Barfoot & Thompson reported remarkably flat sales in June as the housing market remains subdued over winter.
The real estate agency, the largest in the Auckland residential property market, reported 711 residential sales in June, barely changed from 723 in May and 684 in June last year.
However last month's sales were the second lowest, behind only June 2022, for the month of June since 2010, suggesting the Auckland housing market remains in a slump.
The number of new listings received was also remarkably flat at 1266 in June compared to 1262 in May, and 1255 in June last year.
Total stock levels were down, with 4277 residential properties on the agency's books at the end of June, compared to 4390 at the end of May, and 4676 at the end of June last year.
Selling prices edged up slightly with the agency's average selling price coming in at $1,097,896 in June, up $27,077 compared to May.
The median selling price showed a bigger rise at $995,000 in June, up $40,000 compared to May.
The agency's average selling price is now down $180,751 compared to its 2021 peak, while the median price is down $245,000 from its 2021 peak.
"The current housing market cycle is probably one of the hardest Aucklanders have been through in recent years," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.
"While it is still tough, there continues to be positive signs we are now entering into a period of more stability.
"We are seeing an increase in multi-offer bids on properties and our auction rooms have been busy throughout the month.
"Although the increased activity is not driving up prices it does indicate confidence is returning, which is great news for both vendors and buyers.
"At month's end we had 4277 listings on our books, giving buyers an excellent range of properties across all price brackets," Thompson said.
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Barfoot Auckland
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66 Comments
Auckland has already turned to a sellers market.
Auckland Values to outperform NZ this up-cycle:
+6% remainder of 2023
+12% over 2024 – If National win +15%
Here comes the next boom, ready or not – mine’s a Bollinger, cheers!
Are you getting excited? Personally, I've found spotting any green shoots to be quite a challenge!
Not while mortgage rates are 7%, which is what the reserve bank wants.
What kind of economic conditions does the RBNZ need to see for rates to come down? The introduction of DTI is going to seriously limit any upside no matter which political party wins. What about the tidal wave of fixed interest rollovers? The financial lag effect of this is being seriously underestimated by many a Spruiker. An early indicator of any bounce no matter how short in duration would be selling volumes for a start. As the headline suggests - these are flat as.
What kind of economic conditions does the RBNZ need to see for rates to come down?
1. Consumer demand falls off a cliff.
2. The unwinding of the bubble suddenly ramps up its decline.
3. Economic shock from offshore. For ex, China. Personally, I think that's already in full swing. But the smart people in our part of the world seem to be oblivious.
Evidence: "China’s biggest state banks are offering local government financing vehicles loans with ultra-long maturities and temporary interest relief to prevent a credit crunch amid growing tension in the US$9 trillion debt market."
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3226475/top-chine…
certainly not from China -- the can has been kicked down the road by teh USA and others -- and China is even less likely to lose face and allow a collapse -- It will be propping things up for years and several cycles to come -- realistically nobody can afford to call them on it either - as all the major nations are dependant on them for a lot more than cheap goods -- rare minerals for a start -- so thats not very likely --
consumer demand failing is more likely - but add 80000 people it will keep propped up and a whole load of people are mortgage free in this country -- so .... again not looking good
The ponzi unwinding -- much more likely - its creaking now but the bulkheads are still holding just -- but another year of 7% rates will wipe out many peoples safety nets --
popcorn anyone
Good comment and, like it or not, NZ is toast. I doubt Luxon or Seymour realise any policy attempts from them to save the housing market at this point is just going to step up the rate of decline of our productive economy.
Also worth noting, there are zero policy promises between those two "business friendly" politicians that favour anyone in NZ other than housing speculators, farmers and low value businessowners.
Quite the opposite - ACT want to get rid of research and development incentives such as Callaghan grants which are vital for those few NZ companies that actually innovate.
Got to pay for allowing property investors to claim interest deductibility somehow, I guess...
Really pathetic stuff. Not a single country has been able to generate critical mass in its innovation ecosystem without a tax incentives regime.
Never understood NZ's fatal obsession with neoliberal ideas such as free flow of capital and labour.
Even IMF has been distancing itself lately from their decades-long position on capital flows. The timing couldn't be better now that all those asset bubbles inflated by unbridled capital flows are about to blow up and IMF wants to be in a "told you so" position".
What kind of economic conditions does the RBNZ need to see for rates to come down? - Inflation under 3%. Lets keep this simple.
That because you live under weed mat RP. You did see the the graph above, or did you just jump into the comments section and start spouting off ?
LOL! Aren't you that guy that says quote "predictions don't need to be backed by facts"? Do you want to be taken seriously or not? When you look at the graph above, do you see an uptrend? If so, it might reveal something about your personality.
The graph to me looks pretty flat and is currently still showing a clear sign of hitting the bottom. I'm not expecting prices to increase, I'm predicting prices are not going a whole lot lower, 12th July is the next market signal. If we get no more OCR hikes for the rest of the year, National get in then expect Orr to start to signal possible cuts in 2024, that's if National don't kick him into touch in under a month. How about an OCR prediction from you RP...based on all your facts of course ?????
It's a yoy chart. So been flat since November 2022, which was a year after the peak. So the flat line just shows a consistent downward trend since Nov 2021.
Its a clear sign.... if, and if, and if. I'm beginning to think Zwifter is just trolling us
Its a clear sign.... if, and if, and if. I'm beginning to think Zwifter is just trolling us
Trolls and their sock puppets are good. As long as they're entertaining and witty.
The immutable bottom.
Reminds me of the story of an old woman from Iowa - upon seeing the sea for the very first time.
She remarked "it's not as big as I thought it would be."
National-ACT delivering tax cuts to 2+ million working Kiwis in the middle of a high demand-pull inflationary spell will certainly keep CPI above RBNZ's target band for longer.
by Zwifter | 28th Apr 23, 11:01am
Call the ambulance the DGM's are choking on their coffee this morning. Prices of existing houses cannot keep going down when the cost of new builds keeps going up, driven by inflation.
Zwifter, house prices are still falling.
Zwifter also posted a couple of days ago that house prices will rise because residential construction will fall off a cliff, constraining new supply amid rising demand.
Some commentators aren't clearly fans of logic. An increase in house buying is often a vote of confidence in the economy and your future ability to service a huge mortgage. Our largest sector by employment being in freefall dragging down other allied sectors (financial services, materials manufacturing & retailing, etc.) hardly makes a case for taking on huge mortgages or bringing migrants to NZ in large numbers.
Which graph do you mean, there are a few options? The easiest to interpret is 'average price' - showing a pretty steady fall in prices. Depending on your narrative, this month's uptick is either a dramatic change in temperature or just another bit of upwards noise in the long term downtrend.
Interesting divergence between the average and median curves, too.
RP most on here if they saw green shoots would quickly get the Roundup out and give it a spray with that.
Ha-ha, yes - while I can see where you're coming from, house prices are still out of whack. Our young being seen as the White Knights (pent up demand) in support of current house prices is quite obscene. Its more about a timely, although somewhat less dignified, exit for the greedy.
Homes are for living in, not speculating on.
If National win +15%
I'm interested by the view that National will cause a boom in the housing market. I'm thinking the exact opposite. Constrained spending will mean longer to get the equity tap running again, cutting out all the consultants, how many empty rentals in Wellington? Sure there will be people rejoicing over tax rinsing, but most of those already have property, the yield is still woeful.
We're talking the opposite of the covid boom - you know when the economy was juiced with low rate lending and loose govt spend? Yea nah high rate lending and govt restriction will land us on the moon for sure.
Agreed.
See my comments below re The Landlord Party and the MDRS in Auckland.
The best we'll see will be new build cost + margin adjusted a tad for inflation. So prices will be flat for 20-30 years until the supply of brown-fields land dries up.
National will not slash the lanyard class in Wellington. They never do.
Talking of yields ... See this: 6 beds and relatively new. $820k at auction (roughly 5% p.a. from last sale price?)
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/manukau-city/flat-bush/h…
No hint of any issues. Some would consider this a bargain.
That really sold for 820k? That sounds unusually cheap for a new-build of that size. 300+ sqm is a lot of house for $820K!
It's not new. Probably built in 2014-15. The original purchase price was likely just the section. It is certainly an interesting sale.
Something about the construction feels very off. It's almost like part way through building a 6 bedroom home someone has decided to DIY the rest, and bought what they can on the cheap from various building materials recyclers. I mean the "pantry", lol, has a gas hob for what purpose exactly? Make sure you turn on the extractor fan if you're going to close the door so you don't gas yourself.
Even the van filled with rubbish from 12 months ago is still parked outside in the photos, I wonder how many more tickets are under the wiper blade?
https://www.google.com/maps/@-36.9687558,174.9161874,3a,39.8y,233.23h,7…
Aucklands next ghetto
Pantry hob is good for cooking smelly food. A lot of new houses have that these days. There are very similar houses all around with some selling for close to twice as much within 12 months ago.
National will have to go further than just Wellington bureaucracy.
The Treasury reported that the Government’s operating (Obegal) deficit for the 11 months to the end of May stood at $6.5 billion
National will have no option but to pare back critical services and infrastructure spending to deliver a balanced budget in such a short span.
This kind of austerity went unnoticed back when John Key was running the show because there was still a bit of spare capacity in the sector.
Thanks to a decade of high net migration and chronic underinvestment, public services are already running beyond capacity and have no room for "cost savings".
To be fair Key's austerity did get noticed by many .
We are still paying for it.
$3 million savings from closure of 30 police stations
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67840387/3-million-savings-fr…
"cutting out all the consultants" we've been over this. There are typically more consultants under a National government as they reduce the civil service numbers and the same people are hired back as consultants
Auckland prices up on B&T (Selling prices edged up, coming in at $1,097,896 in June, up $27,077 compared to May) and down on Corelogic (In Auckland, the average dwelling value dropped by $38,775 in June).
How about we don't get too excited either way and wait for REINZ'S HPI mid July?
Yes.
As I have said several times, there’s every chance that median prices could rise while the HPI could fall.
Just means the bottom rung has given out, those on the next rung up haven't realised yet.
Probably. Not helped by the huge spread in property valuations on the different websites, leads you to believe none of them are right.
Dedicated to our famous poster:
This is Earth Control to tothepoint
You’ve really made the bid
And the papers want to know how much you paid
Now it’s time to leave the bubble if you dare
This is tothepoint to Earth Control
I’m stepping into the market
And I’m floating in higher interest rates
And the market looks very different today…
Very good Mr Moa
Hi Chairman Moa,
Maybe if you spent less time on ‘writing’ frivolous sing songs and poems, and more time exploring investment property, you would realise that the data shows that the bottom is in and there has never been a better time to invest in property.
What the DGM trolls that frequent this website fail to realise, is the consistent resilience of the NZ property market. Simply put, there is not better investment to make that provides one with security over their financial future.
Of course, I am but a lowly renter, but I can’t help but get excited over the clear bottoming out of the market - I might just jump on a house or two in the very near future. As the saying goes - Palmerston North is lovely this time of year.
Be quick!
-TTP
Sorry I've spent enough time in my youth in Palmerston North, it is shxt this time of the year, wet, damp and windy as...!
To be fair I'm in one of the best weather regions in NZ and its been nothing but wet, damp and windy as for months now. Had to get the outdoor furniture off the deck and bring it inside for only the second time ever before it blew away the other day.
Gee, how many accounts do you have at once Tim ?
Difficult data to interpret. The market is very subdued for sure. I can't reconcile low demand with an increase in both median and average prices. I wonder if the small numbers being sold mean it's easy to skew the data with outliers?
I like the way B&T have introduced the idea that buyers are returning with multi offers on the rise. No data is available to support the claim so it stands without challenge, however it would be the only way the market could have such few sales with more buyers - funny that.
Buyers at the lower end are squeezed out by the cost of living, those with wage increases can afford more. The perceived notion that you're getting more for your money now so make the most of it. This could be the last of the pent-up demand who think we're near the bottom. There are few quality homes on the market where the ask prices are somewhat reasonable and that's where the multi offers are placed.
"one of the hardest months [for agents, speculators & boomers, that for decades have made killings on the back of hard working youth and immigrants]"
-SMG.
The tickets clippers will have all saved for a rainy day and not blown the largess of the last ten years.
Ah those same ticket clippers rolling around in G-Wagons, RS-4's, newly done up flood prone villa's in G-Lynn and Yeezy's with a suit?
Totally agree - fine financial operators that lot.
- Chubbs
Computer says no. So does Corelogic.
Nothing to see here. Lucky them Boomers don't have their glasses on.
Paper equity is exactly that. Paper thin.
- Chubbs
I think we all need to collectively recognise this huge moment in history - Peter Thompson, a real estate agent, has been recorded saying something that isn't pure spruiker garbo.
Big ups to my dawg & have a blessed day.
-SMG.
The effect of Auckland's 2016 Unitary Plan is pretty plain to see in the B&T graphs.
Even if The Landlord Party scraps the MDRS, most of Auckland is already zoned for spatial envelopes that are similar, and in many instances, many times larger. The down side being that many zones (Mixed Housing - Suburban, Mixed Housing - Urban, and Terraced Housing and Apartment Buildings) all need Resource Consents to get to the larger of the two spatial options these zones specify.
And of course - the NPS-UD is unchallenged by The Landlord Party while Auckland Council are s.l.o.w.l.y making progress on the new zones and the zoning rules.
So - in a nutshell - Unless the RBNZ does something daft - and they have form for very daft - dwelling prices ain't going anywhere fast for years.
Actual numbers:
..last month's sales were the second lowest, behind only June 2022, for the month of June since 2010
Meanwhile, Barfoot, undeterred by the concept of even attempting to pretend to connect their statements with any sort of reality:
...our auction rooms have been busy throughout the month.
To be fair - stuff is selling ... BUT!!!!
1) If sale price is < than last sale price - quite a few, and sometime, quite significant hits.
2) If sale price is > than last sale price - Capital appreciation from the "last sale price" is often less than inflation - sometimes down to 1% p.a. in actual terms.
Overall - vendors are getting the message. What message is that? The banks says you can longer afford it - so sell.
The myth that NZ residential property is a one way bet is dead! (Until next time.)
It's still a one way bet now but the direction has changed.
While it is still tough, there continues to be positive signs we are now entering into a period of more stability
Tough? Get stuffed maggots. What’s tough is a 10x price/income ratio screwing this country on almost every dimension. The price drop is a positive thing, and it’s hopefully going to keep running, as no real fundamentals have changed.
Agree on all points.
If sales were 711 and new listings were 1266 how can stock level be down ? Maybe people are moving to another agent if so they lost 555 clients in the month.
ChatGPT said don't buy, bottom of market has not reached!
I am out for now!
GPT appears to not be able to put a single sentence together correctly and you are going with it ?
The sales numbers are even worse the 2010 because there are significantly more houses now than there were back then. I heard one property expert on NTZB saying that the market was tipping back into a sellers market again. Not sure if they are living in an alternate universe or not.
"our auction rooms have been busy throughout the month"
"However last month's sales were the second lowest, behind only June 2022, for the month of June since 2010"
Peter Thompson is a liar. Plain and simple.
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Looking at june 21 sales for BT: 1234.
This June: 711
42% drop
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