The number of people in NZ on work and student visas is in steady decline

Property

Work visa numbers down 10% from March peak, student visa numbers down 20% from a year ago

19th Oct 20, 12:29pm by Greg Ninness

The number of people in this country on work and student visas continues to decline.

According to the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment, which monitors the number of people in the country by visa type, there were 199,509 people on work visas in this country at the end of September.

That was down by 21,696 (-9.8%) compared to the March peak of 221,205, but still ahead of the 196,995 people that were in the country on work visas in September last year.

Work visa numbers usually follow regular seasonal trends, typically peaking in March, then declining slightly over April, May and June, before flattening out in July and starting to rise again in August.

The numbers have followed that trend again this year, except instead of picking up again in August they have continued to decline in both August and September.

The drop in the number of people in the country on work visas would have been greater except there has been a dramatic reduction in the number of people on work visas leaving the country, which declined from 13,362 in September last year to 4938 in September this year.

That has been partially offset by an increase in the number of people transferring from work visas to residency visas, which rose from 1413 in September last year to 2187 in September this year.

There were 13,296 people who had their work visas renewed in September, unchanged from September last year.

The number of overseas students in this country has declined at twice the pace of those on work visas.

Overseas student numbers typically peak in February and remain more or less stable until October, then fall away strongly over November and December before jumping back up again in January and February.

However this year the numbers peaked as usual in February but have declined in every month since.

At the end of September there were 67,863 people in this country on student visas, down by 15,018 (-18%) compared to the February peak and down by 15,933 (-19%) compared to September last year.

In September, 6192 people who were already in the country had their student visas renewed, 1398 transferred from student visas to work visas and 1023 people on student visas left the country.

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56 Comments

by Advisor | 19th Oct 20, 1:56pm 1603068995

Adviser says INZ asking migrants who don't make the criteria for either temporary visas or permanent residency to prepare their departure is 'not the Kiwi way'.

A lot to unpack in this article from so-called immigration experts with financial interest from volume-based migration.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428288/overseas-workers-told-to-lea…

by Tillers | 19th Oct 20, 1:11pm 1603066299

Prediction is for rents to start declining from
November as university finishes. Our property manager was saying it’s the first time he hasn’t been able to fill up a vacant house within a week in Sandringham since 2012! Its not a lack of suitable tenants but a lack of people coming through. 3 bedroom house $690 per week- wants me to drop to $650

by andreas_od | 19th Oct 20, 1:34pm 1603067655

and also , renovate it , because you are supposed to host people , not other beings

by WellingtonInvestor | 20th Oct 20, 1:44am 1603111474

All these retired people taking out their cash from the bank to put it into housing could end up in trouble IMO. I do wonder how many ghost houses there are already in NZ. I understand it could be over 100k of houses aren't being lived in.

by Starr | 20th Oct 20, 7:05pm 1603173931

Yep COVID has finally caught up with rental market. Many tenants are now becoming first home owners too and borders being shut. Rentals will be down but house prices continue to go up. I wonder what will happen in February when mortgage deferrals end and everyone that can buy a house already did and there is more listings and less buyers....

by Flying high | 19th Oct 20, 1:14pm 1603066458

Tbh I would have thought the decline would be much higher especially student visas

by stuart786786 | 19th Oct 20, 1:24pm 1603067093

Should be worse next year as in 2020 many international student had already paid fees and were in country before the March lockdown.

It should be next year that one has to watch out.

by Flying high | 19th Oct 20, 1:43pm 1603068208

Nah those already here on SV would stay and renew or even apply for work visa. No way I would go home for Xmas or Chinese new year if I was in their position.

by MortgageBelt | 19th Oct 20, 1:48pm 1603068511

Yes, most already in the system.
By Feb 2021 - international students will be down by 80% or more

by Flying high | 19th Oct 20, 2:26pm 1603070766

sure mate. Election over so govt has more ability to move and i think they will

by karl seastrand | 19th Oct 20, 2:34pm 1603071255

down 80%? Hope so.

by Flying high | 19th Oct 20, 4:42pm 1603078965

Karl Marx is that you

by karl seastrand | 20th Oct 20, 11:18am 1603145881

Hopefully named after Karl Popper rather than Karl Marx but you would need to ask Mum. Just wish she had named me Pauline! One day we will see how right she was. Just take a look at Brussels, Paris or Stockholm.

by karl seastrand | 19th Oct 20, 2:33pm 1603071209

stuart.. don't you mean it should be better? Fewer student and work visas is positive unless you are fixated on financial gain.

by Contrarian | 19th Oct 20, 1:24pm 1603067069

Any idea about the number of overstayers ?

by stuart786786 | 19th Oct 20, 1:25pm 1603067126

Most visas have been extended.

by karl seastrand | 20th Oct 20, 11:20am 1603146042

How many at the Mt Roskill church who didn't front for a test are overstayers? I guess it would be racist to want an investigation.

by nigelh | 19th Oct 20, 1:33pm 1603067625

I wonder how soon after the covids restrictions are eased further that Labour will open the taps again?
Now we have Council of Trade Unions after some payback now Winnie is gone. Trade Unions are predominately interested in their members, not unemployment or inequality.

by Advisor | 19th Oct 20, 1:48pm 1603068520

You're right. More low-wage migrants = more members needing protection.

The number of incoming Labour list MPs (plus the existing ones) who have worked directly or indirectly for unions in the past is truly mind-boggling.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/vote-2020/election-2020-the-forty-new…

Earlier this year, CTU called for the government to offer permanent residency to all migrant workers in NZ - perfectly summarises their stance on immigration.

by K.W. | 19th Oct 20, 2:32pm 1603071140

If they all get residency visas, they can all buy houses.

by andreas_od | 19th Oct 20, 2:49pm 1603072187

no, they can't , they don't have money

by sharetrader | 19th Oct 20, 2:35pm 1603071357

did you also notice the amount of health people coming in on the labour side, 3 real doctors and a midwife.
and nationals only doctor (whom i like) looks like it may lose his seat on specials and come in on the list.
it will make an interesting health select committee, labour can stock it with health people

by Advisor | 19th Oct 20, 3:01pm 1603072875

Not denying that at all, it's a pleasure to have those skills in the Parliament.
It is a bit concerning that so many incoming MPs having no broad policy experience other than in collective bargaining.

Having said that, the National caucus has too many career politicians and business people who don't understand policy at all.
Waiting for the day we elect more candidates like Bill English and Grant Robertson across the board.

by rastus1 | 19th Oct 20, 1:41pm 1603068076

Why cant we get workers and need immigrants? Simple..because the benefit gets abated so heavily. Would you pick fruit if 60% of the splendid wage was lost via abatements?

Frustratingly this never gets much transaction as a headline - everything else gets blamed, typically lazy kiwi's or low wages. . Hopefully benefit reform is the top of the agenda.

Then we can happily wave by bye to these temp workers..

by Advisor | 19th Oct 20, 1:54pm 1603068895

We could start by finding out how many of those who became 'skilled migrant' residents over the last 10 years ended up on some sort of welfare shortly after.

I say that because 4 out of the 5 parties that have made it into Parliament have no interest in stopping low-wage migration; in fact, National-ACT argue for more of it.

by Pusheen | 19th Oct 20, 10:19pm 1603099185

Jude on record stating they're a needed skill/well trained workforce.. aka seasonal labourer, highly skilled that's why they in fly in/out mostly.

by WestieAJ | 19th Oct 20, 2:14pm 1603070046

Labour manifesto policy is to increase the abatement threshold from $90 to $160 and raise it further year on year. Post covid the $250 dole may be transitioned into a UBI (for the poor) of sorts. But you can increase your in-hand income legally by 50% in exchange for approx 1 days work. Great for people in the regions now with a plentiful supply of seasonal jobs.

by K.W. | 19th Oct 20, 2:35pm 1603071306

Why would you go pick fruit when you are still on the higher Covid unemployment benefit? Its literally a paid perpetual holiday. Maybe when they get put onto the basic JobSeeker we might see some decide that working is preferable to sitting at home watching Netflix.

by WestieAJ | 19th Oct 20, 2:54pm 1603072497

Covid Dole was only designed to last until last Saturday. The holiday is over now.

by b21 | 19th Oct 20, 2:16pm 1603070211

@Greg Ninness you guys keep publishing immigration news in the property section when there is a news sections which would be more suitable, is this an oversight?

by Camel's back | 20th Oct 20, 7:43am 1603133037

Wouldn't think so, immigration being one of the main drivers for house price inflation.

by b21 | 20th Oct 20, 8:51am 1603137091

Sorry but makes no sense, you could use the same rule of thumb to add to the property section all economic and politics articles then.

by CourtJester | 19th Oct 20, 2:16pm 1603070216

Landlords better start praying that mortgages decrease faster than rent. Combined with increased rates and potentially missed rental income (tenants losing income, longer time on the market when looking for a new tenant), that 4% ROI can quickly turn into 0%.

by Yvil | 19th Oct 20, 2:23pm 1603070626

Your (fake) concern for landlords is admirable (not)

by CourtJester | 19th Oct 20, 2:25pm 1603070719

Oh, I'm not concerned, not even trying to fake that. The highly leveraged slumlords are the ones who should be concerned.

by Yvil | 19th Oct 20, 4:44pm 1603079064

I don't understand you, so what you're saying is that landlords, who are paying less and less in interest costs and who own multiple properties, which have appreciated immensely in value, should be concerned ???

by CourtJester | 19th Oct 20, 6:34pm 1603085653

Domestic tourism won't make up for the lack of international tourism -> AirBnB's will stand vacant (see Queenstown rental price decreases as an example).
Those who would've lost their jobs if it wasn't for the wage subsidies will lose their jobs or get reduced hours. They will eventually run out of savings and won't be able to afford their rental.
The big gap in immigration compared to previous years will stay with us for a while.
Increasing house prices will counter the decrease in interest rates (applies to new landlords) and also dampen the ROI.
Appreciation doesn't do anything to your cashflow, unless you sell.
Not sure why you don't understand this.

by Yvil | 19th Oct 20, 8:17pm 1603091825

I don't understand this because I know you're quite simply wrong, yes, wrong. I do own a Motel and Airbnb's and we have recovered fully and we are at 100% income compared to last year.

So house prices are appreciating, mortgages are dropping and tourism is going just fine and landlords are absolutely creaming it. I'm not saying it's right that landlords are creaming it but I am saying that you're full of it, you have no idea what you're talking about and you just post stuff out of jealousy and frustration, which may be understandable but it's still completely wrong.

by CourtJester | 20th Oct 20, 11:36am 1603146996

We'll see what the stats show a few months from now. I think it's a bit early to compare this Summer season with the previous year's.

by Flying high | 19th Oct 20, 4:46pm 1603079161

slumlord bs label although given half the chance i am sure that's what you would be

by lowercase capitalist | 19th Oct 20, 2:59pm 1603072741

Mortgages have become around 30% cheaper this year. It's going to take a while for rent drops to counteract that.

by CourtJester | 19th Oct 20, 3:10pm 1603073410

You mean interest only mortgages

by b21 | 19th Oct 20, 3:30pm 1603074641

This is not how mortgages work, the drop in interest rate does not translate directly into the real interest being paid, especially when asset prices have become more expensive. For instance for a drop from 3% to 2% the savings in a 30y mortgage would be about 17% so about half of what you expected. If you take into account the mortgage would need to be larger than a year ago most of this would wash away in many regions. Here's a figure that depicts what I mean:

https://i.postimg.cc/LsFHZwbT/real-interest.png

by Yvil | 19th Oct 20, 2:22pm 1603070531

"Work visa numbers down 10% on a year ago"

Sorry Greg but I think this headline is misleading, you state yourself (to my surprise) that there are actually more people on work visa in NZ now than a year ago, see below.

"That was down by 21,696 (-9.8%) compared to the March peak of 221,205, but still ahead of the 196,995 people that were in the country on work visas in September last year"

by Greg Ninness | 19th Oct 20, 5:00pm 1603080007

Thanks Yvil. Well spotted.

by company of heroes | 20th Oct 20, 10:38am 1603143528

Relax, Yvil. No need to worry too much about it. We know this, no need to emphasize it. I don't think the headline is misleading. "Work visa numbers down 10% from March peak" It did say "from March peak" which is true and people are expecting this as the border is closed. It's what is going to happen in future matters more.

by Yvil | 20th Oct 20, 1:01pm 1603152096

coh, the headline said "down 10% from a year ago" until my post. Greg changed it to "down 10% from the March peak" after my post, which he acknowledged

by Yvil | 19th Oct 20, 2:25pm 1603070724

I'm very surprised there are more people on work visas now than a year ago

by CourtJester | 19th Oct 20, 2:37pm 1603071432

"The drop in the number of people in the country on work visas would have been greater except there has been a dramatic reduction in the number of people on work visas leaving the country, which declined from 13,362 in September last year to 4938 in September this year."

If I remember correctly, expiring work visas were extended so many didn't have to leave.
(more info here: https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/covid-19/coronavirus-update-in… )

Also, normally the number of work visas would be up YoY every year by many thousands (see graph here: https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public… ), now it's up only 2500-ish.

by K.W. | 19th Oct 20, 2:36pm 1603071387

You shouldnt be. Labour presided over record levels of immigration in 2019/early 2020.

by sharetrader | 19th Oct 20, 2:39pm 1603071540

why, those on study move to work to residency , that has been the pathway for the last 20 years.
i would be more surprised if the study ones increased.

by Advisor | 19th Oct 20, 3:34pm 1603074879

The current government, like its predecessors, are well-aware of the poor quality our international education sector offers.

It explains the number of carrots INZ needs to dangle for international students to choose NZ: working rights on student visa, automatic work visa upon graduation, extra points towards residency for NZ qualifications and we're now planning to market ourselves as a Covid-free country.

by nz-it-worker | 19th Oct 20, 2:51pm 1603072276

Juggling a marriage, an affair and a portfolio is a lot of work. Something had to give.

by KH | 19th Oct 20, 6:17pm 1603084640

Is the foreign student industry a fraud? Maybe it costs us.
Are our taxpayer funded institutions using taxpayer resources, which they sell off to grab a little extra cashflow?

by b21 | 19th Oct 20, 4:17pm 1603077470

As an industry I would say not, as an education system definitely.

by custard | 19th Oct 20, 4:45pm 1603079114

This site will tie in with some of Greg’s numbers and provide further clarity.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/experimental/covid-19-data-portal

Select category "Visa".

Those on working holidays are heading back but otherwise there’s no rush for the door – many may well simply refuse to leave - what a mess.