The latest figures from Quotable Value show the housing market appears to be finely balanced but it is too early to say whether values are likely to rise or fall.
The QV House Price Index measures average housing values in 98 districts throughout the country. It shows that average values in June were higher than May in 51 districts and lower in 47.
Although that suggests a fairly balanced market, a closer look at the numbers suggests a slight easing overall in June.
That's because average values declined in major housing markets such as Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington and Dunedin in June, where sales volumes were high, while many of the areas where values rose were provincial districts with lower sales volumes.
In the main urban areas combined, the average value of residential properties declined from $847,497 in May to $845,386 in June, while the average value for all of New Zealand dropped from $739,539 in May to $738,018 (see the table below for the value movements in all 98 districts).
However whether values were up or down the differences were mainly very small, and if anything they suggest property values had flattened out in June.
The way the HPI is calculated would have been a significant factor in the changes. The HPI figures are a rolling three month average, with the May figures based on sales that occurred in the three months to the end of May, and the June figures based on sales that occurred in the three months to the end of June.
That means the May figures included the sales that occurred during March, when the market was still buoyant and prices in many districts were reaching record highs. Although sales numbers dropped away in April, the sales that were achieved largely reflected the buoyancy of the previous month.
However the June figures are based on sales that occurred over the three months from April to June, which were more subdued.
While housing values appear to have flattened, it is simply too early to tell whether they are catching their breath before starting to rise again, or whether they have crested the peak and are ready to begin the slide down the other side.
"The QV House Price Index data continued to reflect a gradual decline in quarterly growth in June, with 13 of the 16 major cities we monitor showing a reduction in the rate of growth since May," QV General Manager David Nagel said.
"This indicates the heat we saw in the market pre-lockdown gradually dissipating as the market begins to settle."
However he warned that there could be worse to come.
"With government wage subsidies ending in September and many homeowners that sought relief from banks with mortgage holidays likely to feel some financial pressure heading into summer, the worst is still ahead of us," he said.
"Our earlier projections that the market will experience a correction of 5% to 10% by Christmas from the pre-COVID high of January to March is still looking likely. While some parts of the country will be harder hit than others, any fall in value should be put into context," Nagel said.
"Most parts of New Zealand have experienced value growth in excess of 5% to 10% in just the past 12 months, so for those that can weather the storm, this is simply a passing aberration," he said.
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| QV House Price Index | |||||
| Territorial authority | Average value 3 months ended May 2020 $ | Average value 3 months ended June 2020 $ | Change +/- $ | Change % | |
| Auckland Region | 1,086,223 | 1,082,541 | -$3,682 | -0.34% | |
| Main Urban Areas | 847,497 | 845,386 | -$2,111 | -0.25% | |
| Wellington Region | 787,288 | 783,655 | -$3,633 | -0.46% | |
| Total NZ | 739,539 | 738,018 | -$1,521 | -0.21% | |
| Far North | 492,137 | 495,326 | $3,189 | 0.65% | |
| Whangarei | 586,665 | 579,632 | -$7,033 | -1.20% | |
| Kaipara | 577,135 | 570,218 | -$6,917 | -1.20% | |
| Auckland - Rodney | 984,069 | 982,802 | -$1,267 | -0.13% | |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | 962,786 | 959,114 | -$3,672 | -0.38% | |
| Rodney - North | 1,005,310 | 1,006,216 | $906 | 0.09% | |
| Auckland - North Shore | 1,257,549 | 1,247,243 | -$10,306 | -0.82% | |
| North Shore - Coastal | 1,433,058 | 1,415,153 | -$17,905 | -1.25% | |
| North Shore - North Harbour | 1,213,823 | 1,208,258 | -$5,565 | -0.46% | |
| North Shore - Onewa | 1,025,011 | 1,018,912 | -$6,099 | -0.60% | |
| Auckland - Waitakere | 857,957 | 857,496 | -$461 | -0.05% | |
| Auckland - City | 1,285,679 | 1,277,755 | -$7,924 | -0.62% | |
| Auckland City - Central | 1,120,273 | 1,111,692 | -$8,581 | -0.77% | |
| Auckland City - Islands | 1,139,027 | 1,156,945 | $17,918 | 1.57% | |
| Auckland City - South | 1,150,720 | 1,139,483 | -$11,237 | -0.98% | |
| Auckland_City - East | 1,621,782 | 1,614,325 | -$7,457 | -0.46% | |
| Auckland - Manukau | 937,860 | 939,908 | $2,048 | 0.22% | |
| Manukau - Central | 722,671 | 722,999 | $328 | 0.05% | |
| Manukau - East | 1,198,734 | 1,202,416 | $3,682 | 0.31% | |
| Manukau - North West | 819,547 | 821,734 | $2,187 | 0.27% | |
| Auckland - Papakura | 723,750 | 728,414 | $4,664 | 0.64% | |
| Auckland - Franklin | 688,500 | 696,001 | $7,501 | 1.09% | |
| Thames Coromandel | 820,759 | 809,016 | -$11,743 | -1.43% | |
| Hauraki | 461,644 | 451,506 | -$10,138 | -2.20% | |
| Waikato | 525,823 | 539,667 | $13,844 | 2.63% | |
| Matamata Piako | 504,510 | 505,499 | $989 | 0.20% | |
| Hamilton City | 628,992 | 627,777 | -$1,215 | -0.19% | |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | 590,005 | 587,512 | -$2,493 | -0.42% | |
| Hamilton - North East | 774,291 | 767,383 | -$6,908 | -0.89% | |
| Hamilton - South East | 585,008 | 587,117 | $2,109 | 0.36% | |
| Hamilton - South West | 557,493 | 561,994 | $4,501 | 0.81% | |
| Waipa | 637,689 | 633,778 | -$3,911 | -0.61% | |
| South Waikato | 322,854 | 316,981 | -$5,873 | -1.82% | |
| Waitomo | 246,397 | 267,759 | $21,362 | 8.67% | |
| Taupo | 569,868 | 570,682 | $814 | 0.14% | |
| Western BOP | 707,391 | 698,426 | -$8,965 | -1.27% | |
| Tauranga | 792,643 | 794,189 | $1,546 | 0.20% | |
| Rotorua | 517,916 | 520,222 | $2,306 | 0.45% | |
| Whakatane | 515,250 | 520,589 | $5,339 | 1.04% | |
| Kawerau | 295,923 | 281,996 | -$13,927 | -4.71% | |
| Opotiki | 369,224 | 357,893 | -$11,331 | -3.07% | |
| Gisborne | 434,358 | 431,295 | -$3,063 | -0.71% | |
| Hastings | 593,522 | 587,931 | -$5,591 | -0.94% | |
| Napier | 611,969 | 614,322 | $2,353 | 0.38% | |
| Central Hawkes Bay | 405,052 | 423,655 | $18,603 | 4.59% | |
| New Plymouth | 507,023 | 508,666 | $1,643 | 0.32% | |
| Stratford | 322,034 | 335,179 | $13,145 | 4.08% | |
| South Taranaki | 285,157 | 286,371 | $1,214 | 0.43% | |
| Ruapehu | 259,370 | 259,480 | $110 | 0.04% | |
| Whanganui | 370,057 | 368,891 | -$1,166 | -0.32% | |
| Rangitikei | 285,094 | 294,119 | $9,025 | 3.17% | |
| Manawatu | 466,009 | 467,254 | $1,245 | 0.27% | |
| Palmerston North | 509,859 | 508,716 | -$1,143 | -0.22% | |
| Tararua | 282,279 | 292,004 | $9,725 | 3.45% | |
| Horowhenua | 439,748 | 438,518 | -$1,230 | -0.28% | |
| Kapiti Coast | 669,337 | 669,773 | $436 | 0.07% | |
| Porirua | 692,364 | 691,176 | -$1,188 | -0.17% | |
| Upper Hutt | 633,343 | 639,489 | $6,146 | 0.97% | |
| Hutt | 688,394 | 686,283 | -$2,111 | -0.31% | |
| Wellington City | 894,710 | 887,633 | -$7,077 | -0.79% | |
| Wellington - Central & South | 886,705 | 873,702 | -$13,003 | -1.47% | |
| Wellington - East | 964,454 | 948,794 | -$15,660 | -1.62% | |
| Wellington - North | 817,550 | 819,472 | $1,922 | 0.24% | |
| Wellington - West | 1,016,824 | 1,005,844 | -$10,980 | -1.08% | |
| Masterton | 426,012 | 440,126 | $14,114 | 3.31% | |
| Carterton | 475,628 | 477,087 | $1,459 | 0.31% | |
| South Wairarapa | 583,811 | 578,835 | -$4,976 | -0.85% | |
| Tasman | 629,768 | 634,688 | $4,920 | 0.78% | |
| Nelson | 658,374 | 661,345 | $2,971 | 0.45% | |
| Marlborough | 515,394 | 513,507 | -$1,887 | -0.37% | |
| Buller | 208,475 | 207,752 | -$723 | -0.35% | |
| Grey | 228,338 | 229,443 | $1,105 | 0.48% | |
| Westland | 277,150 | 282,820 | $5,670 | 2.05% | |
| Hurunui | 398,995 | 405,820 | $6,825 | 1.71% | |
| Waimakariri | 463,281 | 465,639 | $2,358 | 0.51% | |
| Christchurch City | 517,376 | 518,369 | $993 | 0.19% | |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | 547,999 | 539,096 | -$8,903 | -1.62% | |
| Christchurch - Central & North | 605,070 | 607,304 | $2,234 | 0.37% | |
| Christchurch - East | 394,006 | 393,126 | -$880 | -0.22% | |
| Christchurch - Hills | 701,439 | 709,750 | $8,311 | 1.18% | |
| Christchurch - Southwest | 491,701 | 492,086 | $385 | 0.08% | |
| Selwyn | 564,650 | 567,795 | $3,145 | 0.56% | |
| Ashburton | 374,168 | 380,087 | $5,919 | 1.58% | |
| Timaru | 392,001 | 391,462 | -$539 | -0.14% | |
| MacKenzie | 594,010 | 566,913 | -$27,097 | -4.56% | |
| Waimate | 290,466 | 287,190 | -$3,276 | -1.13% | |
| Waitaki | 352,206 | 352,549 | $343 | 0.10% | |
| Central Otago | 597,205 | 599,540 | $2,335 | 0.39% | |
| Queenstown Lakes | 1,218,418 | 1,192,613 | -$25,805 | -2.12% | |
| Dunedin City | 552,475 | 547,531 | -$4,944 | -0.89% | |
| Dunedin - Central & North | 562,304 | 558,691 | -$3,613 | -0.64% | |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | 492,355 | 493,532 | $1,177 | 0.24% | |
| Dunedin - South | 539,072 | 525,107 | -$13,965 | -2.59% | |
| Dunedin - Taieri | 577,302 | 575,953 | -$1,349 | -0.23% | |
| Clutha | 290,886 | 279,588 | -$11,298 | -3.88% | |
| Southland | 355,928 | 370,950 | $15,022 | 4.22% | |
| Gore | 279,245 | 281,661 | $2,416 | 0.87% | |
| Invercargill | 350,019 | 355,952 | $5,933 | 1.70% | |
| Auckland Region | 1,086,223 | 1,082,541 | -$3,682 | -0.34% | |
| Main Urban Areas | 847,497 | 845,386 | -$2,111 | -0.25% | |
| Wellington Region | 787,288 | 783,655 | -$3,633 | -0.46% | |
| Total NZ | 739,539 | 738,018 | -$1,521 | -0.21% | |
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