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No sign of any change in direction in the auction rooms - Reserve Bank announcement on interest rates will be the next big test

No sign of any change in direction in the auction rooms - Reserve Bank announcement on interest rates will be the next big test

Residential auction activity has remained on a remarkably even keel so far this winter with both the number of properties being auctioned each week and the sales rates being achieved remaining within a fairly tight band, particularly during July.

Over the seven weeks from June 7 to July 25 the number of properties offered each week at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz ranged from 214 to 268.

For six of those weeks the sales rate was between 60% and 67%, with a brief jump in the week of June 28 to July 4 when it edged up to 72%.

Over the four weeks from June 28 to 25 July an average of 249 properties a week were offered at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz. The average sales rate was exactly two thirds (67%).

The charts below show the trends for the numbers of properties being offered and sold and the sales rates.

For the comparable four weeks of last year (June 29 - July 27, 2020) an average of 223 properties a week were being offered at auction and the average sales rate was just over half (54%).

The numbers suggest that while there has been a seasonal dip in auction activity over winter, demand from buyers remains firm.

However the market may be tested again in a few weeks with an announcement on interest rates expected from the Reserve Bank on August 18.

Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, and the results achieved, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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20 Comments

I expect median values will increase another 5-10% over spring and summer. Around a 5% increase in the HPI.

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Everyone wants a slice of New Zealand - or a bigger slice.......

TTP

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I agree, it will keep going up between now and the end of summer 2022.

I just realised my profits from a sale of a newly built home - 260k in the pocket. I've purchased another off the plans, 50k deposit, and expect to make a healthy profit when it is built. Just within 2 weeks of signing up, prices in the area have risen 50k where I am. Safe as houses.

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What sort of deductions can you get on the CGT? Real estate commission must be at least?

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lol, tell it to the foreign buyers exiting the market.

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RBNZ will make a big announcement on the 18th August...yeah right. Don't believe the hype. What are they going to do, OCR increase 0.25%? Introduce DTI at 10+? Release another letter to Robertson shifting the blame? It will be the same old same old...zero action & zero accountability.

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Exactly. So prices will keep nudging higher, until there is some kind of international financial crisis.

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Coming soon -"the next international financial crisis", starring USA who have lived beyond their means since 1990. Guest stars - MSM and FUD..book your tickets early should be a sell out.

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"......prices will keep nudging higher, until there is some kind of international financial crisis......."

I recall that people were saying exactly that prior to the onset of Covid.

Were these people correct?

The reality is that in tough economic times, people prefer tangible assets - and few commodities are more durable than good old land and buildings.

TTP

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Another level 4 lockdown and expect prices to sky rocket even more than what we think is possible at this stage.

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Interest rates are slowly rising and the market will cool. Relax everyone.

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nktokyo
Housing affordability to become one of mortgage affordability.

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Yes the banks are already moving without the help of the RBNZ.

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Just an act by the banks to make people think they are being proactive.

Don't forget folks, new Auckland CVs come out in October... hello to more leverage to keep the rocket rocketing!

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Is anyone surprised? This is a supply/demand issue. Economics 101. All these other things like "record low interest rates" are just additional fuel to the burning fire which is lack of supply and high demand from FHB/Investors. Sprinkle in a pandemic which restricts international people movement, the inability to spend money on other things like travel experiences, and people being smarter with their money by investing in assets (stocks/houses/cash/etc.), you now have a perfect cocktail of high housing prices.

Even if Orr raises the interest rates to 1% next month, it won't do nothing. It will slow the activity down, but guess what, it will just shoot right back up again.

If you want to crash the housing prices, raise the interest rates to over 8% by the end of this year. What you then do is you force people to default on their mortgages because they can't service the high interest rates any longer. But then of course you hurt many FHB's who saved a long time to afford a home these last 2 years, and the gainers will be investors because they can easily scoop the FHB's properties up at a discount. Another way is that you restrict investment properties. No one can have more than 1-2 properties. Anything above that becomes illegal. I'm sure that will crash the housing market down - and many investors will lose out. But of course, no politician would want this. That is the only way you can crash this party.

Sorry to those who are working hard to afford their first home. The reality is, if you can't get in now, you will have to save even harder later because it's only going to go up unless some dramatic life-changing decisions are made.

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Even the RBNZ is not that stupid to raise the OCR to those levels. I'm expecting it to drift between 1 and 2% for years to come. Eventually the USA is going to collapse but nothing to see here till then, move along.

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It will take a while for the USA to collapse. Until the dominance of the USD currency is challenged, no country will let it happen.

I wonder which currency will be the next superpower?

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Interest will not rise to the point it hurts, as it is dictated by external forces, the market will at least increase 15% over spring and summer. The homelessness will also increase multiple folds.
Govt & RBNZ will shift the blame & paid media will not ask any question.

We shouldn't blame Orr now, as if he is incompetent than it's Govt. responsibility to say him good bye with all due respect, but that is also not happening. Clearly proven it's political depth and common sense which is needed to run the govt. not communication effectiveness.

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Nothing surprising.

Mr Orr will do nothing so chill, the party will keep on with booze supplied by Orr and Jacinda

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better if the reserve bank puts the brakes on now when we are still a long way till the election,there would be a few skidmarks for investors that nobody cares about,and hardship for a few FHBs.but in general levelling house prices is vital if we want a fair society.

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