High stock levels in the housing market at the start of this year mean buyers have plenty to choose from over summer

There will be a lot more in July. The market will flat for a spell unless those whose residency was fast-tracked all start buying. 

Listings are increasing but vendor expectations are still too high. I think this will change as the beginnings of fear is starting to spread in the collective sentiment. Do you remember the mania in 2021? It feels totally different now after a few short years. Now we’re seeing more and more articles on distressed mortgagees, developers in trouble, construction work starting to dry out and the realisation that a new Nat govt can’t prop up the ponzi. Ordinary conversations reflect the change too. Phobos is in the air.

On top of that, there is the insanity that is playing out in China: 20 million unfinished building projects due to developers going bust! Reuters link: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Ce8heYO9Q.

These external events surely will affect us?

More supply, less able to buy due to normalized cost of debt all indicates one direction in price under supply and demand logic. Perhaps every recent immigrants will go on a crazed buying frenzy. 

Perhaps not. They could just wait for citizenship then hit west island as many already are.

Don't fall for the bull trap..

Seen it first-hand here in my neighbourhood in Napier where a lot of properties have come on to the market over the past 2 weeks. Sure am glad I am not trying to sell at this time!

New listings - but from my observations, the majority are rubbish. Rentals, c##p locations and  big cap spend required. Good home, good location still scarce.

I'm sure Tony Alexander will put a positive spin on it! More people selling into the red hot market or something like that...

Yeah right, Many of them are apartments and townhouses, who'd want to buy those?!

If you're interested there are few of them in Browns Bay, for 600K you can get an AMAZING 2 bedies townhouse

Good houses always sell above the market price, saw one before XMAS, sold 200K above CV 

Aside from those being forced to sell due to high interest rates, this is also the effect of the 5 year Brightline period rolling off.  Now all those who bought in 2018 and 2019 can sell up.  From July everyone who bought prior to July 2022 can sell up.  There is going to be a surge of listings then.

Only the beginning of the slippery slope of no buyers at overinflated prices, with interest rates remaining the same for the rest of the year (unless there is a recession) ....but don't worry AC, TA and the honest as the day is long, TTP have all got your back, so you have nothing at all to worry about, so rest easy folks. 

All "property ponzi parties" always have a limited shelf life....and the shelf on this one is losing it's grip on the wall of financial reality.

Some people logic is a bit of a worry, who cares about a lot of listings ? People are just looking to move, if they sell their house they just end up buying another and on more than one occasion I have seen people move just up the road or not even  leaving their current suburb. House get bought and sold far too frequently in NZ, the average must be like 4 years and owners get bored or something.

A few months back, I sat down and did some number crunching with some 'property investor' friends who wish to sell their rentals but wanted to do 'spruce ups' before selling. Mostly kitchen and bathroom updates, garden tidy ups, fresh paint, minor repairs, etc.

All wanted to sell this summer. It turns out that the maths says it is better to wait for next summer. We ran a spreadsheet with numerous inputs and outputs tested. And used wine to ensure we thought of all factors ;-) And re-checked in the following week - with no wine. ;-)

Some of the contributing factors to this outcome were a) lower mortgage rates, b) larger reno labor pool and more competitive pricing, c) lower reno product pricing (especially from China), d) greater buyer pool, e) clearer tax implications, f) fewer new builds on offer, g) time unrented, etc. A big downer is that a recession, driven by our friendly RBNZ, may mean it takes way longer sell.

I guess what I'm saying is that supply may be just as good next summer if others have done the same analysis we did and reached the same conclusion.

Took the plunge and bought our first home last week in Birkenhead so just to give a sense of the sentiment I gathered since late November and in the 30+ open homes visited.

Seemed like plenty of interest around, not sure how many are just curious neighbours but lots of properties listed for only 3 weeks had over 90 groups through them (not sure what standard is in Auckland but agents seemed pleased enough obviously in comparison to early 2023). But in conversations with agents buyers niggly on work they have to do and precious about any maintenance. It seems many FHBs in suburbs nearish to central Auckland are not willing to put in some work themselves and are just seeing the tradie price in their eyes when looking at do-ups. One property (CV 1,040) we put in a $927k offer due to the sheer amount of work required (failing retaining walls, asbestos paint inside, non-internal access garage, cross-lease, etc. Buyer accepted higher offer with more conditions and it fell through. Agent was then calling me to bid more even though since our offer failing cladding issues were discovered... This property has since been withdrawn from market, (sellers were trying to sell out investment property).

Agents told me the amount of conversations they were having when asking why buyers weren't interested in properties  because of things like 'astroturf' and unwilling to be putting down grass themselves (with full drainage already installed)... really on the margin stuff for a near $million investment fixes that will cost practically nothing. I think maybe just a higher proportion of FHBs these days have a lot less practical keeness, but those that do can find great deals and add lots of value to their property for some effort. Or maybe as with us, not willing to pay the purchase price near their budget max because then you're stuck in a crappy home as you try and save enough to do a reno with a huge mortgage.



I'd say if you're putting up an owner occupied well-maintained property up on the market you'll do fine. Our property has a few niggles, we managed to grab it about 7% below CV on the day. Other properties that I would say were modernised well, especially flat, easy care sites with good indoor-outdoor flow and at least parking for a couple vehicles were going well above CV on auction day.

Trying to think if it's better to bury my head in the sand now around market sentiment since we aren't looking to sell for 5+ years and we can afford our house at current interest rates (somewhat hoping they'll reduce but also realistic they may stick for a couple years). Hey if in 5 years it's even worth what we paid for it now I'll be happy and even at some loss. I'm not in this property for an investment in the end. I want a home with my wife. I want freedom. 

I wonder how much of the listing surge is down to the brightside test being pegged back to two years? There must be a number of people liberated to sell their properties without a burdensome tax.

There were no auctions in the last 1.5 months, what did you expect to happen, buyers cancel their vacation and buy a property instead?! 

It's like saying, in the last 2 months the number of job has reduced 90% (OMG.. we're facing a serious recession ;) 

Let's wait and see the next quarter Feb-Apr before jumping into conclusions  

Rates staying high and more sellers then buyers = lower prices.....

10% down this year and the same next year, NZ is priced to high given crap wages, when compared to most other locations.

Can we please stop using American graphics to illustrate I.Co's real estate commentary?

Increase in listing is clear, but houses are sitting and not selling due to high price expectations. Less going to auction, less selling at auctions. More houses are deadline sales to hide the lack of interest, followed by fixed price when they do not sell. 

Something has to give. RB proposed limits of debt to income, ANZ saying RB will increase the rate, POP?