The number of NZ citizens returning to NZ long-term fell to a record low in February

Property / news

Fewer expatriate New Zealanders are returning home but there are also fewer NZ citizens leaving long-term

12th Apr 22, 1:18pm by Greg Ninness

The number of New Zealand citizens arriving back in this country on a long-term basis hit a record low in February.

In February this year just 683 NZ citizens returned long-term compared to 2429 in February 2021, and 3858 in February 2020, according to Statistics NZ.

That was the lowest number of NZ citizens returning long-term in any month of the year since Statistics NZ began publishing the figures in 2001.

The latest migration figures also show the number of NZ citizens leaving on a long-term basis is less than half what it was three years ago, before the Covid pandemic struck.

In February just 1228 NZ citizens left long-term, down from 1998 in February last year, 2240 in February 2020 and 2984 in February 2019.

Prior to February 2019 the number of NZ citizens leaving long-term was consistently above 3000 a month, so the numbers remain well down from that.

Over the 12 months to the end of February this country had a net gain of just 2056 NZ citizens due to long-term migration (excluding short-term trips), down from 19,595 in the year to February 2021 and 6585 in the year to February 2020.

That suggests the numbers of New Zealanders leaving and arriving back long-term is now reasonably well balanced.

Bigger changes have occurred in the migration patterns for non-NZ citizens.

In February just 1331 non-NZ citizens arrived long-term, down from 2573 in February 2021 and 17,215 in February 2020.

Those numbers were partially offset by 1379 non-NZ citizens who departed long-term in February this year, which was also well down from the 3896 departures in February 2021 and 4206 in February 2020.

That means the net long-term gain or loss of non-NZ citizens dropped from a net gain of 13,009 in February 2020 to a net loss of 1323 in February 2021, and a net loss of just 48 in February this year.

So the ebb and flow of non-NZ migrants into and out of the country is currently also finely balanced.

The comment stream on this article is now closed.

Net long term migration

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Source: Statistics NZ

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61 Comments

by Jonny_Utah | 12th Apr 22, 1:30pm 1649727045

But I was informed that there were hoards of cashed up Kiwis living abroad just waiting for the MHQ regime

by Pragmatist | 12th Apr 22, 1:51pm 1649728278

The comments section here would have you believe every IT worker under 30 was lining up to board a plane to Oz or beyond too. Perhaps the only conclusion to be drawn is that the comments section here has a strong resembalance to a sewage pond?

by Kjeldorian | 12th Apr 22, 2:08pm 1649729284

Not just every IT worker, anyone with a pulse under 30.

I agree with your conclusion.

by Just Some Advice | 12th Apr 22, 3:55pm 1649735717

Judging by the posts below, it would seem the "comments section" are correct.

by Pragmatist | 12th Apr 22, 4:20pm 1649737253

A huge amount of selection bias in that sample. Imagine what it would look like if every reader that wasn't leaving posted "I'm staying"...

by Just Some Advice | 12th Apr 22, 4:27pm 1649737629

Perhaps, I guess they're too busy working at the sewage pond to reply.

by Pragmatist | 12th Apr 22, 4:49pm 1649738949

head, sand , buried..

by Gummy Bear Hero | 12th Apr 22, 7:02pm 1649746968

... whew ! ... just washed the poo & fat balls off ... yes , I'm staying .... 3 & a half more years ....

by Flying high | 12th Apr 22, 9:10pm 1649754637

TTP and his 4 interest.co aliases are staying

by rudder_nz | 12th Apr 22, 2:47pm 1649731653

I am a developer as are many of my friends. So far 3 have become fully remote workers for Aussie companies in the last 12 months. My brother is now fully remote for a US company. So IT workers working for foreign companies but remaining in NZ seems to be happening more often amongst my cohort.

by JustAnOpinion | 12th Apr 22, 3:21pm 1649733706

This. Also as I am in a role where I am buying development services - its bone dry here in NZ, all the local shops are working for US West Coast development shops for BIG day rates (in NZD) So we cannot compete. As a result development is slower that it should be and our productivity is not as high as it could be.

by CapitalNone | 12th Apr 22, 6:04pm 1649743447

Yes - Im in this boat. Just started working for company fully remote in Oz. Would be interesting if NZ companies were doing the same but doubt they'd pay enough to tempt in the Ozzies as their IT job market seems to be buzzing.

by alphabeatrium | 13th Apr 22, 8:51am 1649796688

I started doing this in the second lockdown. Seems good and bad for the local economy: it's essentially exporting labour time and brings money into the local economy, but it hurts the productivity of local firms that could use the developers, and pushes up the pay of the developers working for NZ firms who now need to compete against Australian firms (again, this is both good and bad depending on who you are in this equation).

by blobbles | 13th Apr 22, 9:06am 1649797566

Yep, seems to be only hands on workers going at the moment. Have had 2 BAs leave for Aus and another for UK where I am. Most devs are staying put and only a couple I know are working offshore but living here. Local wages mostly can't compete and NZ bosses mostly still want people in the office and are reluctant to have full time WFH policies. Which is shooting yourself in the foot, considering we all just proved we can WFH and still be productive in the last 2 years. Classic parochial NZ thinking people need to be in the office to do work, I probably do twice the work at home than at work - less distractions (other than this website!).

by Fluffybunny | 17th Apr 22, 8:57am 1650142650

Our CEO is currently trying to get everyone back in the office. But says 50/50 is OK. No point in coming into the office if half the company is randomly in or out on any given day.

Add the increase costs of travel and its climate impact. Wfh is here to stay.

by teeitup | 12th Apr 22, 1:44pm 1649727894

The telling data will be after May/June/July this year, when most of the young people I know (myself included) will be leaving NZ for their OE.

What I'm seeing is a massive backlog of young NZers who had their travel delayed, now starting to head off. The huge movement is then inspiring others (who would have stayed) to leave because there'll be not much left in NZ for them (friends, affordable housing).

by sam-s | 12th Apr 22, 2:05pm 1649729128

I'm off next week.

by northman46 | 12th Apr 22, 3:42pm 1649734937

Six months left on my sentence. Can't wait though.

(and best of luck to you sam-s).

by Theoracle | 12th Apr 22, 8:22pm 1649751722

167 days and counting.

Not coming back this time.

Biggest mistake ever was coming back.

by imhenry | 13th Apr 22, 7:26am 1649791583

Bye, hand back your passport

by northman46 | 13th Apr 22, 8:43am 1649796220

No.

Edit: They're mostly young people wanting to earn more, reduce cost of living, live better, experience the world, own a home or want the best for their starting out families. The biggest crime they've committed is not liking NZ. Is that grounds for revoking somebody's citizenship these days? They're not leaving to go to fight for ISIS.

by RickStrauss | 13th Apr 22, 9:53am 1649800424

Best thing NZ could do is work on those problems - housing and living costs vs. wages - in order to attract talent back. So long as we keep simply transferring working folks' wealth upwards to asset owners it undermines the case for in-demand people to come to or stay in NZ.

by HW2 | 13th Apr 22, 8:27am 1649795256

The response from northman says it all :)

by Fluffybunny | 17th Apr 22, 9:03am 1650143003

What a shit comment.

People are mobile, especially talent. And over the last few years we've been building our society to suit older asset rich retirees.

I came back in 2018 after several years away and honestly it made me sad to see what the country had turned into.

Cramped, overpriced, greedy, flashy.

by Jonny_Utah | 12th Apr 22, 2:39pm 1649731150

Good for you Sam, what's the plan?

by sam-s | 13th Apr 22, 8:35am 1649795715

Off to Aussie!

by teeitup | 12th Apr 22, 2:51pm 1649731870

Just over 2 months here - can't wait.

Might even buy a house in a major centre in Europe, far cheaper than here and I don't even need a deposit at all. There's protection against negative equity too so it's the best way for me to get on the housing ladder!

by HW2 | 13th Apr 22, 6:47am 1649789236

Which country? Relatives just bought a small apt in Amsterdam it cost over 600 euros and needed their MAD bank for 30nzd

by teeitup | 13th Apr 22, 11:00am 1649804452

Hit the nail on the head with Amsterdam. Not quite a 0% deposit (something like 2-3%) but not much at all when you compare to 20% here. $800k NZD for an average home there vs $1.3mil NZD here in Auckland.

by RickStrauss | 12th Apr 22, 2:06pm 1649729210

The absolute entitlement of these young whippersnappers, refusing to stick around to have their wealth extracted from them and passed to older asset owners!

by General Comment | 12th Apr 22, 3:15pm 1649733343

I see this as normal service resuming. A lot of my friends headed overseas for a few years to make a name for themselves around the turn of the century (wow that makes me sound old) while I stayed here and took holidays overseas instead. The Y2K bug was making everyone a bunch of easy money, it was a great time to make financial headway.

Eventually most came back to raise families, but all thoroughly enjoyed their time abroad. Whether you choose to return, or find a whole new life in a foreign land, I wish you the very best. Life is short, tackle it head-on.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 12th Apr 22, 1:53pm 1649728388

... who'd have thunk it , just because the government locked Kiwi citizens out of returning to their nation of birth for nearly 2 years , those ingrates refuse to return now ...

Gosh ... well , I am surprised .... Jacinda , is there any way we can blame John Key & Bill English for this ?

by Zaphod The Flatulant | 12th Apr 22, 2:01pm 1649728878

Or more likely they just wanted to come back for a wedding, friends birthday, holiday or (sadly) a funeral, but most were NOT suddenly deciding to come home.

by RickStrauss | 12th Apr 22, 3:03pm 1649732600

Yeah, it's totally about pandemic impracticalities, not costs of housing and living relative to wages.

by unaha-closp | 13th Apr 22, 9:16am 1649798178

Those are two interrelated things. NZ's COVID response was onerous public measures to actively retard our economy whilst printing cheap debt. Asset price bubble then on to stagflation is the result.

by RickStrauss | 13th Apr 22, 9:55am 1649800536

Transferring wealth from wages and savings to assets has been an ongoing feature, only made more visibly obvious and odious in the last two years.

by Baywatch | 12th Apr 22, 2:12pm 1649729522

My nephew flew out last week back to UK, brother leaves Saturday and taking his Porsche with him. Can't recall anyone arriving...?

by Theoracle | 12th Apr 22, 8:28pm 1649752136

I'm shipping my car too. Worth more in Aus.

by Brock Landers | 12th Apr 22, 8:37pm 1649752658

You have to pay GST importing a vehicle into Australia though.

by sam-s | 13th Apr 22, 8:36am 1649795813

What's it costing you to ship it?

by Esprit | 13th Apr 22, 1:36pm 1649813782

Your brother is an idiot. Porsches are moonbeam money in the NZ market compared to the UK, he's throwing away money by not selling it here and buying one when he gets back to the UK. You can buy a new Porsche in the UK, export it to NZ, use it for a year and sell it in NZ as a used car with 10,000km on the clock for more than your overall outlay.

by nktokyo | 12th Apr 22, 2:20pm 1649730049

I went in my 20's. Glad I did, I did interesting work and earned well.

by vDub | 12th Apr 22, 2:53pm 1649732023

Myself and my wife settled on the sale of our house in Auckland last month. No one at the show homes and only sold as there was one interested buyer, felt like we were lucky enough to offload when the market had already turned. Resigned and now heading back to the UK. My whole family have done the same in the last 3 months.

by RickStrauss | 12th Apr 22, 3:28pm 1649734080

A friend of mine moved to NZ a couple of years back and bought a house shortly before the Reserve Bank went crazy pumping the market. For family reasons they had to put their life in NZ on hold and move back to their country of origin, and sold the house in November last year. He basically received $600k tax-free from Reserve Bank and govt policy, which they've taken back to their country of origin.

Sort of a reversal of the old days when people used to move from NZ to UK, then bring back money from work and housing.

by lekkerbydiesee | 12th Apr 22, 6:40pm 1649745642

Question: Where is the capital of New Zealand?

Answer. Its mostly in China, Australia and the UK. ;)

by HistoryRepeats | 12th Apr 22, 2:58pm 1649732283

Planning to move to either Australia or UK later in the year once air travel becomes a bit easier.

by imhenry | 13th Apr 22, 7:32am 1649791953

Say thank you Jacinda

by james108 | 12th Apr 22, 3:01pm 1649732490

Presumably this stat is impacted due to people delaying arrival in to march to avoid MIQ?

Family members did the above.

Next few months will be interesting.

by HW2 | 13th Apr 22, 6:52am 1649789579

Precisely

All those ramping the exo and ignoring the obvious delay might be in for a shock

by lastlegs | 13th Apr 22, 10:27am 1649802462

exactly,and all those moaning poms never actually leave,like the poor they are always with us.

by rastus1 | 12th Apr 22, 4:12pm 1649736734

Just a pause....while they fill up another Boeing full of 501's from Aussie.

by Zen20 | 12th Apr 22, 4:15pm 1649736952

When the war escalates it may cause the odd ewe-turn

by HouseMouse | 12th Apr 22, 4:37pm 1649738248

As usual, a good comment.

most seem to be assuming the war will not significantly escalate. Probably a premature conclusion.

by vDub | 12th Apr 22, 5:08pm 1649740126

If the war escalates you don’t want to be living on it as we are all done. After two years of lockdown most people refuse to live in fear any longer, live for today, not for the maybe.

by Independent_Observer | 12th Apr 22, 10:58pm 1649761088

Dalio’s comment today on social media indicated that he thinks the Ukraine conflict is just the start of something much larger.

by Fairlyfrank | 12th Apr 22, 5:27pm 1649741268

More than offset by the government offering of residency to 160000 plus already here .

by Brock Landers | 12th Apr 22, 6:43pm 1649745824

The trickle in February will soon turn into a torrent as skilled professionals flee this dystopian cul-de-sac of a country. ✈️✅

It's going to become increasingly difficult to find enough net taxpayers to support the remaining boomers and bludgers.

by Flying high | 12th Apr 22, 9:24pm 1649755440

In Feb the foreign borders were already open in the rest of the world so anyone could have freely left at that stage. What has changed since then is the NZ borders have opened up with MIQ being dropped firstly for kiwis stuck in Oz. Just today we are now welcoming australians here, no MIQ and no self iso. Non visa waiver countries incl India and China still cannot get on a plane and come here, wtf

by RickStrauss | 13th Apr 22, 9:57am 1649800623

Having transferred most wealth to older folks' assets, will the country finally be forced to look to recapture some of that to pay for their upkeep?

by Flying high | 12th Apr 22, 9:16pm 1649755012

"Finely balanced"

Not like the Govts budget

by lekkerbydiesee | 13th Apr 22, 9:30am 1649799057

This story ran on Newshub last night and not one person said, people want to leave because high property prices prevent them from forming a family household. so frustrating, because it is certainly true to some extent.