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Hot start to 2021 for Barfoot & Thompson with a surge in sales and new listings

Hot start to 2021 for Barfoot & Thompson with a surge in sales and new listings

Barfoot & Thompson had a scorching start to 2021, selling 60% more homes in January than it did in January 2020.

The agency sold 1086 homes in January, up 408 from 678 in the same month last year.

"This January was the most active January we have experienced as an agency for 17 years," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.

"Even during the height of the last property cycle we never came close to selling this many homes in a January."

The hectic activity was helped by a surge of new listings, with the agency receiving 1378 residential listings in January, up 28% compared to January last year and the highest number for the month of January in eight years.

However the total number of listings the agency had on its books at the end of January (3131) was down 11% compared to January last year (3537), but ahead of December last year (2938).

It was the lowest level of stock the agency has had at the end of January since 2016, meaning the supply of homes for sale remains tight.

The average and median prices of the properties sold in January both eased back from the record highs set in December, albeit both were higher than in any previous month except December.

January's average selling price of $1,068,134 was down from $1,092,518 in December.

January's median price of $975,000 was down $30,555 from December's record of $1,005,000.

"The average and median prices invariably dip between January and December given the absence of many high-end buyers from the market over the holiday season, and it is not until March that high-end property sales again start to have a greater influence on sales data," Peter Thompson said.

"The strong sales numbers in January have set the market up for an active first quarter's trading."

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71 Comments

The original GameStop

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"The most active" insert month "we have experienced as an agency for 17 years," 

How many more times will we hear that phrase this year

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1 or 2 more times.

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Waiting for the DGM to show up here pleading that the housing market actually collapsed in January.......

TTP

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Another informed, analytical, illuminating and erudite contribution

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Have you noticed how the contributors to MikeKirk29 work the dictionary but still cannot make sense

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"Contributors to?"
I do to need a dictionary, I have a vocabulary

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So did you pay back the wage subsidy?

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So much for all the talk of a recession, depression. You really need to thank the unsung hero of this econmic boom. Thank you Covid-19, please linger around for many many years, you're making a lot of people wealthy and happy.

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But more people debt slaves, with future wealth prospects snuffed out. We’ve sold out future generations livelihoods for short term greed. Disgusting.

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Debt for an appreciating asset is wonderful and the greatest way to create wealth

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Only if you can afford to pay it back.

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You don't need to pay it back, are you simple?

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No need to be condescending...I guess we’ll see how quick the over-leveraged start to struggle when interest rates start rising (as predicted by the BNZ economists as early as next year).

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My default setting is acerbic sorry, don't take it personally. I wouldn't pay much attention to the BNZ however, they are wrong more often the right.

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Yvil - Why are you mortgage free if debt is wonderful?

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He is putting all his coins together for a next home

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Not sure how serious your comment is. You know damn well what would've happened without the wage subsidies and insane money printing.

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Bugger, it's not "thanks to Covid" it's thanks to the RBNZ' response to Covid

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1068 homes.
Er, how many were not in fact "homes" ie not built yet, ie off the plan??
We are never told. Surely they know?

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Average and median price dips probably due to selling more stuff that is cheaper - ie stuff off plan, ie land, not houses. Why don't they just admit it.

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I don’t understand your point. Are you saying the market is weaker or stronger than implied?

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"Market" is buyers and sellers.
My point is that the group of buyers that is expanding s investors who are buying anything they can get on leverage to allow the inflation that is coming to erode debt whilst RBNZ is bogging itself re upsetting folk by raising rates for 2-4 years. One way bet. Except they are buying loads of off plan stuff where price is set. if prices then decline, they are buying a liability

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If it's land for development, it should be more expensive. I've heard quite a few stories that sellers are working with their neighbors to sell houses together to developers. They can have more capital gains by doing this.

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yes but what I am pointing to is sections on already consented land, that sell for $350 - 550k each, whilst median for a 4 bed house in Rodney is over $1m

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Median price for BT sales was $846.5k in January 2017.
It is now $975k. Up 15% in 4 years.
And inflation in those 4 years was?
Does not sound as sexy does it, as for last 5m.
Does anyone now still believe that rates will go down further to goose market some more?
With unemployment down and growth up and inflation rising?
Game over. now for some reality

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I've seen this clearly on one roof (Assuming the data is legit) Searching averages for say 3 or 4 bed homes, for individual suburbs in Auckland over the last 5 years. One year up. Next year's down, only the back end of 2020 pushing up to record highs, but again as you say, not that much really compared to a five year average.

More to the point, this is all during a period of lowering rates (and recently) with the money printer set to overdrive. Mortgage hols etc.

There is nothing fundamentally strong about it.

Inflation all round the world is kicking in.

Personally I think prices will drop from here or stagnate even if they keep rates Flat, there is only soo much debt two working individuals can take on.

Unless we do something stupid like ubi or -ve rates. Party is up. I mean it was up in 2019 prior to the cv19 suger rush.

What would be interesting, is to explore all this recent landlord activity and the buyers profile. Boomers starting to downsize? Landlords with big portfolios? 1st time rental investment? Etc.

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It's quite likely, given economic cycles, that we will have a financial crisis in the next 2 years. Then the OCR will go negative, and we will get another mini housing boom.

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Fluffybunny - Great name I love it , You're dreaming mate it's all up from here and if inflation kicks in even better for holders of property !

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I'm not sure this is dreaming. Happy for some light banter but I seek data and analysis. I only really come here to see the links that people post, but sure lets dance. You seem like a nice sort =/

I also think its a bit more situational than just inflation = good. Everyone here are obviously on various differing investment journeys.

I also appreciate we have a strong bull culture re housing. Boomers & the RE industry will give up these high prices kicking and screaming. But personally from the trends I can see with data available, I think that housing in NZ is only really correlated to the interest cost.

Also the development banking tech systems over the last 15 years (allowing for better risk mgmt = safer lends) No one talks about this.

Kiwi households are running at max debt in my opinion. I think we maxed out 2-3 years ago and are now waiting for that much anticipated inflation to give our incomes a collective kick forwards (still waiting...)

Like historically sure a handful of other developed countries have gone further (in terms of avg income household debt) but not many. And there are plenty of others that have gone this far and come back down in a big way. Not saying a crash is imminent, I just don't see where the house asset growth comes from now. Unless we introduce -ve rates etc? We have no real options (desire I would say now) to take on more debt?

But we have full employment, lots of free cash being spent (globally). Bond yields already heading this direction (I think?) US looking to raise rates (they tried in 2019).

Inflationary pressure = interest rate hikes, not decreases.

And if there is this correlation, then interest rate hikes = house price downwards pressure. 1-3% wage inflation won't save it. 1-3% interest rates won't cut it either (compared to a yield based portfolio).

Also noting that supply is catching up to pre-covid population increases. I think the CHCH build overdrive post EQ shows what happens when we dump housing stock into an area (good luck getting cap gains there).

Yeah personally I see a lot of risk here.... this is not fundamentally strong.

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Above price graph shows NEGATIVE or nil price increases from 30th June 2017 to 31.12.19

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So ??? What's your point ? Why do you pick a time frame between 3 1/2 and 1 year back from today?

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Pretty simple really: prices are NOT always rising and its not linear. Which is precisely what you and your clan are always implying or claiming.
Point is precisely that the article and you and your ilk NEVER expand the time frame but only look at the last 5m, which is a mania induced by massive printing and fiscal expansion plus rate cuts.. Things run in cycles. Interest rates have bene falling since 2009 basically. Now they won't fall anymore. So the cycle will turn.

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"Point is precisely that the article and you and your ilk NEVER expand the time frame but only look at the last 5m"
Go easy on the weed Mike, your statement above is as wrong as it is ridiculous.
I always have a long term view with property and it's done pretty well for the 10 years, the last 20 years& the last 30 years

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He's posting Data, not weed.

Personally I prefer weed but 50% of you retards buggered that one up didn't you??

There is a real global debt issue.

Google fed money supply. Or nz income to household debt. Really its astronomical the hole we are digging.

Plus the changes coming from our climate change response? There are a ton of potential risk factors out there.

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.

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Investors who are leveraging are doing a nice calculation: let the inflation pay it off.
They know inflation will go to 5-6% whist rates will not be raised as RBNZ terrified of upsetting the Ponzi
So, rates will in effect be negative for 2-4 years whilst inflation erodes the fixed debt.
Meanwhile numbers of existing OO choosing to move is minuscule.

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There will be riots if that happens. They are mandated to keep inflation in a band.

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Inflation has been below the band for a decade, they can quite easily defend above the band inflation.

There is of course inflation in needs and deflation in wants. There is no wage inflation to speak of and it is only house prices and QE preventing us from a deflationary spiral - which is why it's not stopping anytime soon.

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Inflation has not been below 1 - 3% for a decade. Patently untrue.

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duh, yes it has.... I should have said it hasn't been above the middle of the band on average for a decade, which is correctish.

Annualised CPI was below 1% for much of the period between 2012 and 2016.

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.

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Ha... I see in the not so distant future, the RBNZ saying "we are looking through this short term inflation....." and the mandate gets changed

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Jay Powell in US already doing this. Happy to let inflation run hot above mandate, he says.

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There we go, one day later, ASB is forecasting RB will do PRECISELY that

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To me it feels like prices in the lower end seem to be getting closer to the median, without much movement in the upper end. Every mouldy cottage is now 'worth' $1 million+, but you can get a nice 4br house for $1.3 million in a nice area. A direct effect of lending practices - FHB's stretching themselves to get the maximum amount they can possibly borrow (kiwisaver, gifts from relatives, 'loan' from mom & dad) just to "get on the ladder" (god how much I hate that expression). Govt & RBNZ pretty much guaranteeing future price increases, media full of stories about how houses made 2-3x the average salary per year... I wonder where this leads. What kind of society are we building here, where the rewards for actual work are tiny compared to 'investing'?

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April 2015 the OCR was 3.5%
March 19 it was 1.75%
Sept 19 it was 1%
March 2020 it was 0.25%

May 2020 to date they have had QE and rate cuts and fiscal expansion.
More money entering bloodstream of NZ economy than since 2007.
Hardly surprising that asset inflation took off.
Anyone going to punt on negative official rate now?
Of course real rate is already negative.

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They can always find new financial tricks to goose asset values. These w*nkers have no moral compass.

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Not when the rest of the world starts to raise rates.

There is only soo much debt a working couple can take on.

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Yep negative ocr within 2 years. Once the next financial crisis arrives.

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"'The average and median prices invariably dip between January and December given the absence of many high-end buyers from the market over the holiday season, and it is not until March that high-end property sales again start to have a greater influence on sales data,' Peter Thompson said."
lol, I had to admit that it's pretty impressive to see they always can find excuses to justify price dips. I bet, by March or April, if the price is still flat, they will probably say it's because we are getting to a winter season, property market wont be as active as summer.

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They also keep bragging about their wonderful new listing figures.
Rodney houses and townhouses RE NZ n January 1st were 525.
Yesterday it was 549.
Now, I can see that this may be because turnover (sales) are so fast.
However, the Rodney listings of same category 31st January 2020 was: 744
That is a drop of 26%

Now, as I have written previously, the inventory sitting on RE NZ for months on end has disappeared.
Most of that was bare land and had sat there, in some cases for over 2 years.
Someone is buying all that stuff, which is why inventory has dropped off a cliff.
But it is also apparent that OO are NOT selling in anywhere near the numbers that they were a year ago.

So, it would be immensely informative if BT and others could tell us what proportion of their sales are existing OO and how many are bare land please

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How many cups of coffee did you have this morning?

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Ha. I don't need it!

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So much for unlucky numbers.
13 Von Sturmer Street, Mangere East CV $610k sold at Auction $1.131m. Double wow!

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What a gem!
Attention all FHB's, THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO BUY! This amazing investment could have been yours! Stop wasting time!

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Tenanted for a whole $510 a week. 703sqm section. Mangere East.

Greater fool theory?

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No its the "If you can't beat them, join them" theory.

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Out of touch pricing and rents will lead to the "if you can't join them, beat them with clubs" theory. I hope that pricing starts coming back to reality and flattens out soon but I doubt it

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All about the development potential under the Unitary plan.

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700 squares flat subdivide-able section in a gentrifieable area 20kms from the CBD in one of the best cities in the world I think it’s not bad

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Enough is enough. While I acknowledge the current government has done well managing and mitigating COVID-19, I feel they have done an unmitigatingly appalling job towards their pledge of tackling housing affordability. So many questions and bug all answers. Why are they so unwillingly to tackle issue? Why the change of heart? Why the lack of urgency? Why aren't more people holding this government to account over this matter and grilling them? Is there an interest group one can join to press this issue? Surely with the amount of energy, we must be able to do... something?

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Come back in September 2023. The only pressure point time that seems to matter and even then we just get promises that won’t be kept.

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My thoughts exactly. The Govt seem to be content to sit on the sidelines and do NOTHING.

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I guess the 3% commission is well earned.

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CWBW... does that sound like a fair transfer of wealth that society should accept and be happy about. Over $30 000 taken from a family in Mangere and half given to a RE agency (with excessively rich owners) and the other 15K given to an agent to compensate them for their several hours of hard work? Have we lost our Kiwi sense of values and fair play?

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There was a little city called Auckland .......

Where house prices were just awesome !

Until one day when interest rates rose

And everyone got smacked in the nose.

So don't forget that large principal folks

As on rising interest rates those repayments can stoke ...

Up to the moon on a clear night ...

Not a banker to help in sight ....

But in the meantime listen to the MSM

They have "your" best interests at heart ...

So much so, your a mortgage serf for life ...

Working forever along with your wife ....

Oh what bliss !

Time to crack open a can of piss

Well , it is 5.15pm after all :)

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Owner or renter?

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At risk of some red-necked bullies on here who don't work and sit around getting their rocks off on others struggles. I know a couple who both work and care for their disabled child, and were looking to upgrade to a larger home as they desperately need a house more space now that their child is becoming bigger but no less rambunctious (they own their home). Since the pandemic ponzi they have been shut of the market. If things don't turn around soon in the housing market, PM Kachinga she is going to go down in history as our worse PM ever

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You know a couple do you...

I have sympathy for your story but the fact is that the majority of people are property owners and like it or not that is the lifeblood of the NZ economy so will be protected at all costs.

The renting minority are not priority and never will be it’s irrational to expect policies to be their favour.

I know they own their own home but it’s all linked

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LordD..You may be right but that should never stop us hoping and pushing for change in the name of fairness and an inclusive society.

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