Housing market off to a slow start for spring

Property / news

Realestate.co.nz had a softer than expected start to spring

2nd Oct 23, 5:00am by Greg Ninness

The housing market appears to have had a fairly quiet start to the spring selling season with new listings, stock levels and average asking prices all rising slightly compared to August.

Property website Realestate.co.nz received 7812 new residential listings in September, up from 7444 in August (+4.9%) and barely changed from the 7881 (-0.9%) it received in September last year.

However it is still well below the 10,050 new listings the website received at the peak of the last boom in September 2020 and suggests the market still has some way to travel before it gets back up to the pre-Covid level of September 2019 when 8901 new listings were received.

There was the lowest ever number of new listings for the month of September in nine regions last month: Waikato, Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Manawatu/Whanganui, Wellington, Wairarapa, Central Otago/Lakes, Otago and Southland.

The total number of residential properties available for sale on the website increased to 23,564 at the end of September from 22,750 in August (+3.6%) which was its highest level in three months but still down 9.0% compared to September last year.

The national average asking price increased for the second month in a row to $864,606 in September, up by $9462 (+1.1%) compared to August but down by $49,060 (-5.4%) compared to September last year.

"What's interesting this year is that we are seeing a softer start to spring than expected," Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams said.

"The election, suspected post-election Reserve Bank movements, and interest rate rises, appear to be dampening the influx of new listings that warmer weather usually brings to market," she said.

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73 Comments

by Yvil | 2nd Oct 23, 5:14am 1696176897

Report published at 5 am ! Kudos Greg ! Shame many think this doesn't deserve their 33cts/day support.

by Flying high | 2nd Oct 23, 5:28am 1696177704

You're clearly hurting seeing the latest results, so feel the need to start landing blows

by Albert2020 | 2nd Oct 23, 7:55am 1696186521

The amount of posts you make about this topic anyone would think that you are on interest’s payroll.

by Dgm | 2nd Oct 23, 8:06am 1696187184

He is a master at buttering up.. so doesn't mind banding backwards...

by Nzdan | 2nd Oct 23, 8:16am 1696187811

Not sure if he's necessarily on their payroll. Just a bit of a "teacher's pet". One time he cold called on them with a lunch shout, which sure is a nice gesture. Who knows, maybe he took a break from daily lunch shouts to nurses and firefighters? Or maybe he's trying to grease up David.

"If you're ever looking for a community moderator David, let me know 😉".

by Flying high | 2nd Oct 23, 8:21am 1696188108

Yvil acts grumpy in print and chummy in his Yves Facebook photos. He's a bit weird.

by Nzdan | 2nd Oct 23, 8:27am 1696188423

Are you friends with him on Facebook or something?

by Flying high | 3rd Oct 23, 6:38am 1696268327

Yes but gladly not one of his chums

by Yvil | 2nd Oct 23, 8:52am 1696189921

Yes, I went to see the team at Interest just before X-mas a few years ago, and I shouted them coffee and pastries for morning break, as I really enjoy reading Interest. I got to meet the team and spoke to David Chaston for a while. I also learned that they normally don't even stop working for a morning break. Your claim about "teacher's pet" is pathetic NZDan, grow up! How about just giving credit where credit is due and doing nice things for people who deserve it ?

by Nzdan | 2nd Oct 23, 9:00am 1696190401

It's true though, nice morning tea break gesture aside the consistent tone of your comments on here are very much "teacher's pet". Just an observation, don't take it personally.

I guess for my remark, I'll be first on the ban list when you become community moderator.

by Yvil | 2nd Oct 23, 9:24am 1696191864

"you're a teacher's pet" but "dont take it personally". Again, pathetic!

You easily write 30 posts a day, that's 1 ct per post, can't you afford that? Do you think Interest don't deserve it? Be a man and contribute now.

by Nzdan | 2nd Oct 23, 9:32am 1696192361

How I or anyone else spends their money is none of your concern. Has David asked you to come on here to try shake everyone down, or are you doing it to puff up your online ego?

If David is not happy with ad revenue alone he's more than welcome to write me a personal email to discuss.

by Yvil | 2nd Oct 23, 7:16pm 1696227392

To be very clear, David has not asked me to help raise funds for Interest, but he has asked you (and others), multiple times on here. It's a shame you don't value Interest enough for contributing 0.33 $/day.

by Nzdan | 3rd Oct 23, 7:12am 1696270352

Like I said, mind your own business. David is more than welcome to discuss via private email in a little more detail.

I'm sure the last thing David wants is for you to ruin the readership experience for other commentators because you're constantly trying to guilt trip people into subscribing.

by Dgm | 2nd Oct 23, 9:08am 1696190926

Why don't you practice what you preach? Stop being a narcissistic person for a start..

by Baywatch | 2nd Oct 23, 1:13pm 1696205609

Maybe do that for your Motel tenant's?

by Black and White | 2nd Oct 23, 8:34am 1696188880

Play the ball not the Man

by Yvil | 2nd Oct 23, 9:23am 1696191834

"The amount of posts you make about this topic anyone would think that you are on interest’s payroll."

Nope Albert, I try to help gather revenue for Interest without getting paid for it, imagine that ! I do it out of a sense of fairness for them and because I don't want Interest to go bust, what a terrible person I am !

by malamah | 2nd Oct 23, 8:07am 1696187241

It’ll be a scheduled article. Just like how the kid doing the paper run doesn’t write the articles.

by Flying high | 2nd Oct 23, 8:18am 1696187923

The herald is delivered by car these days, not many get the paper. And if you buy one on a Saturday you'll need spare arms and legs

by Retired-Poppy | 2nd Oct 23, 11:30am 1696199419

Yvil, at least you're not running around labelling "tickless" posters "Bludger", "leech", "parasite" or even "freeloaders". Its good to see you limit the self embarrassment and moderate your tone. Anyway, whatever the outcome of your fruitless efforts, if people want to bypass subscription while trawling through paid adverts then good on them. I personally don't care and neither should you. Its a free world and I guess the only really disappointing thing for me is you insist on going through life viewing yourself as superior to others. It's a long way to fall when humbled.

by 1689 Baptist | 2nd Oct 23, 6:26am 1696181178

Whats going on in Wellington? A 42% drop in housing stock?!

by General Comment | 2nd Oct 23, 6:42am 1696182142

Everyone playing the waiting game. The Wellington market often grinds to a halt in election years.

by Black and White | 2nd Oct 23, 8:35am 1696188941

Wellington fantastic were the whole market should be.

Another 8% we will hit were I believe the market needed to go for young Kiwis.

All very well done by the red team.

If the younger Generation want to own a home they need to vote Red as the Blue team about to throw them under the bus again if they get in.

by 1689 Baptist | 2nd Oct 23, 8:36am 1696189015

I hadn't realized just how elastic house listing supply is. Atleast in the short term

by TronMVP | 2nd Oct 23, 9:39am 1696192747

What was done well by the red team?

by Iceman | 2nd Oct 23, 9:49am 1696193380

Black and White - This is the utter nonsense garbage posted by people like you on here. Here's a fact - House prices had RECORD increases ( I think it's something like 98%) during labour's most recent term. So if you're advising people to keep voting for them, that's the dumbest thing I've heard of.

by sparrow | 2nd Oct 23, 10:20am 1696195223

So if you're concerned about unaffordable housing you should vote the Blue team, sponsered by the RE industry, who propose to undo all the good policies now in force and let foreign buyers back in. Gotcha.

by CN - new | 2nd Oct 23, 2:32pm 1696210325

People will choose to vote on issues that are most important to them and their lives.

Most property investors will more likely choose to vote to restore their previous tax advantages in the existing house market.

This will create an advantage to these non owner occupier buyers over occupier owner buyers in the existing house market.

by interesting1234 | 3rd Oct 23, 9:33am 1696278817

Precisely. Anecdotally I have seen a large shift in the last 2-3 months in colleagues and aquaintances who appeared to be assessing options for the election and having rational discussions, suddenly revert back to old ways of thinking and voting. Amazing what behaviours can be seen when it comes crunch time. Until we break this mentality, history will be doomed to continue repeating itself.

by K.W. | 2nd Oct 23, 11:56am 1696200996

They also went up by a record amount under Helen Clark's term as well. Labour = soaring house prices. Especially in modern times when Labour = unlimited immigration.

by Black and White | 2nd Oct 23, 10:27pm 1696238864

Basic 4 bed House in forest hill on Aucklands Northshore Westlake school zone went from $500k in 2010 to $2.5m by 2O16 under 3% of the market Mr John Key.The whole of the Northshore was like that under John Wee

All dirty laundered money from his international friends.

This is were the deterioration of the property market started.

I agree the printing of money and cheap money for covid have done no good for the Property market but at least they have done something to stop it.

Now your friends at the National party want to start the Ponzi again that is dumb.

by huttman | 2nd Oct 23, 10:53am 1696197234

are you surprised?

by Averageman | 2nd Oct 23, 6:38am 1696181924

The ticket clippers must be starting to panic. Low listings will be people holding waiting for tax free foreign sales under NACT.

Can't pay tax can we...

by kwbrn | 2nd Oct 23, 9:58am 1696193880

On the positive side next years tax bill will be a lot smaller. Some may even get a refund.

by K.W. | 2nd Oct 23, 11:58am 1696201115

The answer is far more obvious and simple than that. People are not selling their current house and buying a new one because they no longer meet the servicing requirements for a new mortgage, with test rates at 9%+. Especially if they are trying to upsize.

by CN - new | 2nd Oct 23, 3:22pm 1696213331

Recent owner occupier buyers of 2020-2021 may now not have sufficient equity to upgrade or move in the next few years due to evaporation of a large proportion of their equity resulting from house price changes.

Also, 1 year mortgage interest rates at 7.0% are back at levels last seen in Nov 2008 - that is almost 15 years ago.

Many borrowers in the last 5 years may have assumed that they would not reach this level.

Saw property investment calculations done in 2021 by property promoters assuming interest rates of peaking at 4.0% in the next 10 years to 2031.

by TronMVP | 2nd Oct 23, 11:03pm 1696241030

Are you gloating or lamenting over this?

by CN - new | 3rd Oct 23, 5:54pm 1696308841

Unfortunately, there will be cashflow stress and mental stress on highly leveraged households. If highly leveraged households are unable to hold on, some will need social housing.

This all happened previously to close relatives and saw up close how this affected the parents and the children.

Sadly, some will also resort to self harm.

by False economies | 2nd Oct 23, 7:28am 1696184880

This article says average asking price dropped...?

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/10/nz-housing-average-asking-price-drops-record-low-new-listings-in-nine-regions.html

by WatchItFall | 2nd Oct 23, 11:32am 1696199550

Yep. It clearly has. The figures quoted above are incorrect as well. Please update interest team.

Here is the source: https://news.realestate.co.nz/blog/new-zealand-property-market-2023-sep…

by Chaosinflesh | 2nd Oct 23, 12:03pm 1696201423

Haha .. they've changed the green and red to blue and cyan.

by Sam Bridgman-Smith | 2nd Oct 23, 7:32am 1696185147

My two cents:

Been out and about sniffing after some properties and have put in some tentative, unsuccessful low-ball offers. It seems that vendor expectations are still in lala-land, as though it is still 2021. As seen on Facebook’s property investors group (I keep an eye on them), many vendors are hard on the hopium that National will be able to bring back the good ol’ days of the ponzi… but I don’t think National will be able to effect any considerable change. Then fear will set in.

In the charts section of Interest.co.nz, I highly recommend looking at the housing data. The median price and income to house price affordability over time charts especially speak volumes. I see no evidence in any of the data that suggests it is not an epic housing bubble.

Our strategy therefore is to take our time and wait for better opportunities. Property is still hideously overpriced in this country and we will not overpay.

I think it will correct over time, but if it doesn’t and I am wrong we will consider leaving NZ. Not only to avoid overpaying for a rot box, but also for the questionable quality of life such a society would offer future generations. We know many people who have already left or are intending to do so in part due to the cost of housing.

All are good people, smart and capable workers which NZ cannot afford to lose.

Interesting times.

by Black and White | 2nd Oct 23, 7:44am 1696185884

The whole country is in Lala-land especially the Kiwi work force they have totally lost there reputation as hard working people.

The new work force coming into the country at the moment make them look very average.

Kiwis want to work half as much and be paid twice as must a very bad Covid hangover plus the greed has set in.

If the Kiwis don't be careful there will be know jobs for them in the next 5 years.

We need a huge recession to wake the average Kiwi up

by HughJorgan | 2nd Oct 23, 8:00am 1696186848

It’s not that greed has set in. It’s just that housing (renting or buying) costs so much so you need to get paid well.

Agree that we need a recession as a rest.

by Black and White | 2nd Oct 23, 8:39am 1696189176

Yes but it's the greedy cartel banks ANZ,BNZ,ASB,Westpac and the greedy people that played this silly game of where we have ended up since the GFC

by swapacrate | 2nd Oct 23, 10:03am 1696194204

Agree if the banks don't lend no one can buy. National will not be in forever if they do get in and the younger generation will vote once they get older and see what devastation the older greedy generation has done to them. I just cant believe how bad NZ has become in the last 20-30 years.

I don't blame National entirely but they are definitely the party that adds fuel to the fire. If Luxon was a man of his word he would sell his portfolio as this should be the best amount of money he can earn. He would invest in start-ups, and grow the start-up ecosystem and drive new business and exports. But no, the best business in NZ is to rip off other NZers and the younger generation.

by swapacrate | 2nd Oct 23, 10:09am 1696194584

I don't get that, I work with loads of young people and they all work hard. I think thats a self perpetuating myth to bring in cheap labour to increase businesses margins.

It seems to me that instead of increasing efficiencies and productivity, its easier to hire cheaper labour. Also people want to buy more now, they want the big non trailable boat so they talk it up at the fishing clubs. The bbqs are bigger, the utes are bigger and the bach's are flasher.

All these people are blaming the youth.

But we do need a recession for house prices to drop.

by tothepoint | 2nd Oct 23, 3:24pm 1696213486

Hi swapacrate,

We’ve just has a recession and house prices did drop - by about 18 percent, if the monitoring agencies are correct.

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 2nd Oct 23, 3:57pm 1696215474

....how much do you think they'll drop in the next recession we're about to have? For the good of the financial system it would be imperative the RBNZ higher for longer interest rate stance means an outright house price crash is avoided - right?

by Black and White | 2nd Oct 23, 10:33pm 1696239214

Recession not started yet TTP

You wait to next year.

Grab a seat the Party about to stop.

by Tallmantim | 2nd Oct 23, 10:21pm 1696238487

No doubt some youth are good (my own daughter included). But I personally know a number of youth who have decided to opt out of the work force after leaving school to play video games and abuse substances instead, all funded courstey of the New Zealand tax payer via the very lax Job Seeker benefit under this current government.

As a result we are importing unskilled workers by the thousand from overseas.

by Llama_360 | 2nd Oct 23, 8:07am 1696187250

That’s been my experience as well. Had our eye on a place on the North Shore. Auction cancelled because no unconditional bidders expressed interest. Listed for deadline sale the next day. We were the only unconditional offer. Vendor rejected it and has now listed at a price $50k below 2021 cv. I also had a friend who owns a house in the area and is looking to sell suggest that it was a bargain because it was under CV. I told him that prices have dropped quite a bit and I’ve seen some places selling for their 2018 prices and he seemed to not really believe me.

by ikimpaul | 2nd Oct 23, 10:47am 1696196857

Agree - what people can borrow - is still the biggest factor in determining house prices. Starting to see a number of mortgagee sales across NZ including one that listed last week in lower hutt who had paid almost $1.3M in late 21 for a house that had sold in 20 for only 900K.

Interestingly nobody has asked national their position on DTI's and I'm under the impression the RBNZ intends to implement these in early 24 - I'm also aware one major bank is already using DTI's. If they are implemented the chances of the housing market getting anything more than green shoots are low.

by huttman | 2nd Oct 23, 11:06am 1696197999

it's only natural when buyers want bargains and sellers want higher offers. this is the point, the housing prices linked two groups of people, buyers and sellers, when one wish cheaper houses, the others wants it higher.

the house prices has already dropped about 15% to 20%, and we've done a 'correction'. it is time to consider how likely another 'correction' is on its way.

by Amokk | 2nd Oct 23, 5:16pm 1696220216

Highly fekn likely champ. Many more people facing this awful prospect

https://reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceNZ/s/DFLaTqXqFS

by Nzdan | 2nd Oct 23, 5:29pm 1696220974

Before I even clicked on the link I knew what post it would be. I got the notification on my Reddit earlier today.

Not the first I've seen (particularly on FHB Facebook page) and certainly not going to be the last either.

by Amokk | 2nd Oct 23, 5:51pm 1696222317

Is so sad, these poor people and so many like them have been pulled in by the fake FOMO so many spruikers peddle (and continue to peddle).

by False economies | 2nd Oct 23, 7:39am 1696185555

This speaks volumes...

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/499176/property-industry-tops-political-donations

by Blackbeard | 2nd Oct 23, 8:19am 1696187943

That is classic.

by agnostium | 2nd Oct 23, 8:30am 1696188629

Only one donor with directorships in property-related industries donated to the Labour Party. Mark Todd of Ockham Residential donated $50,000. A representative from the company said Todd believed legislation "which reins in the lord bit of landlord" was a good thing.

by K.W. | 2nd Oct 23, 12:05pm 1696201523

Hardly a suprise when Ockham Residential is sucking at the taxpayers teat to build all their buildings.

“It would be hard to do this type of building without government assistance, and we appreciate that commitment, and changed attitude, from government towards it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/131950275/how-ockham-resident…

by HouseMouse | 2nd Oct 23, 8:45am 1696189509

No surprise re: Meehan. Steven Joyce is on Winton’s board.

If National win, Meehan’s ‘Sunfield’ development will be rubber-stamped.

by Jesse1 | 2nd Oct 23, 8:52am 1696189935

I hope that analysis gets a lot of coverage. Everyone should know and understand what games are being played around both property and our so called democracy. Young people should drop all sense of loyalty/patriotism to this country and leave - it doesn't deserve them.

by swapacrate | 2nd Oct 23, 9:35am 1696192522

Thats a travesty all these people with families and future generations, it feels as we are moving NZ back into the dark ages, where Government is ruled by a feudal system. Pushing everything out of reach of not only average people but even people who do quite well from an academic point of view, especially if they have no parents to help. The only way to buy a property now is to have a house previously before all this rort started.

We have seen houses that were sold for 90,000 15 years ago with $800,000 price tags now. Better off knocking house down they are so bad. Then you also have people that have bought at probably their peak buying power of $500,000 on 3% interest now trying to flog same house 3 years later at $800,000 at 7% interest. Back of a cigarette carton maths, is equivalent to selling the house at over 1 million dollars with 3% interest. This house of cards needs to fall hard.

by stefanblaise | 2nd Oct 23, 10:17am 1696195074

Real Estate will start to reprice down alot more quickly now that many vendors are either reluctant, or are being pressured by finance, and if it don't, alot of young talent will leave, which will be very bad for the economy (scarcity of qualified skills is already killing employers). Lots of vendors still in denial. Its an ugly soup.

by huttman | 2nd Oct 23, 10:49am 1696196965

in short, the new listings are lower than 2019, and total stocking not so much neither.

by DTRH | 2nd Oct 23, 11:40am 1696200006

Thousands of people and investors borrowed a million or more over last 4 years with mortgage interest rates now at 7% or higher this will cost you over $1500 per week rather than $900 per week,only a matter of time before this financial burden become to much for many. Average wage earners take home pay is around $1100 per week and many are needing to refinance now.

by K.W. | 2nd Oct 23, 11:43am 1696200193

So in Australia house prices are once again at record highs, having recovered all the pandemic losses. Same in the USA.

by huttman | 2nd Oct 23, 11:54am 1696200844

I think NZ has over reached back 2021, hence no price increases yet.

by nicko252 | 3rd Oct 23, 2:24am 1696253079

Prices went up until July 2022, so I'm not sure which pandemic loses you are talking about.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 2nd Oct 23, 1:20pm 1696206025

Where is the RBNZ on the DTI scheme?

Still dragging their feet?

Or are the retail banks playing hardball and telling the RBNZ where to go?

(For those that don't know - the big four will have the RBNZ write regulation their way. This is why our banking system - along with the insurance system - is totally dominated by the Aussie Oligopoly.)

by IT GUY | 2nd Oct 23, 8:48pm 1696232888

This thread is as bad as the Winnie the pooh jack tane Q&A intervier shocker..... anyways back to NewstalkZB

TLDR Housing market is still a mess, affordabiulity at record lows, prices at eye watering levels and .... don't look down.