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CoreLogic says housing market may be at a turning point with the impact of tax changes and rising interest rates yet to hit

CoreLogic says housing market may be at a turning point with the impact of tax changes and rising interest rates yet to hit

The housing market may be at a turning point as affordability pressures, mortgage lending restrictions and changes to tax rules for residential investment properties start to bite, according to property data company CoreLogic.

"There is now evidence that we're close to, or at, a turning point - mainly on the back of affordability pressures and the 40% deposit requirement for investors - and over the coming months sales activity and the pace of value growth are likely to ease," CoreLogic said in its latest Quarterly Property Market and Economic Update.

The report said the monthly gains on the CoreLogic House Price Index had eased from 3.1% in April to 2.2% in May and 1.8% in June.

"As sales activity dips over the [coming] months, it's also likely that a slowdown for values will become more evident, albeit house price falls still seem unlikely in this cycle," it said.

The report said most of the cooling that had occurred was probably due to the introduction of a 40% deposit requirement for investors rather than the extension of the Bright Line Test for taxing capital gains to 10 years and making mortgage interest on residential investment properties a non-deductible expense.

"However, as the months pass, we would anticipate the tax changes to have a greater effect, and certainly push investors towards new builds rather than existing properties, especially if the ability to claim interest as a tax deduction applies indefinitely for the first owner (investors) of a new build," it said.

But perhaps the biggest impact on the housing market would come from rising mortgage interest rates.

"Major banks have already started raising fixed-term mortgage interest rates," CoreLogic said.

"The upward lift in interest rates by ASB, ANZ, BNZ and Westpac will impact new borrowers.

"A 0.36% increase, resulting in a 2.95% initial interest rate equates to additional payments of $1824 per year ($152 per month), across a recent home buyer's $800,000 mortgage on a 30 year-term.

"Should interest rates keep rising and reach the long-term average of 6%, that same new buyers would pay an extra $19,164 in mortgage payments per year ($1597 per month).

"Even a new borrower with a lesser mortgage of $500,000 will need to find another $246 to $388 a month in payments if rates move up to 3.5% or 4%."

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112 Comments

This is reflected in their decision to revalue our property 3% lower, as seen in the ANZ banking app. I suddenly feel poorer, and my wallet has now clammed firmly shut.

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Interesting - homes.co.nz is still showing increasing values month on month- an almost 100K increase in Wellington since the 1st May. I was curious to see what houses were really selling for so since the 1st week May I've been recording in the Wellington area for those properties for sale the valuation homes had for the property on the 1st May. Almost 70% of properties sold since have sold for the May valuation or less. This week a number of homes have sold for the Feb/March homes valuation - in one case 200K less than the current valuation (1st July).

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How do you know what they sold for? Not many auctions in Wellington. Usually takes a good few weeks and you have to call the agent.

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Rate my agent website shows the sales rates for a number of agents on the same day. I have been recording since May- so thats 3 months data

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So you are recording both the agents and the houses they list and then seeing how their average sales price shifts to work out the sold price. Decent effort!

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I just read that the new Tauranga RV's will be released early December that took effect from 1st July 2021. There is already a colour coded map posted with the anticipated gains and in some areas its huge. The council then simply has a budget and that is spread across the region and proportioned accordingly. Some people are going to be getting some pretty big rates increases thrown at them because its midnight on New Years eve at the house warming party and the timing couldn't be better as far as the council is concerned.

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Whereabouts was the info please?

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Thanks,have just found it.
Wonder if we get some pot holes filled in properly with all the extra $$$$ going into the council coffers.

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In the immortal words of Aerosmith, Dream On!

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You know homes.co.nz is influenced by realestate agents right & have a direct impact on values indicated on new properties?

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yes and thats my point - whilst Real estate agents (through the help of homes.co.nz) are trying to lift prices month on month- the reality of what the market is willing to pay at the moment is significantly different.

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Oneroof is the same too - I kind of feel like they'll be the last to lower estimated values. The herald property site definitely leans towards propaganda.

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This one in Miramar, Wellington just sold over 1.9.
https://homes.co.nz/address/wellington/miramar/35-aparima-avenue/vyWj9

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Homes.co.nz was designed to help the govt. buy motels at 2x its value.

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Homes.co.nz was designed to help the govt. buy motels at 2x its value.

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How are you getting the figures they sell for? It seems the figures get delayed by a good 3 months before they get displayed on these estimate websites

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How old is your home?

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1987. One of those Keith Hay hardiplank cladded houses on 1/5 acre.

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The reason I asked was that there is a possibility that the market is splitting into a larger pricing differential between older properties that you can't get the interest deductibility or foreign buyer exemption and new builds which you can.

Also, older properties are starting to have more 'healthy homes standard' issues which are becoming more important for investors.

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"Reality check coming on house prices, Corelogic warns." - https://bit.ly/3y2UYI2
...Oh, sorry, that was July last year.

"Auckland house prices hit tipping point as buyer options increase." -https://bit.ly/3ycjUNn
...No, wait, that one was April, 2019.

Forecasting house price declines is the #1 hobby of New Zealand economists. One day they will make a correct call but it's near as makes no difference useless at this point because they've been so wrong for so long.

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Same tired old comment.
Get over it . . . economics is not an exact science.

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So what is it then?

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Drink your tea and hand me the tarot cards

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A coin flip would likely have been a better forecast over the last several years, at least coin is likely to be right 50% of the time.

...this might be why they want to phase physical currency out, protect economist jobs.

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Hamish
If you are unsure . . . then you have a problem.

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So you don't know either?

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printer8,

You won't win this one. Most people have a pretty low opinion of economists and with cause. For evidence, see Kate Rawarth's Doughnut Economics, Yves Smith's Econned orJohnathan Aldred's Licence To Be Bad, How economics Corrupted Us. How many 'established' economic theories have been shown to be useless? How about the Laffer Curve or the Efficient Market Hypothesis. There are many others. I have a low opinion of the usefulness of the Phillip's Curve.

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linklater
So whose comments do we take notice of. Those on this site????
- by Bugger | 24th Mar 21, It’ll fall off a cliff coming into winter.
- by Brock Landers | 19th Apr 21, I reckon about 40% below asking.
- by Bugger | 17th Apr 21 Give it another couple of months, then we'll be entering unconditional LOW BALL offer time. And I'm talking, 20% under asking price.
- by gnx | 17th Apr 21 Why offer 20% below asking price....when you could wait another six months and get 40% off?
Just a small selection in past five months . . . and these all got widespread acclaim with huge numbers of up-ticks.

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Printer you just have to accept there are those here that still wouldn't buy a house if the price fell 50% tomorrow, they would still be wanting it cheaper. All I can say is that I was bloody lucky to wake up and smell the coffee and get back into the market in Sept 2020.

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I would like to revise that comment should actually offer sixty percent below asking.

But what's that got to do with anything printer9. Are you so dim that you confused that with some kind of market prediction?

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Brock
Me dim?
Four millennial sons, all have homes (and two with rentals) all with no financial help from me, but do have my genes and consider my advice. :)
What about you? One of the 60,000 FHB in past year? :)
. . . . and by the way your comment was in a thread in which the context was the direction of the market post 23 March announcements. However I do recognise the position you are in.
Have a great weekend. ;)

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In science when your hypothesis is invalidated you go back and ask why. Perhaps if Economists treated economics as a science it would improve their forecasting and people would start to take the profession more seriously?

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It would be interesting to read an article from corelogic on their failed predictions and how they came to get it so wrong. Maybe the last forecast included the possibility with low chance e.g. 10% that prices would continue to rise. Maybe they would remark that comments from the prime minister on house price expectations were a key support to prices. Maybe they would admit that no economist could bring themselves to predict the real impacts of QE.

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The issue is that government and businesses are trying to make real world decisions based on this modelling. Like if they create jobs, finance new projects, invest in R&D, build houses, purchase machinery etc. Economists are costing companies money as they let the opportunity to leverage slip through their fingers and government the ability to make real changes that positively impact peoples lives with this narrative of imminent decline.

One day CoreLogic might be right but, by the time they are, will it be useful to anybody? We've wasted years.

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No one has been since the GFC. The old models just don’t work anymore. However, few economists admit this. I understand many here aren’t a fan of Tony Alexander, but to his credit he has admitted this for sometime especially in the case of interest rates.

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Are we still commenting on this article? The keyword here is "may be". Why is this a prediction? I would see this as a warning and nothing more. I don't understand how people think this is a prediction.

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I don’t even think it’s a warning. It’s more like an observation.

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No wonder economists are getting it wrong....just look at Auckland University's "Economics 101" curriculum:

cohttps://www.mentalfloss.com/article/585258/historical-divination-method…!

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Thanks. It's good to give this forecast some context. It would be even better if there was some sort statistical measure of the accuracy of all previous Corelogic forecasts, or forecasts by any other economics entity for that matter. Of course it's possible that such an in-depth study would reveal that they're simply not very good at predicting the future.

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CoreLogic are not trying to predict the future in this article. Read it again and note the language: "it's also likely that...", "we would anticipate...", "There is now evidence that...". Economic analysis deals in risk and probability, not absolutes, and even something with an 80% chance of happening may in fact never occur at all.

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Of course that's predicting the future. Just because there are probabilities attached doesn't change that. The question is, are they any good at it?

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They publish these reports quarterly. If there is an 80% chance every quarter and it's not happened in several years...that's a real outlier!

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Paradox of prediction? Where a voiced prediction initiates a change in behaviour, thus voiding the prediction?
CoreLogic: House prices might fall!!!
Government/RBNZ: Thanks for the heads up, we will make sure this doesn't happen.
Everyone: CoreLogic your predictions suck.
It would be like preventing someone from blindly stepping infront of a truck, and then that person saying "pfft, whatever I wasn't going to get hit by a truck, your predictions suck".

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Nzdan
The most significant factor in this is the uncertainty around the assumptions or premises that CoreLogic and other economists need to base their comments.
Current significant unknown factors affecting the short to medium term outlook for the housing market which CoreLogic will be making assumptions include:
- RBNZ decisions on interest rates
- potential for further outbreaks of Covid and consequences of lockdowns (one just needs to look to Australia),
- banks funding and actions over interest rates, and
- Government actions or not.
Although as valuers and contacts in the real estate world they will have informal information and some insight regarding factors such as the influence of the March 23 announcements on investors, however there will be still uncertainty.
There is no certainty.
Reports such as this is based on consideration of factors and assumptions in current time - and of course an outbreak of variant D tomorrow would suddenly change that outlook.
The bottom line is that anyone experienced and successful in making financial decisions - whether it be housing, equities or interest rates - will have their own knowledge, consider a range of opinions, importantly what the rationale for behind those opinions, their own observations, and come to their own considered opinion. One can clearly see experienced punters decision making at the races; read the form, observe the horses and make one's decision . . . and no one will be right all the time.
Those who simply slag-off reports such as this are either naive or in need of boosting their self-esteem.
I am perplexed why the likes of squishy bother reading articles such as this if that is how he feels; however I'm not perplexed at all by those who simply continually slag-off such reports, bury their heads in the sand, and in the next breath call "poor" . . simply bunnies.

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Even a broken clock is right twice a day...

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'$800,000 mortgage on a 30 year-term'

Jeesus wept, that's a life sentence not home ownership.

Have to agree with the people that are saying the young'uns should bail to 'straya and earn some money.

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FHB are screwed either way...courtesy NZ masters like Jacinda and Orr.

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And our screwed FIAT monetary system

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And $650/week (plus inflation) for life for the equivalent rental isn't?

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Well yes, it’s the fact that those are your two options that makes moving look like a good idea.

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Yeah in Aus it's easy to have a lot more left over after paying your main expenses. Incomes are higher and lots of things are cheaper including international flights to the rest of the world (you know - when there isn't a global pandemic on).

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Well its worse than that, your mortgage repayments decrease in real terms over the 25 years where as your rent price increases over that time. At some point during the 25 years the rent cost will exceed your mortgage repayment. Renting you come out the other side with nothing, buying you come out with a house that has doubled in value.

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Yep. Possibly more for an apartment in centralish Auckland.

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Hi Muzled,

If you joined the young'uns in straya, that would free up another house for people (like me) who think NZ is a pretty good country and want to stay here.

Be on your way, my friend, and good luck to you......

TTP

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You should me made president of the Boomers T

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Well toothy, I'm in the very fortunate situation of having popped into this planet of ours at a particular year that allowed me to finish skool in a particular year which then allowed me to start working and buy my first house when they weren't exhorbitantly expensive.

But it was just sheer luck that I popped into the world at that time that now leaves me owning my house in a nice area with no mortgage.

Along the way I did shoot over to 'straya and work and save but I already had my first mtg paid off.

And as much as I'd like to be young again, I don't envy anyone picking up an 800k mortgage to kick life off.

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Toothy, I just learnt a new word.

Avarice.

Are you surprised that you sprang to mind when I read what it meant?

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I'd be very happy to take on an $800k mortgage and be able to live in my own house in the area where I'm renting now...

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It's a big loan, I'm not saying it's right but having been a broker, they don't lend if Servicing isn't there. It's not uncommon for young people to earn $130k+ in govt and council jobs. X2 partners, that's really good annual income and in my experience those earners were very diligent about paying it down fast. Most had the objective to get enough equity quickly to buy a rental within a few years. This was most of my customers and most were in their 20s and 30s.

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It's a big loan, I'm not saying it's right but having been a broker, they don't lend if Servicing isn't there. It's not uncommon for young people to earn $130k+ in govt and council jobs. X2 partners, that's really good annual income and in my experience those earners were very diligent about paying it down fast. Most had the objective to get enough equity quickly to buy a rental within a few years. This was most of my customers and most were in their 20s and 30s.

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It's a big loan, I'm not saying it's right but having been a broker, they don't lend if Servicing isn't there. It's not uncommon for young people to earn $130k+ in govt and council jobs. X2 partners, that's really good annual income and in my experience those earners were very diligent about paying it down fast. Most had the objective to get enough equity quickly to buy a rental within a few years. This was most of my customers and most were in their 20s and 30s.

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https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/zero-down-mortgages-sub…

Whenever one reads news about how bad the housing situation is in that country, it follows with a disclaimer that HOUSING MARKET IS BAD BUT NOT AS BAD/FROTHY AS NEWZEALAND.

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'...and over the coming months sales activity and the pace of value growth are likely to ease," CoreLogic said in its latest Quarterly Property Market and Economic Update.

It simply means growth from 30% could be 25% or 20% or 15% or........and they will prove to be correct.

As mentioned in another paragraph

"As sales activity dips over the [coming] months, it's also likely that a slowdown for values will become more evident, albeit house price falls still seem unlikely in this cycle," it said."

Still the same principal applies as to how you want to read it, half full or half empty but reality is that Ponzi continues.

No news on DTI except initial buzz and no mention of Interest Only loan or any other measures except waiting and hoping like Jacinda mentioned that want house price growth to continue (not fall) and still make house affordable for FHB....even God cannot do this miracle aunty Jacinda. Empathy is good for photo opportunity only.

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building costs up, labour costs up, land cost up, rates up, insurance up, mortgage up, house price goes down?

joke?

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Most of your list is (apparently) just temporary inflation. Just ask our RBNZ.

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Remember that temporary earlier was one quarter, than two..........may be will end at decade.

How come NO one has asked Mr Orr what is his defination / timeframe of TEMPERORY or does he wants to leave it open so can push it to eternity as have no other defence to hide.

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Just read :

That’s a concise statement of why some argue one shouldn’t worry about a passing spike in inflation. Here’s why it’s wrong:

What ordinary people know and economists too often forget is that while inflationary spikes may come and go, higher prices are forever. This spring’s inflation surge will lead to a permanently higher baseline. A lower inflation rate in the future will only moderate future increases from that new, higher base. The one thing that almost certainly will not happen is that prices will fall substantially to undo some of this allegedly “transitory” inflation.

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Dams bursting X?

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xing,

it clearly hasn't occurred to you that the last item on your list might just be the catalyst for prices to fall. What would happen to many recent buyers if their mortgage rate doubled?

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Unfortunately, I think his assessment is right. I think people will be fine even if it doubles. It will just be returning to what it was a few years ago. In order to see house price declines, we’d have to see a serious economic contraction and a rise in unemployment. Right now, I don’t think that’s likely unless we see interest rates get to 6% or higher where disposable income circulates less in the economy and then at the same time we have a Delta outbreak that is of a similar severity to what Fiji is going through. It could happen, but unlikely IMO.

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Jacinda time up?

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Jacinda time up?

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meanwhile article on Stuff..House prices running hotter than ever...I wonder what the chocolate wheel will fall on next week.

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Housing has been very resilient to prophesy of doom in the last twenty years. This is the first time a major property title has made that sort of statement.

They are right in on thing. More headwinds. They also single out investors starting to seek tax credits on debt as a major deciding factor in behaviour. Who would have thought....

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It will be good to know if this data is when house offer is accepted or when settlement is done?
Is its the data from settlement, then seems like slow down albeit very small has stated happening couple of months ago.
But still the values are so inflated that i am not sure how many can afford it?
A new two bedroom house going for 850k is not I would call a slow down or becoming affordable.
Something is certainly broken or people are making a lot more money now than an year ago.

So what's the truth?

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I think Corelogic data is based on sales that have been settled. Monthly REINZ stats are based on sales that have gone unconditional so are more timely. I'm not aware of anyone who bases their stats on just offer acceptance, since too many of those fall through.

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Not true. CoreLogic sales based on agreement date. Often before advised through council records.

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Nick
No; househunter is correct.
CoreLogic is based on registration with LINZ - i.e. registration of change of title, the very final step . That’s well and truely long after agreement date - in many cases three months after agreement date.

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Ha, funny. Dunno what makes you an authority on CoreLogic data processes but I work there so am pretty sure I know how it works. LINZ data is matched into CoreLogic data but it’s not the main source.
Thanks

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dp

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dp

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Nick
Both CoreLogic and Councils only consider property sales once they have been registered with LINZ.
Both have requirements and onus to be legally correct - CoreLogic for its role in determining rateable values and councils for rating purposes. Neither would be considering sales to be complete until registered as even when sales go unconditional (well after agreements signed) as even unconditional sales can fall through..
The only reason CoreLogic would record data prior to councils is that they are likely to be more timely.
Yes CoreLogic are valuers and will receive more recent data but that will not be for their main database.

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Incorrect in a number of ways.
CoreLogic do not wait for LINZ data for property sales. Never have.
CoreLogic doesn’t determine rateable values.
CoreLogic are not valuers.
Thanks.

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dp

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The market is at a turning point but probably only the speculative gains part of more increases in prices. The problem from now is that any increased building costs simply have to be passed on to buyers. Interest rate rises have been to slow, the damage has already been done, you simply cannot "wait and see" you have to be ahead of the curve, thats the real skill in managing the economy because any idiot can do it based on hindsight.

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Carlos67 increased building costs have to passed onto the buyers??....

that's the whole problem isn't it...the entire supply chain delivering houses from councils to builders has just passed it on...until the buyer cant really take much more without ultra low interest rates...

the easy decisions become the hard decisions later...and we have taken a lot of the easy decisions

NZ is facing a massive hole to climb out of

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Yes, I have never seen so many restrictions in the market to affordability as there is now.

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DP

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Increase of 50% and reduce of 3%, no comparison but always mentioned as if market turned back to south.
Wait spring is coming and this time it will rocket to moon. As the policy makers are still the same & not satisfied with growth.

Also there will be no interest rate hike (not more than.25 basis) it's just a hoax.

Property Owners: We want more....
Young Kiwi's, Renters & FHB's: For god sake stop this madness where we will go..
Labour/RBNZ: Go to hell, we are sorted..

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They'll still vote Labour.

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Interest rates rise. Mortgage servicing and rents rise.House prices flatten or decine slightly. Disposable incomes reduce. People start demanding more money from their employers. Public sector caves first. Private sector follows. Then something Macro Bad happens. Interest rates are cut to stimulate economy. Those with secure jobs and incomes boosted during higher interest rate period can now service more debt. They bid up house prices to upgrade or buy in. Rinse and repeat.

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Labour will just expand Working for Families and Accommodation Subsidies. Failing that they'll just directly give employers money .

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We are already seeing FHB and others that have purchased off the plan failing to get finance when settlement is due, due to the rising build cost from the original budget and/or banks' tightening of lending criteria.

At this present point, developers don't mind taking the property back (minus fees charged to the purchaser) as they can easily sell it on for more.

But the day that comes they can't find another buyer, then they will insist the original purchaser settles. How the purchaser does that will be up to them.

A sign of things to come?

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Yep, I’m hearing exactly that from a builder friend of mine. The price keeps going up and the purchaser is tearing their hair out because they are already committed yet don’t know if they will be able to afford the building on completion. Scary position to be in for both parties

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If they sign a contract to buy, how can the price rise on it? Or is there something in the contract that allows them to increase their prices? Apparently overseas, building material prices are going back to more normal levels as supply chains get back to normal

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My father is building at the moment. The builder has already tried wriggling out of the fixed price contract. I believe they're going to have to come to some compromises for materials in the PC sums.

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Was talking to chippie mate 2 days ago and he said Carters (but the other suppliers are the same) are telling him to expect 10% price rises every 3 months.

He's pulling his hair out trying to figure out fixed price contract quotes.

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Slightly off key here, but, my partner just sold her home at Mount Maunganui.
It went to auction but didn't meet reserve so passed out for negotiation.
So, she eventually agrees a price with the highest bidder and I thought, ok lets sign then get going, but, nooo it goes back into auction room just encase someone else wants to bid.
I asked an agent there if the stats record this being sold at auction, he said yes!? One way to inflate your record of 'sold at auction'

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That's the way many auctions go. It's a tactic to set a very high reserve price in order to enter this very scenario. It's kind of annoying, but there you go.

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Thats perfectly normal at auction, if you attended a few you would know that already. Thats just one of many quirks at Auction, it really pays to go and sit through a few of them before you buy or sell at auction.

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It's only normal because buyers allow it to happen. We've refused to buy if they re-start the auction. The Agents will fall over in panic and threaten all sorts of things like, ooh, you'll be in a multi-offer, which is nonsense because at this point the vendor wants a clean, cash, unconditional deal. Stand your ground and negotiate 'off the floor'. It is possible.

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If an agent tells me I am in a multi offer, I just pull out. They then have to tell the other buyer that it is no longer a multi offer.

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Sorry what is a revelation about this?

Standard practice to put it out to the market again at an auction.

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New Zealand total value of all exports FY 2020 86 Bln. Assume a generous 25% total gross margin. That is 21.5 BLN. Divided by the total 4.9 mln population. Thats about 4 k each. For the YE Dec 2020. NZ house values increased 200 Bln. Thats 40k each !!!

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Every winter is a turning point.

Nothing like anticipating the arrival of a new season.

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House prices could fall 10/20% and they would still be too expensive.

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If house prices fell, and fell 10 - 20%, why would they stop there?

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Vote for Jacinda Arden......get honour of working three jobs to afford a house....

https://m.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=ByMqc2lg5SQ

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This article is a paid article by real estate agents to lure more gullible first home buyers into the inflated market. They want to tell them that already inflated prices have stabslised and people should get into the market and buy. Buyers beware.

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The inflated prices have hopefully stabilised, we couldn't possibly go on for another year or even 6 months at the current rate of growth. You don't seriously still think prices are going to fall now do you ? Real Inflation is now going ballistic in every sense of the word, building materials costs alone will see a 15% house price increase in 2022. The odds of a house price fall next year are like 0 to 5%. There will have to be some epic event that at this point in time nobody could see coming. Smart FHB are already in the market, there must be very few left by now as the rising cost and interest rate rises have cut the remainder out of the market. The cards have been delt already, time to play the game.

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