The residential auction rooms just had their busiest week of the year with 489 properties on offer at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz over the week of 11-17 November.
That was the third week in a row that auction numbers have topped 400, suggesting we could be heading for a busy summer.
Unfortunately the increase in properties being offered was not matched by an increase in sales, with 193 properties selling under the hammer, which pushed the overall sales rate down to 39%. That's the first time it has been below 40% since mid-July.
Of the properties that did sell, just 38% achieved prices that were equal to or above their rating valuations, which was down from the mid-to-high-40% range over the previous seven weeks.
That suggests although buyers are having more to choose from, they are remaining cautious on price.
Details of the the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices and rating valuations of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
The table below shows the latest results by district.
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59 Comments
First Home Partnership Scheme now closed "Harcourts salesperson Alex Dunn, who sells in South Auckland, said he had expected to see a rush in first-home buyers, they had been working with, suddenly wanting to buy before the scheme closed last week but it never eventuated. “No one was in a hurry to do anything.”
With approaching headwinds considered and at current prices, there is no need for FOMO.
Well, well, Retired-Poppy quotes a real estate agent as being an authoritative voice.......
TTP
Well, well, for once our resident real estate agent can't deny there is no need for FOMO. Perhaps there is such thing as an honest REA agent after all. You know, an agent that says it how it really is.
If a real estate agent is spruiking the market one can't tell if the market's doing good for real or it's only self interest
If one is pointing to weakness in the market the self interest element goes out of the picture, making the claim more believable
My observations for some leafy Auckland suburbs I follow
it’s a real two speed market at the moment. High quality properties are archiving very strong prices, everything else is languishing.
listings volume is well ahead of sales volume, will see where this goes….
My research agrees with your findings.
The higher value properties are much more likely to be purchased without lending. The 50+ cohort etc.
More people trying to sell before next phase of the crash, many will be hurting financially when they have to refinance from 3%-4% to 7% or over, Also at these reduced price’s in Auckland most families just cannot raise enough funds to purchase from scratch.
You know HPI for Auckland last month was up 1.3% & over 3 months up 3.3%?
The NZD tumbling and inflation add up to real loss in value of over 8% in last few months.
NZD has been pretty steady as of late with USD weakening & inflation is easing. What did we see this week - food prices coming back, oil dropping, swap rates down, economists going back on OCR increase predictions?
....and TD's for 12-months still at 6.3%! Be quick you reckon Nifty1?
ASB best offering is currently 6.26% they are acutely aware of the BNZ's best offer.
Not in the DGM world Nifty, the mistress is wearing black and that's not a feather duster she is about to whip you with.
Zwifter, when all your pro property arguments are becoming toast why not post something laced with deviance - LOL!
What else is there - right?
My understanding is that nearly all of the refixingg has already occurred
Hurry - be quick!
Be as quick as you are to read a new One Roof article...?
Yeah, the same Oneroof article with the Header "People are making some dumb decisions"
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/first-home-buyers-in-a-rush-to-get-cash-…
Click bait, worked perfectly on you & you're sharing it around. You may aswell be working for them at this point...
If it helps, keep repeating that to yourself.......
From the same article - “There was a bit of urgency in there and people making some dumb decisions to be honest, but that’s just the way it happens"
Perhaps they were listening to you?
Poppy getting a walloping from Nifty this morning - needs to lift his game.
TTP
It's not fair!
Mummy!
The aftermath of million mortgage is happening weekly payments going from 950 to 1700 will be a huge financial burden and some will manage it for a while but many will have to sell, as market gets flooded the prices will tumble. Huge numbers of investors have already sold over last couple of years and would be crazy to invest again at these prices and rate levels.
Do you personally know people on median incomes who have million dollar mortgages?
Can't be hard to guess, people are selling now, houses bought at peak and just before, for just under 1 million. Now same houses are on market. You can guess on average how much mortgage they had, and what it is now at 7%.
You need to look at the loans rather than the house prices. The median new loan was $360,000, which is obviously much easier to service than a million dollar loan.
Tron if you want to buy now or over last 3 years a million dollar mortgage is what you need to purchase average house in Auckland. 1.2 million cost hopefully you have 200k saved. This is the norm for last few years the average of 360k mortgage wouldn’t buy you anything. This would be why price’s will tumble as only top 10% of earners can buy from scratch in Auckland.
There's no point in denying the many unwilling subjects to seven figures of servitude that reside sleeplessly beyond those Bombay Hills. Some are doing it tough. For starters, consumer arrears is rocketing higher revealing the many householders budgets under pressure. 426,000 New Zealanders, or 11.7% of the credit active population, were now behind on their debt repayments,
https://www.mpamag.com/nz/news/general/consumer-arrears-still-on-the-ri…
People who have tapped out their mortgages will have probably resorted to even higher interest consumer credit to get by.
"Mortgage arrears fell for the second consecutive month in July"
Thanks for the link, RP.
As, I was asking DTR, do you know anyone on a median income who has a million dollar mortgage?
Do you know what the median mortgage is for new loans taken out? It's a lot less than you may think.
You're welcome! You might want to check out this link too then.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-stress-to-double-by-early-….
There is considerable uncertainty over how many will lose their jobs as we head into 2024. As you know, while we have our own economic issues, there are also global issues like Chinas slowdown. It could easily prove to be quite a wild card for house prices.
Forecasts are just that, forecasts. Forewarned is forearmed - right?
If someone is 57 lets say and loses their job, its sad but would it be the end of the world. They could probably spend more time online. What do you reckon
Tron I don’t know personally anyone with million dollar mortgage because most of my friend and family purchased years ago, but if my children or younger generations wanted to buy a half decent house a million dollar is what they need how is that a fair position to put younger generations into.Like I said to purchase from scratch in Auckland just can’t be done for most younger people.
Average FHB borrowing was $550k in 2021.
And $600k in May 2022.
4.56% was the average 1 yr fixed rate in may 2022.
Unfortunately
? Unfortunate for whom?
So the initial buzz was because National were the favorites to win.. but since the election and with Mr. Powerplay calling the shots, speculators have pulled back.. with the possibility of the foreign buyers policy being pushed under the rug and hence interest deductibility also vanishing
Yip, clever strategy for those who voted for a spanner in the works.
What do you mean interest deductibility vanishing , all three parties want to reinstate interest deductibility…
Yeah sure, if foreign buyers tax disappears, the 3 leaders will pay out of their pocket.. nice
I reckon there’s a decent chance GST will be raised to 17.5%, although they will be conscious of the inflationary impact. Maybe start it in 2025.
it does feel a bit dead
Have you been attending auctions & open homes?
It's not dead it's pining for the fjords
That parrot is DEAD
I think there is a real chance of interest deductibility being pegged back at 50%. If the foreign buying policy gets canned.... there will need to be compromises made. That news will hold investors back for the longer term. It's a curious situation
The media are going crazy and making things up because they have to wait another 1-2 weeks for an announcement. All I can say is wait and see what is announced at that time. It was fun to see Winston take the p!$$ out of the media for their silly questions.
Liquidity is drying up fast now and auctions are the canary in the coal mine. The 'conditional grid lock' stage has arrived where more and more people need to sell before they become unconditional. Prices are about to see the next leg down.
Interest rates about to come down, FHBs still keen to purchase, immigration up and investors back in the market all point to house prices remaining steady over the next 12 months.
With rates remaining elevated for some time to come and unemployment now trending higher, basically zero chance it remains steady which is which is why the sales rate just dropped as per this article.
HFL is over, just a matter of when. Most are predicting May 2024, and there may be a rapid decent between then and May 2025. Unemployment is still very low, and the upward trend is slow.
The sales rate at auction is just a small percentage of total sales. Wait to see the total sales figures for November.
I'm hoping black swan is on the money. Houses were unaffordable at 3% now prices are higher with higher %, with no end to high interest loans in sight. Didn't ANZ budget more for mortgagee sales.
The end is in sight for lower mortgage rates. This will certainly occur by May 2024, but with swap rates currently crashing ( 2 year swaps down from 5.8% down to 5.1% over a matter of days) there will be falls in mortgage rates before Christmas. That's the good news if you are looking to buy. The bad news is there isn't going to be another "leg down" in prices. Black Swan and DTRH and maybe 5 others are the only ones who believe that house prices will fall.
Check out the views of all the high profile economics experts. Even the more conservative ones such as Westpac, are predicting a 7.7% growth in prices in 2024.
Just an observation. On here, there seems to be about equal people arguing both interest rates and house prices going up and going down. Inversely related of course.
So it’s probably about right. Where we are may be a happy neutral.
True, but those predicting higher rates and lower prices get far more up votes - many are getting 10-20 up votes for statements which are clearly pleasing "the masses".
Maybe, just maybe cheaper housing is good for the social fabric of our country instead of the incessant greed displayed by many 'investors' which 10-20 upvoters agree with...just a guess.
61% of vendors were dreamin' mate !! .....if a property is priced to "meet the market" it WILL sell.
These vendors have listened to Tony A and his cronies for far too long .... and what will happen is they won't sell ....can't move on with their lives ......get totally frustrated ....and have to sell at a lesser amount down the track !
Yes, the "greed monster" is alive and well in Aotearoa.
True the best time to buy or sell a property is today !!!!
Told today that we can apply to subdivide, just need to be willing to plant 5 hectares in native bush to carve off 2H . All going well title in 2025, not sure if we move onto it and sell original or flick or just hold, Its damn hard to do this as most around here have been done = supply is about to decline....
Why is Wellington not on the table?
No auctions.
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