Tentative signs that the residential building slump may be bottoming out

New dwelling completions in Auckland flatlined in March and April suggesting the building slump may have hit the bottom

Property / news

New dwelling completions in Auckland flatlined in March and April suggesting the building slump may have hit the bottom

4th Jul 25, 9:49am by Greg Ninness

The number of new homes completed in Auckland in April was practically unchanged from March, possibly signalling that the recent slump in residential construction may be bottoming out.

Auckland Council issued 1256 Code Compliance Certificates (CCCs) for new dwellings in April, almost unchanged from the 1255 it issued in March.

That was still well down from the peak of more than 1900 new dwellings a month that were being completed in Auckland in late 2023.

The number of completions has been on a steady downward track ever since (see graph below) reflecting a general contraction in residential construction.

CCCs are issued when a building is completed and so are the best indicator of actual new housing supply, while building consents are a forward looking indicator of future building activity.

Recent building consent figures have also suggested that the residential building slump may be bottoming out, although monthly figures can be volatile so it's probably a little early to break out the Champagne just yet.

However the latest figures certainly give some hope that the worst of the residential building slump may be behind us.

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7 Comments

by ex socialist | 4th Jul 25, 10:01am 1751580079

What is significant is that the building consents remain above the 201*'s market. That Auckland is still building houses where there is a surplus, so house prices will stay in their current range for a while.

by Keynes | 4th Jul 25, 2:12pm 1751595178

Stop. Rewind. Play. Repeat for 2 years on loop. The government smashed the construction sector to slow down housing supply and protect exposed home owners and banks from a fall in house prices.

Increasing housing supply in NZ is a major risk to our financial system - 80% of loans in NZ are against property.

The loss of over 12,000 jobs and closure of 900 business in the building sector within the last year is a brutal economic blessing in disguise. Thank you National. Getting NZ back on track.

by Keynes | 4th Jul 25, 2:11pm 1751595110

"National backs Tradies" - all the way to Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney.

by Keynes | 4th Jul 25, 2:20pm 1751595639

"National backs Tradies" - green light all the way to their first WINZ meeting. Orange light warning there's a Red light ahead on getting another Job.

by The_Golem | 5th Jul 25, 11:43am 1751672614

Given how desperately we need replacement modern housing stock for the glorified wooden tents we've lived in for generations, any level of continuing renewal or development has got to be welcome.

I also wonder if it's also that some are waiting to see what happens to both the market and the RMA that might simplify development and reduce costs.

by Keynes | 5th Jul 25, 12:56pm 1751676988

No - in order to maintain inflated prices it is critical that supply is constrained and slowed down as as much as possible. The government have been very successful at that. NZ banks are seriously exposed to falls in house prices.

by The_Golem | 6th Jul 25, 3:00pm 1751770838

A drop in cost of production would give a rise in margin at any given selling price and provide an incentive. And renewal as opposed to new as that doesn't grow the pool, but the quality rises.