Residential property sales by Barfoot & Thompson remained relatively buoyant in May while average prices flattened off.
The agency, which is the biggest in the Auckland market, sold 1197 residential properties in May compared to 1107 in April.
The figures are not directly comparable with May last year when the market was affected by COVID restrictions and the agency recorded just 396 sales.
However, the 1197 properties sold in May was up 46% on the 821 properties it sold in May 2019 and was also the highest number of properties Barfoots has sold in the month of May since 2016.
May's prices on the other hand were virtually unchanged from April, with the average selling price declining by just $43, from 1,114, 054 in April to $1,114,011 in May.
The median selling price moved in the opposite direction, increasing by $22,800 from $1,050,000 in April to $1,072,800 in May.
Barfoots received 1502 new residential listings in May, down from 1675 in April, but it was the highest number of listings the agency has received in the month of May since 2017.
At the end of May it had a total of 3122 properties available for sale, down from 3335 in April.
That was the lowest stock level for the time of year since May 2016.
Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said there was no sign that new tax rules announced for residential property investors in March were affecting the market.
"Trading in May was excellent, with the median price increasing, the average price being in line with the record price set in April and sales numbers being their highest for the month of May for four years," he said.
"The market has worked through the implications of the recent changes and continues to trade with confidence," he said.
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68 Comments
As the old proverb goes "The higher you climb, the further you have to fall."
The higher you climb, the better the view is ?
The higher you climb, the better it is for looking down on people.
The higher you are the more painful the neck of those who are on the ground.
"The higher you climb, the better it is for looking down on people"
If that's your thing Groat, personally I prefer to invite people up rather than pull them down
I'm sure you believe that.
Can you share a couple of million bucks also as part of your gentle "invitation"?
Haha, I'm afraid that advice will have to suffice although good advice is only useful if taken in good faith, sadly most on this site are not open to advice and prefer to fight it...
Me too but I find people don’t want to do the work or take the risks to come up and join me.
The higher you climb the less chance of drowning in self pity...
Not when the RBNZ is building an ever taller scaffold under your bum.
Labour has you firmly attached to a safety rope.
It just shows how inept the RBNZ really is. They have forced people to put their money in a hyperbubble 'for safety' because the other options are somehow even riskier?
Wow Groat, for once P8 hasn’t lambasted you on your comment about RBNZ. Hope he is okay.
I am confident the long winded hot air machine shall return.
Clearly 'the market is cooling'...
Flat average price but median increasing by $22'800 shows nicely that, following the investor restrictions, fewer houses have been selling at the lower end whereas the top end kept selling well
A lot more trading up going on recently I think.
Except they had exceptionally high sales in May 2021, everything is still selling. No signs of any slowdown that I can observe in this data.
You should really visit some open homes to really see what's been going on for the past few weeks. Empty is an understatement.
My interpretation would be a drop in high end sales keeping the average in check, with the general market continuing to increase reflected in the higher median. High end sales will primarily influence the average, not the median.
Difficult to draw much conclusion from noisy monthly data, but it's early data that the government and RBNZ haven't done enough to stabilise or even drop prices yet. More action to come, hopefully.
It's is great to see investors now trying to find the bright side of their story. You will have to try harder in the following months.
For the vast majority of us the future looks brighter for real, no need to cherry pick.
Just paid my 6th lawyer fee for failed tender in 7 months. I feel ill.
That sucks. I really dislike sale by tender.
What does my head in is the agents are simply unwilling to give a realistic guide. They always undercook it and waste my time. Conveyacingnlawyers in this country must be dancing in the streets. 20 bids for every tender! Yipppeeee.
Why are you paying a lawyer each time you submit a tender? When I bought via tender in Wellington there was just a single lawyer fee when settling.
Due diligence costs. I'm not an experienced buyer.
You don't need a lawyer until your offer is accepted. Do your own due diligence on the property prior to submitting the tender. What is it that the lawyer is doing for these offers?
Nothing wrong with a Tender, its like a silent auction, just put in your best offer and walk away. If your offer was not high enough you wouldn't have been able to buy it anyway regardless of the method of sale. If you are a cashed up buyer, Tender and Auction are the way to go you just smoke the competition if you really want it.
Great for the seller, worst case for the buyer. Effective deal-making is about information asymmetry and this is a classic example. I appreciate there is little choice for the buyer but if you can avoid, do avoid.
Plenty wrong with a tender - both parties are not privy to all information, therefore you end up with dumb stuff like buyer paying $100k above what the next highest bid was, when the vendor would have accepted either offer. In an auction, where all bids are visible, you don't end up with such stupid outcomes (stupid from the perspective of the buyer).
Ultimately its the seller that's in control of the price. They are simply not going to accept a price that's 100's of thousands less than what they want just because that's the highest offer. Your just wasting your time continually putting in low offers in the hope you get it. I have just been involved in another sale and the market is still holding up to the sellers expectations. Sure if the housing market takes a dive because interest rates go through the roof or there is an epic GFC you may get some desperate sellers then that's a different situation but for now prices are firm and still rising so its business as usual or business unusual as per the last few months with the recent gains.
Auction is the best way to buy. You can see competition loud and clear.
Extend that graph out to 2004 and you will notice.... not much.
Thanks Labour.
Sales are of course higher than May 2020, as that month was badly impacted by Cv19.
12m running sales offers best view.
12m to March 2020 sold 9931. In 12m to August 2020 it was 9950, so barely a rise
Then it takes off, with 12m to Dec 20 at 12,064
12m to Jan 21 at 12,472
12m to feb 21 at 12,798
That was most of the acceleration
Still rises but more slowly thereafter, to 13,540 in 12m to March 21
12m to May 21 is misleading because May 20 was in lockdown in Auckland.
Comparisons also affected, of course, by number of new builds being sold and how much stock is AVAILABLE for sale. The amount of stock in Auckland has been rising by about 10-12,000 pa for last 3-4 years.
Meaning one would expect sales to rise in normal course of events.
Last winter (June-Aug) sales were abnormally high as market caught up with itself following lockdown.
Crux now, is will that repeat. No one expects it to. From June on we will be comparing to June 20, and the abnormally high sales last winter will make sales figures this year look a lot less spectacular.
Keep an eye on 12m sales figures as this shows trend better.
Expect that expectations of higher mortgages next year will begin to impact buyers thinking from here on also
If our inept media (interest excepted) were able to grasp that for some part of our population this is a real crisis for their familial and financial security they might ask some questions. I won't be holding my breath.
If some career-suicide-journalist was to burst through the borg-reporters and ask a question (Jenee stand down!) of the PM as to how she sleeps at night with the most catastrophic housing equity distortion being visited on her electorate on her watch and against her commitments, I think we would see an immediate interest only mortgage ban. That will shut the stable door nicely.
The horse has already bolted months ago. Labour will have to go into damage control if the current set of measures do not work. They are simply waiting and hoping for the traditional winter slowdown to save face. Lots of jawboning going on no affirmative action. Interest rates have to go up if you really wanted to put the brakes on hard.
DTI and Interest only abolishment would help.
But they need to be implemented yesterday instead of waiting for Robertson and Orr to finish playing with eachother.
That wouldn't make a difference for upgraders, who seem to be driving the market now.
Anyone know what happened to all the advice and data going back and forth between Robertson and Orr? Wasn’t there supposed to be an announcement end of May?
Labour supporters have the memory of a goldfish. I'm still waiting for that outcome on petrol prices that we were supposedly getting "Fleeced" on according to Labour. Their trick is to continually push out everything a few months and by then everyone has forgotten about it and we have moved on to the next "Crisis" they intend to manage - not.
If some career-suicide-journalist was to burst through the borg-reporters and ask a question (Jenee stand down!) of the PM as to how she sleeps at night with the most catastrophic housing equity distortion being visited on her electorate on her watch and against her commitments
She can easily explain away the problem:
1. Someone else (the opposition party and the speculators)
2. The past (when she wasn't in power)
3. The future ('what will unfold' because of her actions. Less easily explained.)
I think Jacinda is quite aware, as are Grant and Adrian (and Phil and David and David and David, and even Judith and Shane and Simon).
They're just unwilling to take the measures that would actually be effective, because the howls of outrage from the media and the public would be overwhelming.
We're stuck, because approximately half the population - and it's the half that votes most reliably - are benefiting from, or even dependent on a state of affairs that leaves the other half immiserated. It would take a very, very brave leader to seriously challenge the status quo. The major parties are *not* designed to produce brave leaders.
Right. I am seeing similar cowardice in the corporate sector at the moment. Two of the key players in consulting industry are struggling to adapt, but don't have the leadership to make necessary changes because they personally have too much to lose and they're trying to appease stakeholders who stand most to lose by change.
What's the worse that can happen if 50% of society turns against the other half and the leadership that is taking one side over another?
History suggests this is fine...(not).
Interesting the correlation between that house price growth graph and the new mortgage lending growth chart.. it’s almost as if there could be some type of correlation (sarc)
You mean correlation between the growth rates of prices and lending into existence. Call a spade a spade.
"Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said there was no sign that new tax rules announced for residential property investors in March were affecting the market."
I do not agree that the tax changes have had no effect. Tony Alexander reported in today's REINZ Report that;
"a net 63% of agents have reported seeing fewer investors in the housing market. This is exactly the same result as a month ago. The firmly negative outcome tells us that investors have reacted strongly to the combined impact of an LVR requiring a 40% minimum deposit, and planned removal of interest expense deductibility."
I do not agree that the tax changes have had no affect
'Affect' is a verb, not a noun. B&T should at least employ a comms team who understand grammar.
Do you mean verb?
Yes. Correct. I'm going mad.
Also T Alexander does not work for B&T…
Well you can't attribute that to B&T J.C. The quote shown, "...affecting the market", is the correct usage of affect.
Yep the market is really crashing, just like it was supposed to do over the last 40 years !!
Orr started this boom with very cheap money, the fat controller and co with their medling in the market from changes to the tenancy laws, to removing interest deductions and 10 year brightline test has started a new ball rolling in the market.
That new ball is an increase in the amount of capital investors are now willing to put into their private residence to maximize the tax free capital gains.
Very positive outlook for upmarket suburbs in my opinion. Same thing happened in Aussie when Capital gains was introduced in 1985.
Exactly this boom in the middle of a Pandemic no less started with cheap money and basically zero interest on your term deposits. Money has simply poured out into housing so people can cash in on spectacular gains. Where else can you get a $1000 per day return on your money on a hard asset ?
What you call "zero interest" is over 400K on a 800K mortgage at 30 years at current rates. Effectively 50% interest.
Read... "zero interest on your term deposits."
This is just not true.
Despite Data / Information suggesting that housing ponzi is at peak, still Robertson's and Orr's of NZ refuse to accept :
https://thekaka.substack.com/p/dawn-chorus-housing-not-so-cool?token=ey…
Prime example of Biased Vested Interest and How conflict of interest prevents ....
It is interesting how the number sold are 46% up on May 2019, when the inventory numbers are significantly down in 2021, compared to 2019. So it seems far more are selling? My issues with all these stats is that they are very limited and . I mean how many houses are listed, then fail to sell at deadline sales or tenders. Or how many get withdrawn that don't sell? I am seeing quite a lot of houses that failed to sell earlier in the year, coming back on the market now, probably expecting even more money
Inventory is down because they have sold most of the long standing stuff that had been sitting on books for ages.
Also, turnover is up due to all the auctions and stuff selling pre auction etc.
Stuff also gets recycled - people take it off market when not selling, or winter, or both, and put it back on in late spring.
That of course is cheating because it makes it appear that listing is fresh and not dated
little stock (other than what is not built but still listed as a house) is OTM over 3 months.
% OTM over 3m has fallen about 10% in last year
When mania declines and buyers decide prices too high, here is what happens.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/06/02/buyers-strike-mortgage-applications-d…
The biggest lie is "affordable " which should instantly draw the response "to WHOM?"
If stuff was affordable to a lot more folk, then home ownership (or debt) would be increasing, not falling.
Sales would not be lower than they were in 2012 and in 2004-6, despite stock being higher and pop being higher and rates being lower. Little of this is ever mentioned. All we get is "sales are up, prices are up, the market is rosy, come on in"
The average sale price in this area would have been bumped up considerably last week with the sale of Properties 1 and 3 on this list to developers: https://www.interest.co.nz/property/residential-auction-results?region=…-
Will be very interesting to see what's eventually built there!
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