ANZ's economists say demand for housing is once again outstripping supply as immigration numbers surge and the number of new homes being built starts to decline.
"With net migration surging to new highs and the residential construction sector slowing on the back of rising interest rates, new demand for housing is now outstripping new supply," they say in their latest New Zealand Property Focus Report.
"In other words, New Zealand has a widening housing deficit," the report says.
It says this is a marked turnaround from the situation up until the third quarter of last year, when the housing deficit had largely been eroded.
"New Zealand, for the first time in a long time, had roughly enough houses for its population, albeit not always in the right places, with some regions like Tauranga and Queenstown still well short," the report says.
"However new demand for housing outstripped new supply in both Q4 [fourth quarter] 2022 and [first quarter] 2023.
"Together, over these two quarters alone, the shortfall between new housing supply and demand has come in at around 5500 dwellings, taking the net migration numbers at face value.
"With net migration showing no signs of letting up yet, though we assume it will soon, that deficit is likely to keep widening for a while."
However the report also notes that net migration is "notoriously difficult" to forecast.
"But its influence on economic outcomes can be quite meaningful," it says.
"Our forecast is for net migration to ease from recent extremely high levels.
"Clearly, persistently strong net inflows would present upside risks to our housing outlook."
The turnaround in the balance between housing supply and demand is one reason why ANZ is forecasting the Reserve Bank will need to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by another 25 basis points by the end of this year, even though the Reserve Bank itself has said it expects to hold the OCR at its current 5.50% level.
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88 Comments
even though the Reserve Bank itself has said it expects to hold the OCR at its current 5.50% level.
Still waiting for someone to provide a quote from the RBNZ to substantiate this claim...
This is from ANZ's "if's and caveat rich" May-2023 Research Paper;
"Although we have revised our forecast higher, we are not anticipating house prices will take off again. House prices tick along at less than the rate of wage growth in our forecast, seeing ‘real’ house prices continue to gently ease. There are good reasons why we see a firm lid staying on house price inflation: · interest rates are much higher than a year ago, · unemployment is set to rise, and · some highly leveraged investors may be set to offload properties, depending on how interest rates and tax policy evolves"
https://www.anz.co.nz/about-us/economic-markets-research/economic-outlo…
and · some highly leveraged investors may be set to offload properties
Well, I guess they'd know..
FYI, here is one potentially highly leveraged investor selling 12 apartments in Auckland
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/investor-selling-12-auckland-apartments-…
How many more highly leveraged residential property owners will be unable to hold on?
FYI,
Over 22,100 homes are owned by an elite class of large investors who each own more than 20 properties, new analysis by property data company Valocity reveals.
That’s the equivalent of Invercargill or Nelson, owned by 906 people or private companies, whose portfolios continue to grow.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/30041526…
Isnt that what Labour wants? The corporatisation of the rental market, by pushing Mum & Dad investors out, and replacing them with large corporate owners who by virtue of their size and pricing power suck up ten times the tax breaks and Govt subsidies that individual investors ever did.
If the residents of NZ want to encourage more residential housing ownership by residential owner occupiers then it comes down to government priorities and government policies.
Singapore focuses on encouraging resident owner occupiers and less on owners of multiple houses, non resident owners with their tax policies.
1) Property taxes (which we call rates)
i) note that they differentiate between owner occupied and non owner occupied,
ii) and they are on progressive rates - the higher the inputed rent, the higher the rate to determine property taxes (which we call them rates in NZ)
https://www.gov.sg/article/property-tax-on-residential-property
https://www.iras.gov.sg/taxes/property-tax/property-owners/property-tax-rates
Imagine bringing in a progressive rate system in NZ to calculate rates.
2) Stamp duty is differentiated between
1) citizens vs residents vs non resident buyers
2) first, or any property beyond their first property
https://www.propertyguru.com.sg/mortgage/calculators/stamp-duty
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1643083095376285698?s=20
Singapore focuses on encouraging resident owner occupiers and less on owners of multiple houses, non resident owners with their tax policies.
They might, but it hasn't stopped the real-estate being unaffordable, and many young Singaporeans want to bail.
Every country has paper legislation to encourage owner occupiers, but few (none) actually manage to deliver affordability.
the Singapore brand of public housing is uniquely different. The flats spell home for over 80% of Singapore's resident population, of which, about 90% own their home
https://www.hdb.gov.sg/about-us/our-role/public-housing-a-singapore-icon
But not the land it's on.
That's effectively how you make property more affordable, offer it on a leasehold basis.
Government here isn’t interested in the idea.
They have all the solutions, or so they say.
Initially it was inferred based on the forward-looking forecasts of the OCR in the MPS for this year. Then Hosking spoke with Robertson or Orr and asked if they thought a rise was likely. IIRC they rated its probability as either 7 or 8 out of 10 being 'No rise.'
Watch the press conference.
Yvil you need to read between the lines mate, its been clearly signalled since way back, the planned peak was 5.50%. I'm expecting this to hold until at least after the election come hell or high water. What happens after the election who knows, Orr will probably get the boot if National/ACT get in anyway. Everyone will have forgotten about the 5.50% next year if Labour get back in because their supporters have the memory of a goldfish and then its open season on rates again. Its almost so boring I cannot stop yawning.
I can smell the leverage from here.
? It's right there in the data from the MPS?
It is a feature, not a bug.
All economies are planned. If not by the state, then by the private interests with the money power to purchase policy from the state.
The banks are the planners of our economy. They make their money through these loans and need to prop up the housing market, preserving current owners and mortgagees at the expense of newcomers.
Debt Slavery is a feature, not a bug of this system. The importing of new wage slaves to expand the labour pool and drive down costs is also a feature, not a bug.
Fundamentally the Big Four Banks must be dismantled and broken into dozens of regional banks, removed from private ownership and their immense power for any of these circumstances to change.
Fundamentally the Big Four Banks must be dismantled and broken into dozens of regional banks, removed from private ownership and their immense power for any of these circumstances to change.
Richard Werner praises the German regional banks for driving productive local economies as opposed to bidding up the prices of existing housing stock as a business model. Coincidentally, the same banks invested in affordable housing development across Eastern Europe. You can guess that the construction of this housing involved German companies, expertise, and know-how.
by Yvil | 30th May 23, 2:29pm - even though the Reserve Bank itself has said it expects to hold the OCR at its current 5.50% level. Still waiting for someone to provide a quote from the RBNZ to substantiate this claim...
Yvil, I read somewhere that when Orr was pressed on a scale of 1-10 on how satisfied he was that OCR would not need to be raised further, he answered with a "7". For the life of me - I cannot find the article!
Asked how he felt about the situation - on a scale of 1 to 10, the latter being "freaking out" - Orr rated himself as being on a six.
"I would be six because the systems are working, it's a tough time, empathy for everyone involved - but far from a 10," he said.
Not this article?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/reserve-bank-boss-adrian-orr-on-coronavir…
No, it was last Thursday :)
Couldn't reply on other quote re mixing concrete. Saved over a 1000 dollars mixing myself. Also it's piles not concrete floor the exterior piles of the ring are also a structural diaphragm and will be plyed. So can not be knocked a concrete truck is on a time frame if over charges goes up. I do it at my own pace get it done the way I want it. Hence why a new build takes me a yr to 18mths and only costs me 250 000ish
Nzdan was taking you literally when you wrote, "hand mixing" but of course most of us knew you were using a concrete mixer. Epic stuff nevertheless.
Well it certainly made for a well spun tale of heroicness nonetheless. Likewise I hand lifted 300 pallets of beer down in my part time job at the liquor store last week (using an electric pallet jack). You know what I mean.
Still had to shovel the builders mix in still wheel borrowed it to hole
How do you get on with council with that ? Your MPa hand mixing would be all over the place, unless its non structural.
Anyone else feel that western society (or the anglosphere in particular) is nearing a tipping point?
Our plan appears to be to destroy the quality of our society by crippling the infrastructure with more people than we can manage in order to ensure that those who already have enough have more, while those with nothing or not enough, gain nothing and experience the pain/financial consequences of the stupidity with no benefit.
Anyone else feel that western society (or the anglosphere in particular) is nearing a tipping point?
Yes. I feel like this. And your illustration resonates with me. But, to be quite frank, I think the ruling elite is winging it and doesn't really have any idea what they're doing.
That's because they have the financial means not to have to worry about any economic fallout, more so they will profit from it like vultures to a dead carcass
Yes I agree - other than some collusion between big industry/corporates and government (e.g. big pharma and regulators/defence industry and government etc), I don't think there is any coordinated plan as such to have this outcome.
It is just the result of a debt cycle, demographics and geopolitics.
But still it bothers me as it feels like we are heading in a really bad direction. Feels like we are flying blind with no strategic plan.
I seem to recall a film some years back that featured The Wall between the USA and Mexico, but instead of it being used to keep those from Mexico out of the USA, it was being patrolled by the Mexican military trying to keep the US refugees out of their country after the US economy had collapsed.
I feel like it's close but there is still one or two more kicks of the can down the road left in the old girl
Yep the we got to save the world and teach them or way of life and thinking. The Greens are the leaders of that game.
I need to read that book, it seems prescient.
It’s why I got into crypto. I want out of this rotten system.
Traditionally most people would go live in the woods to do that, not join a pyramid scheme.
Pa1nter, quit it already. You clearly no jack all about crypto.
How many more trillions in market share of assets does it need to take before you'll open your eyes?
I do know about crypto. A small few people will get wealthy from it, and the majority won't. So sort of like the regular economy, but way worse.
You would be far better served improving the value of your time and generating a surplus to invest in hard assets.
What's a harder asset than Bitcoin?
It's the hardest form of sound money humans have ever had
A harder asset would be a piece of land which can provide you shelter and food. And that can't be taken from you.
Everything else relies on confidence in whatever medium you use to trade goods and services.
Something thats physical with an attached utility. Food or energy production, shelter, an income generating business, plant or machinery. The sort of thing commonly bought with some form of money.
It's not so much the storage of wealth you should be concerned with, it's the actual generation of it in the first place.
You couldn't have said it better.
In my 20s and all of my disposable income is going into bitcoin as insurance against the way western world is headed
Nekk Minnit'
Cool, been hearing that for 6 years, meanwhile it's outperformed every other asset class in the last decade.
Let's do it again
"With net migration showing no signs of letting up yet, though we assume it will soon, that deficit is likely to keep widening for a while."
March net outflow -24,355 people
April net outflow -34,339 people
May to date net outflow -32,719 people
Yeah, "no signs" whatsoever.
What data source are you using KH?
Those look wrong, do you have a source you can share?
Edit- those are the overall passenger arrival/departures, not migration stats. Depart 467,982- arrival 443,627.
Depends on how much weight you put to migration stats. How many of those net outflows are recently minted residents on their way to Australia?
The difference between arrivals and departures is raw data. 90k more people left the country than arrived. This is a net figure.
Probably very few “newly minted residents” as Australia has only opened the pathway to citizenship for NZ (sole) citizens only.
one particular country disallows their citizens to relinquish citizenship and have citizenship of another country so highly unlikely that country’s citizens will be using NZ as a backdoor to Australia with their NZ Resident class visa.
Do you have a source to back this up? Many use NZ as a backdoor to Australia as they only realistically need to be here for ~5-7years depending on what visa they start off on and when they get a residents visa
In order to have population growth you need more people to enter the country than leave it. More people leaving the country than arriving shows that while we may have inwards migration, it is nowhere near enough to make up for all the people departing.
It's easier to determine a migrants intention as they arrive rather than when they leave. Migration stats factor this in by using some 12/16 month rule. Otherwise, you can book a plane ticket, not tell anyone, and just go.
Nearly 100k less people in the country than there were at the end of February. And I believe someone commented on here recently that overall there are less people in NZ right now than there were at the start of Covid - this would need to be fact checked.
There was a net 50k inflow in the last year it was recorded, so what data are you using?
The housing market is in a accelerating downtrend this is just distraction price’s will continue falling as rates and inflation hit over leveraged property owners.
There a re pretty easy fix to reduce demand expanding by another 100k in the next 12 months.
But that would require politicians who are there for the people of NZ.
Just so glad I carried on purchasing property that I could build on the back of and ad value. Meanwhile all the highly educated looking at a screen with a graph on it saying the world is going to crash are still hitting the keyboard with frustration. Bye got get out there and get the floor joists down. Progress
Having a society in which more and more cannot function due to being forced to rent or buy at sky high progress is the opposite of progress.
The feral kids running around now were born 15 years or so ago - NZ wasn't in bad shape back then.
So what sort of citizens do you think the off spring of the disenchanted being born now will be in another 10-15 years?
In short, NZ will be dysfunctional nightmare.
But good on you chump...you'll be okay in your barricaded home.
The feral kids running around now were born 15 years ago when P was running rampant.
There is no way that the high incidence of P usage 15 years ago has had no deleterious effect on the logic, reason, empathy, and maturity sectors of the developing teenage brain.
Also about the time Sue Bradford brought in the anti smacking law which 90 plus percentage of NZers didn't want (great democracey) and this is what the majority said would happen. Shows you how undemocratic MMP is and how it didn't bring In a better quality of MP that we were told it would
There is more opportunity out there now than ever just got to think outside the box. House just around the corner to me on the market for 275 000 with a subdivdable section. Local council has jobs vacancies they can't fill. Will even train on the job. But nobody wants them because they think living in Auckland is were the money is. Least I am providing a brand new warm dry home for someone to rent what are you doing bemoaning the govt for not doing it for you. These kids need more a clip around the ear and you can hold Sue Bradford to account for that when she brought that law in about 15 yrs ago. But hey wait for the govt to fix everything while you use the TV remote. I see to much opportunity out there
..withdraw that comment to you Colin. Picked up in a few of your other posts. You are clear a worker, not a specuvestor, so good on ya, keep it up.
The Colin Diaries.
Why are we bringing in all these people if we don't have the housing to support them? Is it to create an artifical supply and demand problem to push up house prices again?
What does the reserve bank say on this?
Because we need more workers to pay tax to fund the boomer retirement that risks crippling our finances. See below from Bagrie. Also read treasury reports (and their projections) for the last 5-10 years. We need to offset all of the boomers leaving the workforce with new workers otherwise the system falls over.
We need to offset all of the boomers leaving the workforce with new workers
Doesn't look like we're doing that particularly well. I don't see many boomers working in tourism, hospitality and retail in large numbers? Yet most recent migrants are filling jobs in those low-wage sectors.
The food service sector is now the largest industry by employment in NZ.
More workers paying less in tax out of their low incomes is going to aggravate our fiscal woes, not solve it.
Yip see my post above about how worried I am that we (across the west/anglosphere) appear to have no strategy in place at all.
Just flying by the seat of our pants without looking forward.
To me, we need lower asset prices/household debt levels so that less money is being consumed paying for housing out of workers incomes. This free's up more money for spending in the real economy (and taxation to cover the loss of the boomer workforce if you want to head down that path).
Banks won't like that. They make a margin from lending, and that increases significantly when asset prices rise.
Agreed. The strategy aspect is well and truly missing.
We're clearly not getting the right skills to run our economies efficiently, so vested interests have taken upon themselves to exploit migration channels and bring whoever best can line their pockets with lower wages.
Political parties on both side of the spectrum don't mind this for the free cash flow from more workers/consumers and are happy to fund their pet projects with it, keeping less to grow economic capacity.
... and we're telling the next gen that we don't care about them economically by continuing to pump up housing and offer low value wages.
We're pouring lemon juice on the wound with this the most.
What is going to happen when the jobs disappear and are replaced by AI. Chat GPT doesnt pay income tax, land tax, capital gains tax, ACC levies or GST. The job still gets done. Nobody will miss the workers, other than the Treasury and the makers of bilingual traffic signs. Days of taxpayer money being spent on unproductive and useless things will shortly be over.
AI won't do tradie jobs.
AI has a very long way to go before it starts to replace peoples jobs. It's incredibly over-hyped for what it's capable of.
The shocking thing is 1/3 of our superannuants aren't even retired.
Bring on means testing!
IMO they shouldn't be getting the super if it was income tested and they are working. I know some people who work refuse to take it on moral grounds. Others use it as pocket money.
Means testing is punitive. It means that the widowed 70 year old with no other income living in a mortgage free million dollar property will be required to sell their home and live in abject penury before getting super.
super should be income tested. Many of the state sector CEOs or private sector board chairs who are over 65 and earning more than the PM should not be claiming super. There needs to be an income limit of around $150k. That is more than enough for a 65+ mortgage free couple to live on a year. They may just need to sacrifice their twice yearly holidays to Fiji and London.
The argument for means testing is that if they can't afford to pay, the debt gets added onto the property so when it sells plus interest, then it will get deducted. But I agree that income testing is more fair.
In an old world view they may be needed. But we are all eating the same cake - more people = less to go around.
Growth is over children.
But isn't that completely unsustainable? Short term gain for long term pain?
We still need the infrastructure for the boomers but then we also need additonal infrastructure for the increased population. If National hadn't stopped contributing to the Super scheme for 9 years, IMO we would be so much better off now.
Stats are already saying in 10years 60% of the current GP's will be likely retired. Think of what jobs were revered as successful, contributing to society, and most importantly - valued by society: Doctors, Lawyers, Accountants, Teachers, Police.
We need to encourage the youth to want these jobs or we will be losing a huge section of the workforce in areas we cannot afford to lose them. If you think going to your GP or lawyer is expensive now, just give it time.
Those jobs you listed require more than a 30-sec attention span and that's all you can expect from an average teenager these days. Building a career in maths or science is a hard sell when becoming "INfluencers", Youtubers, TikTokers, etc. is the dream.
Funny how the age old "if property prices rise we are all going to be financially doomed, our grandchildren will be slaves for life, homeless, lifetime renters etc, etc" the ol chicken little views again emerge in light of even the faintest hint that there may actually be a case for higher property prices based on the age old economic theory of supply and demand.
i.e. A growing population, hugely increased costs to build, a dwindling lack of supply due to government yet again bungling the ability to encourage the private sector to supply. A government attempting to force property prices down, permanently, to levels lower than replacement cost and then they wonder why there is another shortage and prices accelerate to catchup after their vain efforts to artificially suppress prices. Oh thats right its the greedy banks and developers fault, apparently oh and of course the easiest scapegoats of all, boomers.
I guess ANZ are assuming that the recession is only a mild one. A moderate to strong recession will see the inflow reduce substantially, and many recent migrants on work visas will need to leave.
Yip this is what I don't understand about the 'immigrants will save the housing market' logic. Yield curves are indicating a beauty of a recession is inbound so if we have credit contraction, falling wages and rising unemployment (i.e. the elements of a deflationary recession), how are we going to employ all these immigrants as well as those already living here? No point having a fresh immigrant tenant if they don't have a job.
Don’t worry, you will struggle to find logic from the economists with their f$&&ed up models.
Real world anecdotes from me:
1. Me to economist, late 2022
Me: building consent approvals to drop by at least 30% by end of 2023
economist: nah, 10% at worst
2. me to another economist 2 weeks ago
Me: National will scuttle MDRS and heavily push greenfield
Economist: nah, they have different priorities
lol. Such an absolutely flawed profession. They are a joke
Yes you need to find an independent economist who doesn't have a narrative to push based upon who is paying their wages.
Some can see the risk and acknowledge it, they just can say so publicly without fear of losing their job.
Conservative forecasts are the name of the game but when they are wrong, can be very wrong.
Oh these were theoretically economists without an agenda.
I think the whole profession and their world view is screwed.
Everyone has an agenda - some are conscious of it, some are not.
Most NZ economists will have skin in the NZ housing market and being human will have loss aversion heuristics playing a role in their thinking, whether they want to admit that or not.
Spoke to a builder recently who said they still have a good list of jobs to get done but the trend currently is other builders coming in and poaching the work as they can do it sooner. Looks like those whose work has dried up will be out poaching from others - which will naturally result in all the demand being diminished quicker and the recession curve will drop faster
And our policy kludgeocracy lurches off again like a reanimated Frankenstein's monster.
Is cohesive thinking about cause and effect impossible for a siloed public service and government?
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