Auction results suggest demand for residential properties may be exceeding supply in the BOP

Property

The number of properties sold at auction in the Bay of Plenty has almost doubled in the last 12 months

8th Nov 20, 10:03am by Greg Ninness

There has been a big jump in the number of properties being sold at auction in the Bay of Plenty over the last 12 months.

Over the two weeks from October 24 to November 6, interest.co.nz monitored 54 properties auctioned by Bayleys Real Estate and Eves Real Estate in the Bay of Plenty.

That was a significant increase from the 44 properties auctioned by the same agencies over the first two weeks of March (February 29 - March 13), which was at the height of the peak summer season and just before the Level 4 lockdown sharply curtailed real estate activity.

But it was almost unchanged from the 55 properties auctioned by the same agencies in the equivalent weeks of last year (October 26 - November 8).

However while the number of properties being auctioned might not have changed over the last 12 months, there have been big changes in the number of properties being sold at auction.

Of the 55 properties auctioned in the two weeks from October 26 to November 8 last year, 20 were sold, giving a sales rate of 36%.

Over the two weeks from February 29 to March 13 this year, 22 of the 44 auctioned properties were sold, giving a sales rate of exactly 50%.

In the latest period, from October 29 to November 6 this year, 36 of the 54 auctioned properties were sold, giving a sales rate of 67%.

So over the last 12 months the auction sales rate has increased from just over a third, to exactly half at the peak of last summer's selling season, to two-thirds now.

Selling prices also appear to have firmed over the same period.

In the two weeks from October 26 to November 8 last year, 76% of the properties sold at the Bay of Plenty auctions monitored by interest.co.nz achieved prices that were higher than their rating valuations.

That figure climbed to 81% in the two weeks from February 29 to March 3 this year, and then hit 97% in the two weeks from October 29 to November 6 this year.

Those trends of relatively flat numbers of properties being brought to auction while sales ratios and prices are pushing higher, suggest the number of properties coming to market could be a problem in the Bay of Plenty, with demand exceeding supply.

That's potentially good news for vendors, but could put buyers under pressure to secure the property they want.

Details of the individual properties at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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24 Comments

by linklater01 | 8th Nov 20, 10:21am 1604784107

Well, that's good news for the rental property I have had in Mount Maunganui for over 20 years. I have no intention of selling it, but rather crawl over broken glass than hand it to any of these vastly overpaid and averagely competent agents if I ever did decide to do so.
In time, technology will sweep them into the dustbin of history and the sooner the better.

by PatrickW | 8th Nov 20, 10:51am 1604785917

Hahahaha......best comment I have heard on this site in months.

by tothepoint - d… | 8th Nov 20, 1:23pm 1604795031

Given that we're on the cusp of summer, Mt Maunganui prices seem likely to surge higher.

TTP

by stuart786786 | 8th Nov 20, 10:56am 1604786204

Agree will soon have website, where private home owners can even do auctions with a small fee unless RE industry changes with time and reduce the commission which has doubled or tripled in value (not percentage).

In current market situation, it does not matter much who the RE agent is as buyers are fighting over each other so why pay $300000 plus from your profit.

by Flying high | 8th Nov 20, 12:50pm 1604793006

developers are going direct to homeowners now to cut out the agent but also score properties far below their market price. RHF previously encouraged his devotees to do similar and we know how that ended.

by HW2 | 8th Nov 20, 1:22pm 1604794943

So you would sell privately one day... it's not worth the risk

by Zachary Smith | 9th Nov 20, 7:56am 1604861801

Agents are hardly overpaid. maybe some of the top players but most eek out a fairly modest existence. They don't get the whole commission as the agency gets a large chunk and there is actually quite a lot of work to do if you want to be modestly successful. The agency needs income to run professionally. There are risks too with no time limits set on infractions of what can be quite complicated rules. I would never consider not using an agent.

You would think there would be room for someone to undercut agents but all attempts so far have led to failure which tells you something.

by Carlos67 | 8th Nov 20, 12:00pm 1604790028

Yeah I'm a recent buyer in BOP. Bought in the calm before the storm only weeks ago. Real Estate agent did a great job for the sellers would have missed it otherwise. Sorry to disagree but a decent agent is worth the money.

by Flying high | 8th Nov 20, 12:52pm 1604793143

we sold recently and bought again on same market. The keen agent went above and beyond and we have over one million reasons to thank her

by Andrewj | 8th Nov 20, 12:20pm 1604791206

I talked to friend in Hawkes bay, Havelock, he put two properties on the market last week, got swamped with offers from desperate people and promptly took them off the market, wise move.

by Flying high | 8th Nov 20, 1:17pm 1604794674

best time to sell is during a frenzy, more satisfying than eeking out a protracted sale.

by Carlos67 | 9th Nov 20, 7:30pm 1604903418

That's probably the most stupid thing I have heard this year unless the offers were all crazy low.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Nov 20, 8:20am 1604949616

I think it may be the same friend that was selling all his property because house prices are never going to go up ever again.

by Zack Brando | 8th Nov 20, 2:17pm 1604798229

I heard the Social Housing Waiting List is at 26,000 applicants now.

The media/Ministry is reporting it at just 20,000.

Can anyone confirm the 26,000 number? Reporters? Investigative journalists?

by HW2 | 8th Nov 20, 1:11pm 1604794280

Number of Tauranga properties listed for sale on Trademe: 676
Compares to 1008 July 2020 and 1045 Oct 2019. Over 30 percent drop. Number of homes for rent is down 20 percent from last year so there are some clear challenges all around. It is time to pull your finger Jacinda and Megan, you have no excuse

by bw | 8th Nov 20, 2:57pm 1604800668

No argument there.
Friends who live in an inner suburb (Otumoetai) have homeless people living in a car parked on the street, and apparently, they can't be 'moved on' because the car isn't abandoned and isn't parked in a 'No Parking' zone.
This is what we have created. Whilst there have always been homeless people, I can't say I've seen as many shop fronts ' tenanted' with the destitute at night and more as each day passes.
We should be so proud of ourselves.

by Carlos67 | 9th Nov 20, 7:33pm 1604903586

Yeah pointed that out a week or so ago. Saw Tauranga peak at nearly 1100 then it just crashed. The only problem now is getting a house removal truck to help you move they are all flat out.

by Zachary Smith | 8th Nov 20, 1:29pm 1604795395

The frenzy is understandable in a way. Many people will have held off buying hoping that prices would go down. This was even before the lockdown. Then the lockdown happened and first time buyers hopes were raised that some sort of housing crash was inevitable. Even spruikers thought so.

Then the significant dropping of interest rates occurred and possibly the pent up demand came into the market after the lockdown. Overseas travel seemed off the radar and many people had built up quite a lot in their KiwiSaver.

Anyone who could have bought but instead held off hoping for a price drop was now in quite an awkward position, kicking themselves for not having bought sooner. FOMO would be setting in big time. One would be in a far better position to have large debt than to have cash in the bank. Especially prior to this new hot phase of the market.

I rearranged my investments a bit last year, reducing my debt level and increasing my equity in property and oh what a big mistake that was. Far better to be millions in debt but holding property than to have cash in the bank or even equity in property. In fact it's been like this for quite a while in Auckland and other places around NZ. This would be especially true in a declining mortgage interest rate environment.

by Zack Brando | 8th Nov 20, 2:05pm 1604797549

Everything you said above is reasonable. I'm interested in price-and-sale action towards the end of July 2021.

Things to Watch:
- LTV Restrictions
- Mortgage Deferrals
- Unemployment Figures
- Net Migration
- Development Completions
- Building Consent Levels
- Mortgagee Sale Rates
- OCR (in relation to savers)
- RMA Reform

I said not to be surprised if house prices dip10%-20% (in some places) and rebounded towards the end of (September I think) 2020. I MUST SAY, I am surprised by the year-to-date prices increase! lol. :)

by bw | 8th Nov 20, 3:31pm 1604802705

Mauldin has an interesting view his week:

The "inability to predict recessions is a ubiquitous feature of growth forecasts." Most economists were not even able to recognize recessions once they had already started.
In plain English, economists don't have a clue about the future.

So your list of variables should tell us how precariously we stand on the edge of this 'boom'.

by Northern Lights | 8th Nov 20, 4:14pm 1604805288

LTV Restrictions - possibly for investors. However pressure from first home buyers, overseas investors with relatives in New Zealand and returning Kiwis will not stop. One pool of buyers will replace the other. It should be pointed out that investors are buying other things like forests and commercial properties also. It's all about the new low worldwide interest rates. Auckland, Waikato, Miami, Seattle, London, China, it's happening everywhere.

Unemployment Figures - the real economy has sagged already in the affected sectors. People who have kept their jobs are the ones who are buying houses. Construction, Infrastructure and Residential building is the main option to soak up unemployment. If there is increased spending on infrastructure then further unemployment effects will be limited.

Development Completions - will not see a major increase because the reasons why councils go so slowly have not changed. The councils are the ones who have to pay for subdivision infrastructure and associated effects so their natural inclination is to drag the chain. Until central govt starts paying for some of the actual costs of the actual infrastructure nothing will change.
An engineer pointed out to me that there was a new subdivision going in that we were driving past and that not only would the sewage for the new subdivision be needed but increased capacity/new pipes to the subdivision through all the existing suburbs before that one. So I guess councils look more favourably on applications that won't increase the council's financial burden. Or they would if councils were logical organisations.

RMA reform will be an absolute dog's breakfast and slow the process still further for small developers, while larger developers who can afford to pay the increased costs of consultation with iwi for any environmental ok required as part of the new process will also have to readjust their profitability calculations based on council land taxes. The taxes at a local level similar to the proposals being aired by the Auckland City Council for increased rates on undeveloped land.

I can't see a dip in prices in 2021 if there is a fiscal stimulus package passed in the US to fight the economic impact of Covid 19 which will be financed by bond issuance by the US Federal Reserve. This is another wave of lower priced liquidity to come.

I think that it is more likely that many residential households in wealthier parts of Auckland will not like the way that their neighbourhoods are intensifying and the way that the rates/land tax burden on them is increasing. I think that many older residents will leave for the Waikato/BOP/North of Auckland leaving opportunities for wealthy double income professionals who will be able to afford the new rates/de facto land taxes to buy in - but not at cheaper prices.

US Federal Reserve interest rates are intended by the US Reserve Bank Governor to be low for years to come, and that is all you need to know. Asset prices everywhere in the world are resetting. How things develop at a local level will depend on choices local govts make. Whether they will favour importers over exporters. Lower asset prices over employment. Fiscal prudence over growth.

There must be a lag or the timing of the cycle where the rate of increase slows down but I don't think that necessarily translates to a drop in prices.

by Zack Brando | 8th Nov 20, 7:41pm 1604817675

We'll just have to keep watching .. there is such a thing as Buyers Exhaustion in a market. I'm in Christchurch, house prices here seem to be increasing .. all be it slowly.

If I came across a house I liked here, at an acceptable price - I'd consider buying it. It's good to have a range of assets/investments. Houses are expensive to run though; rates, insurance, repairs, gardening, etc. Here (in ChCh) it's looking cheaper to buy than rent, IF you DON'T take into account capital tied up.

Still having somewhere nice to live is so0ooOOoo important for one's Zen when navigating the "Great Material Continuum".

by Flying high | 9th Nov 20, 8:05am 1604862311

"If I came across a house I liked here, at an acceptable price - I'd consider buying it."

How long have you been looking for one.

by Zack Brando | 9th Nov 20, 11:24am 1604874280

I rent and own other assets. I check online occasionally at the latest listings, but really, ChCh isn't that great.

The houses, weather and social life here are pretty shocking. Crime and drug use is getting out-of-control down here too. Perth is definitely a better option if I was to buy. You can work from anywhere with the internet these days.