imported case.

Exactly

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How about the 2 planes full of people he spent 10.5 hours with who have not been contacted by health authorities {check main story on Stuff) arrivals maf/passport control and the other possible contact and then try and track them for 28 days to see if they are contagious good luck.
This why it got out of control in China so quicky and forced them to shut down most of the country.

That's how the numbers in South Korea escalated with the one woman who infected her fellow church congregation members.

Here's the things Carlos67, as Keen Observer68 able to view it: The guy came from Iran, stop over in Bali (stay in Tarmac?/transfer).. phuuih, the Indonesia said.. then to AKL on Wednesday.. confirmed later on Friday. Wait did he came on A380? surely he's not the only passenger there.
Then before you know it, last night in South East AKL 7-9pm - panic buying of grocery/water supplies all over, compounded with this AKL water shortage, the local Chinese communities has been warned in advance/what to expect/prepare by their relative back home. Remember in all honesty? - The Chinese has warned the world about this - this is the calendar year of the pest/Rat - it's not a pet... the massive pest side of it.

In light of the impending coronavirus pandemic what predictions are the property experts on this site making for NZ house prices in 2020?

I just think it’s funny that if there is a global recession it’ll be for a reason completely unrelated to any of the causes predicted by the doomie gloomies. My favourite was “because NZ is no different to 2007 Ireland”.

by Due Diligence | 14th Dec 19, 8:50am
Of course there will be a recession at some point. But the DGMs on this site, yourself included, imply it is imminent year after year based on nothing more than their hopes that it will happen, a refusal to learn from past trends, and a bizarre inclination to think that every bit of negative international news that they see on the internet applies more to NZ than the country that negative event actually occurred in. A bunch of blind squirrels that will one day randomly find a nut and then have the nerve to claim they were right all along.

Hi Due Diligence,

That's a very nice quote.

It sums things up very well.

TTP

Lol so funny to see you guys already coming up with excuses to why the DGM's predictions were right. It hasn't even happened yet... Relax, watch it unfold, perhaps us DGM's got it right this time, so what? Don't be a bad loser.

There isn’t a recession - what do you mean the DGMs were right?

And like clockwork you prove my point - “A bunch of blind squirrels that will one day randomly find a nut and then have the nerve to claim they were right all along.”

Which one of you predicted a pandemic again? And you haven’t even found the nut yet - convid-19 hasn’t yet and may well never lead to an NZ recession.

Can you read? Read my comment first. Stop putting words in my mouth.

You claim that “the DGM's predictions were right“. They have not been right so far. None predicted a pandemic and there hasn’t yet been a recession.

Looks like you've only read the first sentence. Again, read my comment before you respond to it.

I started with the first sentence, which is clearly incorrect. I then read right through to the last sentence - “Don't be a bad loser”. What exactly did I lose?

10
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Some of us suggested there would be a big economic shock in the next year or two without specifying what the cause would be.
Property spruikers like to talk about cycles eg. ‘Property prices double every ten years.’
But then seem to turn a blind eye to the history that shows there is usually a global economic shock every 8 to 10 years...

I’m constantly going on about how historic trends/patterns will continue and every time without fail a DGM pops up and accuses me of “only looking in the rear view mirror”.

We know you and your mates go on about historic trends, but you cherry pick.

The overseas buyer impact and global helicopter money finding its path here are not historically normal. Either are the heights of the surge in the last 10 years. Personally calling uncharted territory from a history perspective. See what's happens.

Personally on the fence, but ready with a vulture fund to buy the dip.

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But I thought NZ's property market was armour plated. It didn't drop more than a couple of percent at the GFC and i have it on good authority it'll be the same again.

Said a figment of your imagination. Drop during the rescission was more like 10%

BB: you can see my prediction in my post below.

I don't think it's quite time to through the towel in.
It's a serious situation but the world is now on high alert so the coming weeks will tell how effective it is including NZ to control the outbreaks we have and will continue to have.
It may well come to pass that a number of countries with poor health facilities and/or population control will suffer the fate of a full blown pandemic.
The only effective action other than a vaccine which is already well under development but will take 12 months + to be approved as safe, is controlled isolation of infected cases.
It must be accepted that there will be significant economic challenges over the duration of this virus cycle but there will be an end to it along with a significant economic up turn.

The vaccine is a longshot to get to market in 12 months more like 18 plus months by then this virus would have caused massive changes to everything just watch what is going to happen to our tourism industry from April onwards.

By the time 12 to 18 months has passed COVID 19 may have done most of its damage, and it will probably become another endemic respiratory disease that pops up each winter and kills a few of the most frail.

Good point, Doris and spot on. However, the damage is going to be done over the next two or three months. It’s going to take at least 12 months to recover.

"More properties being offered for auction"
Appears to be a possible interesting marketing trend in auction results.
Auctions - rather than say fixed price - are the preferred selling method when there is either considerable demand for properties (a sellers market with lots of competition from buyers) or little demand from buyers (a buyers market with little competition); this translates to competition among buyers in the first instance and desperation among sellers in the second. In either case there is a high level of uncertainty of price as there is competition either on price or just getting a sale.
For the early part of last year (and the previous two years) the Auckland market was a little depressed, a buyers market, and unsurprisingly low clearance rates for auctions (about 35%).
I posted in the later part of last year (from about September) that the number of Auckland auctions was down, that as overall sales in REINZ reports were still firm, that this indicate possibly appeared to be a shift in preferred marketing to methods such as fixed term offers. As I said, this was one sign - along with drivers - that indicated a possible upswing in the Auckland market which did become apparent in November (although still not accepted by some on this site!!!!).
With the number of auctions now being relatively high and success rates also relatively high, it looks as though this reflects that the Auckland market is clearly swung to a sellers market and competition among buyers.
Is this a precise and sure reflection of the future of the market - it is not by any means certain but it is a significant early indicator that currently (recent week) that the Auckland market is reasonably strong and competitive with continue to put upward pressure on prices.
As an aside; so what impact will the impact of Convid-19 be?
Are purchasers getting apprehensive. Even this week's auction numbers are still a little early to see if it will impact the Auckland property market (in comparison the share market which is a lot more reactive and immediate to such events) as the full extent of the pandemic was not really appreciated until mid to late week.
I suggest that auction numbers and clearance rates - as they are the most immediate data that we get - could be an early indicator of what is going to happen. Don't be surprised to see subdued auction results over the next few weeks.
My call at the moment as to the impact of the virus on the market? A lot will depend on how the virus plays out in the next few weeks or so.
Interesting to note that while the Wall Street was being hit, the most recent US housing market was experiencing an upswing.
My call is that on balance there will not be a bubble burst although at worst the market will be subdued with purchasers being a little apprehensive. (This nervousness was in a post by one person last week who was on the brink of purchasing a property.)
Why no bubble burst and at worst a subdues market? A few reasons:
Firstly; already cash rate cuts are being mooted which will reduce mortgage rates and create demand. And for those who forever post it is simply about propping up housing market - well it is about propping up the wider economy of which housing is just one part and just as much about you keeping your job.
Secondly, there is already increasing interest by investors in the local property market according to RBNZ data this week - likely due to a variety of longer term factors such as lack of CGT, poor TD and cash rates, and improving yields. As there is increasing investor interest at the moment, and if properties start to provide better yields if prices ease, that will encourage further support.
Thirdly, the property market will not be as reactive as the share market. Just over 60% of our houses are homes which can't be readily just sold. For property investors; if the rent is still coming in, then short term value of the property of the house is irrelevant - they will just hunker it out - it is comparatively expensive and more difficult to get out compared to baling out of shares.
Fourthly, in comparison to shares, property is perceived to be safer so don't necessarily translate what is happening in the share market to the property market.
Yes; if the impact on the economy is exceptionally extreme there could be house price concerns - but then house prices are likely to be of secondary consideration as there would be widespread chaos in the economy with collapses of businesses and one's job being at exceptionally high risk.
Sleep easy.

Well put.
I am less concerned about the virus and more concerned about the major structural issues in the world economy, which the virus will exacerbate. Whether it will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back remains to be seen...
Assuming the virus is relatively contained in NZ then I would expect general flatness in prices this year. If it spreads widely, then I think prices could drop at least 5%, as panic widens and people shut down their activity and spending.
But I would be more worried about those underlying issues. If they finally snap, then we could easily see the bubble truly pop.

One scenario is that the market declines a bit until spring, when it might boom if the virus has cleared away and the ocr is zero...just saying

Yes, I hadn’t thought of your last point, Fritz... a spring surge could very well happen, IF the virus is contained.

Yeah the big ‘if’...
But yeah if it is by spring, then rates could be super low and there will be pent up demand

Fritz - agree with you.
Good rational and qualified and/or substantiated points made.
Yes there is considerable uncertainty; clearly the two current major influences - the extent of a pandemic and action by central banks including RBNZ - are unknown so I suspect even even experienced economic commentators will be watching and currently waiting on making short to medium term assumptions.
I agree with you that there is considerable risk to what is considered over valued share and property markets in terms of historic measures.
In terms of the property market, I think the virus fallout is more likely to impact on the Auckland market rather than regional ones - here in the Hawke's Bay we feel just one step further removed from the virus and its consequences.
In terms of our local economy, forestry is already impacted (and the recently floated port shares have taken a considerable hammering) but tourism probably going to be less so. In terms of tourism, we are more dependent on independent travelers (young backpackers and older from Europe) who are less concerned with the risks, and certainly not Chinese and Asian package tourists - there may be some down turn in ship visits but they are day tourists so will have no impact on tourism infrastructure, most attractions are not big employers, and most operators small. Still going to be demand for agriculture although there may be shifts in international markets.
So at the moment, probably the biggest impact is outbound tourism - not so much about the threat of the virus itself, but rather the potential for travel disruptions and restrictions.

A factor not considered so far in these comments is the impact of the virus on immigration.
If there is significant increase in the virus, we are likely to see a decline in the recent increasing numbers of New Zealanders emigrating, possibly more expat Kiwis returning, and attracting more foreigner immigrants due to our isolation.
An increase in immigration is going to put upward pressure on house prices.

Only if these people can get work. Most people can weather most things when money is coming in as per usual. What does the scenario look like if thousands of people are out of work or living on a reduced income because their hours were cut?

A lot of kiwisavers about to get a nasty shock which may affect fhb deposits.

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/home-price-scenarios-in-a-covid...

Most will find these scenarios unpalatable. It’s what may happen as a result of central bankers keeping interest rates too low for too long. As a result asset prices have been severely overinflated. Covid19 is simply the pin that bursts the bubble.

Yep it's tough to know what to do as a first time buyer. We have enough money in the bank for a significant deposit, but have yet to buy in NZ, although we've been here 8 years. We have a couple of properties overseas but the NZ market doesn't feel like an easy one to jump into! I find myself wishing we'd bought into 2012, but we've moved around quite a bit and the time wasn't quite right for various reasons. Now interest rates are low, but it looks so much like a bubble it's hard to feel confident it's a good decision when you're entering the market. Moving up is a much easier call...not so much moving down, and not at all when you're an (NZ) FTB and this could set your economic future for the next 10 - 20 years. Ugh!

To top it off, having (almost) decided to commit, our lender basically invited us to commit mortgage fraud by telling the underwriter (without my permission) that we would have a subtenant renting out a room (we won't, although in theory we could), and we 'just need to get a letter from a friend saying they will be renting a room off you.' This sort of thing is exactly what contributed to to the GFC in 2008 overseas—I wonder where the line is. So yes, Covid-19 does increasingly look like it could be the 'global shock' that upends the property market in NZ, with the perfect storm brewing in terms of affordability, dodgy mortgage practices and changes in legislation.

I'm still looking at homes (seeing one today), but making the leap is a nauseating prospect. :-/

If all first home buyers stopped for buying for say 6 months that would help send prices south (currently 18 percent are first home buyers) and then start haggling for price discounts as the market is only positive now on peoples emotions
Also if this virus hits which is a very high chance think about the ramifications many deceased etates flooding the market and supply excess and limited buyers due to people losing jobs etc.
Unless the house price is very good at the moment you would have to be crazy to buy with whats happening???.

And foreign investors that got in before the buyer ban who may seek to repatriate their capital by listing their properties for sale.

Very sensible. I would not buy now.

Is that not why you don't own a house?

" our lender basically invited us to commit mortgage fraud by telling the underwriter (without my permission) that we would have a subtenant renting out a room (we won't, although in theory we could), and we 'just need to get a letter from a friend saying they will be renting a room off you.' "

Just out of interest, who was it that suggested getting the false letter?
1) mortgage broker?
2) bank staff?
3) finance company staff?
4) other

Could be a sign of something more systemic here as you comment above which contributed to 2008 GFC.

It was our mortgage broker. He'd secured us a pretty large loan on this basis—more than we actually need...

Thank you for that.

Mortgage brokers are financially incentivized to get the loan approved by the bank. That is how they get paid. If the loan isn't approved then they don't get paid, and then they view the time that they spent on the loan application as being wasted (unless they can sell you something else).

Also given that mortgage brokers are paid based on loan size, the larger the mortgage, then the larger their commission in dollar terms. Since the mortgage broker is not taking any credit risk, they have all upside, and no downside - the payoffs are asymmetric for mortgage brokers. Also that is why mortgage brokers are incentivized to get borrowers to refinance after a period of time after the mortgage brokers commission payment stream is finished. (Then perhaps they persuade the borrower to refinance with another bank, then they earn another commission).

This has resulted in mortgage brokers getting borrowers to take on more debt than they really need in many cases, an amount that may be too high to service in a recession.

Evidence of mortgage fraud by mortgage brokers came to light in the Haynes Commission in Australia. Some borrowers were caught with too much debt, and some financially illiterate believed that if the bank gave them the money in the first place, then that must have meant that they could afford it.

Well Big Data in reply I have every cent to my name currently in the Bank and I WAS looking forward to buy a house up until yesterday. Now my outlook has been clouded by this Coronavirus. I cannot believe how so many people just don't have a clue about the impact its going to have, even the people on here. I think to many have their heads stuck in what their "house is worth today" and their lives in general that they have not even bothered to watch some news outside of the main stream media that continues to play this down, right up until the last hour when it becomes obvious to everyone that this is going to be really bad. Yes I will be at a house auction in a couple of weeks time BUT the situation could be VERY different in the market to what it is currently. The next 2 weeks are critical on it progression. I said a week ago they should have stopped ALL FLIGHTS but its to late now it here and out in the open, just like a nark list and its going to be mission impossible to stop it.

The spruikers know its coming, they are just trying to convince other mugs to jump in the market to keep their ponzi scheme going. They do not care about other people, they simply want to keep themselves richer. Pure greed.

I think you give the people you call "spruikers" too much credit, do you really think they can influence the whole RE market by a few posts on Interest?

No, but then the question becomes what is the point of the arguments, the name calling and insults on this website....

Who are you trying to convince - me or yourself......

Some spruikers here are already coming up with excuses :D It's hilarious really. If we don't predict a recession and it happens, we are idiots. If we predict a recession and it happens, we are blind squirrels. Can't be right, ever, no matter what us "DGM's" do.

My partner and I are in a similar position. Couple of houses and my partner is looking to buy one in Germany right now. The driving force is low interest rates. We can get a 25 year mortgage fixed for 10 years at 0.47% from Commerzbank, or 15 years fixed for 0.8%. The other half is really keen but I'm pretty apprehensive. Even mildly negative interest rates wouldn't tempt me if I though houses were going to go down in value.

Am in a similar position to you Big Data, with a large deposit and big loan ready to go. However, I’m going to sit this out for awhile and watch.
The property bulls on this site will tell you house prices double every ten years and the bears, that we are in for an imminent crash. All I know is, I see a swan in the gathering dawn and I can’t make out if it’s a black or a white one.
Some major markets have lost up 12% in just a week. That’s going to hurt a whole bunch of people. Tourism is down, way down and this is just the start in NZ. Imagine you’ve been hedging your bets on an Airbnb investment property and no one is staying?
The Baltic Dry Index is at its second lowest on record, lower than during the GFC. China is in lock down and little is getting in or out....
Even what appears to be massive PRC government intervention to prop up their stock market has lost them billions... how long can they, the PRC afford to lose 5% in a day!?
I’ve noticed some very simple, but specifically China made products, are no longer on shop shelves. No biggy, but it’s starting to tell a story.

What’s making me a little more nervous, is economists are telling me NOT to panic...
Like an air hostess screaming into bull horn, “don’t panic! Stay calm,” as you watch the wing burning and fire trucks driving up at speed...

Don’t look back, all it’ll do is hurt your neck.

So for me and what’s right form family, is to stay put for the next 6 months... if prices are up 5 or 6 % in that time? Well I’ll have to wear that and it’s a risk I am willing to take. This thing has just started and no one knows. Yet!

Thats interesting about the subtenant thing, my colleague was instructed to do the same thing which he accepted so he could borrow more! I wonder how common this is?

Very!

can you tell us who is making the recommendation for the subtenant letters?

1) mortgage brokers?
2) bank staff?
3) finance company staff?
4) other?

Would that behaviour meet the Responsible Lending Guidelines?

If the borrower subsequently defaults (say in a recession) as were enabled by someone (not sure who at the moment) to take on too much debt by the lender, then the borrower may have some recourse against some party deemed responsible.

Refer Haynes Commission in Australia ...

BD, you said: "I find myself wishing we'd bought into 2012". There's your answer, now just make sure you're not still wishing in a few years time

And yet, Yvil, I have also seen crashes and wished I had WAITED two years to buy. This is the conundrum. It's not always 'a great time to buy'. Some times, specifically, are dreadful. Especially those around the time of a looming GFC...

I get your point but timing the housing market is a loser's game, nobody knows if it will go down and if so when it will go up again. What we do know though, is that, over the long term, house prices go up. Waiting is dangerous because psychologically it can become entrenched in your psyche (house purchases are not just financial matters they are very much an emotional matter) and you end up still waiting in another 8 years…

Well Yvil, I hear you point, and have made the same myself in the past. I'm aware that prices go up over the long term. I've owned eight properties over the years, and had five simultaneously at one point. So I think my psyche will be okay... :) The two I have overseas I've held for years; they are cash-flow positive and getting better by the month in terms of value and yield. (Well, as of last month anyway...maybe not next month!) On the flip side, when there is a rapid decline, it's very painful to look at your mortgage debt and realise you could be living in a far superior property and be paying less in loan repayments if you'd exercised more caution. So yes, timing the market is a mug's game...but still, there are lessons to be learned from the past. I can't help but think there is a bubble in NZ and so many signs that we're headed for a bad burst. Who knows, maybe I'll feel different in 6 months. Definitely planning to wait and see a bit longer. I won't be buying the one we saw this afternoon; in fact I expect it will be on the market a wee while, judging by the sounds other buyers were making...

Heavens sake BD; you should be buying a house to live in; it is called a home, it is not called a short term investment.
So what if there is short term fluctuations as long as you can service your mortgage what’s the issue.
You really sound as though once you buy a home all you are going to be concerned about is waking up each day and wondering what it is worth.
Seriously if you are besotted with the value of your home as the paramount consideration you need to seriously look at yourself.
Pathetic.

No need to be rude, my friend. :) I'm well aware that I'm potentially buying a home to live in. I've actually had articles published on the subject in the media, and I've called out people's tendencies to overlook what a home really is. It's not just about equity, nor is a home simply shelter; as Yvil said, there is a large emotional component to home-ownership, and for former renters, being able to settle in, do a place up the way you like it, get a dog, not be at the mercy of a landlord's whims...all these things are important. Actually, it's the current NZ obsession with using property for wealth creation that has in part caused the issues we see in Auckland. Most of my capital (apart from my rentals) is in the bank and invested into my own company. I like business and hard graft for wealth creation. Capital growth from a home is a bonus; owning outright is the dream. That said, I don't much like the idea of spending $1.1m on a home that is worth $900k in two years' time. I don't think anyone does. That would just be silly...and the market is super iffy right now, there's no two ways about it.

Contrary to what you said (rather angrily, if you ask me—are you feeling okay?), the 'short term fluctuations' don't bother me in the least. However I am somewhat bothered about the risk of another imminent GFC and a potentially large price decline here (similar to what we've seen in numerous overseas markets not unlike NZ)—these things matter more to those who have just purchased. I'm neither 'besotted with the value of [my] home' (since I don't yet own one, although I do check in on the market value of my rentals from time to time—my Realtor sends me automatic updates; it's pretty cool, but I think she just wants me to list them ;-) ) nor am I 'waking up each day wondering what it's worth'. I might wish we'd bought in NZ in 2012, but I'm quite glad I didn't buy in 2019, or 2018, probably 2017, and potentially, 2016 too, looking at where prices have been heading.

Have a nice day.

BD
Your comments come across as one in dire need of a life coach. Get on with life.
That is not being rude - rather being kind to you.

Your comments are inconsistent - and along with your replies - suggest a troll.
Some inconsistencies:
- you claim to currently own some rentals (two, three, four????) here in NZ for fifteen years but have only been in the country eight years
- you are "new to market and don't want to jump in" but have owned these rentals for fifteen years,
- on the one hand while you claim to have rentals and seemingly unconcerned about any short term fluctuation, yet not a home because your of concerns about short term fluctuations (wot????)
- you try to come across naive FHB but have your own business and have dealt with tenants for fifteen years.
You need to get your story consistent.

I've had the rentals for fifteen years or so. Short term fluctuations don't matter in that instance. Also they were priced considerably lower than a home I intend to live in would be.

When *entering* a *new* market it pays to exercise caution. I realise you have some sort of vested interest and that in your world, everyone must 'buy buy buy!' at all times, but it is quite simply illogical to propose that it is *always* a good time to buy. I have concerns that the current NZ market might be about to enter into a period of long-term decline. This is not the same as short term fluctuations. Please read my post again and perhaps consider revisiting your tone when commenting next time. You sound rather rude, condescending and perhaps in need of a therapist. Everyone doesn't have to see the world the way you do.

Big Data
Cheers.

You are either delusional or playing trolling games:
by Big_Data | 9th Apr 19, 5:59pm
Hi Joe, I've sold hundreds of mortgagee sale properties (albeit in the USA during the GFC).

Sorry P8 I don't understand the point you're making. The above is true: what does it have to do with my posts about buying now in NZ and caution around a GFC? It's precisely *because* I've seen and sold so many mortgagee homes the last GFC that I've concerns around buying at the top of the market. Negative equity hurts families and communities. I'd like to try and avoid it.

Ah, I didn't see your explanation as to why you think I'm a troll. Thanks for taking the time to research me. You must really care! :D Allow me to set you straight and perhaps you can relax.

I originally lived in the UK and owned 3 homes (2 simultaneously) over there. I then moved to the US and purchased a few homes there between 2004 and 2011. I don't remember the exact dates. I lived in 3 of them consecutively and sold 3 of them. At one point I had 5 in the US at the same time, one primary and the rest rentals. Although it may have been 6, I can't remember if I still had the UK one at the time. During this time I worked as a real estate agent and sold hundreds of properties. Most were foreclosures (or mortgagee sales as you call them) but many were 'short sales' (where the bank allows the vendor to sell the home for less than the loan amount and negotiate a lower pay off). The values of these homes had declined 40 to 60% from the peak and around 60% of all the properties sold in the city were in some stage of distress. I sold almost 100% repos as these represented great value and several of my clients were investors, either looking to flip, or to fix up and rent out.

I then moved to NZ in 2012 and kept 3 US rentals. One we had lived in for a year and then rented out, one was a mortgagee sale we lived in and did up while we were there (resurfaced the pool, fixed all the insulation, new windows, all new flooring and paint, new blinds, resurfaced the popcorn ceiling, redid the landscaping, and a few other bits and pieces). The third was a mortgagee sale too: we bought it, cleaned up the dog piss, fixed a few items and rented it straight out.

Having moved to the S Island in NZ we weren't in a position to buy as our money was tied up in our business and we weren't 100% sure where we would settle. In hindsight we should have purchased and then rented that home out when we moved to Auckland. But we weren't familiar with NZ real estate and decided to wait a while longer until things were clearer.

So, I am not a 'naive first home buyer' by any means, but yet to take the leap into a staggeringly overpriced NZ market. It's probably *because* of my past experiences in overseas markets that I have concerns around jumping in to NZ. Perhaps I am nervous, as you say. Previous property investments I've made have looked lower risk. I'd be happy to buy a place here as an investment or primary (one day both I hope, I love property) but that said, I don't much like the idea of seeing my hard-earned dollars evaporate in a declining market. It's very easy to buy a home, and easy to see your cash slip away.

I hope this settles your anxiety but do feel free to shoot me any further questions, P8, if there is anything you still don't understand. Happy to enlighten you. I'm concerned you may not sleep at night otherwise

Those who have not learnt from the lessons of history, may ultimately learn the lessons from first hand experience ...

FYI, here is a book on the UK experience written by a real estate agent:

https://www.amazon.com/Housing-Downturn-Picking-Pieces-ebook/dp/B00B1XDY...

"What we do know though, is that, over the long term, house prices go up. Waiting is dangerous because psychologically it can become entrenched in your psyche (house purchases are not just financial matters they are very much an emotional matter) and you end up still waiting in another 8 years."

I know that there is a genuine desire to help here and that this advice comes with a lot of well meaning.

However, what we also know is that people who are stretching household budgets to purchase a house, may be unable to continue meeting mortgage payments if one household income earner experiences a loss or reduction in income.

Some industries that are experiencing income loss are tourism related industries, and some exporter related businesses.

To suggest that a person should buy property without any consideration whatsoever to their personal financial circumstances is in my opinion, wholly irresponsible.

Just stick to talking about property prices, avoid suggesting anyone buy or sell.

"I know that there is a genuine desire to help here and that this advice comes with a lot of well meaning"

Thanks a lot for recognising that CN, I do appreciate it

Yvil is correct.

DGM are lacking balls.

TTP

Oh bless you TTP. You are really resorting to insulting my manly prowess to prop up your house of cards? How do you think those big-balled buyers from 2018 are feeling now? Staunchly swinging them around as they stride around their over-priced homes, calling everyone else a big girl's blouse? Okay boomer, you got me.

Oh bless you TTP. You are really resorting to insulting my manly prowess to prop up your house of cards? How do you think those big-balled buyers from 2018 are feeling now? Staunchly swinging them around as they stride around their over-priced homes, calling everyone else a big girl's blouse? Okay boomer, you got me.

I would not use these words TTP, we are all different and a first house purchase is huge (financially and emotionally). I come from a very risk averse family (my parents never owned a house) and had I not married my wife, whose family is much more risk friendly, I may still not own any property today

Yvil
Yes, but note that Big Data is not your typical first home buyer - he/she has had rentals (note plural) for fifteen years.
In fact the inconsistencies in his story and the nature of his replies indicated that he is nothing but a troll playing games.

Please point out the 'inconsistencies' and I'll gladly clarify. I assume we must have a misunderstanding somewhere along the way.

Here is someone who is also facing the same conundrum.

"Yes a home is to live in but negative equity sucks mate"

Exactly. And how long did it take to save the amount of money that was lost and caused the negative equity situation?

Then there is the psychological and physical toll on you and your family.

I know people who own property still valued below what they paid for it, after owning for 10 years. And if you count the interest costs paid over that period, they effectively paid $100 for an asset worth less than $100.

The choice is between:
1) the pain & regret of missing out, if property prices rise
2) the pain & regret of losing your money (and hard earned savings), if property prices don't rise (or fall)

Ask those who have experienced the loss of their deposit (and being in negative equity which choice of the above they would make. There have been a few who have purchased in Auckland in the last 2-3 years. (Remember that being in negative equity means that the person has lost 100% or more of their initial deposit that they laid out to purchase the property)

Then perhaps you can choose which is the more painful option to you and avoid that one.

"I know people who own property still valued below what they paid for it, after owning for 10 years"

Where? Certainly not in a main city in NZ

Yvil,
Don't be prejudicial by excluding small centres - even Ekatahuna's small number of remaining homeowners have seen an increase in prices in the past decade. True. :)

Random example: 23 Bridge Street Eketahuna - Sold April 2013 $90,000; Rateable value 2017 $110,000; Insight valuation $190,000. Property is booming in Ekethuna.
Check out 12 Bridge Street Eketahuna - Sold Sept 2016 $157,000; sold May 2018 $230,000; current Insight valuation $260,000.

Here's an investment choice for you:

1) put money in the bank and earn 2-3% per annum? or;
2) buy your own home, invest $61,000 over 11 years and get $16,000 at the end of it? (That’s a loss of 74% of their money. )

Certainly seems like a simple decision doesn't it? How could anyone even think about option 2?

Well that is what happened to this owner who bought using a 90% LVR P&I mortgage. Remember back in 2008, owner occupiers could use 90% LVR.

i) The $61,000 is their initial deposit of $22,900 (10% of purchase price), and the principal payments on their mortgage over that 11 year period.
Ii) The $16,000 is the net sales proceeds of the house after repayment of the mortgage and deduction for selling costs.

Now imagine the impact of that single decision to buy on their future financial security and retirement …

Bought June 2008 at $229,000, sold 11 years later on June 2019 for $190,000 - a loss of 17% over 11 years.
So much for the property prices doubling every 10 years. The property price didn't even keep up with inflation during that period - the property price was NEGATIVE 1.5%per annum, so that is 3.5% below the target inflation rate of the RBNZ).

https://www.qv.co.nz/property/10-eva-street-greymouth-7805/1364994

The above numbers don't even include the additional estimated $125,000 or so paid in bank interest over the 11 year period for the privilege of owning their own home for 11 years.

2006: Purchase price $290,000
2016: Sale price $230,000. A drop of 20% over 10 years.

Add leverage with that - possibly financed the purchase with a 90% LVR mortgage. Owner occupier lost a lot here in percentage terms. Assuming a 10% deposit of $29,000, compare that to the property price fall of $60,000 between the purchase price and sale price - more than 200% of their initial deposit.

A couple of observations:
1) price of property didn't double in 10 years
2) price of property didn't keep up with inflation.

https://www.qv.co.nz/property/6-sievwright-lane-whataupoko-gisborne-4010...

Bought 2006 for $164,500.
Sold in 2019 for $140,000. A loss of 15% over 13 years of ownership.

Assuming an LVR of 90% and a deposit of 10%, that would be $16,450. Compare that to the drop in price of $24,500, which is almost 150% of the deposit..

https://www.qv.co.nz/property/56-romilly-street-westport-7825/1055725

Great news for the economy!

We need the banks to get out and lend lend lend for real estate purchasing.

However with term deposit rates so low im surprised house sales keep rising. Banks can't lend unless mums and dads deposit savings in the banks! It's those deposits which they then lend out to inspiring home owners as the editor has explained multiple times on this site.

Mortgage lending eventually becomes a deposit again. FHBer borrows from Westpac, buys from Vendor who banks with ANZ. Voila, ANZ have a deposit.

Thats correct nzdan

When somebody says banks don't create credit the banking system does. All that is is bank A creates on demand deposit which could end up in bank C.

So banks need deposits to make the books balance. It's actually illegal for banks to lend deposits. They borrow every night from each other to make the books balance. Car companies don't work together like this. If they cant source funds the central bank lends it to them ie the repo market.

ANZ funds came from China, courtesy of JK assurances with Xi/CCP1

Oil and Gold dropping rapidly? This is a strange situation. GFC2.0 looks to have arrived. I am so glad I don't have any debt. This would be a scary time to own investment property with money owing. The warning signs couldn't be any bigger.

What’s interesting, is market commentators are saying “while the selling was aggressive, there was little sign of panic.” That is a worry! If markets are already so much in the red, without panic, what happens when someone does?

Not really. With interest rates going down most rentals will become cash positive. You can hold as long as you want.

So all good news then?

For landlords with sensible debt levels. Yes.

you think interest rates are going down further?

I do, swap rates are currently plunging and I cannot see any reason that would lead central banks to react differently than lowering cash rates to upcoming problems.

I wasn't asking you, i already know you have filters on.

Sorrrrry, I thought we were all allowed to comment. BTW what 2 points I made do you disagree with?

This country is in trouble. Now Jacinda 'the appeaser' has left the doors open for fear of being called xenophobic. She has risked all our lives. She has also just reprimanded Scomo for sending NZ citizens back to NZ. Its funny as she doesn't want to take her own citizens from Oz but she is demanding that all of their unwanted boat refugees (who's criminal or war crimes are unknown) be sent directly to NZ? Is this some kind of a joke?

Woke joke

WOW, more than double the properties sold (238) than the same week last year(107), a strong market indeed!

and very high prices too with: "79% of sales this year being for more than their Rating Valuations, compared to 44% a year ago."

Partying on the Titanic

Black is white and white is black. Keep this pyramid going at all costs.

Pyramid? Walk like an Egyptian?

And Yvil and TTP will be the orchestra that keeps on playing while everybody else runs for the lifeboats.
Now let's see if this ship sinks.

All stops will be pulled out to ensure it won’t, that’s for sure.
Whether that’s enough, time will tell...

Courtjester, that's very nice of you to describe us as selfless as "the orchestra that keeps on playing while everybody else runs for the lifeboats"

You know what happens to the orchestra, right?

"I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked, nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in disaster."
-Titanic Captain Edward Smith in 1907

Yes Fritz, the orchestra were the noblest of men, playing to the end and perishing as a result.
The first class passengers (the ones with lots of assets and lots of mortgages) got saved in the life rafts
The average citizens, got shafted and drowned.

Not a nice parallel but a very true one. Maybe all the posters that continuously comment about the Titanic should give this comment some honest thoughts

Come on dude... surely, surely you are smarter, more articulate and a deeper thinker than this comment? The whole world has changed over the last seven days.
Seriously, tell us why the market is going to go gang-busters after this week and why now, is a good time to get into the market?

We await the intelligent and rational response

You might get through most of your emergency supplies before that happens.

Which part of my 2 comments do you disagree with? I'm simply quoting the numbers from Interest, and saying they are very strong. Are you saying their data is wrong?

PS, I didn't say "the market was going to go gangbusters", these are your words, not mine

Dp

You are always talking up the market. So I was wondering how this time, you’d explain why the market will go gang-busters? I am being genuine, I want to hear.

Again, I did not say the market was going to go gangbuster or that it was going to go up. Actually I didn't make any prediction at all as to the future direction of the market

That’s not entirely the truth, is it Yvill? After all you call anyone who is worried about a downturn in the market a Doom and Gloomer... or some other similar disparaging comment.
But, believe it or not, I honestly wanted to hear why the market was going to go up...

So why do you think house prices are going to go "gangbusters" GHH?

You did predict the market to reach a new high in March (reported in April)
And you might be right. Or not.

That's correct, I made this prediction in September 2019, but my earlier comment on this thread was clearly referring to today article

General Hubhub, I've answered your question, can you answer mine please?

Which part of my 2 comments do you disagree with? I'm simply quoting the numbers from Interest, and saying they are very strong. Are you saying their data is wrong?

Please read my comment above sir.

I cannot see any comments you made, that is answering my question, would you mind reposting it. Thanks

Mate, every day you insult people as you talk up the market. You haven’t answered my question. My question is and remains, how do you see the market going gangbusters ( this is pretty much what you espouse on every other post on this site) and how are the people you derogatorily call doom and glooners, wrong this time round. I remain genuinely interested into your reasoning on why the market will keep going. I’ll even accept an answer from one of your various nom de plums.

Before you called me "sir" now "mate", I'm neither.
Next point is talking the market up (or down as many do ) is not insulting anyone. If you cannot accept other people's opinions without feeling insulted you should refrain from commenting.
Lastly you are a bit thick, 3 times I told you that I have not predicted the market to go "gangbusters" (your own words) neither did I say the market will go up on any of my comments above. So I can not tell you "why the market will keep going up" because I have not said it will and I'm not convinced it will, especially past March 2020. How can you not understand this?

Sigh... ok boomer! Always resorting to name calling, to avoid answering a pretty simple question. How do I explain ‘semantics’ to you in a simple fashion? I’ll try using little words for you... you regularly say “prices go up quickly and all the time.” I précis your sentence by swapping 8 words, for one - “gangbusters” which means the same thing as what you say all the time....”prices go up quickly all the time.” You understand now? Am not sure I can break it down for you anymore... so I will rephrase to a simple form for you because I see you are struggling somewhat...
how at this time with a bad money time coming for the big world, can you keep saying money for houses will keep going up quickly and lots?
Is that better?

You didn’t say ‘gangbusters’ But with your ‘WOW’ and description of a ‘strong market‘ you implied it

Well I stand by it, more than double the amount of sales as the same week last year and 79% above RV is very strong. Don't you agree?

It’s moderately strong, for now. Noting you are comparing against a very weak base,
I don’t think it will last.

My six penny worth is why is the entire world at such a low borrowing point. It is a stimulant....A tiny deposit is all that is needed, but the returns on a Savers deposit has been forced down, so the Banks can uplift their profits, by robbing Peter to pay Paul.......and there are 14 or more Pauls who are now mortgaged...it is called a Mort-gage meaning "death grip".....in ancient terms, because they have you by the short and curly grip to ensure the debt is repaid, sometime in the future. If not paid, then they get to keep your purchase....to ensure people Borrow to extremes, the Banks lend to almost anyone with a proven history...as long as they win....they do not care a jot, if you lose. It is a numbers game....the loser is now the Saver. Until they do not. They either die, or take their cash elsewhere....same difference...the money is dispersed.
The "Mug" is the ones who pay for someone else's debt.

ORR someone who stimulates the economy, by ensuring muggins keep borrowing.

So what should FHBs do then?

If FHB are in a position where they can buy a house without stretching their finances to the limit and have a bit of a buffer cashflow wise, start looking for a house now so that you know the market well, come winter. Winter + upcoming election and possibly some fallout form Covid-19 (too early to tell) will give you much more choice than now and if you look at enough houses you will be able to buy well.
If you have to stretch yourself to the limit to buy a house, hold off and keep saving for a bigger deposit.
Good luck

Suddenly the voice of reason....

What's your problem? On 3 different posts you put words in my mouth that I predict the market to go "gangbusters" which are your words, when I simply stated that the auction numbers on this article are very strong, which they are. If you infer from that, that the market is going to go up in the future, that's your prediction not mine

Thanks for the reply Yvil. You're absolutely right, there's no harm in building up a bigger deposit. During Winter last year, I did notice properties in the area I was looking / researching were taking longer to sell, and were also mostly selling under CV (unless they were top end ones). Please note I'm not 'trying to time the market', but rather digest how much of an influence seasons have on property prices.

Leading Aussie economist Chris Joye is predicting a strong probability that house prices could fall 30% in Australia if China goes into recession.

That would be devasating.

Impossible, we've been told over and over in the last 20 years that such a thing could never happen in Australia.
Australia and NZ are different

*diffrunt

See my comment below

"By Michael Yardney

Both Sydney and Melbourne once again delivered boom time auction clearance rates. Despite considerably more properties being put up for sale by auction – in fact a Super Saturday in Melbourne- auction clearance rates improved as the following graphic clearly shows. ​"

https://propertyupdate.com.au/this-weekends-auction-results-what-happene...

With a death rate that is likely lower than the common flu I don't get the panic.

Do people realize that waters mains are unlikely to be cut off due to a pandemic even if we all get it?

Yes unlikely mains water will get cut off but not an impossibility. You would be pretty happy right now to be in a totally off grid house. Food and supplies go first and they go pretty fast given the right conditions. Your water will keep flowing as long as there is also no power disruption and the treatment plants keep operating and that does take people. Pretty much everything keeps operating in a "Normal society" under "Normal conditions" but the society as we know it actually has a pretty thin veneer. Personally I don't think it would take much of a crisis in a modern world for it to be suddenly every man for himself. It is already every man for himself in certain areas of life even right now.

Wrong the death rate is far higher than the common flu. Your obviously doing zero independent research on this. The death rate also goes ballistic the second the hospitals are overwhelmed with patients that need intensive care.It has just been released that the UK with over 60 million people has only 28 beds in the whole country that can handle this at the worst level. New Zealand hospitals cannot cope on a normal flu season and we are just not set-up for this at all so if the case numbers start climbing even into the 100's we are stuffed and you will be forced to stay at home and self treat it. The numbers dying will go through the roof.

The panic is coming from the Asian community in case you have not watched the supermarket videos. Perhaps you need to ask yourself if they know more than you do. Perhaps speaking to relatives affected in China that are now possibly starving to death that have not even got the virus due to the total lockdown and isolation could be one reason. Toilet paper and all the large bags of rice are gone at the supermarket.

"Toilet paper and all the large bags of rice are gone" lol what a combination!

If you have cash then I think there will be good opportunities in the coming weeks to buy stock and/or property. Of course you'll have to buy when everyone else is selling or standing pat, so not an easy thing to do...

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