Net migration gain plummets to 6600 in March year compared to 91,900 in previous 12 months

Property

Net gain of NZ citizens and net loss of non-New Zealand citizens in the year to March, Statistics NZ says

17th May 21, 11:43am by Greg Ninness

New Zealand had its biggest ever annual decline in migration driven population growth in the 12 months to the end of March, with the net gain sliding to 6562, according to Statistics NZ.

That compares to a net gain of 91,939 in the year to March 2020, which was a record high.

The March 2021 year net gain of 6562 comprised 36,383 permanent or long-term arrivals, less 29,820 permanent or long-term departures.

That was the lowest number of annual arrivals since 1986 and the lowest number of annual departures since 1969.

The 36,383 arrivals were made up of 23,329 returning New Zealand citizens and 13,054 non-New Zealand citizens.

The 29,820 departures were made up of 7829 New Zealand citizens and 21,991 non-New Zealand citizens.

That gave a net gain of 15,500 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 8938 non-New Zealand citizens for the year.

Of the 13,054 non-New Zealand citizens who arrived in the March year, the biggest group of 1584 were from India (compared to 19,860 in the year to March 2020), closely followed by the UK 1580 (10,616 in year to March 2020), China 1502 (14,084 in 2020), Australia 1320 (7628 in 2020) and the USA 1217 (5210 in 2020).

There was also a huge drop in migrant arrivals from South Africa, which fell from 12,635 in the year to March 2020 to 850 in the year to March 2021, and the Philippines, which dropped to 679 from 10,593 over the same period.

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Net long term migration

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Source: Statistics NZ

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80 Comments

by Mrs The Point | 17th May 21, 11:47am 1621208879

How do we spin this? Labour keeping its election promise to reduce immigration. It is the first promise they have (unintentionally) delivered on.

by frazz | 17th May 21, 12:03pm 1621209835

You mean how do we spin this to be bad news...read on I am sure you wont be disappointed

by custard | 17th May 21, 1:12pm 1621213933

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/destiny-churchs-hannah-tamaki-calls-for-b…

Perhaps Hannah Tamaki has been quietly exerting a degree of influence throughout the corridors of power over the last year or so – numbers-wise she seems pretty close to the mark now.

Nov 2019 - “Earlier this year, Tamaki called for migration to be cut down to 2000 people annually, in an interview during which she said she didn't know what the number of net migrants was.”

by Foxglove. | 17th May 21, 12:15pm 1621210527

Nice news, nice trend. Listen to the people and keep it going.

by HouseMouse | 17th May 21, 2:09pm 1621217367

Until covid they were failing miserably.

by ikimpaul | 17th May 21, 11:50am 1621209017

So less than 1.5% of expat kiwis returned home over the last 12months.

What happened to the 1/2 million kiwis who were planning to return home according to a one news poll held in Nov 2020?

by realterms | 17th May 21, 12:08pm 1621210085

You may have noticed that MIQ capacity is limited.

by Groat | 18th May 21, 8:10am 1621282208

You may have noticed all the spare capacity now not being used.

by dago | 17th May 21, 12:17pm 1621210646

one look at NZ house prices and the latest wage freeze and they cancelled their tickets

by Matt_B | 17th May 21, 1:02pm 1621213345

Some that have came back will be planning on exiting as they rest of the world start reopening more, if not already gone.

by Spiceeh | 17th May 21, 3:32pm 1621222360

Some of us are still planning and finalising for our move.

by custard | 17th May 21, 11:53am 1621209206

A net gain of 92,000 in the year to March 2020 – I simply cannot fathom what on earth people with the levers were thinking.

Who in government thought this was a good idea – please stand up so your fine efforts can be acknowledged.

by Penfold | 17th May 21, 12:31pm 1621211519

I was going to give them some benefit of the doubt and assume they were aiming for recent normal (but still too high) 60k net migration , but the pre-covid surge in Feb/March pushed them 20k to 30k over expectations.

But, looking at graph, the surge actually started from about Oct 2019 which was already 10k over recent norms.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/migration?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIg-_D_LnP8A…

Hmmm, I need to re-calibrate my assumptions on their competency and integrity.

by Matt_B | 17th May 21, 12:49pm 1621212540

Labours 2017 election promise was to lower it to ~40k per year. They started to reduce it, but for some unknown reason they let it run away in 2019 and let the flood gates open.
updated to provide a link. Can not see on Labour website anymore. So was to cut from ~70k down to `40k.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/06/labour-confirms-plans-t…

by custard | 17th May 21, 12:39pm 1621211997

You’re being much too kind.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/labour-wins-on-immigration

October 2017 - “Prime Minister-designate Jacinda Ardern was firm last week in stating Labour would be sticking with its own immigration plan of reducing net migration by 20,000 to 30,000, and repeated it in the announcement of Labour's deal with New Zealand First”

The graph covering the last 18 months or so prior to Mar 2020 is horrific.

I wonder if Ardern understands the not particularly subtle difference between “reducing” and “increasing”.

Annual Net Migration: October 2017 - 55,353 March 2020 - 91,939

by Foxglove. | 17th May 21, 1:07pm 1621213668

Quite extraordinary behaviour actually. Guess though if it takes the house across the street to sell to alert you to sky rocketing prices, then probably ditto for immigration, ie people living in caravans across the street. Think our PM might actually be a bit naff?

by Spiceeh | 17th May 21, 3:34pm 1621222485

Wasn't Oct 2019 when Covid was actually first recorded?

by WestieAJ | 17th May 21, 1:03pm 1621213416

Anyone with with property to rent or land to sell or develop. The majority of members on both sides of the house would be standing to attention

by kiwiwayne | 17th May 21, 2:12pm 1621217571

I recall Labour campaigned on slashing immigration numbers....92,000 12 months to March! What would these numbers be today without covid? I'm certain no where near the 12,000 they were promising. Delivery by luck not good management!

by Thinker | 17th May 21, 11:57am 1621209444

God thats refreshing to see. Only Highly skilled, key critical shortage workers (tradies, Doctors, Nurses) and RSE workers please. Another few years like that, that Housing Shortage is going to dissapate

by Mrs The Point | 17th May 21, 12:56pm 1621213004

What about Baristas, Taxi drivers, Retail Managers?

by custard | 17th May 21, 1:02pm 1621213323

Essential workers you mean?

by Lapun | 17th May 21, 2:34pm 1621218849

What does 'long-term' mean? I thought it applied to anyone staying over a year so RSE fruit pickers are not included - being lumped with tourists as temporary visitors whereas the popular work visa which used to be a choice of 12 or 23 months max meant some were counted and other were not.

Why do you consider tradies as highly skilled but not managers of liquor shops? OK I know of specialised gas fitters earning over $200k. But no need to define skilled as anything other than well paid. Trying to identify 'skilled' from 'unskilled' is a joke - just ask anyone who like myself arrived as a skilled computer professional. If they are good then they are well paid (pity the reverse isn't true).

by Kauri | 17th May 21, 12:00pm 1621209616

So a net gain of almost 100,000pa over the past 2 years. Still huge numbers.

by jstockman2 | 17th May 21, 12:08pm 1621210116

Quick Mr Orr, reduce the OCR further to keep the housing ponzi going! We cant have demand dry up, ever!

by Carlos67 | 17th May 21, 12:25pm 1621211132

Its not going to dry up though is it. We still have a net positive flow in people returning and from what I'm told they are all LOADED so the housing party just continues for a year or even two and then the boarders reopen and the masses start flooding in and then guess what ? What this government needs to be doing RIGHT NOW is formulating a public announcement on future immigration. The numbers and the skills needed to be broadcast right now so there are no surprises. If its 10,000 PA then they need to stick to the numbers. This is not like building 10,000 new houses, this is easy. Stop people coming here the country is full.

by DTRH | 17th May 21, 12:09pm 1621210140

90000 is 2% of population of nz crazy stuff. If US did the same amount that would be 6.5 million net migration

by Advisor | 17th May 21, 1:36pm 1621215370

If we were to riot against such politically-driven destruction of the middle class in NZ like the Americans do, we wouldn't have such troubles.

by Lapun | 17th May 21, 2:35pm 1621218929

Exclude kids and pensioners and it is worse than that.

by Let me be Frank | 17th May 21, 12:30pm 1621211443

So the spruiking has been shown to be the lie it always was. Returning kiwis wernt driving property inflation as widely espoused by those seeking to perpetuate the ponzi.
The sooner the public wake up to the fact they are part of a psychological experiment the better for all.

by npc | 17th May 21, 12:34pm 1621211642

Given that we don't have sufficient infrastructure or accomodation, even this is too many.

Unfortunate as industry is crying out for skilled migrants.

by Davo3636 | 17th May 21, 1:47pm 1621216034

They're also crying out for low skilled people. Because if they don't get them, they have to like, pay decent wages and stuff.

by npc | 17th May 21, 2:11pm 1621217468

.... which would expose real inflation.

by dago | 17th May 21, 4:01pm 1621224103

anything but real inflation!

by Lapun | 17th May 21, 2:36pm 1621218976

And start training.

by Burni | 17th May 21, 12:45pm 1621212312

And the brain drain starts

by Matt_B | 17th May 21, 12:54pm 1621212859

Sure has, a guy in his early 30's resigned last week at my work (just on a 6 figure salary).
Can not see justifying spending money on a house in NZ long term.
He off to OZ.

by northman46 | 17th May 21, 1:10pm 1621213856

Yeah we've already had a couple of people quit. Skilled and well paid. All to Aus so far.

by theglc | 17th May 21, 2:20pm 1621218017

to be fair there have probably been a number of young kiwis that wanted to head to Oz but havnt due to the covid situation and now the situation has improved and we have the bubble, nice time to go.

by northman46 | 17th May 21, 2:35pm 1621218942

Yep, absolutely, but these people weren't Kiwis. They were here from the skilled catagory.

by Li quid | 17th May 21, 3:22pm 1621221775

I'm the same, board the plane in a couple of weeks. 1 way ticket.

by redcows1 | 17th May 21, 1:37pm 1621215448

I understand a fair portion of the soon to be made redundant mill workers in whakatane have literally booked tickets. Wether it closes or not they're off, along with 10% or more that have already gone

by WestieAJ | 17th May 21, 12:50pm 1621212604

Average of 3800 households in emergency housing on any given day. Government spending 1 million per day on emergency housing. Net migration to March 2020 of 94132. Most of those immigrants. If of working age would be low paid (not necessarily low skilled) workers. Even if every single one of them was earning 50k. Their PAYE contribution would be 8k each per year. The annual cost of emergency housing alone (365 mil) would soak up $3877 per person of that tax contribution. On top of that. Many of those immigrants would themselves be receiving accommodation supplement or working for families to help cover their own accommodation and living expenses. Rentier Capitalism 101.

by Advisor | 17th May 21, 2:18pm 1621217919

The million a day figure is what gets spent on emergency housing. Add tens of thousands in budget for the consultants, team leaders, policy & communications advisors, diversity & inclusion advisors, rainbow specialists, etc. employed at MSD and we are already incurring deficits on the PAYE from imported workers. Plus free healthcare for the entire family and fees-free schooling for the children (those who have been or will be here for 2 years or more are eligible).

To plug this widening gap in funding, the government cuts corners on infrastructure, which will continue to crumble under added population pressures.

by The Rogue Pirate | 17th May 21, 12:56pm 1621212966

So nearly a 100k extra people the year before?! No wonder house prices are so high. Hospitals and schools are packed.

by kiwikeith | 17th May 21, 1:25pm 1621214737

Yep and the politicians act as if the housing crisis is just bad luck. They actually caused the crisis by letting so many people in.

by rastus1 | 17th May 21, 1:12pm 1621213927

Without COVID these useless politicians would still be cheering and spinning how mass immigration is so wonderful.
Thank you COVID. Keep mutating, do for us that politicians won’t.

by HouseMouse | 17th May 21, 2:14pm 1621217681

Whether red or blue, useless AND full of vested interest.

by Cobolt24 | 18th May 21, 12:47pm 1621298838

What on earth is up with that near-exponential spike which began before Covid?? It's only taken up until now to balance that out to what was still a previously high level.

by Davo3636 | 17th May 21, 1:49pm 1621216151

In brief terms: Huge growth in low paid, low skilled immigration to drive GDP. Both the red team and blue team do it.

by Orontogosh | 17th May 21, 1:39pm 1621215568

I am happy to be corrected but based on the downward trend of the graph wont we be starting this year to March 2022 already net negative? I can only see this start to accelerate as educated and skilled younger workers continue to get frustrated with NZ's insane housing crisis. Especially those working in the public sector... Australia seems like the place to be. It sounds like the UK is facing a labour shortage too as they come out of lockdown, so maybe some opportunities there? The brain drain could well be devastating to the NZ economy as it lags behind the rest of the western world and even the developing world with the vaccine roll out. But we can always just swap houses at ridiculously increasing prices for a few more years to feel like things are going well eh? Interesting times indeed.

by rastus1 | 17th May 21, 1:46pm 1621215977

..family member works in medical. Doctors she knows are about to pull the pin. The young ones just look at houses prices and can see it makes no sense to stay here. One even got a beating walking to work last week. What a C F the bankers and politicians have created.

And they are still in denial. FFS.

by Ahuhyeah | 17th May 21, 11:04pm 1621249465

Not leaving country but know people leaving medical profession as workload and stress too high. Understaffed. Dangerous operating situations. Saying $@&* it you don't pay me enough to hate going to my job everyday, not getting breaks, and staying an hour late every shift.

Maybe if immigration hadn't added 200,000 people on top of aging population on top of obesity and diabetes epidemic. Its collapsing. (Tired hyperbole)

by Kaper2 | 17th May 21, 1:46pm 1621215983

I was all for lower immigration but it really is making it tough to find new staff to employ in my business, also hearing it from other employers. Pay rates are going up as a consequence and so are my prices to offset. Inflation is in for a big kick.

by Davo3636 | 17th May 21, 2:12pm 1621217541

What industry are you in?

by Kaper2 | 17th May 21, 2:34pm 1621218844

Logistics - warehousing & distribution. Industry is running at capacity at the moment.

by iconoclast | 17th May 21, 3:55pm 1621223745

How many cadets do you have in training?

by rastus1 | 17th May 21, 4:08pm 1621224523

the govt has priced our young and/or unskilled out of the labour market. It is now illegal to pay a person what they are worth. Expect youth unemployment to rise.

by Let me be Frank | 17th May 21, 6:52pm 1621234328

the ever ready excuse...private industry have always avoided training (facilitated by recent admins) ...its an avoidable cost. And they wonder why they cant get skilled staff onshore...wankers

by kiwikeith | 17th May 21, 2:14pm 1621217662

Yeah better to bring cheap labour from overseas than pay kiwi workers a bit more.

by Kaper2 | 17th May 21, 2:37pm 1621219079

As I said I am paying more, but it's the end consumer will be balking at the price rises they'll be noticing as a result.

by nz-it-worker | 17th May 21, 3:32pm 1621222364

We’ve had 20 years of hyper-inflation in the housing market. Shifting a little bit of this over to wages doesn’t sound so scary.

by Tombo77 | 17th May 21, 4:39pm 1621226382

Are there any roles listed on your website or seek? Actively searching so any tips much appreciated 0210 8536 721

by HouseMouse | 17th May 21, 2:08pm 1621217309

Covid did what no government would or could do. Just need a few more years like this.

by KH | 17th May 21, 2:16pm 1621217792

We need a net flow "out" for a few years

by Advisor | 17th May 21, 2:30pm 1621218652

Saviour Cindy keeps extending visas for hundreds of thousands of low-paid workers to prevent a mass outflow.

Labour could have very well used this opportunity to drive wages high and rents low by offering visa extensions only to the small cohort of well-paid migrants. However, it has been clear for a while that keeping the housing ponzi alive is Nat-lite's true calling.

by Burni | 17th May 21, 5:06pm 1621228002

It'll be young kiwis shortly.

by HouseMouse | 17th May 21, 2:19pm 1621217976

To be fair one saving grace of ultra high immigration has been it has seriously helped limit damage in terms of unemployment arising from covid.
Although that of course wasn't planned.
But it's a fortunate byproduct.

by Independent_Observer | 17th May 21, 2:21pm 1621218092

Be interesting to see the correlation between house price growth (delayed by 6-12 months) compared to net migration. That massive spike in 2019-2020 will be a contributing factor in the massive rise in house prices (demand) coupled with the reduction in OCR and LVR's witnessed this last year.

Bonkers policy by Treasury/Government and RBNZ.

by Orontogosh | 17th May 21, 2:52pm 1621219956

Definitely interesting. If we hold to the logic that rising net migration has been the driving force behind rising house prices (demand) then what does that mean now that we are potentially looking at negative net migration suggested by the downward trend? Obviously there are other factors to take in to account like rising inflation (yes its real) potentially resulting in rising interest rates etc. I think this party could be coming to an end. But how painful will the hangover be? Will there be anyone under 40 left in NZ to feel the hangover?

by KH | 17th May 21, 6:32pm 1621233168

House prices. One factor is the bubble. Population explosion building over ten years is a significant other. It will take some years of no immigration and catch up before house prices reduce.

by Nzdan | 17th May 21, 2:54pm 1621220084

Customs Air Passenger movements April 2020 to March 2021 has a net loss of 64,582. All those tourists on the way out.

https://www.customs.govt.nz/globalassets/documents/covid-19/air-pax-mov…
https://www.customs.govt.nz/globalassets/documents/covid-19/air-pax-mov…

by WestieAJ | 17th May 21, 3:21pm 1621221718

On a related note. This in an industry release from Ports of Auckland.
Labour supply – Training and domestic recruitment is ongoing. International recruitment has hit a roadblock. We successfully recruited four overseas crane drivers and they are now in operations however the 5th candidate’s Visa is now in question with Immigration as well as another 4 overseas crane drivers identified to give us some additional operational resilience, which is now under threat. We continue to work with authorities to understand what has changed.
Maybe what has changed is that you have said publicly in the media that you can train a crane driver from absolute beginner to proficient in ten weeks. The Auckland port has been an absolute C F for 6 months already. POAL has had a history of training teenagers to drive port cranes. The job is extremely well paid on union rates and allowances. WTF is actually going on. Would you rather hold out for immigrant crane drivers than train new recruits? Are the immigrant crane drivers going to be on union negotiated terms and conditions? Or individual contracts that make them cheaper and more flexible.

by Advisor | 17th May 21, 4:19pm 1621225157

Migrants are quite likely to take whatever they are offered as long as the employer dangles a pathway to permanent residency in their faces.

The management culture in NZ is rather poor where employers are keen on squeezing more output hours out of their workers for lower pay rather than investing in skills, productivity and employee wellbeing.

by gnx | 17th May 21, 5:06pm 1621227984

I hear one of Peter Goodfellows top dicks has taken the role of COO( no experience on a port ever)...And Tonys tenure aint looking too crash hot as CEO.

The crane drivers are from South Africa....

Cronyism and nepotism...what could go wrong!

How long did it take to train a spitfire pilot...must have taken years and years...(sarc)

by Burni | 17th May 21, 5:05pm 1621227943

Newshub reports.
Hundreds of foreign investors are expected to arrive in New Zealand in coming months as a result of new border exemptions allowing wealthy investors linked to two government programmes to visit.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) expects 220 wealthy individuals will arrive over the next year, bringing hundreds of millions in direct investment, job creation and skills.

We already have skill shortages. More immigration?

by b21 | 17th May 21, 9:44pm 1621244675

Why would you believe this now when they lied to you about the same before?

by patbell | 17th May 21, 7:09pm 1621235353

Good -

by b21 | 17th May 21, 9:44pm 1621244641

Where's the landlords club today who should be acknowledging all the lies they were spreading all over the media about hundreds of thousands of cashed out Kiwis returning to buy properties at premium prices? Shame on all those liars.

by Nzdan | 18th May 21, 6:58am 1621277910

They're busy tidying up the rentals before they list, because they know rental properties don't operate on a cost plus basis, despite their incessant noise from the interest deductibility reforms.