Even though Level 3 lockdown affected auctions in Auckland, overall activity was still up by two thirds compared to last year

Hi FB
You had a change of mind? You were claiming anyone buying a house was "stoopied". Feeling that you might have now missed the bus?
However don't fret, just wait . . . listen to your like-minded friends as that bubble burst is coming. :)
Cheers mate.

Misguided scapegoating. Focusing on the demand side of the equation is never a recipe for success when it comes to land, with the possible exception of reducing immigration. If we build one house for every man, woman and child in this country I guarantee prices will fall.

That's utter rubbish, Foreign buyer. Shame on you!

Adrian is one of NZ's best economics brains - plus a damned good manager and decent kiwi bloke.

Spent his early career at highly regarded think-tank NZ Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) where he was seen as immensely talented and someone who would go places fast. And indeed he did, taking leading roles in the trading bank sector and on to Deputy Governor of RBNZ. Then he became CEO at the Guardians of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund which is one of the most prestigious jobs in our public sector - and the highest paid. Deservedly, he became Governor of the Reserve Bank a couple of years ago.

NZ is extremely lucky to have Adrian Orr - he could be overseas earning an immense salary.

TTP

I think adrian should be on the same asset register as MPs,on his mega salary and fund management skills I would expect him to be worth millions,but would be disappointed if he had a highly leveraged property portfolio when he is driving interest rates down.

I doubt it. Most poor people will either be too busy or won't be sharp enough to realize that Orr is orchestrating a massive wealth transfer to asset owners.
He's obviously picked the side he's going to support (asset owners) and chosen to hell with the consequences on others.

It’s a giant game of “follow my leader” the leader in this case JPowell at the Federal reserve.

Furthermore, he has control of most relevant economic policies right now while nobody has voted for him.

His decisions now will affect millions in the years to come yet he has no legitimacy to do so.

The poor would not know who Adrian Orr is let alone have his picture on his dartboard.

Yeah, this current government has ended up being a case of the saying "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss".

Do you think he is getting his orders from the from a leftist government? In theory the RBNZ is a non-democratic independent body, however all indicates he's doing all that banks dictate just a few months after they do, so reality would indicate otherwise.

that's because wages are rocketing up, it's all based on fundamentals.

How about we wait for the latest HPI data rather than rely on anecdotal “feels”

Yeah Greg, your lazy thinking doesn't fit the narrative (sarc on)

Unless longer time frames and context are included, the narrative is unrepresentative and partial at best, or at worst, simply misleading.

Right. But people don't care. They need something to believe in. So if auction results for a week or whatever show most houses sold above some govt-assigned value benchmark, people either start doing online cartwheels because they believe that the bubble has moved to impregnable level while others feel that Grand Wizard Orr is casting the wrong spells.

To be honest, all bubbles end up with the mainstream engaging in dialogue with huge elements of irrationality and emotion. Our bubble has just been disturbed by probably the most unimaginable shock (except for a possibly a nuclear holocaust). It's no wonder people on a livewire considering NZ as a whole doubled down on the bubble a long time ago. Those who cannot accept the existence of a bubble are probably their own worst enemies as they have little understanding of protecting themselves. OTOH, those who could see how this potentially could unfold should be in a much better position. Now Bitcoin was one of those places to move as central banks continued their wanton destruction. It's the kind stuff you most definitely cannot bring up around the water filter without drawing suspicion to yourself. The sheeple don't like this kind of sorcery. Their faith is more likley to be captured by high priestess Bindi and Ashley 'snakeoil' Church.

The understanding of statistics and data analysis among NZers is woefully poor. This is why any media outlet can operate with free abandon. Think of it as no different to the middle ages when the peasants were in fear of the religious leaders and accepted their claims and decrees without any question. Similar situation exists today, particularly with channels such as Granny Herald. Interest dot co as well with these auction results. Oh well, at the end of the day, traffic is important in these data-driven media times.

Agree now it is do or die to protect housing market as stakes are too high.

ANY FALL IN HOUSE PRICE WILL LEAD TO COLLAPSE OF ECONOMY which is also very evident by action of reserve bank and government. Government has been most active to protect the bubble than businesses. If businesses that are affected by coronavirus, now have to look after themeselves as cannot afford to continue stimulus forever than does not the same logic to apply for mortage - so called investors/speculators.

Eperts / Media should ask government :

IF GOVERNMENT UNDERSTAND AND OFFERING MORTAGE HOLIDAY TILL END OF MARCH (To protect housing market) THAN WHY NOT SUPPORT BUSINESSES/ AFFECTED INDUSTRY WITH WAGES SUBSIDY AND OTHER STIMULUS ALSO TILL END OF MARCH. WHY ?

Asset prices can go down, it is just how a free market works, unless we are no longer in one of course.

Regarding whether price falls can be allowed, of course they can and it should be encouraged when a bubble has formed! Some ideas would be better control of land prices, lower subdivision costs or a CGT like all other countries of our environment have.

Banks create debt by fractional lending, which in turn it usually gets paid back in full, usually with the returns of labor and productive economy. Once debt gets paid off it becomes part of the bank's equity, since this money didn't exist in the first place and the bank did nothing to make that except from already having a fraction of cash reserves, what is stopping us (except from some half-baked old liberal narratives) from getting all this wealth back (with the exception of the interest), which we could use to help offsetting the negative equity asset holders might end up with?

Bubbles happen, we should just have the mechanisms in place (which we lack) so they can pay for themselves and not drag everyone with them based on the greed or the bad decisions of some.

No. Grand Wizard Orr is trying to protect the 67% of h'holds who fall within one standard deviation of the mean.

Yes agreed that's why at the very least we should be taxing those off shore owners. Which would in turn provide a huge economy boost to help fund affordable housing, something that a number of Western countries are currently do and is hugely successful for them.

Lots of Auckland houses are empty with foreign owners having benefitted greatly from huge capital gains. These capital gains are now being protected by Orr at the absolute detriment of poor, young and future New Zealanders. What is happening is a national disgrace. The RBNZ should have accountability.

Yes, there is likely to be empty homes sitting around Auckland for various reasons: money laundering for foreign intetests included (btw, look at Australia. One of the world's easiest countries for filthy lucre). And it's quite possible that meth profits have been poured into Auckland houses.

But let's get real. Blaming foreigners for the bubble is reactionary nonsense. And I know this all about the perennial boogeyman: the Chinese. I know for sure that there are plenty of ratbags from China who've set up shop and NZ is another money laundering paradise for mafia money and stolen public monies from China (not that John Key or any other of the political troughers care).

You're barking up the wrong tree. The primary driver of the NZ bubble (and all of the other Anglo bubbles) is credit created from thin air. Deal with it.

You'll need to provide some evidence of this. The few empty houses I see round the place all get demolished or renovated in fairly short order.

Doubled your debt more like. You need to actually look at how the property ponzi scheme works and remember falling mortgage interest rates and foreign money can not last forever.

Of course house prices were going to double mortgage belt. I predicted it in 2010. Why you know why. Central Banks creating asset inflation to boost the economy. It does not take an expert to figure out.

This time the fed and the central banks are coordinating a global takeover. Bypassing the banks and govt. They will fund corporates and Wall street directly forcing commercial banks out of business once they issue central bank digital currency and Ubi.

Be very afraid of what comes next..

Really would not enjoy trying to buy a decent house in a decent area in Auckland for between 1m - 1.2m. I'm looking in Tauranga in the same price bracket and having a bit of trouble. Much newer builds in Tauranga and the standard of houses is far higher than Auckland overall.

Agree this time is kiwi Indians specially in Auckland as are buying stand alone house to build more house.

but in the real world, nothing is ' too big to fail'.

Do you know what was also too big to fail? The US housing market.

Another piece of shameful lobby propaganda BTW.

RBA is protecting their own and passing the buck. Mind you, for them to acknowledge that a 'crash' is possible represents a big shift in attitude. Nevertheless, they modify the probability accordingly as to not spook the sheeple (if they are listening).

FB
You would do the Don proud. Twist the facts to suit your narrative.
The article you refer to is based on a RBA stress test. The RBNZ - while estimating a fall of 10% - similarly did stress tests up to 40% as RBA has done.
The article has an alarmist bias regarding the RBA stress test and you take that even further.
The article notes that the RBA see it as an “extreme case” albeit plausible hence it was one of a number of scenarios tested - far, far different from your claim “RBA knows what’s coming”.
If this the basis of your assertion of a bubble burst - then you are very, very desperate in trying to justify it. :)

Note: While RBNZ did the same stress tests, they specifically commented that those tests should not be reported out of context. Your article does that for the RBA test - and you take it even further. Desperation stuff mate. Cheers