The latest 'Property Report' from Realestate.co.nz reveals rising listing overhang relative to sales, and falling asking prices

I said 2023 was not looking good, not beyond.  If you like buying into a falling market, then sure, 2023 is your year !

In 2023? Would be brave IMO.

Hi DTRH,

Happy New Year!

Are you a PoW, by chance? 💥 

TTP

DTRH… I think your comment is fair. TTP doesn’t like comments that fall outside of his ventures, so he comes out swinging. HW2 is exactly the same. I don’t mind their commentary, I just spar with them because they occasionally come out with witty/funny rebuttals. I think the election is the only hope for the property investors, I don’t think it will make much of a difference if Nat get in personally. Too much downward momentum by then. I think mid 2024 before things flatten 

It won’t necessarily “all depend on interest rates” - we could see rates falling quickly due to some very bad economic reasons and house prices continue to slide with it. Lagging effects of higher rates would also continue to show up in the wider economy for months after rates drop.

HW2, like TTP is a master of self embarrassment in this changed market. Its amusing. When caught in desperation, he just makes stuff up then goes into combat mode when asked for evidence. Truly the master of gaffes.  

Like NZ inflation heading back to 7.8% according to Massey... 

Happy New Year my friend! 

What is CCC ITGUY? 

Yes, the banks should be enforcing credit standards not the central banks.  The problem is that bank management behaves with a very short term perspective (get the big bucks before the music stops) and then bank shareholders have the incentive to exercise a call option given the "too big to fail" idea.  The solution I think is to enforce higher capital requirements on banks (as the RBNZ is in the process of doing, albeit crudely) based on those lending standards and let the banks decide how best to allocate lending.

Because the speculators are holding out for 2021 price while their 2% mortgages hold. Greed greed and more greed. It's not that people dont want to buy....they just cant make it stack.

How many are rolling to 6-7% this year again....oh yeah, most of them. #nosale #nocomission.

Huh?. Listings are sky rocketing...  Sales are plummeting... Get your sentence structure/ Gramma right brah!

It'd be fair to give a few more details on the properties...17P is well renovated and looks to be reclad? No doubt 17O wasn't in great condition at all - homes picture suggest not. Regardless, they're not exactly highly desirable.

Still building there as well...yikes

17P with lock up attached garaging 

17O a carport that looks like straddles the boundary 

ZS just imagine if you or I were using markedly different examples and inferring they are comparable.

Haha yeah our place is down 300k on those crazy estimates!

and to think the rates still won't be enough to fund the huge infrastructure investment needed across the city, ouch!

Pity more the buyers basing their asking prices on them. No one at that time (not even the banks) were questioning the crazy.

Looking at the past 5 years, investors have been setting the price by bidding up homes that typically are in the First House Buyer space.   At the moment they are not active and the market is falling month by month.

I think the biggest price movements will occur once these investors start becoming net sellers.

Unlike FHBers who mainly sell if they are trading up, these investors will be selling to prevent losses overwhelming them. 

They will be more motivated to meet the market than a single home owner who still need accomodation.  

The two most likely buyers for these sales will be FHBers, and .... smarter investors.   I think smarter investors are going to wait until a house beats term deposit rates.

Made several offers in the last two months. Sellers are still firmly in la la land, as are the agents still pushing 2021. #nosale #noincome

You get the feeling more car and boat giveaway’s with house sale are coming, once house price’s are down 20% fear will set in a 20% is much better than waiting for a year and losing 40%. Most people who sold over last few years would have made huge profits but now is the time to give some off that back.

After taxes? 

That's the money needed to buy a house and service the mortgage and raise the family. 

For the last 12 months capital values have fallen MUCH FASTER then your principal would have via repayment  in Auckland.  2023 will be the same, if you wait and buy cheaper you well pay off the house at the same payment rate in 12-15 years....   thats even better HW2       people paying off massive mortgages are enslaved.

Agreed.  If I had a choice, I'd rather put my pay increases over time against a mortgage than towards rent increases. 

Mortgage free at 55, compared to paying rent until you cark it at 75.  What's 20 years of rent worth? $500k in today's terms.  

I'm a very wealthy tenant. I don't feel in the least enslaved. The owner has lost several hundred k on the house I rent and still has to pay the rates, maintenance, and depreciation. Meanwhile my business is booming.

Go the boomers!...  Unlike Gen xyz , we actually worked our ARSES of to earn our money, paid taxes, and the little feckers AKA kids, aka gen xyz get the benefit of our hard work vin our wills!

The boomers saved NZ and are propping up the economy right now.

Spend hard and enjoy boomers and 🖕 to the useless self entitled youth

Plenty i know have bought or are wanting to buy. Many are returning professionals or skilled immigrants whose number will only increase once Labour is gone.

The thought of all that wasted rent for no asset in the end deters most rational people .Perhaps the naysayers are just not rational and anyways ill be buying this year. I suppose that's why they call it a market willing seller meets willing buyer

US home builders now offering discounted interest rates first few years again on new builds.....

No jokes this end , how many have you got to sell cos im likely to be a buyer at the other end of your doom and gloom scenario. Those who sold after GFC in 08 must rue their decision everyday whilst those who bought are in clover as usual .Its people like you who i hope are given as much air time as possible on this subject. Remember that economist Shamabeel  someone who has been going on for years about how irrational the NZ housing market is and how would would always rent as a crash was imminent . It would seem  he was wrong on this matter , your not him are you?