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Barfoot & Thompson sold more homes in June than it did in June last year as Auckland property market recovers from lockdown

Barfoot & Thompson sold more homes in June than it did in June last year as Auckland property market recovers from lockdown

Barfoot & Thompson had a reasonably buoyant sales month in June, selling 820 residential properties which was up 4.3% on June last year.

At the same time selling prices were relatively stable, with the average selling price edging up to $953,417 in June from $947,707 in May, although it was still below the peak of $993,528 set in March.

The median selling price was $910,000 in June, down slightly from $914,000 in May and the peak of $925,000 in March.

Barfoots also received a surge of 1582 new listings in June which was up by 56.3% compared to June last year.

That helped restore the agency's stock levels (the total number of properties it has available for sale) to 4001 at the end of June, up marginally from the 4085 properties it had available for sale at the end of June last year.

The figures suggest Auckland's residential property market has now fully recovered from the effects of the lockdown conditions that were evident in April and May.

"It was a remarkably solid month's trading with no signs of market fragility," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.

He described the month's results as "business as usual."

"What contributed to the robustness of the market in June was solid new listings at 1582, 56.3% higher than in the same month last year, an influx of first home buyers and undoubtedly some catch up business from the slow sales in May."

However, Thompson also warned that there was still uncertainty about future market performance.

"It is far too early to see this result as an indicator that the property market will defy forecasts and ride out the COVID-19 pandemic unaffected," he said.

The interactive chart below tracks Barfoot's selling prices, sales volumes and new listings.

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Barfoot Auckland

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90 Comments

Every other market including car sales , and white good sales are in a sorry state .

Why is housing bucking the trend ?

10
up

Because you don't live in your car or washer. And those depreciate the moment you buy them?

Buildings depreciate and take maintenance just like a car. Only land appreciates.

Land is a speculative commodity.

It doesn't just appreciate.
it rides with macroeconomic fortune.

When and how did you learn that

When I've had to take impairments on land through my accounts.

Do you think differently?

I'm not sure. I was wondering when and/or how you learnt that land rides macroeconomic fortunes

Take a look at the history of property bubbles there Houseworks. Its the land price underneath the house that is generally what caused the price appreciation and that appreciation is usually the result of a number of rational macroeconomic factors (supply/demand, interest rates, money supply/inflation) as well as human irrationality (FOMO, fads, bad banking practises etc).

What do you think prices land?

If someone land banks, does the productivity of the land double every 10 years - i.e. generate twice the earnings potential? (if the land prices double every 10 years argument is true). It could of course if rents double every 10 years, or if used for cropping/farming and that doubles the income which could be used to justify double the pricing. But what about bare land? What determines its price rises? (honest question).

I'm not saying you're wrong but you didnt mention inflation. Without a cashflow then an owner is right to expect a value increase the same as those who invest in bitcoin gold and object d'art. Residential land could also fall in value during an economic boom... if more sections came on the market and there was a glut. The old supply and demand

"Without a cashflow then an owner is right to expect a value increase the same as those who invest in bitcoin gold and object d'art."

Erm yeah, those would all be speculative asset classes.
Which goes back to my original point.

And "the old supply and demand"... well, erm, yeah.
Macroeconomic fortune influences supply and demand last I checked.
Land doesn't sit in a microcosm outside of the broader economy.
So again, we go back to my original point.

And no.
No one "is *right* to *expect*" anything with those asset classes.

Not exactly sure what you're trying to prove here.

Until a couple of weeks ago everyone was talking percentage DROPS for property assets. Since then there is a drift to angry comments targeting the govt and rbnz for their actions that (apparently) indirectly benefit asset owners. Is there finally a realization the worst will not come to fruition, that's something I knew way back in April. I certainly "appreciate" my bit of beautiful land. Since lockdown ended I've had calls from 3 agents, it's not even for sale.

"Something I knew"

You didn't *know*.
What absolute unadulterated rubbish.

You're in the wrong business if that's the case - you should be running billion dollar portfolios, not playing the in tiny pimple NZ residential real estate market.

Criticism if the RBNZ is completely valid.
In a true free market this would never happen, which "(apparently)" you property bros are all about ("the old supply and demand" don't ya know).
The RBNZ's action were total speculation as it's not in their mandate to support asset prices.

But sure you speculated on a speculative asset and won. That's it. Well done but get back in your box, you're no genius.

That was my entire point which you've done absolutely nothing to dispel.

.

Yes my response included inflation (and money supply) if you look closely enough.

Can you please tell IRD that, it only allows 0% depreciation on residential homes.

Depreciation on buildings

Depreciation was allowed on most buildings until 2010 and for the 2012 – 2020 income years the depreciation rate for buildings with an estimated life of more than 50 years was set at zero.

Changes in 2020 reintroduce depreciation deductions for non-residential buildings for the 2021 and subsequent income years.

https://www.ird.govt.nz/income-tax/income-tax-for-businesses-and-organis...

Sadly we actually do have people living in cars in this country.

10
up

Couple reasons.

1) Bubble full of unsophisticated Ma & Pa investors = overbid and slow to absorb new information. 'Safe as houses' Alot seem to be buying the 'kiwis returning home push the market up' narrative despite the fact that there's frankly nowhere that this would really make sense to occur other than perhaps the U.S.A.

2) Money machine go brrrrrr

Good point

1) Bubble full of unsophisticated Ma & Pa investors = overbid and slow to absorb new information.

Agree as have eeen, even in stock market they get stuck many a times losing their equity.

Hi buyandhold,

It's not just Ma and Pa investors that seek property......

It's also first-home buyers, people with families looking to buy something bigger/better, newly-single people, older people looking for a smaller dwelling - to name just a few.

Frankly, the demand for NZ housing is insatiable. The likelihood is that there'll never be enough - so the long-term prospects for housing are excellent.

Right now, the housing market's vital signs remain strong - despite the ravages of Covid-19, internationally, and the onslaught of our winter weather......

With respect to the Government's high level of competency in handling the Covid-19 crisis, NZ has become high-profile, internationally. It's reputation as a country-of-choice to reside in has increased further.

For the naive here who think we're in a "housing bubble", you've seen nothing yet. House prices in NZ are set to rise much further over the medium term.

TTP

"Frankly, the demand for NZ housing is insatiable. The likelihood is that there'll never be enough - so the long-term prospects for housing are excellent." [...] "you've seen nothing yet. House prices in NZ are set to rise much further over the medium term"

Do you truly believe this? Or is it just more of your blatant lies? If you really believe this, you better provide some numbers on which you base your beliefs (wet dreams, more likely). You're aware that it's not easy to become a resident in NZ, right? Perhaps a 100 million people want to live here, but that doesn't mean they can. Ever heard of visa requirements? Path to residency?
We shall see the net migration numbers for 2020 at the end of the year...

Yes its the 'insatiable' thing I find quite funny as that is an indicator of a bubble on the way up - be it housing, shares or tulips! Human irrationality.

Not easy to become a PR?! Are you having a laugh?

Its often a challenge to tell if a comment is a troll, is serious, or is sarcastic.

Demand for an item shouldn't be insatiable, unless of course its in a bubble and people are behaving in an irrational manner towards it (be in tulips or houses).

Has our behaviour towards property always been insatiable TTP - or is this a 'new normal'?

Note also that demand for housing was insatiable in the USA before their property bubble burst and it was merely people using leverage to speculate on capital gains, not real demand for accommodation (which in theory is the primary utility of a home). Whilst witnessing the bubble burst - there was no insatiable appetite for property, nor did their appear to be a lack of supply - it was simply the demand to speculate on capital gains (an irrational human behavior, similar to sheep wanting to move together into another grazing plot) disappeared...

Hi Independent Observer & CourtJester,

One only has to go back 4-5 months here to find that you and your mates were telling everyone that the housing market would tank by winter. You came up with wildly astray estimates of the fall in house prices. Further, you were enthusiastically anticipating the carnage.

You lot have no credibility. Nobody should give any credence to what you say.

A couple of shysters if ever there were.

TTP

That isn't true - I haven't made any suggestion that the housing market WOULD tank by winter. I have made suggestion that it COULD tank. Please note the difference and don't change the narrative of others peoples views.

Its interesting how you are using similar tactics to Donald Trump - 'you lot have no credibility' 'nobody should give any credence to what you say' 'a couple of shysters'. Bit like Donald - if anyone calls you out you must dismiss and belittle them - regardless of the quality of the argument.

Do you attempt to bully and belittle people in real life (including business) as well if they don't agree with you?

LOL says the guy who got caught lying several times already. By the way, you are lying again. Please link to my comment where I said prices will crash by this winter. I predicted -7% by the end of 2020, that was my only prediction. You are constantly lying. It's pathetic.

"demand for NZ housing is insatiable"
Which is why sales in Auckland in 2019 were same as in 2009 with 250k more folk then?
And why 2019 sales in Auckland were 27% below that in 2013?
Demand as you put it , is for affordable stuff to buy or rent.
NZ housing in general is affordable to 60% of the pop
In Auckland it is more like 35%

Source please for white good sales being in a sorry state? I wanted to buy a fridge, but told that there was a four week wait due to demand. Same with ovens.

Same with smart phones, toasted-sandwich makers, coffee grinders, popcorn makers and electric toothbrushes......

Many electronic goods are in short-supply with waiting lists. )-:

TTP

20
up

See....Today is turn of Positive news......

Tomorrow will again be negative narrative......the show must go on......

With all the RBNZ and welfare support, we're still just plodding along?

23
up

Sorry but this is garbage.
June was not back to normal. It was a reflection, as I predicted a day ago on this site and on LinkedIn, of delayed sales from April and May. Take a look (on BT site) at what TOTAL sales were for March - June inclusive, in 2019 and in 2020. It was utterly predictable that BT sales in June would "bounce" back. When I have added up figs for March-June, I will put them on here.

16
up

Figures much influenced by completions on presold apartments :

1001/ 39 Beach Road, 1004/39 Beach Road, 1005/39 Beach Road, 1009/39 Beach Road, 1010/ 39 Beach Road, 1012/39 Beach Road, 1013/39 Beach Road, 1014/39 Beach Road, 1015/ 39 Beach Road, 1016/39 Beach Road, 1017/ 39 Beach Road, 1018/ 39 Beach Road, 1101/ 39 Beach Road, 1102/39 Beach Road, 1103/39 Beach Road, 1104/ 41-47 Beach Road, 1105/39 Beach Road, 1106/ 39 Beach Road, 1201/39 Beach Road, 1203/ 39 Beach Road, 1204/39 Beach Road, 1205/ 39 Beach Road, 1206/39 Beach Road, 1207/39 Beach Road, 1208/ 39 Beach Road, 1209/39 Beach Road, 1211/39 Beach Road, 1212/39 Beach Road, 1213/39 Beach Road, 1214/39 Beach Road, 1301/ 39 Beach Road, 1303/ 39 Beach Road, 1304/39 Beach Road, 1402/39 Beach Road, 1403/39 Beach Road, 1405/ 39 Beach Road, 1406/39 Beach Road, 1407/39 Beach Road, 1408/39 Beach Road, 1409/ 39 Beach Road, 1410/39 Beach Road, 1411/39 Beach Road, 1412/39 Beach Road, 1413/39 Beach Road, 1414/39 Beach Road, 16 Beach Road, 209/39 Beach Road, 38 Beach Road, 603/39 Beach Road, 667 Beach Road, 804/ 39 Beach Road, 901/ 39 Beach Road, 902/39 Beach Road, 903/39 Beach Road, 905/39 Beach Road, 906/39 Beach Road, 907/39 Beach Road,
106/ 2 Madden Street, 111/ 2 Madden Street, 112/ 2 Madden Street, 113/ 2 Madden Street, 201/ 2 Madden Street, 204/ 2 Madden Street, 205/ 2 Madden Street, 206/ 2 Madden Street, 208/ 2 Madden Street, 209/ 2 Madden Street, 211/ 2 Madden Street, 213/ 2 Madden Street, 304/ 2 Madden Street, 305/ 2 Madden Street, 306/ 2 Madden Street, 308/ 2 Madden Street, 310/ 2 Madden Street, 311/ 2 Madden Street, 312/ 2 Madden Street, 313/ 2 Madden Street, 401/ 2 Madden Street, 404/ 2 Madden Street, 406/ 2 Madden Street, 408/ 2 Madden Street, 410/ 2 Madden Street, 411/ 2 Madden Street, 501/ 2 Madden Street, 504/ 2 Madden Street, 509/ 2 Madden Street,

etc.

We need to remove these pre sold units if this data is to mean anything.

To be fair, those sales have to show up somewhere. I think it's OK to put them in the data of the month when they're completed. Unless they were also counted when they were initially sold...

I agree with you they should be included in sales but I think reported separately if the figures are to mean anything. I.e. a differentiation between sales transacted in the past 6 weeks and those with a two year gap between when the contract was signed and actual completion.

I dont think we can assign any blame to BnT here though, REINZ should be publishing this stuff.

BnT are probably the most transparent real estate firm in the market and should be applauded for it.

11
up

I've already called them out on double counting sales data. 53 out of 58 Apartments below were included in July 2019 sales and then again in April.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/104829/big-decline-sales-barfoot-tho...

by Nzdan | 4th May 20, 8:34pm
7
up
Are Barfoots double counting sales? How many of those apartments appear in this July 2019 "Full List Of Residential Sales"?

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/market-reports/2019/july/full-list-of-residential-sales

Of the 58 Wakefield properties, only 13A, 1D, 5E, 9D and 9E are absent in the July 2019 Sales Report. So why would they report a residential sale in July, and then report a sale again on "completion" in April?

Wonder if we will see a correction...

Greg,

Kindly note full comment on double counting below.

G.

Well done Glitzy
About 17 lines of 5 I see, or about 85 sales.
Question then is, how many apartments sold in June last year.
But see my analysis of last 4 month sales and "catch up"
All those apartment sales will have made a big dent in the median

"Barfoot & Thompson had a reasonably buoyant sales month in June, selling 820 residential properties which was up 4.3% on June last year. .... Barfoots also received a surge of 1582 new listings in June which was up by 56.3% compared to June last year."
So new listings was up by 56.3% on June last year but sales was only up 4.3%? holy moly... buckle up people!

see below

i've seen a significant amount of new listings yesterday and today (i.e. july) for the auckland suburbs i watch.
i would guess it is about a x5 normal volume than i would normally see. will be interesting to see if the 'surge' contiunes.

1582 new listings vs 820 sales in a month. Where's that housing shortage again?

12
up

It mentions that listing was up by 56.3% in June 2020 compare to June 2019 and sale was only up 4.3% in June 2020 compare to June 2019 does it not mean more unsold stock in June 2020 compare to June 2019.

Data is skinned everyday - Glass is half full or half empty - can spin to suit individual narrative.

Still wait till September/October For the verdict.

Thanks Jacinda..

Come on now, a good Nat never forgets to mention Helen Clark as well.

LOL.. My registered electorate is ACT's fortress. The Nat party has no place there!

Act is just a free MP for National, that get's them more democratic representation than is democratically appropriate.

It's not just that, it gives folk a chance to adopt a pretense of being libertarian too.

ACT fortress... so thats why they got 696 party votes to nationals 22,875 in Epsom?
Nah, Seymour is the National party lapdog that give them an extra seat. Sometimes he's not that well behaved and barks, growls and snaps at the hand that feeds him, but that is mostly just a bit of a show for the audience.

Almost all of us in Epsom vote ACT for the candidate and National for the party.

Count me (us) out on that assumption..!

I wasn't living in NZ when the Nats and ACT made this deal. Can someone explain to me why ACT gets to be in parliament? Why doesn't the 5% threshold apply to them?

ACT's David Seymour is a proper elected MP for the seat of Epsom and not one of these "list" MPs.

Hi Chairman Motor Moa,

There are quite a few people who reckon that ACT will be gone after the election......

Have you thought of a political career your good self?

TTP

tothelyingpoint
Yup, fully paid Greens member..

10
up

Ok here you go: March to June inclusive, BT sold 3237 in 2019 and 2864 in 2020.
That is a 11.5% decline.
April and May 19 total was 1488
April and May 2020 total was 948, or down 540 on 2019 (down 36%)
June was 34 up on 2019 (820 v 786) or up 4.3%
So, plainly June figure was some compensation for huge drop in prev 2 months.
But NOT back to normal, and not a recovery of prev loss.
More analysis needed, but not of type which Mr Thompson wants to give.

17
up

Mike, we have 1.7mm people on the wage subsidy scheme and 60% more people unemployed but ready to work than this time last year. Anyone who thinks the property market is immune to reality is utterly bonkers.

Totally agree
Sales will fall at least 25% for rest of year, if not 35%
Prices I am afraid will barely move in Auckland, esp with all the QE for the rich to leverage off

Really? You think so? If sales fall, the housing stock keep increasing, how can you keep the price same? I often heard people are using supply and demand theory to get a conclusion that house price will never fall if demand is higher than supply. How come this theory wouldn't work here?

There is need (theoretical demand) and then there is actual buyers capable of buying and wanting to (real demand)
Unfortunately v few commentators distinguish.
There are 45,000 households roughly who would like and need a house in Auckland, approx, acc to a few sources
But since they cannot afford them, it is not real demand
prices are not affected by those in need, but by those who are able and actively looking to buy

Having demand is being willing AND able to purchase a good or service. Until the funds are guaranteed, there is no demand

Why do 'The Borrowers' get special treatment?

Yes indeed. Massive miss by labour
All those renting get b all cf mortgage holders who are allowed 6 month off and capitalised payments

Headline could also be :

NUMBER OF HOUSE FOR SALE INCREASE BY MASSIVE 56.3% COMPARE TO SALE INCREASING BY ONLY 4.3% IN JUNE 2020 COMPARE TO JUNE 2019

OR

MORE SUPPLY THAN DEMAND IN JUNE 2020 COMPARE TO SAME TIME LAST YEAR

Except that the listings were put OTM market in June whereas the sales commenced 6-8 weeks prior and were held up in prev 2 months due to CV19 and restrictions on RE work.

But sales still can not pick up from what has left there due to CV19. The stock will just keep increasing as it keeps adding the future months' listings. Don't forget that, the listings were held up in prev 2 months, but the buyers were also held up too. It's pretty easy to find out there are not enough buyers here anymore.

I agree that buyer numbers will fall. And you can see from my contributions above that buyers have in fact fallen in last 4 months combined, by 11.5%
But listings is a v slippery stat.
Listings are often boosted, withdrawn and re-listed.
Also, about 25% of "listings" on RE NZ are not real buildings - that is, they are prospective, not built. Looking through a sample of 500 will show you this.
New listings per day in a particular month is a good metric of what is coming onto the market and hence of propensity to sell.
But it is still not reflective, in turnover terms, of what % of actual owners living in their own house, are putting it OTM.
Listing analysis by RE NZ and everyone else I have seen does not distinguish between new builds and existing house sales.
Evidently, more that are new and marketed, the higher the listings , of NEW places.
But total will not show you propensity and keenness (or otherwise) of owners, to go OTM.
Another key metric is what % have been OTM over 4m but again this is distorted by taking it off market and putting back on, so it looks newer.

To remember that between Oct'18 to Sep'19 housing market was down so now on comparison with June'19 gap is positive or not much but from Oct'19 market zoomed up fast so when comparison will be done in Oct'20 with Oct'19 - gap should be big.

Data will come and go and each agency / individual will manipulate to read what suits but the verdict should be out by end of this year and if going by fundamental looks bad.

No surprise surely. Some catchup from lockdown at what is normally the busiest time of the year.

Thank goodness, that was the shortest price crash in history. Party is back on, go go go buy buy buy!!!

These two statements from King Canute are inconsistent:
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/market-reports/2020/june/market-update

1.
"At month end we had 4,001 properties on our books, giving buyers their greatest choice of property for 12 months."

2.
“Vendors have been satisfied with prices achieved and sales have reduced listing numbers to the point where we are experiencing short term pressure on stock”

How can you have the "greatest choice" - that's latent unsold stock for new players - and experience "short term pressure on stock"??

This whole idea of a shortage of stock is a complete misnomer - there is no shortage.

Indeed. Also, choice of what for whom?
This tendency to amorphosise stats means they are meaningless.
Different buyer groups are confident and not confident, and attracted or repelled, by different types of property.
Having 4000 listings is meaningless. Some of them will be duds and been on market an age because no one wants them
just another example of RE gobbledygook known as "puffery" or bull in plain English

"This tendency to amorphosise stats means they are meaningless."

Is it deliberate or is he just incompetent?

He, absolutely, 100%...
One.
Hundred.
Percent.
... knows what he is doing.

Getting a straight answer from a RE agent is a bit like eating candy floss, it looks & tastes sweet enough but upon digestion you discover there's no substance.

Greg,

I've looked in detail at the raw numbers from B&Ts reports and it appears there is significant double counting.

For example the apartments 1001, 1004, 1012,1013 etc (there are many at 39 Beach Road) were all reported in April nunbers AND June numbers.

If these transactions are being erroneously double counted the narrative being portrayed is genuinely inaccurate.

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/market-reports/2020/june/full-list-of-resident...

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/market-reports/2020/april/full-list-of-residen...

What may also be revealing is that despite CCCs being issued only 56 out of 161 units have been listed as sold by BnT. The implication is that either sales are very weak or buyers are walking away from deposits or perhaps both.

Certainly looks like there is a story to be told about the true sales numbers.

G.

If those sales happened before completion, it's definitely fishy. While possible, it's not very likely that an unfinished apartment changes hands multiple times.

If Barfooot will not manipulate, who will.

In NZ most of stuff is manipulated for vested interest as NZ lacks real unbiased investigative journalism (May be in all countries).

They're sneaky about it too. The duplicated addresses often have an extra space included/removed just past the "/". Throws out the VLOOKUPs.
Paste the list of properties for each report into Excel, run Text to Columns "Delimited" by commas then paste transpose for easy filtering. I found 8 duplicated properties 1001/39, 1004/39, 1012/39, 1014/39, 1203/39, 1209/39, 1412/39, 903/39 just under Beach Road. All of these except 1001/39 & 1203/39 were amended slightly to remove the space. E.g. 1004/ 39 to 1004/39.

Nzdan,

Taking your lead I reviewed all the previous sales data. These apartments were also listed as sold in the Sept 2016 data.

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/market-reports/2016/september/full-list-of-res...

This is an utter sham.

One of these places is also being listed as a Ray White sale in May 2020.

https://rwcityapartments.co.nz/properties/sold-residential/auckland-city...

Surely Interest needs to dig into this issue before quoting these numbers going forward.

I'm sure it's just an honest, convenient oversight.

Where does such optimism come from? Is everything stable and beautiful in the country? Has the country already defeated Covid? Everything is fine? Why are you writing such articles? Maybe enough already? Write real things and don't embellish at last. Do not mislead people. Perhaps you are a real estate agent then everything is clear why everything is stable and excellent on the real estate market.

Its a game of good cop bad cop here. Good news one day, bad the next. Keeps the bulls and bears happy.

On even days it is good news real estate stories and on odd days it is bad news real estate stories. Unless you are a DGM when on odd days it is good news real estate stories and on even days it is bad news real estate stories.

It's good news stories coz most of the news outlets are absolutely shameless paid shills of the Property Industry.

Go to your favourite MSM outlet and spin the wheel on which 'expert' reckons are being reported this week:
- "Oneroof Editor Owen Vaughan" (such an 'expert')
- Valocity valuation guy - WTF is Valocity?
- Ashley Church. Say no more.
- Bindi Norwell. Her job is quite literally to be nothing more than a paid shill for Real Estate Agents.
- Peter Thompson. Could you find a more conflicted 'expert'?
- Tony Alexander. Shameless paid-up industry reckons. Completely killed his credibility.

Haha if that wasn't so close to the truth it would be funny. And people wonder where "fake new" comes from. Bulk ownership of the world's news really has been exposed by more direct internet bases news sources. Some of the CNN stuff is really bad as is Fox news.

Everywhere I look in my hood (Remuera) there are SOLD signs, including an "Auction Brought Forward" on Upland Road... My basic analysis suggests that demand is increasing!

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