Net migration turns negative as more people leave the country long term than arrive

Property / news

A sharp increase in the number of NZ citizens leaving the country long term has pushed the country into negative population growth from migration

10th Jul 24, 11:45am by Greg Ninness

Photo: Marek Ślusarczyk

There was a net loss of just over 2000 people due to migration in May, as more people left the country long term than arrived.

It was the first time that there was net loss of population due to migration since June 2022, when migration patterns were still recovering from earlier pandemic travel restrictions.

Statistics NZ estimates that 17,340 people arrived in the country long term in May, while 19,383 departed long term, giving a net loss of 2043 for the month.

Long term arrivals have been relatively stable at 17-18,000 a month since October last year, while long term departures jumped sharply from 9578 in October last year to 10,221 in November last year and have grown particularly strongly over the three months to May.

In May last year there was a net gain of 10,719 people, so there has been a substantial turnaround in migration trends since then.

Outside of the period when travel patterns were disrupted by pandemic restrictions, May this year was the first month to have recorded a net population loss from migration since June 2013.

If that trend continues and net migration levels remain in negative territory or even at very low levels for an extended period of time, it will have major implications for the economy and infrastructure such as housing, transport, health and education, because it would likely mean we would have a shrinking population.

In May just 2359 NZ citizens arrived back in the country after an extended stay overseas, while 14,981 citizens of other countries arrived long term.

In the same month, 10,614 NZ citizens departed these shores long term while 8769 citizens of other countries departed long term.

That gave a net loss of 8255 NZ citizens for the month and a net gain of 6212 citizens of other countries for the month.

However, the migration figures from Statistics NZ are estimates and it takes 16 months for them to be finalised.

The early estimates, such as those for May this year could be subject to significant revisions.

The comment stream on this article is now closed.

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138 Comments

by Thinker | 10th Jul 24, 11:50am 1720569030

Long may this continue. With the poor job market, I expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future with departure numbers continuing to rise (as I’ve alluded to the last 4 months). We’ve effectively had 0 population increase in the last two months now.

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 11:53am 1720569207

That’s a pretty sad view. Nothing good about depopulation.

by Thinker | 10th Jul 24, 11:58am 1720569494

Short-term it's essential. When you're in a recession and have a situation of unemployment rising you don't want excessive population growth as this increases the pool of available workers and drives unemployment higher for kiwis - pretty self explanatory stuff.

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 12:02pm 1720569726

Lump of labour fallacy. It’s not just labour supply getting on that plane, it’s consumer demand. And the people who can easily leave are probably middle class young people with a higher propensity to consume. Equals fewer jobs locally.

by Murray Falconer | 10th Jul 24, 12:15pm 1720570546

consumer demand

Great, we'll be able to meet whatever fixed target for emissions we've signed up to without planting so much farmland in trees.

the people who can easily leave are probably middle-class young people

Well, if you want to keep them here then maybe face up to the reason they're leaving. The one thing we *could* easily compete with Australia on is cost of housing (land). We chose not to with tax, zoning, building and immigration rules which also made sure wages were suppressed. We continually get what we've asked for at the polling booths as a nation.

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 12:23pm 1720570990

We have a capped ETS, so this argument makes no sense
There’s no evidence that immigrant labour suppresses wages at a macro level. The opposite actually.

Hard agree on zoning/building though. Luckily this govt is making delightful progress, between Bishop and Penk’s announcements over the past few months.

by Baywatch | 10th Jul 24, 12:30pm 1720571439

Zoning/building for who...? Delightfull progress towards a shrinking population.

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 12:35pm 1720571711

I don’t recall them stating it was for a specific group. That would’ve been strange.

So the population shrinkage which is the subject of this article was caused by Bishop and Penk’s zoning/construction policy announcements? Or you think they will shrink the population once implemented? What do you mean?

by Murray Falconer | 10th Jul 24, 12:51pm 1720572672

1. More people = more demand = more pollution. ETS wasn't what I was referring to - arbitrary rules that may or may not solve some symptom can be changed anytime. I do care about non-per capita international undertakings we've made as those are less easily walked away from.

2. No evidence does not mean something isn't true, has it even been looked at via this 'macro level' per capita or are you conflating total wages vs per capita wages? That said, may I assume you would agree there is evidence at the individual job level - which frankly is enough for me to count is as a negative.

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 1:10pm 1720573844

Fewer people = credit gets cheaper = more energy use per capita. This is the domestic ETS, I’m not talking about intentional obligations. There seems to be a lot of confusion between these two seperate schemes.

I’m not stating there’s an absence of evidence on the question generally; quite the opposite. There’s numerous studies showing that immigrants do not suppress local wages. Some individual jobs, sure. But is that really how you would make economic policy? Seems insane.

by Murray Falconer | 10th Jul 24, 1:32pm 1720575165

Fewer people = credit gets cheaper = more energy use per capita

I'm not sure about the middle one, but let's say it's true. More energy use per capita doesn't mean more energy use in total, it may, but it would be unlikely. This was my point; total energy use would likely be less with less people. Our international obligations have been signed up as totals, so a rise in per capita doesn't matter. All I'm saying it that it's harder for one person to double their pollution and emissions than for two people to half theirs.

There’s numerous studies showing that immigrants do not suppress local wages.

Perhaps you could share one, but obviously they won't if you're brining in only doctors, but we aren't. Looking at a macro level hides the real damage being done. Here are some supporting my view that those 'employed' either undercut an NZ worker that would never put up with such treatment or stopped them being offered a job in the first instance:

The insidious return of 'slavery' - The University of Auckland

Domino's pizza franchise owner gets home detention on migrant exploitation charges | RNZ News

Nelson restaurant 'ripped off' employees during quiet hours, must pay $30,000 (msn.com)

Migrant exploitation: Imam and Southland dairy farm owner Reza Abdul-Jabbar fined - NZ Herald

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 1:49pm 1720576191

I suspect we’d use most of the energy allowed by the cap. But maybe you’re right, it might be marginally less. Either way, there are much better policy tools to lower emission than encouraging the exodus of skilled people (like simply lowering the ETS cap).

Well typically the immigrant labour creates complimentary jobs. So it does create better jobs for locals (someone has to maintain the machines used for fruit picking by migrants etc). And one of the studies in question was a natural experiment from an influx of low skilled Cuban migrants into the US. Even a someone with a high school education typically contributes more than they take, to the tune of 6 figures.

You’re just providing anecdotes of migrant exploitation. Sad, but irrelevant.

by Murray Falconer | 10th Jul 24, 5:56pm 1720590988

Well typically the immigrant labour creates complimentary jobs.

Yes, but those jobs are like the ones I linked to and not actually legal. You underestimate the scale of these practices.

So it does create better jobs for locals

Those could also be done by another immigrant; your conclusion seems a bit of a stretch.

I'm not sure why we're talking about Cuban's, plenty of evidence of things going wrong with immigration and population induced demand right here in NZ. Dismissing my examples as anecdotes is unfair, these are the tip of the iceberg and hard, often court determined facts and I have over a hundred of such rulings. They can no longer be dismissed as a handful of bad apples as you seek to do. This demand you yearn comes with a heavy price. Time to put up your studies for critique PUK!

by mfd | 10th Jul 24, 12:49pm 1720572583

Working in healthcare, the last thing we need right now is more consumer demand.

by Zwifter | 10th Jul 24, 11:58am 1720569499

Everything is good about less people here in New Zealand, it was a far better place to live with half the people that there is now. The entire world population needs to take a dive for the sake of the quality of life for the remaining people on the planet.

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 12:02pm 1720569776

Strongly disagree on all counts.

by Ocelot | 10th Jul 24, 1:00pm 1720573223

Well, you're currently getting ratio'd. Right now you're down 12:1

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 1:11pm 1720573913

Don’t care. You’re getting ratioed by the current and previous governments lol. Serious people ignore this xenophobic Degrowth trash.

by Baywatch | 10th Jul 24, 1:15pm 1720574105

Are you serious?

by Ocelot | 10th Jul 24, 1:45pm 1720575933

You know they're lying when they try to use propaganda techniques to push a narrative. Wanting a country that isn't awash with people that we have nowhere to put, or ability to provide public services and utilities for has nothing to do with xenophobia.

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 2:00pm 1720576810

Yeah probably shouldn’t have said that, to be fair.

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 1:59pm 1720576740

100%

by Averageman | 10th Jul 24, 2:02pm 1720576964

Why is needing infrastructure in place before mass migration xenophobic?

by dumbthoughts | 10th Jul 24, 4:27pm 1720585621

I don't think they've realised that we've moved past that word (and its "r-word" sibling) being the instant argument-ender it once was. Discussing the (questionable) value of most Western immigration systems, including New Zealand, is mainstream debate now.

There is nothing actually xenophobic about wanting to control population to a level that existing services and infrastructure can support, and which means a "better deal" for those already here in terms of less competition for jobs and less demand for housing.

It's just a lazy word thrown out there to try and shut down the debate.

by pacifica | 10th Jul 24, 5:37pm 1720589860

Except all people need schools and hospital access and we don' t have enough or the funds to build more. We don't even have the funds to maintain & staff the ones we have to a basic functional level that does not threaten the lives of those within them. But hey you do you. You don't need education or medical care eh. Only those people you consider beneath your concern do and they obviously don't matter to you except of course for helping lower wages for staffing and providing higher rental incomes.

by hagris | 12th Jul 24, 7:14am 1720725257

Serious people would consider you certifiable . Also find your name dis-ingenious - obviously chosen as a taut towards powerdownkiwi who quite frankly has far better ideas about humanity than you delusional prophets of endless growth . Appalling .

by Uncle Bulgaria | 10th Jul 24, 1:15pm 1720574120

Everyone thinks the good old days were always good.

by Ocelot | 11th Jul 24, 11:10am 1720653012

It was definitely better when a house was 3x household income instead of 10x household income.

by VancouverKiwi | 11th Jul 24, 4:19pm 1720671564

That household income was also only generated by one person, vs the current two working adults. So really what was 3x vs 10x, is more like 3x vs 20x...

by PitU | 10th Jul 24, 1:34pm 1720575275

Well. After you...

by rastus1 | 10th Jul 24, 3:46pm 1720583166

..try imagining you are a cow in a paddock with other cows....and the grass is running out.

by KH | 10th Jul 24, 6:22pm 1720592554

Nah. The place was better with a population of three million.

by IT GUY | 10th Jul 24, 11:53am 1720569211

This should help those in the rental market with less competition.

by Murray Falconer | 10th Jul 24, 12:06pm 1720569992

No, no, no - population growth from immigration has not, I repeat not, created additional demand for existing houses and driven rents up...

Those skilled immigrants are teaching us lazy dumb kiwi's how it's possible to live 20+ people per 3-bedroom abode - so we may make much more efficient use of existing resources.

by WestieAJ | 10th Jul 24, 12:14pm 1720570498

May 2023 to May 2024. Total increase nationwide for active tenancy bonds 6900.

by Toye | 10th Jul 24, 11:53am 1720569189

How many nails can the property market coffin take?

by IT GUY | 10th Jul 24, 11:57am 1720569467

Almighty God, Father of mercies and giver of comfort: Deal graciously, we pray, with all who mourn; that, casting all their care on you, they may know the consolation of your love; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

by DDDDebt | 10th Jul 24, 12:02pm 1720569772

Snap goes the last leg of the NZ property market.

We could say that ‘price discovery’ is now truly upon us but as this term triggers some people we are better to use the words ‘fear’ and ‘capitulation’ to describe this technical stage of the collapse.

However, it will still take 6 long months or more before someone in MSM uses the C word.

by IT GUY | 10th Jul 24, 12:09pm 1720570165

I think we should hold a wake after the REINZ June 24 report lands next week

by linklater01 | 10th Jul 24, 12:11pm 1720570280

IT Guy,

Why are you posting this? Religion should be kept out of this forum.

by Frank. | 10th Jul 24, 12:30pm 1720571411

Why?

by Baywatch | 10th Jul 24, 12:33pm 1720571602

Exactly Frank..there is so much hocus pocus commentary already on this site..why stop religious talk?

by Frank. | 10th Jul 24, 12:44pm 1720572266

Salam

by malamah | 10th Jul 24, 1:26pm 1720574765

I don't roll on Shabbos.

by wingman | 10th Jul 24, 4:34pm 1720586063

It's extremely odd behaviour to be posting religious quotes on this forum.

by bw | 10th Jul 24, 11:57am 1720569432

And as the population ages; The Baby Boomers die, the Natural Increase Rate is going to go into reverse. In 1964, with a much smaller population base, New Zealand had a Natural Population Increase (more births than Deaths) of ~40,000. 60 years on and that has dipped to ~19,000. I wonder if it's got anything to do with our young not being able to afford to have a family because of the cost of housing? Of course not....

by Crazy Horse | 10th Jul 24, 12:11pm 1720570288

The greed and "vested interest" in residential property since 2012 onwards has finally come home to roost, with these groups now way into the minority ......now time to get the infrastructure, health system, education etc into a much better place and not by population expansion (or cheap labour !)

Housing should and always be a place to live, learn, develop and grow, and not to be "monetised" for the financial benefit of a very small sector of the population.

by IT GUY | 10th Jul 24, 1:26pm 1720574769

“This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

by wingman | 10th Jul 24, 4:36pm 1720586178

I read your posts as..... "this is one of life's great opportunities in the property market".

by malamah | 10th Jul 24, 5:57pm 1720591079

will be*

Not yet.

by RookieInvestor | 10th Jul 24, 12:06pm 1720570004

The Population Ponzi

by powerupkiwi | 10th Jul 24, 12:10pm 1720570257

Can you elaborate? Seems a bit of a vapid statement .

by RookieInvestor | 10th Jul 24, 2:48pm 1720579700

well you basically required more young people than old to maintain a certain quality of life and growth, if people don't have enough children to support the elders or beneficiaries the we must import people or quality of life goes down.

and with medicine increasing life expectancy that reliance has only become greater.

by interesting1234 | 10th Jul 24, 3:56pm 1720583811

The fundamental systems are broken as they all rely on the expectation that humans will increase in number at an exponential rate. We need to focus on the prevention of hoarding of wealth as has been allowed in the last 40 years.

by kiwimm | 10th Jul 24, 1:52pm 1720576324

Actually a growth ponzi, with population as one of the legs, the others being credit and consumption

by WestieAJ | 10th Jul 24, 12:08pm 1720570123

Is there a 4th world we can tap for migrants ? Word is getting out in the 3rd world that the NZ ROI isn't worth it.

by legrandsoir | 10th Jul 24, 1:07pm 1720573650

Some African countries probably meet the definition of whatever 4th world is. Sierra Leone, Eritrea, etc

by Zwifter | 10th Jul 24, 3:47pm 1720583252

Sudan, Somalia, pretty much the whole continent to be honest.

by K.W. | 10th Jul 24, 4:54pm 1720587279

We can always take the illegal immigrants and fake asylum seekers that other countries are desperate to get rid. Wasnt that Jacinda Ardern's policy? We let them in and then they become Green Party MPs.

by BobbyKnuckles | 10th Jul 24, 12:18pm 1720570692

Found out the surgeon I was referred to was one of the 8255 to leave (moved to Perth for better pay and col). Oh happy day

by interesting1234 | 10th Jul 24, 4:00pm 1720584021

They get paid well here, and although not as well as in some countries, that will always be the case. With a globalised world, some just want to head to the next best place for everything until the magic stops then they hop off to the next place. I struggle to think that a surgeon in NZ could complain that they can't live comfortably, especially given the large profits they reaped from DHB's outsourcing to private to catch up after the great elective surgery halt of 2020, and many referring to their mates practices and their own scanning facilities to cream this as well.

by johnkerikeri | 10th Jul 24, 4:05pm 1720584343

Well don't worry he will be replaced by two ethnic chefs......

by K.W. | 10th Jul 24, 5:02pm 1720587743

We have bigger problems than pay. Heard about a newly arrived surgeon who had to relearn how to do surgery by hand. Reason - for the last 10 years they only operated using robotics. Then there are the oncologists who are quitting because they cannot treat their patients with life saving drugs considered to be the standard of care overseas, and have no choice but to watch patients die.

How long are doctors, specialists and surgeons going to last in NZ when they have no access to modern technology or drugs, and they fall further and further behind their overseas colleagues every year they remain here?

by CrispyKahawai | 10th Jul 24, 10:32pm 1720607578

Sensationalist garbage. If your surgeon anecdote were true (it's not), it would suggest that there is a country where all surgeries are performed robotically (there isn't). New Zealand still has an excellent health system compared with most places, with incredible surgical outcomes. The point about the 'life-saving drugs' is partly true, but there are very few countries who can afford to offer these to their patients anyway. We're not special, but we're certainly not struggling as badly as you're making out.

by legrandsoir | 11th Jul 24, 1:30pm 1720661446

Health spending is essentially a bottomless pit - technology and drugs advance relentlessly, and as a result so does the base level of care expected. On top of this, we also get better and better at diagnosing things which opens up even more avenues for expensive specialist treatment.

Even if the surgeon story had any truth to it, I imagine they would have known the situation before arriving through discussions with the hospital management and other surgeons. There might be some places that have extremely high use of robotics overseas, but probably only those which are either extremely rich or extremely specialised.. I know in the US for example there are clinics that do only hernias; day in day out the same procedures.

by False economies | 10th Jul 24, 12:23pm 1720571015

Is it possible to see where people have gone by country?

by False economies | 10th Jul 24, 2:29pm 1720578595

How come the numbers in the article dont seem to tally with the data on Stats nz? https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-migration-may-2024/

(Ah i see, it's in the monthly immigration section. Was looking at annual to may)

by Chris-M | 10th Jul 24, 12:24pm 1720571063

Young Kiwis are absolutely sensible getting out of here. Given impossibly high rent costs and the immigrant driven low wage economy, many have no hope of ever saving for a house deposit or owning their own home. Add to that an education system that is failing and geared to the lowest common denominator and a health system that, should you need it, is incapable of getting to help you before your condition turns terminal, it is very unwise and dangerous to remain here.

This is a country geared towards supporting the lazy and unproductive, Whether that is those who refuse to work or those who are only interested in financial manipulation and unproductive speculation. Successive governments over many decades have gone down this path and there is no reason to believe any of the hype that proclaims otherwise. Believe it when you see it.

We are destined to end up like a south American Banana republic.

by IT GUY | 10th Jul 24, 12:32pm 1720571553

Worth following this, pretty easy to read between the lines re what is happening here.

https://insidegovernment.co.nz/12-week-reprieve-for-manawatu-kindy/

Associate Education Minister, David Seymour has today confirmed Country Kindy in Manawatu will remain open, after being granted a 12-week stay from the Ministry of Education.

“When I heard of the decision made last week to shut down Country Kindy I was immediately concerned and asked officials to explain,” say Mr Seymour.

The Government is currently undergoing a sector review for the Early Childhood Education sector, to address major issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation.

“If we can make it easier for educators to focus on children’s safety and learning, and less on the paperwork, then it will be the children who benefit most,” said the Minister.

by Kaper2 | 10th Jul 24, 1:32pm 1720575150

Weren't meeting their quota of Te Reo?

by IT GUY | 10th Jul 24, 1:50pm 1720576218

yep, and teachers there probably need courses that cost thousands to do......

by Market Interest | 10th Jul 24, 2:01pm 1720576865

Early Childhood Education has to be the biggest misnomer of all time. Let's face it, it's glorified babysitting. You don't need a degree, you just need good character and common sense.

by K.W. | 10th Jul 24, 3:01pm 1720580480

The problem is that all these qualifications for babysitting toddlers are now mandatory, and then the workers demand pay parity with high school teachers. So the cost of childcare goes through the roof, and becomes the second largest household expense after rent/mortgage. In some cases, its even higher. Then we all wonder why people dont have more kids, or cant afford to buy other things. Childcare is now more expensive than sending your kids to private school.

by Matt73 | 10th Jul 24, 3:12pm 1720581126

No joke, I price checked my daughter's daycare and its cost comparable with Dio or St Cuths :(

by number8wired | 10th Jul 24, 3:58pm 1720583902

The owners of these daycare facilities are incredibly wealthy. Blaming costs purely on requiring qualifications for people looking after your most precious asset is tunnel vision.

Like most overpriced products it's due to a lack of competition and greed.

by K.W. | 10th Jul 24, 5:06pm 1720587985

Many of them are listed operators, so their books are public. And no, they are not incredibly wealthy. Many are actually going broke. Between lease costs, regulatory costs, staff costs, and health and safety requirements there is hardly any money left over for the owner of the businesses.

by The Person | 11th Jul 24, 7:46am 1720640768

"Charity BestStart $84m loans to rich-listers questioned"

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/charity-beststart-84m-loans-to-rich…

by lowercase capitalist | 10th Jul 24, 4:10pm 1720584623

I don't have kids so I don't know, are there not unlicensed childcare options employing non union labour?

by The Person | 11th Jul 24, 7:44am 1720640676

There are homecare based options. Up to 4 children cared for in someones home.

https://barnardosearlylearning.org.nz/what-we-offer/home-based/

by singautim | 10th Jul 24, 4:24pm 1720585479

Common sense is far rarer than degrees.

by interesting1234 | 10th Jul 24, 4:01pm 1720584109

How do you propose increasing productivity of workers when if you threaten to hold them to account, they can simply up and leave for other shores? Genuine question, no tone inferred :-)

by Chris-M | 10th Jul 24, 10:36pm 1720607800

Hold them to account? Yes, people do need to be accountable. But it is probably a wast of time if they are not invested and see hope in their employment. Do they have a future working for you that will lead to being able to buy a home and decent life. They need to believe that can learn, increase their skill to a point that gives them hope. If your business is in Auckland or a city where they have little hope of getting beyond the poverty trap, not much hope I am afraid. I would seriously consider shifting my business to a smaller more affordable town. Apart from staff having more hope, they will have less other employment options, so they may stay longer and see an achievable better future ahead of them. An example of this is Sleepy Head shifting its business out of Auckland into a town of it's own making. Looking around the world it is very notable that the most successful and enduring companies are born and stay in smaller cities. When they do get too big for their boots and shift to a big city and forget their roots, that is when the wheels fall off. Unfortunately the major causes of the lack of future and hope for our people lie well beyond your control, you can only try to make the best of the situation.

by The_Golem | 10th Jul 24, 12:25pm 1720571131

Maybe it's something to do with those who can leave discerning we have a problem with leadership that means our lives are getting worse.

There's what was a political "left" that's got a vision for the future that's hard to determine as it's mired in identity politics and there's no coherent plan to achieve what feel covert aims in a just manner, and a "right" that's so committed to a short-term historical status quo that there is no plan for the future.

And both are under the spell of monetarism that will not admit any other arguments.

by interesting1234 | 10th Jul 24, 4:03pm 1720584234

(duplicate post)

by interesting1234 | 10th Jul 24, 4:03pm 1720584217

Interesting take. Given the most common reason for leaving a job is having a poor direct manager, it could hold credence

by Averageman | 10th Jul 24, 12:28pm 1720571293

Educated future tax payers and immigrants all wising to the scam promise of "work hard get ahead" just being a mirage like carrot on a stick for landlords and bank profit. Add in job prospects in retreat, mass infrastructure deficit, mass retirement all demanding funding and larger share of tax, crime rampant that was all but supported by the loony left, why would you stay or migrate here?

The only reason would be because you couldn't get to Straya. But the last govt has made it easy to get there after a short stay here, so that group is leaving as well.

by james108 | 10th Jul 24, 12:29pm 1720571399

Will we have a shrinking population? I seem to recall net births was like 20k per year so pretty close. Could also be misremembering though.

by custard | 10th Jul 24, 12:48pm 1720572529

This calculation is probably in need of updating:

https://www.stats.govt.nz/tools/population-clock/

New Zealand's population is estimated to increase by one person every 3 minutes and 48 seconds.

This is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2023 and the following forecasts:

one birth every 9 minutes and 2 seconds
one death every 13 minutes and 10 seconds
one net migration 4 minutes and 22 seconds.

The forecasts are based on recent trends and do not necessarily reflect actual population change.

by Small Kev | 10th Jul 24, 12:32pm 1720571540

Number reported need to suit narrative for the coming rate cut.

by Three Veg | 10th Jul 24, 12:38pm 1720571911

Sad to say it, having been born here, NZ best days seem behind it with little prospect for improvement.

Whether there is anywhere to go that has a better future ahead is another matter...

by Frank. | 10th Jul 24, 12:48pm 1720572501

No, no it’s not NZ’s best days. Just Auckland’s and Wellington’s. Everywhere else in NZ is awesome.

by Three Veg | 10th Jul 24, 12:50pm 1720572600

thank you - i'd love to be convinced I'm wrong!

by Zwifter | 10th Jul 24, 12:54pm 1720572892

The whole world is in decline for the vast majority of people, we all need to start dropping our unrealistically high standards of living. Each generation has got worse than the last, sooner or later its going to hit a brick wall.

by Matt_B | 10th Jul 24, 12:39pm 1720571980

Increasingly New Zealand is still used as stepping stone to OZ

Overseas-born New Zealand citizens migrating to Australia

Since the early 2000s, people who were born outside New Zealand have made up a growing proportion of New Zealand citizens migrating to Australia.

Of New Zealand citizens who migrated to Australia in 2023, 36 percent were born outside New Zealand. This compares with an average of 33 percent in 2016–2019 (before COVID-19) and 22 percent in 2004–2011.

by K.W. | 10th Jul 24, 3:10pm 1720581027

This was the reason why Australia shut down the benefits for migrating Kiwis, people from other countries using NZ as a backdoor. But times have changed, and now Australia is letting all those people in the front door themselves, so no need to worry about the few who use NZ to get in. The Moving To Australia FB group has almost 40,000 members now, and one of the most common questions is about 461 visas (non NZ-citizen partner of a NZ citizen on an 444 visa). There is even a FB group for people moving from NZ to Australia on 461 visas with 4,600 members. It seems they arent even interested in sticking around NZ long enough for both to get citizenship, as soon as one has it, they are both off.

by James Thrace | 10th Jul 24, 3:07pm 1720580855

Unsurprising.

various facebook groups are full of foreign born asking how soon after getting their nz citizenship they can leave nz.

DIA need to really start doubling down on those who leave even though their citizenship declaration requires them to attest to “permanently residing in NZ following citizenship conferral”.

leaving a day after conferral certainly indicates an intent to the contrary. DIA have the power to revoke citizenship in such cases but they refuse to use it

by interesting1234 | 10th Jul 24, 4:07pm 1720584428

DIA need to really start doubling down on those who leave even though their citizenship declaration requires them to attest to “permanently residing in NZ following citizenship conferral”

I understand your line of thinking, however once the citizenship is granted and ceremony completed, they are a citizen, can get a passport and do as they please. This would be unenforcable as many get their citz and passport and book a holiday back to their home countries as they have stayed in NZ most of the last 5 years to ensure they can meet the criteria.

by James Thrace | 10th Jul 24, 4:27pm 1720585643

If they’re out of NZ for more than 183 days they clearly have no intention to reside permanently in NZ even having made a statutory declaration of doing so.

If NZ wasn’t such a soft kneed country, it would properly hold people to their false declarations and take appropriate action such as removing citizenship as it was clearly conferred under false pretences

by K.W. | 10th Jul 24, 5:11pm 1720588319

There is grounds to revoke citizenship if the person has perpetrated fraud to get it, and it is fraud to make a statutory declaration that you intend to permanently reside in NZ when you have already made plans to leave.

by James Thrace | 10th Jul 24, 8:13pm 1720599231

Exactly.

except the lily livered soft kneed morons at DIA don’t bother checking and enforcing.

hence why so many foreign born bugger off knowing they won’t suffer any repercussions.

by interesting1234 | 10th Jul 24, 9:41pm 1720604481

I used to work in DIA. With the admin involved, it wont happen. Personally I’d never go for citizenship in a country that forced me to stay there after becoming one, that is the freedom of movement a citizen has. Bare in mind that DIA has an employee in Samoa to verify documents for Samoan adoptions of children to NZ as they can automatically apply for citz once the adoption is legalised in NZ. There’s a reason they have someone over there…

by Averageman | 10th Jul 24, 4:57pm 1720587432

Simple. Start removing it after they sod off. Like crushing cars, it will only take a few to send the message.

by John Mendel | 10th Jul 24, 12:49pm 1720572542

NZ is the best place on earth, Middle East in a mess, Europe in a mess, US in a mess.

World War 3 is just a matter of time.

Of course not everything is perfect here but still one of the best places in my opinion

by Zwifter | 10th Jul 24, 12:59pm 1720573152

Agreed, NZ is still a great place when you compare it to just about everywhere else. Wake up everyday to rolling meadows and the Kaimai ranges in the distance, clean air, clean water on tap, electricity, life is good.

by redheadonist | 10th Jul 24, 1:30pm 1720575031

"clean air, clean water on tap, electricity"

*location and income dependant

by DTRH | 10th Jul 24, 1:30pm 1720575048

Yes I agree New Zealand is a great place to live.

by huttman | 10th Jul 24, 1:42pm 1720575754

just for fun I checked what my financials would be if I move to London. and apparently I'd pay 90% of my take home pay on rent if I live similar to what I live now.

We complain about some things in NZ, but I don't think I'll move else where.

by kiwimm | 10th Jul 24, 2:07pm 1720577234

Not really a like-for-like comparison though - what would you get in a similar sized city to Auckland - Manchester, Birmingham or Leeds for example, paid with a local salary.

by huttman | 10th Jul 24, 4:22pm 1720585377

true that not fair to compare NZ to London. but my point was, the quality of life will be worse for me if I moved there.

by agnostium | 10th Jul 24, 4:40pm 1720586402

Only one metric though. You would pay more in accommodation type but there would be other benefits that you're not capturing, like living in a real city close to Europe.

Look, I've lived in London and didn't think it was all that but I don't think you can just look at your accommodation type/style here and because it's cheaper here conclude your standard of living would be worse. I mean by that metric you could probably move to shit hole city in decline in the US and conclude it would be better quality of living. Location,location,location for a reason.

by tis i | 10th Jul 24, 1:58pm 1720576690

Yay for a bit of positive attitude. Geez there’s some miserable buggers around.

by RookieInvestor | 10th Jul 24, 2:56pm 1720580182

where is the optimism right? its not as people as people here make out.

My dad said he got fed only silverbeet for 2 weeks straight.

by Mystery | 10th Jul 24, 5:48pm 1720590520

It is actually true. Many Kiwis take NZ for granted, but It's one of the best countries in the world to be in.

Many of the problems NZ is experiencing are not exclusive to NZ but are also present in other "first world" countries.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 10th Jul 24, 1:17pm 1720574267

Immigration high = NZ bad. Immigration low = NZ bad.

by Simon | 10th Jul 24, 1:43pm 1720575809

Apparently a Raahui has been placed outside Andrew Kings house as a sign of respect.

by ozzzy2 | 10th Jul 24, 1:48pm 1720576080

"it will have major implications for the economy and infrastructure such as housing, transport, health and education, because it would likely mean we would have a shrinking population"

Implications or benefits? 🤔

I'm for the latter.

by 21Trillion | 10th Jul 24, 1:49pm 1720576165

So net departure of 60k kiwis in the last 12m, that's 5,000 a month. Let's assume average 4 people per dwelling, thats 1250 dwellings worth of people leaving monthly, or 41 per day. If we just didn't open the flood gates so heavily the "housing crisis" could fix itself.

Add 2 more to the departing with no intention of returning soon :-)

I have little pity to those that went head first into 5-15% deposits in 2021-2022 for their first home. It's leveraged risk and always has been, it's not a 100% certainty that NZ property and country in general may go backwards.

So tell me again, why we celebrate young people leveraging the next 30 years of their working life by a leverage of 5-20x into speculative assets?

by nktokyo | 10th Jul 24, 1:53pm 1720576436

The legacy of successive governments, but particularly the most recent one.

If you are intrepid, intelligent, or qualified, you are better off going where you will be valued rather than begrudged. Having lived overseas and now in NZ, I am looking forward to moving back in a few years and switching off idiots like the Green Party and TPM from my awareness permanently.

by Jesse1 | 10th Jul 24, 6:50pm 1720594218

I see it is that if you don't have assets then you are better off going elsewhere because NZ wages vs livings costs will get you no where.

If you have assets it makes sense to stay and benefit from one of the best welfare systems for those at the top that exists (a free pass on asset taxes and no asset tests on superannuation).

by Squishy | 10th Jul 24, 3:06pm 1720580800

High cost of living, expensive and low quality housing, low wages and an increasing unemployment rate.

...why do people hate New Zealand?

by Small Kev | 10th Jul 24, 3:10pm 1720581031

Many I know moved to Australia in hopes of finding better job and improving their lives. However, many of them ended up returning to New Zealand because things didn’t pan out as expected. Despite their efforts they often felt like outsiders, as Aussies consistently viewed them as “Kiwis.” The pull of family ties was also a significant factor in their decision to come back.

When they came back they faced even worse housing affordability in NZ. After spending a decade in Australia, they came back to find themselves without any property, essentially feeling like they had wasted those ten years.

Pretty harsh realities to face, even worse if they’ve got to move their children.

Kiwi moving to Australia is no different from Indian moving to NZ. You make it you make it, if you don’t be prepared to live second class.

Think twice before giving up your “spot” in NZ because things will be different again in another 10 years.

by rastus1 | 10th Jul 24, 3:54pm 1720583660

the number of kiwis now in Aus says otherwise.

by loveyourwork | 10th Jul 24, 4:14pm 1720584898

Yep. just turned 30 and moved to Melbourne 6 months ago. Degree qualified with a good job - salary now 30% higher than back home, also uncapped commissions on top. Lifestyle is great -lots of events, sports, food. Will probably move back to NZ later on however for now it's the right option, only regret not doing years earlier.

by Small Kev | 11th Jul 24, 1:52am 1720619543

Sounds like a lot of effort, one can achieve better $ wise, be able to travel and have a great lifestyle by staying in NZ. That 30% higher salary you have been chasing(money which is constantly devaluing…)

Do whatever makes you happy. You’ll probably see in 10 years time, all the best.

by Jesse1 | 11th Jul 24, 4:00am 1720627210

Sounds like you don't know what you're talking about. And travel? Flights are so much cheaper from Australia with many more options. I once bought a return flight from Sydney to Bali for $229. You'd never do that from NZ.

by Small Kev | 11th Jul 24, 10:10am 1720649404

This is the point. Cheapest flight should not be ones main motivation/concern.

by Jesse1 | 10th Jul 24, 10:57pm 1720609039

In 10 years the amount of extra savings you can come home with far outweighs what could have happened while living in NZ in my opinion. If you aren't able to save a lot more in Australia then you're doing something quite wrong.

by Small Kev | 11th Jul 24, 1:36am 1720618609

“In 10 years the amount of extra savings you can come home with far outweighs what could have happened while living in NZ in my opinion.”

Unfortunately this is the exact reason why many have failed and returned. The extra money is a big trap.

by Jesse1 | 11th Jul 24, 3:57am 1720627027

Well if they failed in Australia they would fail at least as bad in NZ. I don't know why you are being so negative. For me it was a life changer moving to Sydney and my savings rate tripled straight away in the same job. After 7 years of savings and investing I came back in a much better position than if I'd stayed in Wellington.

by interesting1234 | 10th Jul 24, 3:49pm 1720583362

Unfortunately while this will be good for job prospects with a lowering population, this will be bad for NZ's image as many return home from their visas, or back to their home countries, or abroad for better prospects, and spread the word about how average NZ is currently. Things will turn around eventually but considering tourism is a big export, it will be interesting to see what the tourist numbers look like this summer compared to previous years.

by agnostium | 10th Jul 24, 4:44pm 1720586655

I think the article missed a crucial point. All 17K incoming immigrants moved/are moving to Riverhead.

by wingman | 11th Jul 24, 4:04pm 1720670671

I doubt immigrants will be spending between 1 and 2 million to buy themselves a couple of acres in Riverhead, because that's what it costs.

And it's all sold out.

I have seen a new subdivision there, but it's off the plans...50% sold out.

by KH | 10th Jul 24, 6:37pm 1720593426

Why do we tolerate such crap stat data. And why is 16 months ok.

We should have last week's on Monday morning.

Why don't they know who the NZ Citizens are. It could be largely ( could be but we don't know) people who emigrated here, did the time and got citizenship. Then moved to OZ.

But we don't know.

by Jesse1 | 10th Jul 24, 6:43pm 1720593810

When we scan our passports thought the egate there should be a couple of buttons to press for what the purpose of travel is. It would take a few seconds and gather much better current data.

by It's all shits… | 11th Jul 24, 8:09am 1720642174

New Zealand's emigration trends raise concerns beyond population figures. The departing demographic plays a crucial role.

Are they young professionals seeking better opportunities?

Are they skilled tradespeople vital to our infrastructure? Understanding these nuances is essential.

Equally important is recognizing the globalized world's impact.

We can't simply view nations as corporations, NZ PLC,freely exchanging human capital.

A focus on attracting talent must be coupled with efforts to retain our own skilled citizens by fostering a supportive environment that encourages them to stay and contribute to New Zealand's future.

Obvious this Country/Corporation has become unattractive.

by The_Golem | 12th Jul 24, 8:52am 1720731153

If you'll take anecdata, I've had conversations with friends whose offspring are finishing their university stint and, outside Agriculture, the high achieving ones are all looking at leaving for Australia, the UK, the EU or North America. The kids with a talent for trades and other vocational training have gone or are in the process of upping stakes.

I know half a dozen isn't a statistically significant sample, and there's availability bias at play, but it's kind of daunting to have it happen right in front of you.

by The_Golem | 12th Jul 24, 8:45am 1720730717

Time for the apocryphal "last one out, please turn out the lights" sign from the early 1980's to actually go up at Auckland airport?

by wingman | 12th Jul 24, 3:38pm 1720755523

It was different in the 80's. NZ was run by Corporal Muldoon, interest rates were extortionate (around 23%) because he'd suppressed them for years pretending it wasn't happening, so it fell to Roger Douglas to clean up the mess.

In addition the marginal tax rate was 66% under Muldoon, downright theft. And there were death taxes, which were abolished in 1993. Gift duties were abolished in 2011.