Housing market starting summer selling season with high levels of stock for sale

A sales volume jump seems unlikely given the banks stress testing new mortgages at considerably higher rates and the trend of rising mortgage rates. 

Will be interesting to see where listing levels are come the end of summer.

overall activity levels could be lower this summer than in previous years.

No sht? (Sarc)

The new listings are down on previous Octobers in most places, but despite that due to the low volume of sales occurring the overall amount of stock is hugely up on previous Octobers.

Supply is smothering demand. Prices will need to fall to balance the two. 

Browsing Interests auction data it's still patchy. Some well presented properties selling at or above RV, a handful each week below but most passed in. The HPI data will be intriguing.

Nothing happened in Spring, now we look forward to Summer for some miracle

"High levels of stock" then the article describes a stock level 25% lower than last year.  It's too early for this.

I think people with property who do not need to sell will wait for stability, even a moron can understand prices are going down at the moment, this is at its base a serviceability issue.

An excess supply of housing, who would have thought. It wasn't that long ago we were being told by every spruiker and his dog that this could never happen? 

Stock up. Interest rates up. Unsold for rent up.  Inflation everything up. Auction failure up. Spruiker gloating down. 

Sales down. Prices down. Immigration down.

The speculative are holding on thinking it will return to last year.

Good. Luck.

The property market will always trend upwards in the long term. Over the next few months we'll see growth return to about 15% for the year. There simply aren't enough houses to meet demand. Buyers need to be quick;  avocado prices are only going up from here and will become unaffordable so fhbs need to use that money to get on the housing ladder as soon as possible or their lives will be miserable, and their finances may never recover.

It is amazing to me that there is not more panic yet.

If people were rational, they would be trying to get out now, before the rush.

Seems pretty clear now that people will try to hold on... and hold on... and then all be forced to try and sell at once.

There must be thousands and thousands of people that cannot afford the new mortgage rates but are still standing around with their head in the sand.

The longer that people delay, the bigger the crush at the exits will be.    The price falls will be brutal.   Knowing how stupid we all are, we will probably vote a National govt in, just in.time to hawk off our houses to foreign interests for cents on the dollar.

Anecdotal I know, but there are now three nice townhouses for sale in my little subdivision here in Christchurch.

Two private sale, one with an estate agent company I've never heard of before (name escapes me).  These aren't rubbish Williams/Wolfbrook style houses - all three are well-appointed, three bedroom, double garage and nice spec and in a central location. 

The two private sale ones have been listed for a couple of months now, with no signs of any interest. Prior to the slowdown, anything in this area was shifting within a week or two of listing. 

I think all three vendors are doing themselves a disservice by not having an actual asking price listed. 

Waikato is second in terms of stock with 142%. Clearly reflects the absence of sales, sellers sticking to CV+ prices (from Sep 2021, more or less peak of the market), and buyers being limited on the size of the mortgage they can take due to rising interest rates.

We need a new metric - withdrawn without sale - to really understand the stock/market situation.  The only place I can find this data is to check homes.co.nz after a listing I've watch-listed is withdrawn from realestate.co.nz. 

Surely there must be a better way.  Zillow (US) notes this information in all its listings under a price and tax history tab. The more information buyers have in a slow market - the better for everyone.    

Jump in new residential property listings in October but will it be matched by a jump in sales?

No.

The speculative (debt without clear supporting income) took the risk to do so by themselves. They should also be allowed to accumulate any losses by themselves. Any banks needing to recapitalise from speculative can lean of the profits of their parents. Their recent profits should be helpful.

If the Govt has to bail out a bank, then they take it over as the majority shareholder.

Is this properties being put in the market by people getting a bit freaked out by the rising interest rates, falling prices and slow sales - and they want to shift the houses before their mortgage comes off the low fixed rate it's been on for the last couple of years?

The biggest arseholes in NZ are the developers, who take millions from the country while ruining roads, creating dust storms/ noise/vibration damage,... From 7am to 7pm..  and then crowd people into small sections. 

But!!!   It's not the developers that take the hit! They pre sell the sections to building companies like generation, signature, GJ gardener... These are the guys that will take the fall.

Meanwhile the biggest scum on earth ,the "real estate liars" will cream it thru listing fees and bullshit "marketing packages " but sales will crash and burn . As we👉 are already seeing.