There was almost no impact on New Zealand's population from migration in April, with the numbers of people arriving into and departing long-term, almost equally balanced.
The latest migration figures from Statistics NZ show 4605 people of all citizenships arrived long-term in April, while 4686 departed long-term, giving a net loss of just 81 people for the month.
The figures also show there hasn't been a significant loss of NZ citizens to other countries, at least not yet.
In April, 2059 NZ citizens departed these shores long-term, while 1895 arrived back long-term, giving a net loss of 164 NZ citizens for the month.
The numbers are even more finely balanced for non-NZ citizens, with 2710 arriving long-term in April, and 2627 departing long-term, giving a net gain of just 83 for the month.
Overall, the figures suggest migration flows in both directions remained subdued in April. There was neither a rush of people coming into the country long-term, nor a rush of people leaving.
On an annual basis NZ is still losing more people through migration than it's gaining, with a net loss of 8668 in the 12 months to the end of April.
The interactive chart below shows the long-term annual migration trend, with population growth from migration peaking with a net gain of 91,680 in the 12 months to March 2020, then declining very rapidly and tipping into negative territory in March 2021.
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Net long term migration
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28 Comments
Meanwhile
Tourism and hospitality won a 12-month concession, reducing the $27 per hour minimum pay rate for essential skills visas to $25 until April next year, this will help the sector to transition to new immigration settings.
Some findings from a recent survey of hospitality workers in NZ:
- 13 percent were receiving pay for fewer hours than actually worked
- 18 percent were not receiving the minimum wage
- 22 percent did not get the correct holiday pay
- 22 percent were not getting time off or correct pay for working statutory holidays
And this survey was done while the borders were still shut and most migrants were on open work permits allowing them to switch jobs and industries easily.
The exploitation should only increase from here on!
It echoes what Prof Stringer's report on exploitation of migrant workers said in Dec 2016. Then it was clearly the National govt at fault with bad policy and virtually no investigation by the labour inspectorate. Now it is the Labour party at fault - they have had six years to tackle the rorts and exploitation that are inherent to low-paid immigration.
Governments plans arent working then.
Arent they supposed to be making everyone leave so its good for the environment.
Save the snails and all that.
Flatlining is good. New Zealand needs to avoid the damage from the previous population explosion. We need a stable population regime.
The damage has already been done - more young Kiwis are leaving NZ quoting high living costs as the key driver.
Blame the pandemic all you want, but if it were not for easy access to cheap workers, NZ businesses (and government) would have been forced to train more locals and invest to operate in high-value sectors instead.
Instead we're living off a third-world economy but consuming goods & services like first-world population.
Read the article please. 2059 left and 1895 arrived in April. Hardly a mass exit. Maybe that doesn't suit your uniformed prejudices.
The great competition is just starting - The competition for people - especially young people.
Very few countries are replacing their population naturally - NZ, UK Japan etc.
When WA is advertising on radio for people to move there, you know the competition is well underway. And we haven't even got to the track, let alone the starting blocks. I fear we will open the gates to immigration - and no one will come.
I hope we will open the gates to immigration - and no one will come!
The talented won't show up but we're still a popular destination for those seeking economic refuge.
Forget better healthcare and infrastructure, the government is working hard to improve all our lives with more Uber drivers and takeaway cooks.
TBF, the kids of those Uber drivers and takeaway cooks will probably be our most valuable citizens in 20 years.
I live in a block of units, next door to two more large blocks of units. Most residents are Indian or Sri Lankan, whole families living in two-bedroom flats. Their kids all play outside together. They are all notably considerate, polite and friendly. I suspect the combination of modest circumstances and ambitious parents will make them exceptional.
Wasnt there supposed to be an avalanche of people exiting the country as soon as the border opened and a yawning gap with arrivals. No it hasn't happened. Will we get an apology from those who insisted there would.
Be patient!
They're just waiting for their new houses to get built.
Or their passports and flights...
What would you like them to apologise for? "Sorry, we expected the government to do better for young people"? How have you been in any way wronged to the point of it warranting some sort of apology.
An apology is made in premise of forgiveness. If you're seeking an apology, your looking to forgive. So the inverse of words to what is said here is that you are seeking to forgive those on the internet who made a prediction which did not to come to fruition.
What a weird world we live in where people can't accurately predict the future.
They are leaving the country in droves. https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-arrival…
It can take some time to get organised and wind up one's affairs before emigrating. Plus travel is still a bit chaotic due to understaffing and ongoing restrictions. Perhaps for many Kiwis, like myself, it will be later in the year before they make their move.
I'd wait until July onward figures when airline routes are opened up more fully and when winter hits. Still expecting a consistent net loss overall.
Seems at odds with the airlines claiming lack of arrivals is making it difficult to accommodate the demand for flights out .
Lies, damn lies & statistics. Add media. Stir. Result: A cloudy opaqueness.
Stats on flights from customs so far this year:
Jan (in)15751 (out)22544
Feb (in)16195 (out)24533
Mar (in)65864 (out)59868
Apr (in)125282 (out)141592
May (in)169038 (out)175457
YTD: (in)392130 (out) 423994
Plus, Jun (in)73782 (out)82301, or -8519
It would seem there's almost 40,000 people on overseas trips then, I guess. Approximately 100 plane loads, or 3/day more leaving than arriving during May (if the earlier ones returned)? Seems reasonable. Also, less than 1% of the population.
For the year: 43 days had positive migration, mostly in March (was that when people locked out were able to return?).
Pensioners in, young workers out. Why would you come here. Its so expensive. A bunch of the recent immigrants who are well traveled, are saying traveling around NZ is one of the most expensive experiences out there. Especially the South island.
Migrate to NZ, and pay the landlord class's rent, yield and price subsidies, and pension benefits.
Since people's intentions are no longer collected by departure cards at the airport, all net migration figures are only guestimates based on a predictive model, and only become fact when those who have been out of the country for longer than 16 months fail to return.
"Statistics produced using the new outcomes-based approach will have inherent uncertainty until 16 months have passed and enough time has elapsed to deterministically classify all crossings. At this point, migration estimates will change from provisional to final estimates. The provisional migration estimates have uncertainty due to the predictive modelling component of the method. Because ‘uncertain’ border crossings are assigned a probability of being a long-term movement or not, it is possible that the migration status picked from the probabilities in the aggregation and estimation step of the methodology is incorrect."
https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Methods/Update-on-the-developm…
If you look at the ACTUAL departures and arrivals, then the number shows the complete opposite - with a net loss of 16,310 people in April, 6,419 people in May, and already 9,519 people having left in the first 12 days of June. I'm sure many of those are not planning on returning.
https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-arrival…
Very interesting - I'm looking forward to seeing the actual numbers once they're available.
It's strange how the border movements numbers are a complete contrast to this article. I mean it's one thing to count "citizens" arrivals vs departures, but it's not just citizens that occupy dwellings.
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