ANZ's economists expect house prices to keep falling even as interest rates decline

Property / news

ANZ's economists expect house prices to keep falling and are cautious on how much the RBNZ will cut interest rates

27th Sep 24, 11:16am by Greg Ninness

ANZ's economists are picking that house prices will fall further over the coming months, even as mortgage interest rates continue to decline.

"Housing market momentum continued to weaken in August, with no sign as yet of a flurry of sales following the RBNZ's first OCR cut last month," they said in ANZ's latest Property Focus report.

"Sales volumes remained weak, while inventories on the market rose further, suggesting that house prices are likely to correct further over the coming months in order to clear the backlog," the report said.

However the report also acknowledged that the market remained volatile and could change momentum quickly.

"Anecdotal evidence has pointed to a pick up in activity over recent weeks, and Barfoot & Thompson's Auckland auction clearance rate has bounced, highlighting the risk that the housing market could be spurred back to life quickly as interest rates fall," it said.

However ANZ's economists remain cautious about how quickly interest rates will fall.

"Mortgage interest rates have continued to head lower over the month, driven by falls in wholesale rates as financial markets have ratcheted up bets that that the RBNZ will step up the pace of OCR cuts to 50bp moves," the report said.

"That's not what we're expecting, but it's worth remembering that faster cuts from the RBNZ would likely occur in response to the economy underperforming the RBNZ's already low expectations.

"In that scenario, lower interest rates may not be the boon for the housing market that many assume."

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154 Comments

by easymoney | 27th Sep 24, 11:31am 1727393462

That's right.. In theory RBNZ sole mandate is inflation.. (although I have been wrong before).

by Piggy | 27th Sep 24, 11:33am 1727393581

The same folk also predicted two rate hikes by now.

by Fleeced sheep | 27th Sep 24, 1:10pm 1727399446

The shortened version of this is "as economists, we have no idea what will happen to interest rates or house prices as evidenced by our previous announcements" nothing to see here...

by jimmyH | 29th Sep 24, 10:06am 1727557613

US Core inflationhttps://wolfstreet.com/2024/09/27/fed-favored-annual-core-pce-price-index-accelerates-to-2-7-highest-since-april-on-higher-core-services-inflation-3-8-durable-goods-drop-2-2-energy-plunges-10/ is re-accelerating,so maybe the Fed won't be on a supposed quick down track. Let's not be so hasty,RBNZ won't get too far ahead of the Fed,either

by ex agent | 27th Sep 24, 11:34am 1727393671

The ANZ must be getting this wrong. The experts on this site believe house prices are already reversing the trend of late.

by HughJorgan | 27th Sep 24, 11:35am 1727393700

House prices will keep falling until unemployment peaks. Too many redundancies coming through to support any upward movement.

by Retired-Poppy | 27th Sep 24, 11:43am 1727394196

Agreed. Job security is front and centre now. Falling house prices is good news - welcome news to those who matter - FHB's.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 12:41pm 1727397668

Everyone should listen to Retarded Poopy’s advice - he is a renter in his 50s with TDs as “investments”

Enough said.

by Retired-Poppy | 27th Sep 24, 1:02pm 1727398975

Folks, this is an example of a leveraged bag holding Spruiker.....

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 1:04pm 1727399068

Shut up mate, the position you’re in is probably because of the amount of time you spend adding your nonsense comments to this site. Ever stop to consider that?

by Retired-Poppy | 27th Sep 24, 1:06pm 1727399207

Keep it up Iceman - you'll surely be banned :)

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 2:25pm 1727403928

Personally abusive comment deleted. This is not the Real Housewives of Wherever. Keep it polite. -Ed

by rastus1 | 27th Sep 24, 1:31pm 1727400711

RP is on the money. Just be polite, it is not his opinion that is crashing the market, it will crash on it's own accord.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 1:05pm 1727399117

Also, leveraged and winning. The fact you said that tells everyone you know nothing about investing.

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 1:09pm 1727399388

Leveraged and winning in a crashing market that is about to get worse. Sounds like paradise.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 1:20pm 1727400047

@Averagejoe, that’s exactly what the average Joe thinks. But that’s not the case if you bought well etc.

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 1:29pm 1727400582

That's nice for you. Maybe you purchased in 2017 or before. But, look out, seems those prices are on their way back. So, maybe you have to exit the game before the music stops and you don't have a chair to sit on any more. Personally I don't care, I was never dumb enough to leverage myself with property during the fake market after covid. Many are going to lose everything over this, maybe you included. I'm with retired poppy on this one. People who continually promote property in crashing market are generally just soon to be bankrupt spruikers looking to offload to a greater fool. The only good thing about it is there will be a bunch of cheap(er) property around in 1-2 years if one wants a bach or something.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 1:41pm 1727401260

Are you expecting me to take yours or RPs advice?

Thats enough comedy for a Friday, I’m out

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 1:48pm 1727401680

I guess the bailiff just arrived to remove you from your property that the bank just sold from under you, after you had no takers. Oh well.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 1:53pm 1727401986

Ah yes, you lot are imaginative. Or just plain stupid based on what you type on here.

Not sure where you came up with that dream , but stay off the crack. Continue preaching your advice, you’ve got some real credentials behind it. The irony in your username though……

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 1:58pm 1727402308

As is yours. People that call themselves iceman are usually cool, calm and collected, of which none seem to apply here.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 2:19pm 1727403593

I sure am, but just need to expose the so called “experts” on here, who are renting in their 50s with Term deposits as investments.

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 2:23pm 1727403791

So...if I am not a leveraged Spruiker, then I don't own my home and I rent ? Your powers are amazing. Probably on par with your investment ability, which does not seem that crash hot.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 2:59pm 1727405960

You do realise that not every investor is a “leveraged spruiker” right? That’s extremely narrow minded.

I don’t think most people would take yours or RPs advice purely based on your position. Similar to having a personal trainer that looks anything like a personal trainer.

Some of you lot spend your lifetimes trying to time markets whilst never buying and calling everyone spruikers. That’s the main point here.

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 2:38pm 1727404684

Of course. Not all are, but it appears you might be. If I was to advise people, I would advise them to not invest in property at all (except the family home of course). I invest in share-markets, mostly overseas, and have done so for my whole life. The biggest investment gamble I ever took, was a) not selling anything during COVID, then once the markets were crashing I decided that COVID was not going to be the end of the world and b) dumped a heap of cash into the market at the bottom. Turned out to be a great move. I have no leverage at all, but I could buy half a house each year with the profits from my non-leveraged investments.. I think that's better than being a leveraged spruiker.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 2:43pm 1727405025

Fair play to you, it’s a safe approach and you’ve used your money to work for you.

I’d argue that most successful people have used leverage in some way or the other, but if you think they’re all wrong then 👏🏼

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 2:52pm 1727405560

See. We are both probably completely wrong about each other. Just having a Friday tiff.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 2:56pm 1727405762

To be fair, I was replying to Poopy - he’s just a waste of space on these forums. It’s more worrying the number of people that take people like his advice

by Retired-Poppy | 27th Sep 24, 3:06pm 1727406381

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 12:41pm

Enough said.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 1:41pm

Thats enough comedy for a Friday, I’m out

Yet you keep posting? Did you consider the space you've taken up?

by DingleDorf | 27th Sep 24, 3:59pm 1727409548

Iceman has made it quite clear based on previous posts that he's very overleveraged. He's been a member for 5 years, but only started posting in 2022 when the peak of 2021 passed, prices started falling and interest rates started biting. It explains why he snaps at other contributors when they say things he doesn't like to hear, because he's sweating ice cubes. If his investments were doing well, he would be off enjoying the fruits.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 4:54pm 1727412843

Dumbledorf, if you want to make wild assumptions then go ahead and embarrass yourself. For the record - my first place was bought just after GFC. The lengths you lot go to make yourselves feel better.

Keep crying and telling yourselves “this time it’s different”

by DingleDorf | 27th Sep 24, 5:11pm 1727413886

You bought a place after the GFC, and then equity debt stacked your way into the huge liability hanging around your neck today. Why else would you be so angry and thuggish towards a bunch of financial geeks on the internet?

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 5:39pm 1727415577

LOL. The embarrassment continues, I mostly bought do ups and increased value. You couldn’t be more wrong.

Not angry, just calling out what people should know about Poopy before they take his comments seriously. If you consider him a financial geek, then we all know what you are too. Just stop.

PS, You need to relax and stop embarrassing yourself mate. Enjoy your night.

by Amokk | 27th Sep 24, 6:13pm 1727417639

@iceman / wingman / theman3 - besides lining your own pockets, what’s the benefit to New Zealand as a whole from house prices soaring to ever more absurd levels

Genuine question.

by The Man3 | 27th Sep 24, 7:00pm 1727420433

The Man buys property and assists people that want to sell their property!

The fact that I always buy the property at what I consider under true market value, to make a profit is irrelevant.

I can honestly say when I buy I have never ever forced up house prices, quite the opposite.

I have aways found opportunities in every market and I can assure you that the residential market is still very sound in ChCh and plenty of people now seeing that it offers true value!

by sgtshortcut | 27th Sep 24, 7:43pm 1727423031

Short term…over the next few years if prices ramped up again at a steady incline on the back of cheap money then it would bring back the wealth effect & would get people spending again so retail & hospo would kick off again, it would bring construction back to life as folks see increasing capital gains & want to be the next Williams Corp etc so that industry & all the associated industries go gang busters again, banking is pumping, the economy would be roaring & a lot of kiwis would feel rich…that’s the benefit to NZ as a whole from house prices soaring.

Long term effect, it would continue the boom bust doom loop, & most likely with even more personal debt everything would be a lot worse at the next bust, our kids would most likely never own a home & the inequality gap widens even further…long term it’s really shithouse.

Short term however, wowee…it’s a quick fix & that’s why I think they will unfortunately slash rates, remove lending restrictions & NZ does this whole stupid thing again…although I don’t think we’ll see the 40% jump over such a short period again.

by Daveoftheworld | 28th Sep 24, 6:23am 1727461419

I was just thinking about this exact question, I'm a single owner-occupier with a couple of boarders, I have kids though so it would be nice if they could buy their own home one day. So long term house prices up or down is good or bad for me personally.

But, I'm currently investigating a couple of different small business options so the paper losses and high interest rates is making it a lot harder to finance the start up and therefore cutting the overall viability of business plans right from the get go.

by fortunr | 28th Sep 24, 10:54am 1727477695

When somebody has to resort to ad hominem attacks, she/he has already lost the argument before even starting it.

by Houses Overpriced | 27th Sep 24, 1:22pm 1727400167

Job security trumps every other emotion.. and that is rock bottom at the moment

by Daveoftheworld | 28th Sep 24, 6:14am 1727460888

It's almost like employment/unemployment is as important for the economy as inflation 🤔 if only someone made that part of the RBNZ mandate they would have considered how aggressively they pursued a recession 🤔🤔🤔

Ahh, one has to live the circus sometimes

by Harvey W | 27th Sep 24, 11:35am 1727393719

Is this the ANZ that predicted two OCR hikes a few months ago? Credibility a little tarnished perhaps?

by Retired-Poppy | 27th Sep 24, 11:37am 1727393829

Credibility a little tarnished perhaps?

Especially with this forecast - aye?

by Zwifter | 27th Sep 24, 11:54am 1727394891

I think their predictions have been 100% correct, you just take the complete opposite of what they say.

by Iceman | 27th Sep 24, 1:24pm 1727400251

He’s a total muppet mate, wasted energy trying to him.

by safeashouses | 27th Sep 24, 2:49pm 1727405357

Great comment Zwifter

by agnostium | 27th Sep 24, 3:38pm 1727408291

Looks like the spruikers got triggered ...

by bw | 27th Sep 24, 11:45am 1727394334

Is there a right time to bring in a universal Capital Gains Tax on any secondary property(s) or remove Negative Gearing? Probably politically not. But as Antonia Watson suggests, one day someone(s) will have the courage to do one or both. And if there is ever a good time to do that, it's when prices are falling and the impact is minimal or zero (as there is no CGT on a property when prices are falling and NG diminishes likewise)

Now. Where are those courageous politicians who could link this in with the necessary taxation changes that are outlines in the other article on here today that tell us - we have to do something, as what we are currently doing is unsustainable given our demographic outlook.

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 12:07pm 1727395641

How would you propose to tax something that is falling in value ?

by 2Noodles | 27th Sep 24, 12:10pm 1727395803

A capital gains tax would apply to many things, not just property. For example: shares. I am not saying it is a bad idea, just it affects many asset classes.

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 12:23pm 1727396584

I guess you can discuss the theory all you like. CGT isn't happening. National have ruled it out, and they will be here for 3-4 terms. The version of CGT that Labour proposes is at the marginal tax rate, so you would be paying 33-39% on CGT, so that will never ever fly. Until someone starts proposing a CGT of between 10-15% which excludes family home etc, nothing will ever happen.

by DitchSkipper | 27th Sep 24, 12:31pm 1727397094

You can see 9-12 years into the future, but haven't picked the winning lotto numbers yet.....interesting....

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 12:44pm 1727397849

It's not rocket science.

i) Current government has ruled it out.

ii) Governments generally go in cycles in NZ, 3 terms is the norm, except if you are hopeless like the last Labour govt and Covid saved them from being a one term govt.

iii) National generally last three terms, Labour don't usually but have once or twice.

Is there something I missed, except knowing the lotto numbers ?

by mfd | 27th Sep 24, 1:09pm 1727399384

A few large assumptions there. First, that the Nats +/- hangers on can rule for a few terms. Second, that their leadership and policies remain the same throughout.

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 1:33pm 1727400824

One thing I do know for sure. Labour are unelectable for the foreseeable future, and have no coalition partners that are even barely acceptable. So, whilst this situation continues, National and their partners win by default. Competing with Labour right now is the equivalent of playing a game of football against a team with 9 players and no goalie, and the players that are playing have a strange habit of kicking the ball into their own goal.

by mfd | 27th Sep 24, 1:42pm 1727401344

I think the real lesson to be learned from watching politics is to be humble when making predictions and to recognise that things can change, fast.

Perhaps you remember the massive swing in Labour's favour when Ardern took over as leader, just as an example? Couple of nasty scandals, some in-fighting within or between the coalition parties, economic damage...plenty of possible causes for the population to swing.

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 1:45pm 1727401536

Yes, I agree. But, at the moment Labour are in a warriors like position. Making a lot of noise, and making promises, but totally hopeless and out of touch. They will come back, but they don't have the people right now to do it. Labour is made up of a lot of different factions, and moving them forward is a lot more difficult than it is for the Nats and so it takes a lot more time. hence three terms minimum.

by the Joneses | 27th Sep 24, 4:33pm 1727411597

In the last week the current government are publicly arguing with each other about Israel policy and it has been revealed that they cannot agree on the ferry replacement, even though it is a festering embarrassment they would all love to draw a line under. I am not sure they are all that united.

by DitchSkipper | 27th Sep 24, 1:47pm 1727401627

Labour won the 2020 election with a landslide victory, so the exact points you're making right now could've been applied to National after the 2020 election. Things can change very quickly in politics, just as they do in life. Predicting election results a decade out is naive at best.

by Nzdan | 27th Sep 24, 3:27pm 1727407634

Just the usual partisan hyperbole. National themselves are looking almost as incompetent as Labour at the moment and averagejoe is feeling insecure about it.

So he resorts to emotionally charged exaggerations to try further undermine Labour's incompetence and lazily wedge a slight point of difference between the two parties. Easy to do when National were voted in, and Labour voted out.

by agnostium | 27th Sep 24, 3:40pm 1727408456

Labour were also unelectable in the UK until they got elected. It appears the coalition are using an accelerated playbook from the UK Tories so maybe we'll get to that point quite soon.

by ACB | 27th Sep 24, 2:00pm 1727402415

Negative gearing was removed some years ago, without any fuss unlike in Australia, wasn't it?

by TronMVP | 27th Sep 24, 3:07pm 1727406458

Negative gearing is pretty stupid, in my humble opinion. Why lose $50,000 per year so you can claim $16,500 in tax (overall loss of $33,500) ?

by Nzdan | 27th Sep 24, 3:32pm 1727407941

Because most property investors that partake in negatively geared investments are either cash poor, or don't have the means to reach their ambitions without a huge early hit to the cashflow. They're primarily releasing equity and borrowing the rest, and being negatively geared today is gambling that over time they'll reach a positive cashflow position, or be able to sell for huge tax free capital gains.

Since losses are carried forward, by the time they extinguish those losses in profit making years they're usually ready to sell.

by mfd | 27th Sep 24, 3:36pm 1727408205

If you have some debt, better to stack it against the cashflow of the rental than have it against your own property where you can't claim it.

by Nzdan | 27th Sep 24, 3:38pm 1727408293

You can still negatively gear your investment, it's just that your losses are ringfenced so you can no longer offset the losses against your personal income for a tax refund.

Someone might still want to have a negatively geared rental property because it's the only way they can realistically obtain the asset, by topping up the holding costs from their own pockets in the short term.

by WellingtonInvestor | 28th Sep 24, 12:56am 1727441800

I heard that if someone purchased a house in NZ and then goes to Oz to live and work, they have to pay capital gains tax on the house they own in NZ, is this right?. That would go to the Australian government. So it looks like we aren't collecting capital gains tax on NZ houses, but Australia are. That just seems so wrong. But I would support CGT more if tax was being well spent, and covered the services and infrastructure we need. But NZ seems to be moving to a user pays and targeted rates system, which would mean paying less tax.

by Daveoftheworld | 28th Sep 24, 6:42am 1727462525

Kind of. If you become an Australian TAX resident then their rules apply, including regarding assets owned in NZ, so in a way, yes, if you own a house in NZ and move to Australia you might have to pay a CGT in line with AUS tax law.

(Not an expert just opinion 😇)

by K.W. | 28th Sep 24, 10:37am 1727476622

Not usually. NZ citizens are on a temporary visa so they are considered temporary tax residents, and as such CGT on overseas assets is not payable. For those that become permanent residents or citizens, then the 6 year CGT exemption will apply - which is where you can rent out your ex-family home for up to 6 years or until you buy a new family home, without the property attracting CGT. (Which is why most FHB buy a property, get the FHB grants and stamp duty exemption, live in it for 6 months, then move out and rent it out for 6 years. Then they can sell it and buy their own home).

by Mystery | 29th Sep 24, 12:43am 1727527399

I think introducing a Capital Gains Tax in this bear market environment might have the opposite effect and actually result in government collecting LESS tax, depending on how far property prices will fall, since much of the Capital "GAINS" might be claimed as a Capital LOSS instead.

by wingman | 27th Sep 24, 11:51am 1727394690

They might fall in some areas, but not all. It's a 'prediction', remember.

Depends where new development is.

Economists were invented to make weather forecasters and astrologers look good.

by Toye | 27th Sep 24, 12:02pm 1727395325

Bishop has said he wants to see house prices fall.

Luxon sold one of his houses.

Migration net 0

Unemployment going up

Economy failling apart

And now even the economists are turning.

Tough time to be a spruiker.

by April Spruiker | 27th Sep 24, 12:16pm 1727396199

I don’t believe Bishop for one second. His government have proven to be comfortable misleading and manipulating the public at every turn. Bishop has increasing rental supply as his main focus. So in other words, more investors. Investors don’t like falling markets, and neither does this government.

by JimboJones | 27th Sep 24, 12:23pm 1727396608

I thought this would be the bottom for housing, but I wasn't aware at that time that migration had dried up. Starting to change my mind now.

by Daveoftheworld | 28th Sep 24, 6:45am 1727462715

This article of 13 September suggests net migration is 67k (up) (link below)

It is young NZers leaving in large numbers but net migration remains in the positive numbers.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/indonz/527923/asian-migrants-leading-new-zea…

by agnostium | 27th Sep 24, 3:44pm 1727408649

You missed rents falling

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-landlords-drop-plans-to-r…

by Toye | 27th Sep 24, 4:31pm 1727411486

Thats right. Sorry I felt bad adding more.

by Cote d'Azur | 27th Sep 24, 12:03pm 1727395406

ANZ have no credibility after their recent track record of silly predictions.

Auckland central already up 2% last month, Wellington also up. Cities leading the upturn.

QTown is different, like the French Riviera, always high international demand.

by Toye | 27th Sep 24, 12:05pm 1727395529

Yes, we do realise you guys only think they are credible when they say prices are moon-bound.

by Zwifter | 27th Sep 24, 12:09pm 1727395764

Rates need to drop another couple of percent before we are moon bound but the RBNZ wouldn't be stupid enough to do this again would they ?

by Independent_Observer | 27th Sep 24, 12:16pm 1727396185

House prices are still outside the stratosphere compared to the average household incomes of FHBs.

No need for prices to go moon bound in a future tense when you are already there.

by kiwikidsnz | 27th Sep 24, 12:23pm 1727396611

🤣🤣🤣

by NZGecko | 27th Sep 24, 2:58pm 1727405897

No Shist Sherlock ANZ.....the crash is only 1/2 done.

2015 to 2018 home prices are coming soon- DONT OVERPAY!

But but but......Tonay Alexspriukerzander promised everyone a good 10% gains this 2024 year.....can his disciples get their money back? King of the swamp - Winger, can apply to the FMA, for winding old TA up?

Looks dead cert for ITG -10% or larger.....

by tomjones_04 | 27th Sep 24, 12:57pm 1727398655

King of the swamp! Classic 😅

by Zwifter | 27th Sep 24, 1:04pm 1727399064

🤡

by Retired-Poppy | 27th Sep 24, 1:14pm 1727399665

"Sales volumes remained weak, while inventories on the market rose further, suggesting that house prices are likely to correct further over the coming months in order to clear the backlog

Spruikers are welcome to provide counter facts.

by wingman | 27th Sep 24, 2:21pm 1727403700

Buy when there's blood in the streets.

That's what the Rothschilds did.

by NZGecko | 27th Sep 24, 2:42pm 1727404958

Aoooh ok. Bloody in the swamp then?? Bleeding owners aye?

Toyota add: BLOODY SWAMP!

by agnostium | 27th Sep 24, 3:47pm 1727408820

Didn't you buy ages ago? Prices are still falling. I thought you were the master of timing.

by Nzdan | 27th Sep 24, 3:56pm 1727409391

The dates will vary depending on which part of the anthology he's reading from.

by wingman | 27th Sep 24, 4:50pm 1727412655

I bought bare land in August last year and got a massive discount. $315,000 below CV.

Nice. That's how you make money, the buy price is what counts.

by Nzdan | 27th Sep 24, 5:06pm 1727413563

You previously said it was May last year. Now it's August.

by wingman | 27th Sep 24, 5:15pm 1727414134

Whatever....I can't be bothered digging the documentation out of my folders. It's of no consequence.

Do you store this kind of information on posters? That's a bit weird.

I can obtain the exact date if you like. For your future reference.

by Nzdan | 27th Sep 24, 5:33pm 1727415196

Nope, details about your "property purchase" bloat the interest.co articles on a daily basis. I just recall you mentioned May last year was when you purchased, but as you say of no consequence. Just when people are spinning a tale, the hardest part is sticking to the timelines.

Maybe you could create some posters in PDF format. Everyone can print them off, laminate them and hang them next to the EAP posters in workplace toilets?

by wingman | 27th Sep 24, 5:46pm 1727415971

Stalking others is a very strange occupation.

by Nzdan | 27th Sep 24, 5:58pm 1727416729

You can relax, nobody is stalking you. Maybe if you spend a little less time spamming the comments section with your property updates, the perception of exposure will subside and you won't have to deal with feelings of paranoia and vulnerability when people engage you on here.

by Retired-Poppy | 27th Sep 24, 6:28pm 1727418499

Wingman, what discount below CV did you actually get? was it $300K, $315K, $325K or nada?

by wingman | 23rd Mar 24, 11:27am - “I got a $300k discount. Nice”

by wingman | 14th Sep 24, 5:03pm - I bought my property in Riverhead for $325,000 less than CV.

by wingman | 27th Sep 24, 4:50pm - I bought bare land in August last year and got a massive discount. $315,000 below CV.

Spot the problem? The truth is much easier to remember.

by Zwifter | 27th Sep 24, 6:29pm 1727418581

We do spot the problem, however I spot another and the level of stalking on here is actually quite disturbing. I hope like hell certain people never find out who I am because I would be genuinely worried. I have to vet everything I post on here in case a bit of obsessive detective work narrows down the results to the point my full name gets published on here.

by Retired-Poppy | 27th Sep 24, 7:06pm 1727420799

Zwifter, your sensationalizing aside, all that's been exposed here is Spruiker bullsh-t for what it is, not the person. You'd have to be paranoid to think otherwise. This is an anonymous yet public forum, common sense applies - yes?

by HouseMouse | 27th Sep 24, 7:31pm 1727422295

Karma

He riles people up, intentionally, with his tiresome bragging

it’s just trolling, really

by wingman | 27th Sep 24, 6:42pm 1727419355

You're doing a bit of stalking too Poopy?

Purchased for $1.225m, CV $1.540m....

I don't dig out my paperwork every time I post, the difference is minuscule - except to stalkers.

Would you like the exact purchase date?

by Nzdan | 27th Sep 24, 6:47pm 1727419679

Fair point, would be a fairly tedious task if you had to dig out the paperwork every time you posted about it. A quicker way would be to just have it on a second computer screen for quick access.

by Retired-Poppy | 27th Sep 24, 6:50pm 1727419855

Nice smoke screen "stalking" LOL!. It's understandable that you're triggered. It's all pretty unbelievable.

by General Comment | 27th Sep 24, 7:02pm 1727420576

11 May 2023.

by Zwifter | 28th Sep 24, 11:03am 1727478193

Well that's enough info for someone to track you down. Hope the purchase is in a trust or you have filed to omit the owners details and make it confidential on the council website.

by Yvil | 28th Sep 24, 9:50pm 1727517023

"Stalking others is a very strange occupation"

Well, people who don't have a life of their own, like to live vicariously through others.

by Independent_Observer | 27th Sep 24, 2:01pm 1727402478

This has been my consistent view for the past few years - that house prices may well continue to fall with interest rate drops - as a reflection of just how bad the economy has become.

This happened in the US during the GFC when I was living there - recession hit, interest rates were dropping but not many people were in a position to take on debt to flatten out the housing market (or increase debt levels to cause it to rise).

Once unemployment peaks and interest rates have stopped falling, then in my opinion we may see the market flatten out and start rising again - but that could be a few years away. Not a forecast…just an opinion based upon my experience in the Us when their housing debt bubble popped (which ours appears to be doing right now).

Other people’s experience says house prices always go up as soon as rates fall - time will tell (and I will be ready to admit I was wrong if this happens).

by sgtshortcut | 27th Sep 24, 2:43pm 1727404989

Agreed, just like inflation still going up while the rates were hiking…not surprising to see house prices continue fall as rates go down…I think in 12-18 months things could look very different. In the same vein that I think those who expect prices to jump on one cut are naive, I also think those that think prices are still going to collapse a lot more from here are as naive as well.

Only time will tell, my guess, another six months of small declines, 6-12 months plateau then I would think we see some increases…hopefully DTI/LVR used well to control any stupid leaps up eh

by Greeneggsandham | 27th Sep 24, 6:33pm 1727418787

I agree with your analysis. People are caught in their recency bias from emergency Covid interest rates LSAP/FFL and think this cycle of cuts down will respond the same way. It’s possible it has a more lagged response which align more with past recessions. Calling the floor/bottom will just be a continuous narrative driven by media but not supported until the data actually backs it up.

by estateagent | 27th Sep 24, 2:00pm 1727402410

Barfoots auctions 37.6% success rate this week is still rather low given the latest interest rate reductions

by DitchSkipper | 27th Sep 24, 2:16pm 1727403409

We're smack bang in the middle of peak buying season. This is as good as it gets. 3 months until Christmas, plenty of time to get moved in before Santa comes. Auction clearance rates low. Sales inventory climbing. Interest rates moving very slightly down, with the expectation for the rates to settle around 5%. Migration low, and possibly more skilled people moving to Australia as work dries up in NZ. What's going to drive house prices up from here? Demand is low and potentially will get lower with unemployment increasing.

by immigrant_ | 27th Sep 24, 2:57pm 1727405831

Last week alone I've heard of 3 people from work who are leaving to OZ and my neighbor. All of them are immigrants who got their nz citizenship and got offered a much higher base salary there (not to mention the 11% super). My neighbor mentioned the estimate rent price he expects to pay in Perth is lower than what he pays here for a better house.

Even I am considering now haha

by Pat.T | 27th Sep 24, 4:21pm 1727410887

I have just returned from Melbourne, spoke to a guy in a bar and he is paying $400 a week for a 1 bed studio in the CBD

by HouseMouse | 27th Sep 24, 5:48pm 1727416108

Cheaper in Aus than here? That’s fake news according to Pa1nter and JimboJobes!!!

by JimboJones | 28th Sep 24, 3:31pm 1727494300

It’s a bit fake. Some things are dearer there, and it depends where you live. As I showed a loaf of bread costs 100% more there than here. Of course they earn a lot more.

I certainly wasn’t arguing that you’d be better off in NZ.

by wingman | 27th Sep 24, 4:55pm 1727412945

If you're planning on going to Melbourne, immigrant, you better have a shtload of money handy.

My daughter lives there and still couldn't buy a house anywhere near the city despite having a A$300,000 deposit. So she lives about one hour out.

by immigrant_ | 27th Sep 24, 4:54pm 1727412881

I'd probably end up in Brisbane, I think it would be relatively easy to find a job in my area and it's not as busy as Sydney and Melbourne (so I've heard). I know a couple of people there and they're enjoying it. Not sure what the housing situation is like in there though. It's a long term plan too, wife is still a couple of years away from citizenship and we're still not settled on the idea of moving countries again and raising kids in OZ. We'll see, hopefully by then we'll have our financial life in a less fluctuating state after she's done with being in and out of maternity leave

by wingman | 27th Sep 24, 4:58pm 1727413098

Brisbane is VERY expensive.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/hey-big-spender-ho…

by immigrant_ | 27th Sep 24, 5:08pm 1727413682

Thanks for sharing. Didn't know the 2032 Olympics will be in Brisbane, lots of places in the $1mi range according to the article and with no signs of easing on the price increase.

by HouseMouse | 27th Sep 24, 7:32pm 1727422377

Similar to Auckland

And better pay, cheaper fuel, more super etc

by JimboJones | 28th Sep 24, 3:39pm 1727494770

But with massive demand , surely house prices will go to the stratosphere. A good place for investors I imagine.

by K.W. | 28th Sep 24, 10:29am 1727476169

Try the Gold Coast. I can trade in my NZ home for a 4 bed, 3 bath house right on the waterfront with a marina berth for the boat.

https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-hope+island-145573496

by ex agent | 28th Sep 24, 12:14pm 1727482447

Why didn’t you help her out. You keep going on about rich you are. You are all talk .

by Mystery | 29th Sep 24, 12:40am 1727527214

House prices in Melbourne are pretty much the same as in Auckland with a median house price being very roughly around 950k NZD in both cities. But in Melbourne you'd have to throw over 50k in Stamp Duty taxes for the privilege of purchasing that median house, while in Auckland you can put that 50k+ towards your house deposit instead of giving it away to the government.

Here is a link to calculate Stamp Duty tax in Melbourne if you want to enlighten yourself about the SD tax that you have to pay there when buying a property

https://www.e-business.sro.vic.gov.au/calculators/land-transfer-duty

by wingman | 27th Sep 24, 2:51pm 1727405470

The Ray White auction clearance rate is 48.8%.

"We have liftoff."

by mfd | 27th Sep 24, 2:57pm 1727405859

When the markets were pumping a few years ago, clearance rates were frequently in the 80s and 90%s.

by Zachary Smith | 28th Sep 24, 2:02pm 1727488973

Very rarely.

by 26@Main | 27th Sep 24, 3:31pm 1727407877

Do we? The latest Ray White clearance rate is 44% (183 auctions) for week ending 24 September. Down 14.61% year on year.

Clearance rate of 48.8% (128 auctions) was for week ending 17 September

by safeashouses | 27th Sep 24, 3:57pm 1727409473

@26 pain it is still up 10% from two weeks ago -

by Toye | 27th Sep 24, 4:37pm 1727411870

Watch this guys - you can pinpoint the second Wingman's heart rips in half....

https://youtu.be/7bPbhCWtZmM?t=34

andddddd now!

by rastus1 | 27th Sep 24, 3:37pm 1727408238

Roger that Space Shuttle Challenger. ... talk again in ..73 seconds

by endlesslearner | 27th Sep 24, 3:22pm 1727407334

When you get an email at work about needing to find 8-figure savings for FY2025/2026, right after a year of heavy cuts, it’s not exactly the time folks are thinking about rushing to buy houses. Who's next? That’s the question on everyone’s mind. Most are probably tightening their belts, just in case. In a balance sheet recession, where assets are dropping but debts stay high or even climb, the priority for most shifts to sorting out personal finances, not house hunting. In a debt-based economy, when interest rates (OCR) outpace growth (GDP), we are essentially watching the economy being strangled slowly while debt explodes. Looks like the next 12 to 24 months could be a grim repeat of unemployment spikes, demand crashes, and more liquidations.

by bw | 27th Sep 24, 4:01pm 1727409688

We've been strangling our Real Economy for quite some time. And the culprit? Our fixation with, and reliance upon, the Financial Economy. And unless we change that, the inevitable will happen. i.e. "The real sector is sensitive to the effect liquidity has on asset prices like, for example, if the market is saturated and asset prices collapse"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_economy

by Rampart | 27th Sep 24, 3:24pm 1727407467

Unrelated to the article - Hurricane Helene is officially a Cat 4 and the first ever cat 4 to land into the big bend of Florida. Massive damage

by Zwifter | 27th Sep 24, 4:53pm 1727412794

Not as much potential damage as the one hitting the whole of the USA on November 5th.

by averagejoe | 27th Sep 24, 7:32pm 1727422361

You mean Hurricane Trump I assume? I’m picking his victory speech this time will be a lot better than the disorganised shambles of last time when he looked like he was shocked he actually did win.

by the Joneses | 27th Sep 24, 8:00pm 1727424052

Has he ever made a speech that was not a disorganized shambles? Something something sharks or electrocution?

by WellingtonInvestor | 28th Sep 24, 12:58am 1727441925

If 50% of them say house prices will fall and 50% say they will rise, then some of them will be right. But IMO they shouldn't be allowed to make these predictions. You don't hear the same thing when it comes to other investments. NZ is too obsessed with house prices still. NZ has had a house price crash, but few are willing to admit it.

by NZGecko | 28th Sep 24, 7:41am 1727466091

Yes without question, we have had the biggest house prices crash since the 1970s.

The pain and squeling of the spruikers here and on the other property sruikuvester pages is palpable.

Many leveraged are hanging on by their cracked fingernails and know their financial end is nigh, all by gambling big on already excessive priced NZ housing, when they leveraged up and said to the Ponzi, give me "one more spin"

Banks, Lawyers, Real Estate agents just love the Ponzi punters, these Vampires clip the tickets on the entry......and don't care, when the punters go belly up.

IT IS A TOTAL PONZI, AND THE LAST ENTRANTS BEEÑ HAD!

Current leveraged, gambling bagholders, are done for.

Home owners and households with diversified investments will be fine......helped especially, if they keep their day jobs.

by agnostium | 28th Sep 24, 3:31pm 1727494269

Yes without question, we have had the biggest house prices crash since the 1970s.

Sorry to pick you up on this Gecko but we haven't "had" the crash we are still crashing.

by NZGecko | 28th Sep 24, 3:59pm 1727495951

We have crashed by the biggest % drop already, since the 1970s.

Fully agree, we are only partway down this pipe, of lower value discovery.

by The Man3 | 28th Sep 24, 8:48pm 1727513322

Gecko, maybe where you are living, they probably have crashed!

I can assure you many areas are still selling for what they were 2 years ago!

by wingman | 29th Sep 24, 10:40am 1727559641

One of life's great opportunities.

Do ya homework...cant miss!

by JimboJones | 28th Sep 24, 3:24pm 1727493840

Please don’t call me a spruiker - but if you did buy a stand alone house, could you really lose while everything else is being converted to terraces? It’s happening everywhere now, an 800m2 section in centralish Auckland is becoming unheard of.

by Zwifter | 28th Sep 24, 6:18pm 1727504333

Correct decent builds in decent areas have simply not fallen. If you bought a 3 or 4 bed stand alone house up until late 2020, then you are still ahead. My place is up $100K since late 2020, there has been no crash.

by IT GUY | 29th Sep 24, 9:46am 1727556418

Villa’s in Ponsonby down , pretty gd area

by Zwifter | 29th Sep 24, 1:25pm 1727569555

Did I mention "Decent" builds ?

by wingman | 29th Sep 24, 3:14pm 1727576040

Villa's in Ponsonby are down?

Hardly surprising. Those old villas can hide some very unpleasant surprises. I used to work on some of them in the late '60's.

by jimmyH | 29th Sep 24, 4:01pm 1727578888

What was rotting 60 years ago,haa gotten worse since. I was working on three properties recently( Remuera , Newmarket,Mt Eden) all 1900's vintage, wooden villas, all actually had bits rotting and falling off them. Rot everywhere.

by wingman | 29th Sep 24, 4:53pm 1727581981

A few people have gone bust trying to restore villas.

I worked on a few in Herne Bay, Grafton and Parnell. In those days, those areas were very working class, a lot of poverty and crime.

Stinking kitchens, uneven floors, scrim on the walls.

by Zwifter | 29th Sep 24, 7:20pm 1727590844

Yeah just love that scrim not to mention the walls that are no where near vertical, try like 3 or 4 inches out. They have less wood in the roof than you would put in a kids tree house, absolute shockers.........lets not talk about the wiring LOL. The best thing you can do with these is pull the wooden floors and set light to the rest and rebuild to modern standards keeping it looking like a Villa.

by agnostium | 29th Sep 24, 1:35pm 1727570108

My place is up $100K since late 2020, there has been no crash.

🤣🤣🤣🤣 How do you know? Have you just sold? Or are you basing it on Homes?

by Yvil | 28th Sep 24, 9:33pm 1727515987

Auction article saying spring uplift arrived early: 40 comments

ANZ article saying house prices expected to drop: 140 comments

It's pretty clear where the bias of the majority lies.

by immigrant_ | 28th Sep 24, 9:47pm 1727516851

To be fair, I think the row between Retired Poppy and Iceman is what got people going 😅

by IT GUY | 29th Sep 24, 8:05am 1727550341

Well that knocked the sprinklers off their foils