Little change in Barfoot & Thompson's auction numbers as we head into winter

Property

The overall sales rate hovers just above 50% in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms

9th Jun 21, 9:29am by Greg Ninness

Activity in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms remained remarkably consistent as the housing market entered the first week of winter.

Auckland's largest real estate agency marketed 211 residential properties for sale by auction during the week of May 29 to June 4, little changed from 218 the previous week.

Barfoot's auction numbers have been in the low 200s per week throughout most of autumn and so far that appears to be showing little sign of change as we enter the winter season, traditionally the quietest time of year apart from the Christmas/New Year break.

The sales rate has also remained consistent at just above 50% and last week was no different with an overall sales rate of 51%.

Around the Auckland districts the sales rates ranged from 39% for the Papakura properties to 70% in Rodney (see the table below for the district results).

Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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69 Comments

by stuart786786 | 9th Jun 21, 10:17am 1623190661

Data suggests that housing market is still hot and this is after three months from reintroduction of LVR and housing policy, so what is Mr Orr waiting. Wait and Watch ...If June data suggests rising house price than look for July or August......or December and try to delay, giving opportunity to plunder as much as possible.

Article from Bernard Hickey below also suggesting no impact of LVR or housing policy on housing ponzi.

"Mortgage lending to home owners isn’t slowing much

The more data we get and the closer we look, the more it feels as if the housing market isn’t slowing down much or cooling down much.

I spoke late yesterday with Centrix Managing Director Keith McLauchlan about demand for mortgages, personal loans and credit cards. Centrix is the largest credit checking bureau and collects data from all the banks and finance companies on who has applied for and received credit every month.

Centrix released data for April yesterday showing mortgage applications running around 20% ahead of pre-Covid levels and lending stress very low. The March 23 ‘shock’ of the planned removal of interest deductibility for landlords of existing homes hasn’t hurt the market much.

McLauchlan told me the housing market remained robust given a lack of new listings leaving plenty of tension for prices and no short of credit. (Hear more in the Dawn chorus above.) We also talked about the big drop in demand for personal loans and credit cards, which he said was connected to the surge in Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage online during the lockdowns.

So what? The Government thinks its moves in November with the Reserve Bank and the tax and supply moves in late March have cooled the market enough to take the intense political pain off the table. I don’t think that’s true, given the price, sales and lending action come through for the period after March 23.

The bottom line: There remains a massive supply-demand imbalance in housing and the fundamental housing and leverage advantage for housing as an investment, particularly for owner-occupiers remains firmly in place without any wealth tax or capital gains tax moves. Supply is not growing fast enough to pull prices lower, and both the Government and the Reserve Bank showed last year they would act to prevent prices falling for macroeconomic and political reasons respectively.

Meanwhile, owners are now sitting on an extra $300b of equity that ‘came out of nowhere’ since the arrival of Covid. Along with added leverage, this will keep upward pressure on prices."

by tothepoint | 9th Jun 21, 10:05am 1623189949

Housing market has a solid reputation for being resilient.

Plenty of us would like to see a sustained decline in house prices - but it doesn’t look likely.

TTP

by b21 | 9th Jun 21, 10:13am 1623190433

Stagnant demand, increased supply and raising rates would point to lower prices.

by Crazy Horse | 9th Jun 21, 1:35pm 1623202523

If TTP has said it, it must be taken as 100% per cent correct - no ifs, buts or maybes !

The extreme wisdom and intelligence of that man never ceases to amaze me.

While his comments on this forum are worth gold ! ......or should I say "residential property gold" :)

Yours Truly

Mike Hosking

by Lord Dowding | 9th Jun 21, 2:44pm 1623206652

You can snigger all you like but TTP has been right year after year.

by Crazy Horse | 9th Jun 21, 3:15pm 1623208545

With all due respects, I am not sniggering at all Lord Dowding, just stating facts.... now back to your sheltered and privileged world.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 5:26pm 1623216361

You should look up the meaning of the word "facts" as there are none in your previous comments, only cynical, sarcasm

by Crazy Horse | 10th Jun 21, 11:48am 1623282495

@ Yvil ...you didn't even read my post correctly, as "facts" was a reference to your good buddy TTP and his quips and "broad based" opinions, which you, yourself read as "facts" .....have a marvellous day :)

by Brock Landers | 9th Jun 21, 11:05am 1623193519

Indeed. You can't taper a ponzi.

by Independent_Observer | 9th Jun 21, 2:54pm 1623207251

Guess we'll find out how resilient house prices are if interest rates go up and start discounting cash flows with a higher discount rate.

If rent/income rates don't rise faster than the rise in interest rates (i.e. cash flow increases less than discount rate) we will see serious downside pressure on prices.

by J.C. | 9th Jun 21, 10:51am 1623192674

Meanwhile, owners are now sitting on an extra $300b of equity that ‘came out of nowhere’ since the arrival of Covid

Yes. The trade-off being the destruction of the value of labor in exchange for goods and services.

by stuart786786 | 9th Jun 21, 11:04am 1623193474

Even the headline of this article suggests that nothing has changed

"Little change in Barfoot & Thompson's auction numbers as we head into winter"

Mr Orr indicated that he expect the ponzi to be contained as per latest data that he had, can he share the data that led him to conclusion that house price are cooling AND also if his analysis of the data that he is interpreting is wrong, how much time will he wait .....is it till eternity.

Also will he ever accept that his one track mind can be wrong as is blinded by his obsession to support ponzi as for home that is NZ economy.

Journalist should be asking him hard question but in NZ, it is this attitude of "you scratch my back and I scratch your" that allows Orr's of NZ to feel that they have got away with their spin.

The headline Little change.....could also be Nothing much has changed.......

by Brock Landers | 9th Jun 21, 11:06am 1623193572

Have you considered leaving New Zealand?

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 11:31am 1623195087

Exactly, if Stuart doesn't like NZ he can go back to Germany

by Brock Landers | 9th Jun 21, 11:46am 1623195995

I'm not being malicious.

Nothing is going to change for the better in this country. Moving abroad might be the best option.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 5:27pm 1623216431

Well you're very welcome to leave for greener pastures as well instead of constantly complaining about NZ

by HouseMouse | 9th Jun 21, 6:26pm 1623219970

That's pretty unfair and shows a lack of empathy. Why should kiwis feel they pretty much have to leave the country largely because of our housing mess? There's very good reason for many people to complain right now. If you have a house or multiple houses it's easy to sit on your high horse and judge.

by Groat | 9th Jun 21, 1:46pm 1623203178

Perhaps you could get off your high horse and see how bad NZ is becoming for so many.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 5:27pm 1623216464

I don't own a horse

by pacifica | 9th Jun 21, 9:53pm 1623232407

or an understanding of metaphors it seems

by stuart786786 | 9th Jun 21, 11:46am 1623195986

Highlighting what is not right does not imply that one does not like NZ.

It is this attitue that my way or highway is wrong.

by b21 | 9th Jun 21, 12:25pm 1623198346

It is sad to read such empty headed and nationalists comments here, very sorry for that, this has always been a country of immigrants ready to make it a better place to live, those entitled think it is already good enough (for them).

by Groat | 9th Jun 21, 2:02pm 1623204130

Housing is the NZ apartheid.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 5:31pm 1623216660

b21, I think it's much worse to leave your country of birth to make a life in a different country and then continually, daily complain about your new country. I wasn't born in NZ, I understand it's a privilege to live here, I do not want to complain non-stop about NZ and if I did and someone told me "you can go back to your country of origin if you don't like it here" I would say he's got a very valid point.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 5:42pm 1623217330

For all the miserable complainers on here, see today's Interest's article "What happened today", you will find a link that states

"Auckland has topped the Economist's The Global Liveability Index 2021"

by HouseMouse | 9th Jun 21, 6:34pm 1623220491

Man, you have a cheek. 'Miserable complainers' ? Show some empathy man. I understand you came to NZ in the 1990s, you had the benefit of being able to buy a home in your new-home country when housing was relatively affordable. For many young born and bred kiwis, that is fast becoming an impossibility. For Maori, in particular, it's a further evolution in being dispossessed.
Can't you not understand and empathize with the growing feeling rather than resorting to 'miserable complainers.'
There are very valid reasons why more and more people are unhappy/angry. Try and understand them rather than mock them.

by Millennial_Woman | 9th Jun 21, 7:12pm 1623222720

Thanks HouseMouse

by HouseMouse | 9th Jun 21, 8:27pm 1623227269

Welcome. Morons need to be put in their place.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 7:50pm 1623225054

HouseMouse, I'm not mocking anyone but constantly complaining does NOT make one better off, quite the opposite it locks a person in misery and prevents one from seeing opportunities, so the first step is to stop complaining and ask yourself honestly "what can I do to get to where I want to be" Sorry I don't do empathy cause I don't think a "poor you I feel so sorry for you" is going to help but I'm happy to give advice (which is mostly not accepted), so what's your situation and what do you want to achieve in the next 5 years?

by HouseMouse | 9th Jun 21, 8:30pm 1623227406

You are a nasty, materialistic and self centered man.
And you are ridiculously out of touch.
And it's rich coming from you, someone who had the fortune to come to NZ in the 1990s and buy when property was affordable. And then to talk of people making things better for themselves...
Really rich of you.
I am sick of your nonsense.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 8:48pm 1623228494

There you go, perfect example of choosing to argue rather than to accept advice being offered.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 8:51pm 1623228667

I was hoping you would open up about your situation like I opened up when you asked me, so I could help you... instead you chose to argue... It's a real shame

by Independent_Observer | 9th Jun 21, 9:25pm 1623230751

Yvil has been known to drive around Ponsonby in his Aston Martin with personalised plates...so you know, he’s kind of a big deal like the incredible zohan. You really should take notice.

Agree on the whinging front though Yvil - from both sides. It appears the pressure is mounting...

by status quo | 10th Jun 21, 6:43am 1623264196

Doesn’t sound like anyone wants your advice. So very out of touch.

by Yvil | 10th Jun 21, 9:12am 1623273159

Indeed, sadly people prefer to comment to complain rather than to learn anything, people prefer to stay in the status quo.

by mikekirk29 | 10th Jun 21, 8:12am 1623269570

So,along with all the non PC things we are not allowed to say according to the prevailing narratives, the given tone on here (if you had your way) would be, no "complaining" which seemingly equates to anyone saying anything derogatory re housing in NZ and gov or RBNZ policy or economic prospects, all of which is slagging off "NZ".
Critical reasoning no longer permitted it seems.

by Yvil | 10th Jun 21, 9:09am 1623272966

Constructive criticism is great, daily, never-ending complaining on the same subject and always blaming everyone else is not.

by Fluffybunny | 11th Jun 21, 8:15am 1623356112

This spastic situation we've got ourselves in deserves ALL the airtime.

Slowly and surely digging the hole bigger.

by b21 | 9th Jun 21, 10:16pm 1623233760

How many immigrants do you have as tenants?

by Yvil | 10th Jun 21, 9:11am 1623273073

My only tenant is my elderly mother-in-law who doesn't pay rent. Also your question is loaded, inherently judgemental and off topic.

by b21 | 10th Jun 21, 9:32am 1623274374

Of course it's loaded, by your previous slur against immigrants. If you are going to feel victimized you should not display that behavior in the first place.

by Yvil | 10th Jun 21, 6:41pm 1623307267

Yet again, grow up, then we can have a proper conversation without sarcasm and other BS, just a good honest straightforward conversation,

by Groat | 9th Jun 21, 12:04pm 1623197088

Orr is hiding under a rock waiting for news of price falls so he can continue to do nothing.

by B727 | 9th Jun 21, 10:03am 1623189802

Great news for the property team. Time to get valuations re-checked at the banks. 30%+ on an Auckland rental we bought from a distressed owner pre COVID. Other folks are all saying the same. Good times ahead.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 10:20am 1623190818

Well done B727

by Groat | 9th Jun 21, 1:53pm 1623203609

Well done crushing other peoples futures. Get ahead at all costs!

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 5:34pm 1623216870

Stop your melodramatic nonsense, he didn't "crush anyone's future" he bought a house from someone who was in urgent need to sell their house, no one put a gun to the sellers' head that he had to sell the house to B727

by J.C. | 9th Jun 21, 10:53am 1623192818

Great news for the property team

Do you work for some kind of informal REIT?

by Independent_Observer | 9th Jun 21, 2:56pm 1623207362

Here's hoping to another 30% return for you this year as well B727. And the year after that.

by b21 | 9th Jun 21, 10:17pm 1623233833

Total lack of empathy. Shameful comment.

by Lord Dowding | 9th Jun 21, 6:32pm 1623220346

Yes people have sure done well. I’d love to have an IP if I could.

by DaveRennie | 9th Jun 21, 10:47am 1623192430

Wait for the new version of the RMA, three acts to replace one, then developers will be tied up with even more B.S
This government is clueless, tax the achievers, give to the lazy and keep borrowing $110,000,000 per day

by frazz | 9th Jun 21, 11:04am 1623193441

Sit down Boomer

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 11:30am 1623195043

by frazz | 9th Jun 21, 11:57am 1623196627

Thats ok Yvil - get back to your motels books and counting up MSW grants

by ex agent | 9th Jun 21, 3:48pm 1623210534

Frazz don't waste your breath. From my years of experience when someone has to tell you as quick as they can what they earn and what they own they generally are just having you on to make themselves feel good. In other words they are generally not telling you the truth. Human nature.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 21, 5:24pm 1623216255

What's with all the cynical comments and hate Frazz?

by pacifica | 9th Jun 21, 10:00pm 1623232826

er their point was a valid one and ageism has nothing to do with it. Why bring up that you like to discriminate against people on arbitrary terms instead of pose a response to their point. I have several comments in that the governments of previous years and decades have regularly been giving money to able bodied people over 65 for no other reason than their birthday yet he calls severely disabled people lazy when they are often literally physically incapable of walking unaided and unable to read and the government actually denies people with severe disabilities any housing support and income support adequate enough to afford bread yet you don't see me resort to the "boomer" discrimination insults instead of posting that point.

by HouseMouse | 9th Jun 21, 6:36pm 1623220571

That's total rubbish.

by Carlos67 | 9th Jun 21, 11:18am 1623194301

The market is still strong for winter so it only needs to carry on at 50% for another few months before we are back into summer. Someone needs to give this government deadlines to work to, the "Wait and see.....forever" BS is not working. Whatever they do now will take months to get changed so thats Summer again and Boom away we go again.

by Waikatohome | 9th Jun 21, 12:02pm 1623196937

Sadly I have to agree with you. If the banks keep fuelling the fire by lending to those with growing equity or by allowing scary income multiples this whole mess will keep going. Houses are primarily for shelter, they should not be a money making scheme. Unfortunately most people only care about personal enrichment at the cost to everyone else, just look at the damage being caused by Bitcoin mining. How much money is enough?

by Independent_Observer | 9th Jun 21, 2:42pm 1623206562

Let it boom Carlos - that's what everyone wants right? As the PM rightly suggests, New Zealand home owners like to see the value of their primary asset increase in value. So do the banks. So do the Reserve Bank. So do the politicians. So I say let them eat their cake...all of it....and get terrible indigestion!

I've got to the point now that the only way NZ is going to learn its lesson and its going to be the hard way - I don't see any other alternative now.

by mikekirk29 | 9th Jun 21, 1:10pm 1623201014

What was peak number BT had up for auction in a particular week?
How does that figure compare to most recent week?

by Crazy Horse | 9th Jun 21, 1:37pm 1623202637

The more I watch this "show" , the more I wish prices would keep steadily increasing, for the following reasons:

1. At least FHB's won't get caught in negative equity territory (a good reason)

2. The PI "sheeple" out there keep on thinking they are "getting ahead" - but the returns for a new PI are just crap ...especially when prices are stable, as there has to be "capital gains" - full stop.

3. The more people who actually "think", will realise that the price of your home "going up" is counter intuitive, as so does everyone else's ! - only works if downsizing or leaving the country.

4. Interest rates WILL increase - it's just a matter of when - you have been told.

5. So much resources, time and money are going into the residential property market - when they could be going into creating or expanding new businesses/ventures etc ie tech industries , R & D, local and overseas investment, creating and producing products out of the raw materials - instead of exporting the live animal or a log ! etc etc

6. NZ Public and private debt just keeps on increasing - which some people think it doesn't have to be paid back and its just "printed money"

7. Remember, if Wall St sneezes, NZ will get a bad case of the flu - NZ is so dependent on the rest of the world doing well.

8. Further to 7. I wouldn't be putting any new funds into the US stock market at the mo' .......that thing is ready to blow ! ....and when it does, watch your beloved banks "change their tune"

So happy daze to all, keep listening to Mike Hosking for all your boomer dribble ....and best of luck mate ! :)

by Independent_Observer | 9th Jun 21, 2:39pm 1623206372

Couldn't agree more on all points - and yes I've been moving $$ away from the US sharemarket and into the likes of JPY, EUR, AUS.

by Crazy Horse | 9th Jun 21, 3:20pm 1623208850

Good move IO ....the USD is losing value against most other currencies - however, all FIAT currencies are being inflated away anyway - which is another whole issue in itself.

by Independent_Observer | 9th Jun 21, 3:57pm 1623211034

Pretty hard to find value in the US at the moment.

by Lord Dowding | 9th Jun 21, 2:50pm 1623207005

Don’t really care about prices only care about my accomodation expenses because you have to live somewhere. As long as my costs don’t got above market rent I’ll be happy. (At the moment they are way less than rent)

by b21 | 10th Jun 21, 6:49am 1623264596

What a selfish comment, I guess this is what it takes to become a professional landlord.