June listings on Realestate.co.nz were up 20% compared to June last year while asking prices were sliding

June listings on Realestate.co.nz were up 20% compared to June last year while asking prices were sliding

A surge of new listings on the residential property market and declining asking prices in June created buyer's markets in Auckland, Nelson & Bays, Canterbury and Central Otago/Lakes, according to property sales website Realestate.co.nz.

The website's sales figures suggest the residential property market recovered quite quickly from the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.

In March, which is traditionally the busiest month of the year for the residential property market, Realestate.co.nz received 10,105 new listings, with the Level 4 lockdown restrictions only coming into effect towards the end of that month.

However, as the Level 4 restrictions started to bite properly in April, new listings dropped away to 2962, before recovering strongly to 8324 in May and 9033 in June.

That was up 19.7% compared to June last year and was the highest number of new listings received in the month of June since the height of the last property boom, in June 2016.

The surge in new listings was even stronger in Auckland where 3559 new listings were received in June which was up 38.9% on June last year.

Around the country new listings were up compared to June last year in 15 districts and down in four (see chart below).

That pushed inventory levels up to a point that it created buyers' markets in Auckland, Nelson & Bay's, Canterbury and Central Otago/Lakes.

"Inventory data indicates the turnover in the market," Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Taylor said.

"When inventory is higher than the 13 year, long term average, it tells us that there is more stock available than people buying property and this signals a buyer's market (see chart below for the regional trends).

"This is the first time many of these regions have experienced a buyer's market in several years," she said.

Taylor said a slowdown in sales was typically good news for buyers and in Auckland, Nelson & Bays, Canterbury and Central Otago/Lakes, could signal a move away from the competitive, multi-offer sales that often been evident in recent years.

"This might be a good time for potential buyers in these regions to start seriously looking," she said.

However, it's not just the rush of new listings that is tipping the market in favour of buyers, with asking prices also in decline.

The average asking price of properties listed on Realestate.co.nz peaked at $874,886 in April, then dropped to $729,002 in May and $715,239 in June, a decline of $159,647 (-18.2%) in two months.

In the Auckland market the average asking price peaked at $1,002,123 in February and had dropped back to $928,969 in June, a decline of $73,154 (-7.3%) in three months.

Lower average asking prices were evident throughout the country, with prices being below, and in several cases substantially below previous highs in all regions except Coromandel, where a record high of $830,683 was set in June.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

146 Comments

Notice how realestate.co is first out of the blocks grabbing the headline before their nemesis trademe I suspect. I would take the implications in this article with a pinch of salt. How many of the provinces are below/way below their LTA

Number of weeks to sell is a product of buyer demand and the numbers being listed. When this number is falling it's usually a signal of a sellers market pr equilibrium. It's not all about Auckland, Wellington on 11 weeks usually 16, could be a worry for buyers there

That's inventory not weeks to sell, but yes they have fewer houses in stock than normal.

Spin, spin, spin.

https://tinyurl.com/ydz4j8gz

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Yawn, stats based on asking prices are nothing but noise. Its the price the seller gets (or gets passed in at) that matters.

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It shows the shift in the distribution of properties listed, however.
Might be a flood of rental sh*tboxes coming onto the market.

Thats the other problem, it doesn't show the shift. I suspect it could indeed be a flood of low quality listings, but thats just a big fat assumption. Then again it could just be RE agents putting low nominal prices into the backend for auction/tender listings to get them to show up in search results of people looking in lower brackets to try to fuel a bidding war.

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A fair point.
However, although as slimey as RE agents are, they cannot misrepresent price expectations of the seller. So, I'm less inclined to think that this is driven by dodgy price guidance.

But they can load properties into databases with lower prices so the auction listings which don't state a price come up for people with lower budgets. Saw it all the time when we were looking, properties that were clearly iut of our price range, million dollar RVs in <$800k searches.

I dunno about that. That may be algorithmic for the website.
If the RE agent gamed the hidden price to show up in a significantly lower price bracket, that would still be considered misrepresentation.

Order the search by price and you get a clear idea of price estimate by comparing with those above and below. Of course that doesnt work when most are undisclosed.

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"However, although as slimey as RE agents are, they cannot misrepresent price expectations of the seller."

My experience suggests otherwise.

"Then again it could just be RE agents putting low nominal prices into the backend for auction/tender listings to get them to show up in search results"

Sometimes buying a property is much harder than you'd expect, a buyers' market is a positive if it stops some of the price games.

Good point, Pragmatist. When I was looking on the trademe, I found that they do that a lot. They put 800K houses under 700K search results which is super annoying.

I assume you want an extra zero in there, but yes. Part of that is TM, which automatically pads the brackets a little -- e.g. if the "hidden" price is 749k it comes up on your up to 700k search. But then the agents play the same game and you're 100k out.

haha yes, thanks for pointing out. Corrected.

That could be seen as misleading information if homes are deliberately placed in the wrong price bracket...... have to say when we were looking this happened on so many properties that we didn’t bother inputting the price details... just checked new listings in our search area everyday.

Oh it is, IMO. But not (quite) provably so. I even remember reading a case (REINZ tribunal or wherever complaints go) about it where the agent wriggled out.

It is provable.

You input a property into the TradeMe search engine with wide price range parameters and narrow it down until you can *prove* where it's listed.

Totally provable.

I've always found this practice highly misleading and I question whether it's a breach of the Real Estate Agents Act 2008.

"Accurate price range":
"You must:
- carefully check all the marketing and advertising information in printed and digital media to ensure any reference made to a price or range is true and accurate.."

https://www.rea.govt.nz/real-estate-professionals/listing-a-property/mar...

TradeMe is digital media.
And the agent is making a reference to price or, if you want to be cute, a range.

Nymad.."Might be a flood of rental sh*tboxes coming onto the market."

I think you meant a flood of quality Air BnB's in Clendon...

Its what our parents called their first home.

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Bought at age 23, on a single postman's salary

Now purchased by a couple of Accountants in their mid-30's who saved 10 years just for the deposit.

So comparable.

You don't know how good you've got it. That postman slaved away and only went to the pub a couple of times a week!

They now call them investment vehicles.

Also Asking price in Buyers market is higher than the actual sale price as in Sellers market, seller gets the asking but in buyers market is negotiated.

All this is just lot of noise between between those who believes that house price will fall and those believing that house price never falls despite once in a life time panademic / situation which has put a fullstop to the entire world for now.

To Remember that world is still in the middle of panademic (Numbers are rising fast) and we are not out of it though NZ has overcome to a certain extend Health Crisis but Economy Crisis has not yet started.

Property news very gloomy.
This will brighten-up many posters' day.

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Man_yells_at_cloud.jpg

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FHB been looking for a while in AK fringe, early $1m range. I’ve noticed things have changed a lot.

In summer all properties were auction. And they all sold at auction for much higher than cv. There were tonnes of people at viewings and bidders at auction. (We missed out on a few.) Very much a FOMO environment.

Now, many more listed as PBN some even with a price straight away. Many are passing in at auction. Then they take weeks, even months, to sell at PBN or with an asking price.

Seeing lots of properties hanging around on trademe. Some on there for months. Some dropping their asking price significantly and yet still not selling. Much less people at viewings. My friend is interested in a property, apparently 0 people have turned up to the open homes the last two weeks.

Its a welcoming change. Nice to feel that we can take our time to find the right property for us, and not feel a sense of urgency about it. Also nice to see a price on there, and not to have to waste $1K each property on due diligence for auctions.

I would say sellers expectations are still pretty high, hence why properties are taking longer to sell/passing in. Buyers simply won’t match it anymore.

Main reason for this change, I believe, is the uncertainty in the job market. I know 10 people close to me who have been made redundant recently. Most people I know are concerned about it. And we’re in our early 30s, well into our career paths.

Personally I don’t want prices to drop much. I have friends who have bought way overpriced units/small houses over the last couple of years, saved so hard, and would be devastating to see them lose their deposit value.

I hope property prices just stay the same for a long time. Give my generation a chance to catch up and finally buy a home.

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Be patient. This is a bubble popping which always means a crash in prices, never has a bubble ended with prices staying ‘level’. And it’s never ‘different this time’.

Agree, patience is key here. I inquired on 4 different propertie, 4 different agents, all auctions, what was the sellers reserve price. Only one gave me a figure which was 20% over CV, but the rest just made excuses why they could not give me this information. Until the sellers real intention is carried through to the potential buyer without all the fluff from the RE agents then the market's price correction will take some time.

Hopefully it works out for you. However I have read about rough do ups amongst others, still commanding lots of buyer demand and selling like hotcakes in Auckland for mega money

Did you read about this occurrence in the Herald ? Please add links.

Seek and you will find F(H)B

Thats a job site mate.

So be it and it's a comment.

Real estate agent newsletters?

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Looks like we just stepped off the cliff? How big is the fall? Might be a small ditch, with crazy fundamentals though, possibly a crippling fall...

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That is a key word "fundamentals". Prices have been disconnected from domestic market for some time. Foreign laundering, printing, bad bank lending practice, tax offset, and mass tourism and immigration have all created this bubble. If you work and pay tax in NZ while stuck in the rental trap, vote to continue blocking external factors, and look to the land tax.

Specuvestors....gonna be a very interesting election. With Nats looking more and more a finger puppet of the CCP, most I talk to including several bankers, all expect the current Govt to be returned.

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What has triggered the last couple of property market 'adjustments' across the globe? Not the property market per se, but the stock market.
This time we have not only an artificially levitated stock market but a pandemic on the go as well.
An apt comment from Australia this morning:

"Let's be sensible here. There is zero chance of rising private credit over the remainder of 2020. The economic damage is too severe. The psychology is too damaged. The ongoing blows from the virus are too persistent.
Ahead are further house prices falls that will by September punch a new hole in household confidence and begin to sink consumption, even before we get to the prospect of any rational (recalibration) for stocks."

Listings well up solely because playing catch up for b all in May. Not “buyers” market unless more buyers actually buying. Difference, again, between potential demand and proven demand

Tend to agree. Comparing listing performance in the winter months is always fraught. The real test will be when the season opens in Spetember/October.

Same old same old.
Still too early really to know.

I agree. To my mind, the only truly significant information we have so far is the May REINZ stats, particularly the HPI. That definitely showed a (fairly small) drop in the market but we need another couple of months to declare that the market is in a downward slide.

FHBs who have resisted temptation until now should pat themselves on the back and keep their powder dry for at least a little longer.

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Don't worry, i'm going to list my property for $1 billion and watch what happens to the asking prices.

Please try it and report back. I'm curious what checks they put on these things!

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Today is turn of negative news......

Tomorrow again will be positive ...........

Why doing timepass when actually the reality is that with world comming to a halt along with many sectors like Travel and Tourism, Hospitality, International Education, Immigration which are completely dead what does one expect.....It has to get worse before getting better particularly in NZ which depends on Tourism, International Students and migrants as without it No Rock Star Economy.

One has to and should wait till September/October when many subsidies by government ends not only in NZ but world over to know the actual damage by Corona virus and also China being pushed in a corner by many countries in the world is bound to react with physical, biological,cyber and economical war which may further aggravate the situation.

Also will know how much and till when government is ready to print money.

Important data in current situation is unemployment - predicted in NZ to be below 10% in future but if it goes above 10% will be CATASTROPHE and every additional percentage above 10% will be MAYHEM and one does not have to be an expert or economist to predict that. So Wait and Watch.

I have been tracking listing data across the last 4 months of this pandemic/situation. Given all the uncertainty, job losses and abnormal market activity, I take the information in this article as borderline useless. Auckland listings have generally declined in the last 4 months, noting the start of covid was the end of what was a pretty good summer in terms of selling/pricing. Its lazy journalism to simply compare year on year data, particularly in a situation like this. The most telling stat for me was that in March, Auckland city house listings (excluding apartments, land and townhouses etc) dropped 10%. They are down 14% through this 4 month period. So no wonder those people in the market are having to pay overs with a 14% decline in stock.

I would suggest you have your ideas backwards. The most relevant stats are year on year changes, even in light of the pandemic, when trying to decide how things are panning out. This is because the real estate market is highly seasonal and very dependent on many other factors (unemployment, lending etc) which are all generally looked at year on year. That's not "lazy journalism", that's solid statistical methodology.

This is all directionally consistent with the behavior one would expect from an economic backdrop never really seen in anyone's lifetime. Given the extent to which housing has been financialized, you could even say that things look quite orderly. For now anyway.

Similar to what's happening around the world especially in those countries that were propped up be foreign buyers. Take our Australian neighbors for example where prices are falling due to the disruption cause by the coronavirus. The surprising thing is that most Ozzys would like to see a full foreign buyers ban since they know their in a false economy created by decades of dependency on selling out to overseas investors.

Take a look at the comments in this recent article. News au: Housing market: ANU report reveals grim sign for house prices. https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/housing-marke...

I keep records of house/townhouse RE NZ listings totals, weekly, for Auckland
The total for 12.5.19 was 7852
For 16.5.20 it was 5621
So, at that point this year, it was down 28% down on 2019

On July 3rd 2019 it was 6283
On July 1st 2020 it is 5819.
That is 7.3% lower.

Another way RE NZ could present figures (but does not) is to state new listings for period March 1st to June 30th for 2019 and compare to 2020.

Problem is that June is a reaction to shutdown, ie catch up
Also, total listings is a function of how many are selling at what rate. That is, if sale rate is declining, then total listing will of course rise due to accumulation of listings not sold.
Listing rate per day in Hibiscus Coast for last 4-5 weeks has been v similar to 2019, at about 4.3 per day.
It should really be a lot higher , given that we would reasonably expect those who could not get OTM in May and April to sell now, if they are going to.
Interesting to see what Barfoots figs for June are.
I suspect they will be close to or better than 2019 June figs due to catch up, and this will be seen totally differently by folk, depending on how deeply they look

Newshub also reporting

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/07/buyer-s-market-property-lis...

BUT Aunty Herald ignores the news - not that it matters.

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I think this data finally shows a true shift towards an upcoming softer market with weaker prices coming.

Edit; I just read the full property report, Greg left out the info that:
1) asking prices are still 10.4% higher than in the same month last year
2) the housing stock is still 11.7% lower in NZ and 10.4% lower in Auckland than in the same month last year.
Given these 2 new sets of data, I reserve my first opinion until more negative data shows up

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Holding you close in our thoughts and hoping you are doing OK.

Don't understand your comment? I'm great thanks, how about you?

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I'm good too thankyou. I am always here for you if you need to talk.

Thanks for the laugh.

Oh I see, your comment was sarcastic and cynical. Why don't you grow up and comment on what you believe in instead of trying to mock others

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Lol. The irony....

The image for the article is capable of two explanations. It shows a fustercluck in progress: the RSJ across the tractor unit's turntable has clearly buckled, to the consternation of the assembled multitude. The house has broken its back, and its drooping corners are dragging in the mud. Explanations:

  1. It's a visual parable of the housing market's future, of KiwiBuild, of the general incompetence constantly on display (Border 'controls'), of the design failures that have characterised Pike River and the CTV building.
  2. It's a hopeful sign - recycling an older but still serviceable/repairable housing unit for an aspiring FHB.

No doubt commenters can add their own interpretations.

All the components related to emotion are very relevant Waymad. They always are in these kind of dumbass miracle economic stories in the West. Those are the stories being told around the water cooler and crafted as stimuli through channels such as Granny Herald.

It's an amazing picture that makes readers go "OMG" and read the article. Some will conclude from the photo that the housing market is broken and is going to crash about 2000%

-2,000% would likely mark the end of leg one, but corrections are usually at least two legs down implying a final price of about -4,000%.

This is not the Herald. I think most people here are immune to cheap clickbait tactics, and the picture is more of a tongue in cheek illustration.

I think most people here are immune to cheap clickbait tactics

You should read the clickbait if you want insight in to how people are thinking.

Yes, the imagery is powerful alright. The truck and trailer stuck in the mud with the buckled RSJ is symbolic of the Govt. handling of the housing crisis and the 'old' house is our housing stock and the houses broken back is symbolic of FHB housing dreams. And don't forget the number eight wire and bailing twine. The NZ 2020 dream.

Point 2, it ain't.

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None of this is real. The current situation is being artificially propped up by Jacindas' support payments. When this support no longer exists reality will kick in and the real market will let itself be known. If I was a FHB I would do a good deal on a 6 to 12 month rental (there are some very desperate rentiers around). I would then hang fire and wait until at least January next year. By then we should have a bit more of an understanding of what reality is going to look like. Good luck, I hope your time is about to come. We need to let fairness back into NZ. This is why people voted Labour who did absolutely nothing to level the playing field. It's a shame that fellow humans ignored the plight of poorer people and it actually took a deadly virus to provide fairness?

Covid-19 is a truth serum, it seems to have revealed the true face of people, governments and markets all over the world. Mind you, it takes a long time to dispel the illusions, but at least their nature is now crystal clear.
The pandemic turned everything into its own caricature.

Would you prefer to vote National and let them get rid of the Foreign Buyers Ban and the strengthened Anti Money Laundering regulations that Labour brought in? How is that fair to citizens of NZ to let National sell us out again?

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National are much worse. There is no good option.

Then your comment about doing nothing to level the playing field is false. Introducing the FBB, extending the bright line test, improving AMLs, are all policies that have helped to level the playing field. Is there more that could be done? Of course, but lets not pretend this government isn't doing something. Anyone with young children would be mad to vote the blues back in knowing that they are openly admitting to rolling back the FBB and god knows what else to support ever increasing house prices that are so disconnected from NZ wages.

Capital gains tax?

Yeah that was a fail but thats what happens when you have to play nice with NZ First.

Perfect is the enemy of good.
At least we have the 5 year bright line rule now.

Its about time methinks. As Mum and Dad landlords we'll lose big time, but not too worried about that. A price worth paying if it makes the John Key Money Laundry less attractive to our overseas friends.

So FB by that do you agree that Labour have done something to benefit NZ citizens and residents by reducing foreign buyers and corruption in the property market. I agree with you that they could do a lot more, such as introducing a Empty Homes Tax that would further target Overseas Investors and Money Launders that have used NZ to park their money. At least that could help collect a lot of revenue that's vitally needed with current virus events.

get rid of the Foreign Buyers Ban and the strengthened Anti Money Laundering regulations

Smoke and mirror stuff

I agree and those are a couple of the main reasons that Labour is likely to get my party vote. And I've never voted for them before!
Was even thinking of the Greens, never voted for them before either, but don't like the Wealth Tax. It's a shame they dropped CGT.

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But.... all those returning kiwis! And the housing shortage! And the V shaped recovery! And all the cashed up FHB's waiting on the sidelines, ready to pounce! And the property clock!
What is happening????

What is happening?

Sharesies?

For 15/07 - 29/07 arrival/departure data. Net gain of 1154 NZ passport holders. Net loss of 3719 foreign passport holders. Overall net loss of 2565. Assuming there is very little pure tourism travel in these stats.
What does it mean for the property market? One factor is the number of houses under construction in Auckland. The number of multi townhouses infill developments (on previously single dwelling sections) along my 20km route to work is incredible. How long can these small-time developers (or their funders) wait for a sale once the houses are completed.

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More wage subsidies down the drain. This needs to stop now. Stop wasting our money just to prop the housing market up. The tax money from young workers is indirectly going to rich boomer landlords. The youth are always being kept down. Enough is enough. Let the reset begin.

Dont disagree. Vote accordingly.

Was Checking Maukau - Howick, Pakuranga and near about area and houses that are being sold in Auction are going at premium / decent price not reflecting fall as such for now.

May be sentiments will catch up and will see meaningfull fall after few months.

"that are being sold" - More and more are passed in as buyers asking price is too high.

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Air BnB is dead. The exiting CEO said as much. Yes debt is cheap, but it still needs servicing income. That is your job, tenants job, or short term rental.

Tourism highlights daily rental is dead, people are loosing jobs left and right, and wage and business subsidy are short term. Picking this will effect the mid to higher end more, which will push everything else down as well.

Popcorn.

Yep sure is popcorn time. Stuff article: Queenstown property market flooded with rentals, big drop in values likely. "The number of Queenstown rental property listings on TradeMe jumped about 80 per cent from February to March."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/121132672/queenstown-proper...

I didnt have to wait to get a ferg burger when I was there last week. Blood on the streets is where Q town is headed.

That's definitely a sign of the apocalypse for Qtown.

Time to invest a few hundred million dollars into a shovel-ready infrastructure project there!

To be fair, the burger was good, but Im glad i never stood in a queue for half an hour for one.

Hoping skiing is on special too

What are the tourism attractions looking like for customers - quiet? Would not like to be any of the new ones that opened there in the last couple years. Big rents when you've got no customers.

No sign of activity and prices sliding in Hawke's Bay. I sold late last year and now feeling the FOMO. Was going to wait a year to see what happens but it looks like there's a risk I could get priced out of re-entering the market. An agent today who's been in it for a long time said Covid has had no affect on property or business in Hawke's Bay. Looks like this area could be in its own bubble.

Ask him about travel agents, or tourism. I bet they tell a different story.

The agent was a woman who delighted in telling me I had made a terrible mistake and why did I think it was a good time to leave the market? I said I read a wide range of macro economic commentary from all over the world and could see a storm coming. She just said Tremains are having a big lunch tomorrow to celebrate all the houses they've been selling in Havelock and Hastings. La de da.

Sorry to hear that story

Housework,
An important point here is that the first house is a home and that is long term.
As long as one can service the mortgage, short or even medium term fluctuations in the market are irrelevant. It remains a home with the social and financial securities, and intrinsic value that goes with it.

You must be really well off if losing ~$200k from your net worth makes no difference to you...

You must be really well off if losing ~$200k from your net worth makes no difference to you.

Given that NZers savings is in their home, houses are not just a place to live. They're a financial instrument.

JC
Agreed that a home - as I have posted many times - provides financial security among other things.
However a home is not an asset one buys and sells as one does with say shares.
As I have also posted, I purchased a rental just before the GFC, saw the RV drop in value by 10%, continued to receive the same rent, and sold it in 2016 for a tidy capital gain.
Just like the KiwiSaver Growth Fund, property whether a home or rental is about longer term and short term volatility is irrelevant provided one can service the mortgage.
As a property owner, I have experienced three or four downturns, the GFC the latest.

Your own home is not an asset, it’s a liability. It doesn’t provide positive cash flow.

https://www.richdad.com/is-a-house-an-asset

Id say, as a country, that instrument sounds rather like a 6 year old with their first recorder.

Sluggy
To who and what comment do you refer???

P8 sluggish is alluding to the remark that a home is a financial instrument and he has made a somewhat lame comparison to a badly played musical instrument. Though it was rather humourous

Sluggish. Ouch. I resemble that comment.
My moniker actually refers to a car I owned affectionately referred to as the slug.

Jester
Trying to time any market - especially the bottom of the market in volatile times - is contrary to basic investment principles.
The post by Han seemingly illustrates this.

Erm isn't trying to "time the market" the foundation of *all* investment, no matter whether stocks, shares, or houses? If it makes no difference why are agents always telling us "Now is the time to buy/sell!"

Han
I agree re HB.
I am looking at a rental as an option but no indications as yet of a slide - but possibly early days.
A couple of drivers are
- housing shortage, you will be aware of the number of motels (Marineland, Bluewater, Fern etc) that are full of homeless - I heard up to 20% of motels have at least some homeless, and
- the local economy is doing reasonably well; some small parts of the economy such as cruise ships, international tourists and foreign students are hit but these are really minor parts of the economy whereas horticulture and forestry are going well judging by Napier Port. Pastoral farming is over the drought albeit too late for the spring flush. Domestic tourism likely to be up as was seen by the number of camper vans after the lockdown.

Where I live there is a cute little 7 unit motel near the beach. It was a really boutique but affordable family motel, always popular and immaculately clean and tidy. Each room is a cottage not a semi detached adjoining unit. Well kept gardens and just a tucked away lovely spot. Now it is full of social housing transitional folk. I knew a cleaner who worked there. She's left and other cleaners have left as it's become so disgusting, full of feral individuals with children running around berserk swearing all day long. It's a motel in a suburban area which can't even keep cleaners after a global pandemic. Go figure.

Meanwhile a property manager I know said they thought they'd give a few motel tenants a crack at private housing but said after looking into their background it was just no way. Too many issues, the criminality, dishonesty... she said they gave up trying to place them in private rentals and said there's a reason they all stay in motels.

What happens when all the motels are full with beneficiaries

Convert now unwanted commercial property into motels?

More easing and Govt support will kick in if necessary in September/October.

Yes I think so too and they'll indicate that up front during their shameless electioneering.

Many on this forum has rightly said that real impact of recession should be felt towards end of year, near around September.

May start from July or August but will be visible on the street in September or October Onwards.

Government subsidies helped for now and control of corona virus has created a false narrative nit realising that have contrilled Health crisis and Not Economy crisis, which has nit yer started in real sense.

Reality setting in around about September 20th is my prediction.

Australia House Prices Fall for Second Month as Shutdowns Bite

["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-01/australia-house-price..."]

Expect Auckland June sales to be only about 10% lower than in June 2019.
Easy calculation
March-May sales were 27% lower than in 2019
A lot of those sales will go through in June instead.
However, that is end of good news.
Take a look at what happened 2007 - 2010 (GFC)
Sales fell 37%. That is AT LEAST what we can expect.
Especially when defaults and corporates start not paying their debts and lenders tighten up
Financial crisis not started yet. Likelier once election out of the way, here and in USA.
Crash markets in October and January increasingly probable.

By the way, to those who think sales are not an issue or of any importance.
Sales = confident buyers and able to afford.
So, a good measure fo confidence of market and its health.
2013 Auckland sales were 30,803
2019 it was 22,615 or - 26% (in 2009 it was 22,835)
So, despite lower interest rates every year and despite massive increase in bank lending (due to higher prices) and despite highest immigration for a generation from 2012-17, sales FELL
That is not a healthy market.

Mike
Serious question which you haven’t answered for me.
Why is the number of sales - rather than price and price movement - so important to you.
For 99% of the population price is the important factor. The other 1% being REA.
As to the state of the market for the 99% of people; You can have a falling market with high turnover as owners bale out, and the exact opposite number of sales in a rising number as buyers clamber to get in.
So seriously, please explain why number of sales rather than price movements should be an indicator we should be hanging on to.

Hi printer,

my interest is basically egalitarian and personal rather than professional (as a REA.)
It is this, number of sales declining 27% 2013-19 shows that fewer people can afford to buy.
Also, those that are buying are more often investors and that means more rents going to people who are not in the bottom 75% of the income distribution.
Hence, inequality worsens.
As real incomes increase considerably less than house prices, more and more young people are forced to rent for longer.
Again, as incomes do not advance as fast for those in the bottom half of the pop as in the top 20%, inequality worsens further.
This weakens consumer demand and that deficit has to be made up by selling people debt
This is an exponential trend since 1975 roughly, and not just in NZ.
Debt benefits the lenders most and the landlords who rent out things they buy on leverage. leverage is again a tool available to him that hath.
Overall it sucks.

Would like to see more data on vendor intentions.... upsizing, downsizing, relocating, emigrating/returning to another country. Really would not be difficult to collate as the agents have this information already.

"evacuating"

FWIW I can share my intentions as a vendor of three properties since June... one is own home, downsizing, and the other two are liquidating while the market's still ok.

Make of that what you will.

On 19 September, JA will reclaim her spot and that's when the fun and games begin..

May be support will be needed only to Travel and Hospitality and related industry. Though some hotels got a lifeline (Quarantine booking helped in Auckland and few othr places) but Activity providers will be hard hit along with retailers who depends onlyon tourist - International (Again few got a chunk from 400 million kept aside by government like bunjee jumping in Queenstown and somein Rotorua). Not to forget Travel Agents but those subsidy if any to be targeted to those registered and with track record to prove futuresustainibilit.

South island depends more on international tourist so will be hit big time.

Who's taking bets on the wage subsidy/COVID payment being extended?

I doubt the subsidy would be extended unless there are further lockdowns.

I could however see it being replaced by a scheme where companies could request interim assistance for wages if they can prove their cashflow is only temporarily effected, or something like that.

Now that Australia is beefing up its set of toys, they will put some pressures on NZ to do the same. So whatever in the piggy bank will be spread quite thinly..
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-30/australia-unveils-10-year-defence...

Not at all surprised by the increase in listings for Akld. For sale signs are popping up all over the place.

Just a quick comment on my neighbourhood in Parklands, Napier, where the market is going gangbusters. Properties are being snapped up fast and prices are getting silly - that is sillier than they were.

The last property to sell just around the corner sold before the agent even put the 'for sale' board up.

A couple of days ago we received a flyer in the letterbox from an agent who sold another property just around the corner - and it went for more than I expected. The agent claimed to have a list of genuine buyers ready to buy in this area and were we interested in selling blah blah. You never know with this lot if they are for real or otherwise....

....and then today I see a neighbour in our street has put their property on the market. Or at least I assume they have because we had a photographer visit this morning along with a bunch of well-dressed folks stop by - who I assume were agents checking it out. No listing on TradeMe or RealEstate.co just yet but already we have had 3 different agents bring 3 different sets of people through. It's crazy.

We're sitting here in or front room watching the show. And it's even more crazy when you consider that Napier is, in my mind, getting quite expensive. There were some great deals to be had until mid-2017 but it's gone bonkers since then. This particular area has been going up 15%+ per year for some years. Crazy.

Anyway, that's this afternoon's real estate report from the front lines in suburban Napier.

Han also mentioned that Hawkes Bay was doing well, so I checked the latest REINZ figures and they also show Hawkes Bay to be one of the strongest performing real estate markets. Why do you think that is? I've spent a bit of time in the area over the years and while it's a nice enough place I don't know why the market there should be out performing the rest of the country. Is there a particular industry that is doing well perhaps? Surely not tourism!

Cashed up Jaffas pulling cash out of term deposit and spending large in Napier. Is Napier the new Tauranga...?

We are the proverbial JAFAs, having moved here from Auckland in early 2017. Looked at Tauranga but as nice as it is, we felt it was just a bit too much like a mini-Auckland - bad traffic etc. Napier doesn't have traffic issues.

As for why the marking here is booming, honestly, I just don't know. I gather that in terms of new or near new properties, Napier is still around 100K less than Tauranga i.e. comparing a similar sized house on a similar sized section. Maybe that has something to do with it, but then maybe it doesn't. Pure speculation on my part. And to be clear, I am only commenting on what is happening in this particular suburb. I don't tend to follow what is happening elsewhere in the city so closely.

If our neighbour's house is still on the market come the weekend and an open home is held, I'll go along and talk to the agent and report back what they say about who the buyers in the current market are.

Hawkes Bay has limited listings in many suburbs.
Lots of retired, semi retired, & Aucklanders buying in good suburbs, independent of borrowing needs, and with limited choice of listings. Prices still driven upwards.
Economy still ticking along with primary industries unaffected by lockdown.

Behavioural economics would offer a much more simple explanation. NZ has had a huge housing bubble. Auckland led the bubble and when Auckland reached the limits of its velocity, the market expanded outwards (as they typically do), first to areas commutable and nearish Auckland, then to other cities, then you get people drinking the koolaid and touting Palmy North as the place to get rich. At some point late in the game, the bubble had expanded to Hawkes Bay. Hawkes Bay is a lovely spot, but neither its average salary or its economic prospects in the oncoming economic downturn warrant a continued hot housing market, so in all likelihood it will cool over the next few years. It wasn't massively overpriced like some areas, so if the market does cool, a correction might not be as dramatic as some other areas IMO. I would guess the real carnage, if it occurs, will be some areas in Auckland (particularly apartments) and Queenstown.

Been wondering what's driving demand here too. Food growing region. The trades are still really busy. People are still building and renovating. As for Aucklanders moving here, in two years I haven't met any. It seems to be Hawke's Bay people on the make. If you're a teacher, in health, a tradie or a first responder, it's business as usual. How the design/creative services are going I don't know but I suspect slower. Retail seems to be quiet. Bought my daughter a hoodie at a surf shop last week and the shop owner nearly hugged me.

I lived in the Bay, a lovely spot overall if you avoid certain areas. It does have a gang problem like many places. However very little work. A mate of mine thinks regional towns still face an uplift from people moving from Auckland even if they're made redundant. He thinks some will take early retirement and cash up by moving to the sticks. Not that HB is totally in the sticks.

Email from Ray white Agents to all in their mailing list :

Subject : Intense buyer interest drives June market

Trade Me Property site engagement figures support strong buyer interest. These signs of are more than just anecdotal. Trade Me Property is seeing a stark contrast between last June’s buyer engagement on site and this year’s, with email enquiries and Watchlist adds, a key sign of buyer interest, well up.

Email enquiries to agents and private sellers, over a two-week period from 25 May to 8 June 2020, compared with 2019 at the same time, were up, close to 140% up in Auckland.

In Auckland, all districts were up between 100 and 200% in buyer email enquiries.

Over the same period, (25 May to 8 June 2020 vs 2019) Trade Me Property Watchlist Adds have risen this year with up 44% in Auckland.

“Buyers are still there… and are revealing themselves to be more confident,” says economist Mr Tony Alexander, after seeing share markets rally and job numbers go up again.

Buyer interest likely to last in coming months, will all this buyer intention remain? The market would normally be quieter by late June going into wintry July and August, but given the current level of buyer interest and the fact that people will not be flying off to sunny climes overseas, the activity is likely to continue.

To know the value of your property in today’s market please contact me today:

That is hilarious and one to keep. Will get more funny as the bubble crashes and Ray W is making agents redundant.. even the ones comparing the volume of email inquiries YoY

"Trade Me Property is seeing a stark contrast between last June’s buyer engagement on site and this year’s, with email enquiries and Watchlist adds, a key sign of buyer interest, well up."

Could it be a "key sign" that buyers are "interested" in seeing how far they can knock prices down because the crash is coming and they know sellers are desperate to get out before it happens? Hmm.

that's me. been watching a few with interest and put them on watch list. one is dropped a couple of times to now be priced 8% below cv.
another got passed in at auction, went fixed price and now is on deadline sale.
have added more and more as days go by, moreso on those i have no interest in but to get a guide for where things are heading.
none of the dozen or so on my watchlist from the past month in auckland have sold.