CoreLogic says housing market at a turning point as more properties sell at a loss

What begins?

2 people sell their house for less than they bought it for.

98 people sell their house for more than they bought it for.

Turangi a cheaper version of Taupo

Grab that trout fishing hidy hole at the bottom   !!!!

Hey Averageman. Most agents can smell timewasting tyre kickers a mile off. But in your defence, you are behaving as if you think the market bottom is nowhere near the current figures being asked. Very sensible.

Because... they report that 98 out of 100 people sell their house at a profit ???

Lol

Since the Royal Commission they also have a considerable duty of care to their clients.    Less so with Investors but for FTBers they do not want to see TVNZ 6pm news of them being thrown into the street.   Things have changed, anyone having to to sell late 21 just did an Auction.  With the gap between vendor expectations and buyers so wide even open homes will become pointless soon.

Show me a statistic that's 100% made up

As the housing crash continues more people will see deposits disappear and depending on when they purchased negative equity comes into play.Anyone who purchased a property in last five years will see any paper profits disappear.

A camper van plated with rare metals? I don’t know, but it’s not real estate. And this article/report certainly doesn’t state as such.

Everyone’s losing, it’s just that some have further to go until they’re in the red, because they bought earlier in the bull market. Give it time.

a caravan

I love this no-nonsense yet pertinent answer Yvil 

Surely you realise this is not true? We know that the value of houses has fallen from house price series like REINZ and CoreLogic. 

This data does not reflect house prices rising, it just reflects the fact that most houses sold today have been held for more than a year. It tells us very little about the current or recent direction of prices. 

Even in the teeth of the Covid stock crash I could have sold many of my shares at a profit because I'd held them for a while. This doesn't change the fact that most of them were worth 20-30% less than a couple of months prior. 

"a 98% chance of going up in value in a downturn"

Been drinking before lunch Yvil?

(nothing goes up in value in a downturn...)

Show me another financial vehicle that gets so much direct and indirect government support yet still gets to call itself an investment not a welfare scheme.

Also the relevance of the profit is questionable. Sure if you’re an investor cashing up, and have held the property for a sustained period. You’d still get a profit out of it, but how many will choose to sell? The rest are OOs buying back into the same market where that profit pays for the next house and on it goes. 

What we're seeing is land values tumbling as developers exit the market. In apartments you are paying for the building mostly, which still costs the same if not more to construct. Hence during the COVID boom of 2020-2021 most apartments didn't increase as much in value, so will be slower to fall in this market. 

Gee 8 months and still nothing of significance. You're probably wishing the same for your share portfolio 

I think he’s totally right.

But a lot of talking heads with vested interests are talking down the chances of a hard landing. Liam Dann at the Herald is one of the worst offenders.

Sounds right. Summary is that both wages and inflation are both happily rising together (too much). Spending still too high. Thus inflation will be persistent.  The way out is continued, ever larger ocr rises. And the longer it all goes on the greater the risk of a serious downturn.

I don't read too much negativity. Just a mixture of observing a major cost for many people falling (surely good news?) and denial that this is really occurring. 

You are 100% right. Its the over use of leverage that's the problem. How much leverage is really in play one may ask. Response - look at the profits the banks are making - that's how much. And when the cost of that servicing increases by a factor of 3-4x then you have a real issue with leverage turning from a hot air balloon to a millstone. One that cant be removed.

Very going point made above. Shares are normally owned without leverage, which means you can loose it without the bank chasing you. Property is all leveraged to the wazoo, hence the problem.

Agreed, as rates continue to climb the rollover of loans in the next 24 months will be were reality really arrives as you face a 3-4x payment increase. but a big chunk of loans were rolling before the end of 2022. These will have followed TA speculation workshop advise and fixed for one year for the lowest rate, banking on National reversing all of Labour's changes.

I think it will be all good unless your only option on your mortgage when it comes due starts with an "8", then the shit hits the fan. The can is still being kicked down the road, you have had plenty of time to refix a 3 to 5 year mortgage. You have not "Lost" money on your house unless you sell it and rent, its simply going to turn around and recover. All you need to do is buy the one house that you live in and hang onto it, pretty simple.

Two camps for sure.

The speculative debt to the moon houses never go down crowd, and the math doesn't make sense and we are printing debt at the expense of future taxpayers to bailout speculator and bank profit crowd.

Quite different indeed.

Do you have a property portfolio Nifty?

Yes jump on the property investor pages - they're all experts on financial risk matters, but their day job is mechanic, primary school teacher, nurse etc and they're happily telling others that its always a good time to buy another rental. 

yes and they are all speaking about a crash. does that mean its time buy?