Buyers' market in housing may be on the horizon for 2024

Property / analysis

House buyers are likely to have plenty to choose from when they come back from their Xmas break

15th Dec 23, 8:15am by Greg Ninness

The residential real estate industry could be coming back from holiday to a buyer's market in the New Year.

The latest figures from property sales website Realestate co.nz and the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) show new listings of properties for sale are increasing at a greater rate than property sales, and asking prices are rising faster than selling prices.

Interest.co.nz compares the number of new listings received each month by Realestate.co.nz with the number of sales recorded by the REINZ the following month, which means October's new listings are compared with November's sales.

The first graph below plots the trends for both sets of numbers since the beginning of this year.

What this shows is that from March until the middle of this year the gap between new listings and sales narrowed considerable, and by July had almost closed completely, with just 647 more properties listed in June than were sold in July.

But since July, that gap has steadily increased and by November the difference between listings and sales had climbed to just over 3100 properties.

It's likely that the gap will have widened significantly once December's sales figures are in, because listings on Realestate.co.nz surged past the 10,000 mark in November, up 12% compared to October, while December's sales numbers are likely to be lower because it's a short month and sales activity is already starting to wind down ahead of the Christmas break.

On top of that, agents are reporting that there are high numbers of potential vendors ready to put their houses on the market when the market opens up again in the New Year.

So it looks like buyers will start the New Year with plenty to choose from.

On the price front, the price gap between average asking prices and median selling prices almost doubled in the second half of this year, rising from $68,000 in July to $131,000 in November.

Agents report the price squeeze is mostly coming on at the lower to middle end of the market, where affordability issues are to the fore, while things are a bit easier at the top end of the market where buyers have more equity and higher incomes and are less constrained by high mortgage rates.

So things are moving along relatively well for higher priced homes, but are more sluggish for middle to lower priced properties.

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115 Comments

by 1689 Baptist | 15th Dec 23, 8:42am 1702582944

With crazy immigration I think the effect will be short lived and regional. This is just seasonal noise.

by Zwifter | 15th Dec 23, 8:53am 1702583610

With all the migrants pouring into Auckland, pretty sure there will be a rush of Kiwi's trying to get out to retire early in the regions. Crazy immigration effects the whole country.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 9:38am 1702586285

Population flight from cities is a fairly widespread phenomenon as people age - it's been ramping up in NZ well before recent immigration rises.

by tothepoint | 15th Dec 23, 10:15am 1702588504

Auckland golden oldies notoriously head to Tauranga - if they're sufficiently well-healed.

Tauranga and Mt Maunganui have become expensive places these days - with prices destined to rise much, much further......

TTP

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 10:16am 1702588568

Anywhere sunny and flat.

by Sam Bridgman-Smith | 15th Dec 23, 9:01am 1702584103

I’d put my money on crazy immigration being short lived due to rising unemployment.

Rising unemployment also means more people selling up, getting flatmates or moving in with parents. Housing supply could well increase, reducing demand and causing further declines in house prices.

Ireland post GFC.

by Retired-Poppy | 15th Dec 23, 9:06am 1702584407

If/when Brightline is rolled back to two years this could also unleash a torrent of selling.

by 1689 Baptist | 15th Dec 23, 9:17am 1702585043

and buying

by Retired-Poppy | 15th Dec 23, 9:23am 1702585385

Sure, subject to a more attractive and affordable price point being reached.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 15th Dec 23, 10:47am 1702590440

Concur. I think this very likely too. "Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it."

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 11:13am 1702591992

Each new generation of investors learn the same lessons learned by previous generations.

by interesting1234 | 15th Dec 23, 3:18pm 1702606729

More important than generational wealth, is the generational knowledge that built that wealth

by John Mendel | 15th Dec 23, 1:42pm 1702600947

In your dreams. let's wait and see what happens once mortgage rates start to drop. Grab yourself a seat, I pay for the popcorn

by WellingtonInvestor | 15th Dec 23, 2:55pm 1702605320

Why are they going to drop any time soon? Record immigration will likely put more upwards pressure on inflation as more demand for everything.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 2:59pm 1702605553

Market rates will head down with or without the OCR moving.

by refactornz | 15th Dec 23, 3:12pm 1702606348

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125714/wholesale-interest-rates-drop…

by Sam Bridgman-Smith | 15th Dec 23, 8:54am 1702583664

Oh how wonderful, another commodified, basic human need that might become less expensive next year.

What a messed up economic system we primates have made for ourselves! Future generations will think we were nuts.

by Zachary Smith | 15th Dec 23, 9:09am 1702584568

Living space and boundaries have always been a primary concern of primates.

by Sam Bridgman-Smith | 15th Dec 23, 9:33am 1702586008

And then we turned those living spaces into a commodified object of speculation, leading to financial bubbles and declining standards of living for the majority.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 9:49am 1702586981

Land and property has traditionally been handed down via generations, in much of the world, including here and where most of our forebears lived.

It's become a high commodity due to urbanisation, as households get smaller and people have relocated away from their place of origin. These dense populations inherently lead to many going without home ownership as they are less able to compete with others who have higher incomes and other economic means.

We can clamp down on foreign buyers and investors all we want, but it won't have a middle class office workers out-competing a plastic surgeon for a house in a central suburb.

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 11:09am 1702591767

"won't have a middle class office workers out-competing a plastic surgeon for a house in a central suburb."

Family friends are a married couple of high income earning doctors who work in both private and public - one is a surgeon, and the other is a doctor involved in surgery.

They own in Orakei with another holiday home in the country and are potentially under mortgage stress.

It would be interesting to hear any other anecdotal stories of property owners in high socio-economic areas who are under mortgage stress.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 11:24am 1702592653

People across all income levels are prone to overloading in debt. Or spending all they earn and more.

The high income level doesn't necessarily dictate higher levels of financial discipline.

by Smudge02 | 15th Dec 23, 11:42am 1702593769

'The more you earn, the more you spend' is a common theme from what I see. I know people similar to the ones you have described, they are highly skilled, highly paid people who ironically have debt stress, work stress and therefore just stress in general. Some view them as "successful" but I woundn't want a bar of it. I'm happy to be 'unsuccessful' in that sense!

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 12:02pm 1702594950

Lots of people playing the game of "keeping up with the Jones's", spending way beyond their means, financed by debt.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 12:09pm 1702595357

And just consuming in general, it's a guiding principle of modern economies. Retailing is a recreational activity, crazy.

by Nzdan | 15th Dec 23, 1:40pm 1702600825

I wouldn't suggest they're trying to "keep up with the Jones's". I think it's just the income spectrum and what we've done is shift the goalposts dramatically when it comes to housing.

E.g. Low income house = $150k, Medium = $300k, High = $600k for argument's sake. Drop interest rates, now Low = $500k, Medium = $1m, High = $2m+. So people buy in the bracket that matches their income/servicing loads, and then the rug gets pulled on them (interest rates go up 3x).

But I get it, your stance is firmly glued in "individual responsibility" and any poor outcome is solely due to people being foolish. You would apply the same viewpoint if...say hypothetically....someone were prudent and bought a house 2 hours from the office only to find petrol prices hit $6 per liter.

by the Joneses | 15th Dec 23, 3:00pm 1702605602

Two doctors want to afford a holiday house? Maybe if they were more productive they could have their wish, like being a landlord of 6-8 houses or something.

by interesting1234 | 15th Dec 23, 3:23pm 1702606987

More productive? Doctors, like much of the healthcare sector, have been put through the ringer this last few years. First hailed as heroes in 2020 then worked to burn out in many cases and finally demonised for ever taking a sick day or a holiday.

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 4:31pm 1702611106

"your stance is firmly glued in "individual responsibility" "

With respect to mortgage borrowing, under the laws and regulations currently in place, everyone who is of sound mind, who agreed to the terms and conditions on the mortgage contract and voluntarily chose to sign that mortgage contract is responsible for meeting the terms and conditions of the contract that they voluntarily signed. That is the basis of contract law in New Zealand. Caveat emptor.

People are free to choose, however people are not free to choose the consequences of their choice.

If you want to change the current laws and regulations and mortgage borrowing in NZ - feel free to do so.

"You would apply the same viewpoint if...say hypothetically....someone were prudent and bought a house 2 hours from the office only to find petrol prices hit $6 per liter."

Yes, that would be correct. Would you be exposed to that potential situation? If so, how would you choose to deal with that scenario?

by Nzdan | 15th Dec 23, 4:50pm 1702612244

Fair points, we've been over this before. Heaven forbid a scenario of hyper inflation then, if a) mortgage rates went to double digits b) petrol prices went to $6 per liter and c) market rents increased by 50% in a year while wages stagnated.

Caveat emptor though right? People can always live under a bridge or in their car if they want to avoid any of those 3 things from happening.

With respect to Mortgage Borrowing though, I wonder what provisions are included in the responsible lending code and how lending costs have tripled. "Every lender must, at all times, exercise the care, diligence, and skill of a responsible lender". But why do we need the responsible lending code? Isn't it caveat emptor?

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 5:44pm 1702615482

"Heaven forbid a scenario of hyper inflation"

Hyper inflation has occurred in many countries recently.

ttps://www.statista.com/chart/31306/countries-with-the-highest-annual-increase…

Look at the impact on local residents

"Caveat emptor though right? People can always live under a bridge or in their car if they want to avoid any of those 3 things from happening. "

Look at how local residents are dealing with conditions of hyperinflation.

Had a friend who experienced hyperinflation in Zimbabwe.

Heaven forbid a scenario of an armed conflict.

Look at those mortgaged property owners in those situations. -

1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9sFtm89xLs

2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxNC89xdApU

There are the reports of many similar situations in previous armed conflicts where the families lost their entire wealth and more importantly lost their loved ones.

A friend's family lost their entire wealth and became refugees when they fled during the armed conflict in Vietnam .

by Nzdan | 15th Dec 23, 6:06pm 1702616818

Maybe if your friend's family made better choices then they wouldn't have lost their wealth. They chose to live in Vietnam, they should have known armed conflict was going to happen. Cavet emptor and all that.

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 6:46pm 1702619173

"They chose to live in Vietnam"

They didn't get a choice - they were born there. I don't know what the rules were on being able to get a passport to get out of there let alone get their wealth out of there at that time. Even if they were able to get passports, they may have been unable to get visas for entry / to stay in other countries.

"they should have known armed conflict was going to happen"

Don't know if they knew an armed conflict was going to happen.

There was an interesting story of another armed conflict elsewhere around the world, and how those local residents managed to get out and also some wealth out, which was used to start in another country. And they managed to do it even after all the clothes that they were wearing were removed after they were taken to a camp during the armed conflict.

by Nzdan | 15th Dec 23, 8:00pm 1702623633

They could have left the country before they gained wealth. But they chose to stay. Personal responsibility 100% comes into play. Armed conflict happens, they should have known and been prepared. They would have signed a contract to buy their house and took a risk storing any wealth in the bank. The bank and the military only doing their jobs so you can't blame them.

See how ridiculous I sound when I follow your narrative? It's easy to take the piss out of people's negative outcomes in hindsight, whether it be interest rates ratcheting up or their houses being bombed.

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 9:11pm 1702627873

" It's easy to take the piss out of people's negative outcomes in hindsight, whether it be interest rates ratcheting up"

NZdan,

Are you okay?

Are you or someone close to you facing a rapid rise in mortgage payments due to rising mortgage interest rates? Were the stress tests applied by the lender at the time of the mortgage application in 2021 below the upcoming mortgage interest rate that they will pay? Or are they under cashflow stress due to a reduction in household income? Perhaps they are facing a large unrealised loss in their equity deposit? (or even negative equity?)

If so, remember to look after your mental health.

by Nzdan | 16th Dec 23, 7:17am 1702664220

Nope nobody I know. It is possible to talk about things that don't impact someone personally. I just sympathize for anyone that does find themselves in the situation where they are struggling with ballooning interest rate costs and believe the banks didn't act in good faith by dropping the test rates. Evidence is how quickly they had to ratchet them back up. There will be a lot of people my age in that position.

Sure, people signed a contract and no laws were explicitly broken. You mention earlier I should change the law? I mean I'm not a politician so good luck with that, but the law/protections will never change if we consign the problem to "Caveat Emptor". We've had no problem bailing out grey haired finance company investors in the past, I'm sure many FHB wouldn't say no to 13.4c in the dollar written off their mortgage. But welfare is reserved for boomers.

by CN - new | 16th Dec 23, 3:37pm 1702694238

"I just sympathize for anyone that does find themselves in the situation where they are struggling with ballooning interest rate costs"

Had those cashflow stressed buyers chosen to rent, many owner occupiers who took on high levels of debt to buy would not be facing the issue with rising interest rates. Yet these were the comments made by commenters on this site. There was no mention of any risk of buying.

a) 9th Nov 21, 2:38pm

"I have always looked at this from the opposing direction - the risk in not owning a property? If you do not own a property you are short, not even square, but short"

b) 9th Nov 21, 5:52pm

"Or maybe right the opposite, don't hesitate, be brave and go for it, you'll be fine"

c) 23rd Nov 21, 8:52am

"It makes absolutely no sense for a couple like this to bank a capital gain now rather than wait two years and avoid 90k in taxes. The market is not going to crash 10% in the next two years."

d) 9th Nov 21, 2:38pm

"locally, I can not see anything in the near future that would decrease these current values."

f) 14th Oct 21, 11:25am

Shrewd investors will capitalise on perceived price weakness - cementing their position for the next market upswing. Well located property remains a prime investment for the long term. (But you already know that.)

These commenters caused potential real damage with their advice, as they didn't address the very real risks. Their interpretation is that omission of addressing risks is not saying that there was no risk and that buyers should have known that there was risk involved.

The examples of borrowers under cashflow stress highlight the real pain that has resulted as many borrowers were unaware of the risks that may have now caused the cashflow stress, and mental stress to owner occupier households who borrowed heavily to buy in the 2020 -2022 period. There are likely to be tens of thousands of households under cashflow stress.

Over the past several years, there have been other commentators repeatedly warning of these extremely elevated risks (including me), but the property bulls and property promoters (with their vested financial self interests) would repeatedly attempt to discredit these commenters (and their risk warnings) via the use of negative labels, and bullying tactics.

Many people believe that buying residential real estate is a safe investment "as safe a houses" and commonly cite long term house price trends, people who have made lots of money in residential real estate historically. The examples that I show that, under certain conditions, buying residential real estate is not a one way bet that many believe that it is - people can lose their entire lifetime of savings, and have their entire financial futures changed or even ruined. Not only the financial stress, but also the mental stress, and very unfortunately there will be some that resort to self harm.

I had close relatives who lost their home and other real estate in a previous period when mortgage rates rose rapidly, so I know the very real impact on families. These relatives never financially recovered and lived in social housing for the rest of their lives - when the parents died, their estate could not cover the cost of their funerals, so their adult children covered this cost. This has been the motivation for highlighting the extremely elevated risks for the past several years before the house price peak, so that people could avoid getting themselves into this position. People were free to choose to ignore or consider those risks that were being highlighted - that was their choice.

by CN - new | 16th Dec 23, 3:37pm 1702694269

The extreme house price and borrowing risks were preventable back in 2016 when the then Finance Minister did not give the RBNZ the tools they requested to address macroprudential risks. There was lobbying by those with their vested financial self interests to not implement the debt to income measures. It may also have become a political issue with the upcoming elections at the time and may have cost potential votes for the incumbent government at the time - this policy would have adversely impacted property investors, and most owner occupier buyers - a potentially large voting constituency.

RBNZ's DTI plans hit by Government changes | interest.co.nz

If you assume it would have taken 30 months (include time for preparation of the exposure draft), then the DTI framework may have been ready to go sometime in in 2019. This would have been before interest rates reached their record low levels in mid 2021.

If a debt to income ratio of 5 was imposed back in 2019, then a significant amount of lending would not have been made (and house prices would have been less likely to have reached their record levels).

As a result of that single decision, this will result in potentially thousands of highly leveraged owner occupiers who purchased in 2020 - 2022 being collateral damage. This will cause cashflow stress, mental stress and unfortunately, some will resort to self harm.

This will likely also lead to an increase in demand for social housing.

by alphabeatrium | 15th Dec 23, 11:36am 1702593414

Historically, the alternative is violence.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 11:40am 1702593635

Rarely. Most people just put up with their situation.

by rumpole294 | 15th Dec 23, 12:41pm 1702597269

History is about to repeat itself.

by Retired-Poppy | 15th Dec 23, 8:58am 1702583896

.....all shaping up as expected.

by Thats All Folks | 15th Dec 23, 9:08am 1702584537

I'm sure the title squatters will be along shortly to berate you for stating the obvious....

by rastus1 | 15th Dec 23, 9:14am 1702584863

...any time now the stampede to the exit door begins.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 9:46am 1702586799

Where does the door lead?

People sell property in a recession out of financial necessity, as a last resort. They still have to live somewhere, and will eradicate most other expenses before ditching a house.

This will also happen with many businesses, people take a long time to give up on things they've invested so much in.

by rastus1 | 15th Dec 23, 11:10am 1702591857

Gotta get out that door before the exit is blocked - otherwise bruised and beaten.

Specu-vestors who have lost their job/business/had a pay cut and are tired of propping up their declining s##t box tenant induced headache will bail.

Then we have demographics = downsizing/selling off the rentals.

by JimboJones | 15th Dec 23, 11:13am 1702591993

Probably a lot of divorce in a recession too

by rumpole294 | 15th Dec 23, 12:43pm 1702597391

And divorce creates demand 2 live in one house, individually they require two.

by JimboJones | 15th Dec 23, 1:05pm 1702598743

But they only have half the money to spend

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 11:25am 1702592726

A previously high profile property promoter and developer with over 60 investment properties at one stage went low profile in the media. Why? He was selling his entire investment property portfolio.

Last heard that as of Aug 2023, he still doesn't own any investment properties.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 11:27am 1702592869

Gotta get out that door before the exit is blocked - otherwise bruised and beaten.

Except it's likely a storm than a door. Batter down the hatches and brace yourself, and the survivors are usually out the other side better off than anyone else.

How things usually go anyway, downturns are a markets way of cutting out those on the margins.

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 11:58am 1702594708

"Specu-vestors who have lost their job/business/had a pay cut and are tired of propping up their declining s##t box tenant induced headache will bail."

Wonder how many retail businesses will close down in 2024 after this Christmas /summer season. If their Christmas / summer season revenues are poor, then they may choose to close down as the rest of the year is loss making and there is insufficient cash to maintain the business. Business closures and more unemployed.

Then the impact on commercial landlords with vacant space. No cashflow vs rising mortgage costs and falling commercial property valuations.

by rumpole294 | 15th Dec 23, 12:45pm 1702597527

But its different in NZ until it isn't and that time is close.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 1:54pm 1702601655

Could I perhaps interest you in a "this time it's different" cooler bag?

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 11:41am 1702593715

"They still have to live somewhere"

Some will need social housing. This is likely to see a further increase in numbers waiting on social housing wait lists.

It will also likely mean an increase in government spending on social housing.

by 26@Main | 15th Dec 23, 12:30pm 1702596619

A bit off topic, but saw the below article about Kainga Ora bringing in modular houses made in China. Seems a good way to increase supply of social housing quicker and extra housing in general, if only the price of land was cheaper.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/hamilton-housing-demand-sees-kainga-ora-import-pre-built-units-from-china/UMZLR44QQJFVLCUEQCM4VS56VM/

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 2:45pm 1702604724

These sorts of initiatives always struggle delivering value, unless they're done in extremely high volume.

Usually a handful will turn up, and the people installing them will have to reinvent the wheel readying the groundworks, and much of the fittings and fixtures will need modifying/replacing, because they'll be substandard, or incompatible.

by Nzdan | 15th Dec 23, 3:38pm 1702607881

Or contain asbestos.

by 26@Main | 15th Dec 23, 6:28pm 1702618094

Do you have personal experience of the reinventing the wheel type stuff? Surely KO have the resources and skilled staff to ensure this doesn't happen and if it does, surely it would only happen once. The article says that inspections are done before the buildings leave China to make sure they comply with NZ standards. I may be wrong but you come across as someone who has a vested interest in keeping supply of houses low and prices high.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 6:57pm 1702619841

I'm someone involved in the construction industry who shakes their head and sighs at the dumb ways public and private institutions try and save money. Because usually the ideas are made by bean counters and designers, who have little clue about how to achieve efficiency.

In regards to prefab attempts, I've seen the education sector attempt this and it end up costing more per square metre than if they just did a traditional build. Part of that's the challenge in marrying up something made off-site, and trying to tie it into where they end up physically lieing.

Prefabs can work, but they need to be done at scale, with the whole process worked out end to end. Instead attempts get made, the final bill ends up being horrific, and the project gets abandoned.

I've stated quite a few times already that housing supply needs to increase, quite dramatically, and costs need to come down. But I also know it's a far way, if ever, from occuring - hence I don't see anything getting cheaper anytime soon.

by Nzdan | 15th Dec 23, 8:05pm 1702623946

Surely one good way to do prefabs would be if you were starting with a greenfield area, the council zones a space that's commercial. Initially you build the pre-fab facility within the commercial zone

Once the pre-fabs are done for that subdivision, you pack up the gear and that warehouse then becomes a retail shop/supermarket.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 10:06pm 1702631160

Mmmm, maybe? What we currently have is a bit of an in-between, where most greenfield subdivision builds have the framing components assembled in factories off-site, delivered and erected onsite and then the house gets finished.

Using your proposed system, you're still down for all those fitout aspects in the temporary local factory, but it's probably zero-sum; your tradies aren't having to travel to each individual site to install toilets, joinery etc, but then you have the effort of moving the house from the greenfield factory to the site, then place and connect all the services, etc.

Really, there needs to be a nationwide effort with a smaller handful of large factory facilities, to take advantage of much higher scale volumes than a typical greenfield subdivision.

by Nzdan | 16th Dec 23, 7:33am 1702665202

The great thing about a Greenfield development is that you have a certain level of control over traffic management for moving the prefab to site.

If there's enough pre-fab volume (e.g. 100 out of a 300 house subdivision), I'm sure the sub-trades (electrical, plumbing etc) would have no issue dropping a container and a portacom on site for 6 - 12 months of guaranteed work if they're nominated by tender.

by Pa1nter | 16th Dec 23, 8:13am 1702667625

The subbies still have to travel to the subdivision though, and one subbie might be doing 50-100 houses as it is; so the only difference is instead of moving from 11 New Subdivision Place to 13 New Subdivision place, they're going to a central point in the whole subdivision. And trades like Electrical, Plumbing and Foundation will still need to go to the individual sites, to do their ground services and hook up to the prebuild once it gets there.

There's probably some efficiency on the actual builder component though, all being done in one area.

by 26@Main | 15th Dec 23, 8:44pm 1702626259

Appreciate your comments given you work in the field. The KO initiative Project Velocity sounds promising in terms of getting a multidisciplinary team working together closely in what is an apparently fragmented industry. I have no knowledge in this field but would be interested in your comment if you have one:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129143285/building-more-houses-faster--the-government-project-to-drastically-shorten-the-amount-of-time-it-takes-to-build-a-house

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 10:18pm 1702631914

My first question would be what they deem to be "pre-construction". From my view this is all the aspects to pull together everything required to start a build; securing a site, design, consent, tender, contract allocation and programming.

The way I'm seeing KO operate right here and now, just the tender process is taking 2 months.

I've said this already, but we worked out how to build affordable houses at scale, 70-odd years ago. The process then was:

- come up with a set of designs, using unified components (so like the same windows, cladding, roofing, etc)

- identify a small handful of approved builders

- set clearly defined prices for the builds

- build 10s of thousands of homes

None of the above is currently occuring. KO is building a wild variety of houses (they can build 6 houses on one section, with no two being alike in terms of cladding, colours, shape or size), they're tendering most of them (so may never use the same builder twice, and the tender process takes a while and costs a lot), adding their own, non experienced oversight (only slows down the process), and aren't building many homes.

by 26@Main | 16th Dec 23, 11:30am 1702679454

Thanks for your detailed reply. I don't know what they deem as pre-construction but the linked article says they've dropped the time frame for it from 18 months down to a month although it doesn't include consent and tender. The Housing Delivery System gets the thumbs up from Jennian Homes in Christchurch but perhaps he wants to win a tender :) The old process sounds the go but from the little I know these days the industry is dominated with the likes of GJ Gardner rather than say the builder with his permanently employed team who frankly probably wasn't as greedy as some of the developers and contractors are today.

The Christchurch houses pictured in the link look good in terms of them looking all the same design, they're small and they don't take up a lot of land. It looks like a good solution to providing the social housing we need but I'm on the outside looking in and the inner workings may be a different story (edited to take out "I'm sure", because I'm not sure, KO may well be on to it and I hope they are).

https://newsroom.co.nz/2023/09/15/kainga-ora-ups-the-ante-in-race-to-build-more-homes/

by safeashouses | 15th Dec 23, 10:15am 1702588529

@ retiredpoppy, serious question and I would like to understand what are we expecting? Just as per above more properties for sale and a buyers market? or is there anything more apocalyptic?

by Retired-Poppy | 15th Dec 23, 10:26am 1702589192

Just per the above - continued on-trend top heavy selling for the time being - (very much a buyers market). Unless something jumps out of left field, I'm not expecting anything apocalyptic.

by longjohndrop | 15th Dec 23, 9:22am 1702585368

This is pretty poor data analysis.

Present 2 graphs with 2 squiggly lines over 2023 with no correlation and announce “BUYERS MARKET 2024”.

With respect did DGM commenters on this site (retired poppy) who make up facts, write this?

by mfd | 15th Dec 23, 9:41am 1702586505

I think the whole point of the analysis is the lines are not correlated, hence the projected increase in supply.

But yes, extrapolating somewhat noisy data is far from foolproof.

by Piggy | 15th Dec 23, 9:57am 1702587422

There are many factors pointing the other way to the conclusion in this article in my view, for example surging immigration, relax of the cccfa, reinstatement of interest deduction, pent up investor and fhb demand and the biggest of all - soon to be falling interest rates.

by JimboJones | 15th Dec 23, 10:58am 1702591109

Although the removal of brightline could cause many to sell

by JimboJones | 15th Dec 23, 11:11am 1702591882

"soon to be falling interest rates" - they will take a while to fall to a level where investment property makes sense, prob need the OCR down to 3% or less.

And you are missing another big factor - recession. Depending on how bad it gets, there could be forced sales, and probably not many people out there wanting to pay top dollar for property.

I would say it could go either way.

by 1689 Baptist | 15th Dec 23, 11:23am 1702592627

Property is low risk long term, easy to leverage, comparatively liquid comred to a business, and has tax advantages. With all that, most mum and dad investors are happy with an ROI that competes with term deposits. If the rental yield and capital gain are 4% each it achieves that modest goal.

by mfd | 15th Dec 23, 11:55am 1702594518

Dramatically less liquid than shares and generally lower returns, too, with no significant difference in tax treatment (property is currently worse, in fact).

Certainly easier and cheaper leverage, which can be a double edged sword as many cashflow negative investors will attest.

by rumpole294 | 15th Dec 23, 12:49pm 1702597790

Shares may be riskier as the underlying asset may disappear in a severe or long recession whilst property will devalue but remain.

by rastus1 | 15th Dec 23, 3:23pm 1702606998

What?

You can own shares in property and real assets like commodities you know?

Strewth!

by Yvil | 15th Dec 23, 5:50pm 1702615813

Try living in your property share certificate...

by CeeJ | 15th Dec 23, 4:03pm 1702609416

Lower returns per dollar invested, but its hard to invest 800,000 into a business quickly. So the total return for property could be higher.

by mfd | 15th Dec 23, 4:26pm 1702610796

You could invest 800,000 into shares tomorrow and the global market wouldn't notice. This would cost you a few dollars in transaction fees if you shop around.

by JimboJones | 15th Dec 23, 11:57am 1702594620

"low risk long term" if the population keeps outpacing the supply of houses. That might not be the case forever, especially as the boomer generation sell up.

by refactornz | 15th Dec 23, 11:26am 1702592801

With the massive dive in swap rates banks should be reducing home loan rates already. Maybe we'll see some interest rate specials pop up in January.

by JimboJones | 15th Dec 23, 11:58am 1702594708

Agree, but they need to come down a long way (about 30%) before yields start to match the TD rate.

by Mystery | 15th Dec 23, 6:13pm 1702617206

Rental yields don't have to match the yields in a TD for a property investment to be attractive/successful. With RE investing there is also the potential for capital gains, which together with rental yield can beat TD rates by a long shot on a good year.

by rumpole294 | 15th Dec 23, 12:50pm 1702597851

Banks will only reduce rates when the majority of loans have re fixed at higher rates.

by The Black Swan | 15th Dec 23, 10:09am 1702588173

People are now trying to offload toy assets at the fastest pace for years to save the house. Trade me across NZ now has 4,700 motor boats for sell, this was below 4,000 at the start of 2023.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 10:14am 1702588474

There's certain things that have spiked in listings for sure.

I noticed VW Kombis 4-5 months ago. Great example; expensive, fairly unusable, vanity vehicle that's the first to go once things get tight.

Prices on all of these things hasn't shifted much yet.

by interesting1234 | 15th Dec 23, 10:20am 1702588839

Boomers mid-life crisis cars being sold off also due to lack of use. All the old 50's USA built models of yesteryear. Oddly enough most folk on Aus don't want a car older than 20 years old so 70's Toyotas (worth a pretty penny here in relative terms) can sell for a few hundred dollars over there.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 10:31am 1702589462

Some of them pretty cheap, thirsty, and most people want to buy hero cars from their youth - hence classics from the 40s and 50s will plummet, as buyers die off.

by rastus1 | 15th Dec 23, 3:21pm 1702606911

I'm expecting a drive in the price of second hand done up Harleys (not that I would want one).

Boomer toy to re-live a youth they didn't have.

Harley itself will follow. The young have little interest in such a tractor.

Though I guess the gang demand will hold up well.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 3:48pm 1702608480

Harley is having issues selling new bikes for similar reasons; younger riders don't want them.

by Colonial Viper | 15th Dec 23, 10:14am 1702588478

Locals at the nearby rural lake report seeing the fewest boats and jet skis there this summer yet. Either people are too busy to have fun - or they've decided that staying away is an easy method to save the $200 round trip in diesel it takes to tow the boat there and back from the city.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 10:18am 1702588685

Wanna come fishing? If we can catch 3 Snapper, they're only $50 each.

by IT GUY | 15th Dec 23, 8:01pm 1702623661

Not much is selling, i have won $1 reserve auctions that would normally sell $20's or $30, for $1. the jets have been cooled

by agnostium | 15th Dec 23, 10:25am 1702589121

Another two people from my firm heading to OZ. This time they are director level. Not keen on the direction of new government and fancy the prospects look better in OZ.

We have recruited a couple of talented graduate level Kiwis but the remaining ones that have 5+ years experience are heading overseas in the next year.

by Te Kooti | 15th Dec 23, 10:31am 1702589509

Article this morning saying 4 of our largest navy vessels are out of action due to lack of staff. We may even have to ask Australia to assist with local requirements.

I'm picking staff have all packed up and left, or we can't afford to service the ships.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 15th Dec 23, 10:55am 1702590941

I heard through the grapevine that the navy has various 3rd parties contracted to do work that was previously done by naval staff. It is not a pleasant experience working for the 3rd parties I was told.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 11:06am 1702591577

This has also been happening in the Air Force for quite some time. To the point where enlisted are out numbered, depending on the base.

by Black and White | 15th Dec 23, 11:49am 1702594146

2024 is going to be a fantastic year.

This NZ first government is really making it happen.

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 12:06pm 1702595188

It's interesting that National usually inherit a recession coming into power.

Not that there's likely much causality there, except maybe the population voting Labour out after the economy gets stale.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 15th Dec 23, 1:28pm 1702600095

Sort of assume most govts are ditched when economy is bad.

by Black and White | 15th Dec 23, 1:51pm 1702601489

The National party is so clever this wouldn't fazes them.

Looking forward to seeing the rock stars perform with no laundered money or printed money.

Grab a seat guys this could be there best comedy show in town.

I wonder if they will play the blame game?

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 3:12pm 1702606374

It fits in with their inclination for austerity. And a market downturn usually has a short enough life that they can take credit when things improve.

by John Mendel | 15th Dec 23, 1:51pm 1702601461

House prices will continue to rise!

So how do I know that? easy! more people are coming than leaving, Auckland does not have enough "good" houses, rent is very high, and GOV and banks won't let that happen.

by Thats All Folks | 15th Dec 23, 2:34pm 1702604079

The government wouldn't let house prices fall?

Where have you been the last 2 years?

by WellingtonInvestor | 15th Dec 23, 2:58pm 1702605506

House prices have already crashed 20% from peak when factoring in inflation. Rising house prices only benefit a few. Everyone else faces increased costs such as increased insurance costs

by John Mendel | 15th Dec 23, 6:41pm 1702618863

Luxon and his parliament friends have many houses, 20% is already too much for them.

From the bank perspective, if your house worth less than 20% (deposit), it might put the bank under pressure in case of a mortgagee sale

by Averageman | 15th Dec 23, 8:04pm 1702623874

Oh. This will unleash a torrent spruker pump posts. Oh...the first 5 posts are exactly that.

More listings with a torrent to come on reduction of flipper tax window. Less buyers with foreign buyer restriction, and those working here being limited from their own stupidity by more prudent access to capital. Then there's the interest rates.

Supply and demand....?

by CN - new | 15th Dec 23, 6:51pm 1702619499

"This will unleash a torrent spruker pump posts. "

This comment tells the audience a lot about the commenter who chose to publish this comment - "Try living in your property share certificate..."

by Pa1nter | 15th Dec 23, 7:11pm 1702620663

TIL commenting on evident trends about internal and age related migration is spruiking.

Maybe turn it down from 11 to about a 3, have some big boy pants discussion. Otherwise someone can write you a decent macro to cycle the 3-4 varied posts you make, save you some time.

by catbounce | 16th Dec 23, 2:45am 1702647919

Buying a house for 500k with cash means your missing out on 6% in interest in the bank on that 500k. That's $460/week after 20% tax. You can rent something for $500/week, so buying or renting, your still paying $500/week one way or the other, rent or lost interest payments, same thing.

But with buying your also paying rates and insurance and maintenance etc etc. probably another 5k / year. So effectively it's costing you at least 30k of after tax income (38k of your wage, before tax) just to service your very basic New Zealand lifestyle of a 500k house

Screw all that, I'm living in Vietnam. Nice modern one bedroom serviced apartment with unlimited wifi for 650nzd /month. Electricity is $40/month ($100 in summer), phone bill is $8/month and everything food related is dirt cheap. My 500k cash is still earning 6% interest which returns more than I need to live each month. Except my hypothetical 500k I've used is actually a bit more than double that so I'm still saving more in interest payments than what the minimum wage earns a week in new Zealand without needing to work or battle the rat race in NZ.

Hope you young people can see there are alternatives ways to play the system and you don't need to be a sheep and sign up to a 25 year mortgage sentence paying the bank! Just need to get the money behind you first, somehow, anyhow, get it done. I'd recommend highly to go to Australia!

Plus, house prices are going down, so that's another win. Don't listen to any noise that they are rising slowly, they aren't! Untill interest rates start to drop, price will continue to slowly drop

by NZGecko | 16th Dec 23, 9:21am 1702671691

Exactly CB.

2024 Will see a flood of housing hit the market and with interest rates above 4.5% will see buyers restricted and housing still in the biggest downwards spiral in generations.

People paying 600k plus currently ......will see their deposit cash evaporate in 2024.

Hold and watch housing get much cheaper in 2024!

by Harvey W | 16th Dec 23, 1:10pm 1702685412

Nope, prices are rising, 5-10% in 2024, redo your sums based on that, act quickly, and you'll be glad you did.

by NZGecko | 17th Dec 23, 1:03pm 1702771405

The sums do not support current prices of this Housing ponzi.

No way in hell can 2 to 4% rental yields sustain, at interest rates above 4.5%

Gamblers high on hopium of capital gains, are going to get a reality check and the bank calling you up, to sell and deleverage, when loan payments get missed.

Reset much lower still in play over 2024 and 2025.