New Zealand housing values are treading water, according to property data company Cotality.
The Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) for May shows the national median dwelling value was $808,187 in May, almost unchanged from April, and down 0.1% over the last three months.
The median value was also down 0.6% compared to April last year and 17% below its peak in early 2022.
Around the main centres, values declined in Auckland and Wellington in May but increased in Hamilton, Tauranga, Christchurch and Dunedin, although none of the movements was big. See the HVI table below for the full value changes across all districts.
Cotality NZ Chief Property economist Kelvin Davidson said May's flat result was a continuation of the sluggish market seen so far in 2026, with no clear directional change in sight.
"Property values are generally stuck in neutral at the national level, with buyers in no major rush, but sellers not having to capitulate either," Davidson said.
"There are differing patterns beneath the surface," he said.
"Key areas, including Auckland and Wellington are still subdued, while even 'strong' markets such as Christchurch or Invercargill aren't racing away. Interest rates have already lifted in recent months and there's likely to be more to come the longer the Iran conflict continues.
"At the same time, consumer and business confidence has been hit hard and there are other signs of economic weakness coming through, such as falls in consumer spending," Davidson said.
"It all adds up to significant headwinds for sales activity and property values in coming months."
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| Cotality NZ Home Value Index | ||||
| May 2026 | ||||
| Median value | 1 month change | 3 month change | 12 month change | |
| All of Aotearoa | $808,187 | -0.01% | -0.14% | -0.64% |
| Northland Region | $712,463 | 0.11% | 0.08% | -1.45% |
| Far North District | $673,656 | 0.21% | 0.66% | -2.32% |
| Whangarei District | $714,981 | -0.10% | -0.75% | -1.28% |
| Kaipara District | $817,732 | 0.60% | 1.62% | -0.56% |
| Auckland Region | $1,046,164 | -0.16% | -0.49% | -2.61% |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,213,529 | 0.19% | 0.42% | -0.96% |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,283,437 | -0.20% | -0.74% | -0.39% |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $910,416 | -0.27% | -0.46% | -2.08% |
| Auckland - Central | $1,114,879 | -0.17% | -0.79% | -4.14% |
| Auckland - Manukau | $964,836 | -0.23% | -0.18% | -2.72% |
| Auckland - Papakura | $804,839 | -0.32% | -0.61% | -2.91% |
| Auckland - Franklin | $925,552 | 0.03% | -0.41% | -2.69% |
| Waikato Region | $778,077 | -0.04% | 0.31% | -0.17% |
| Thames-Coromandel District | $984,266 | 0.86% | 2.18% | 1.37% |
| Hauraki District | $633,718 | -0.34% | 0.57% | 0.49% |
| Waikato District | $944,531 | -0.92% | -0.51% | 0.51% |
| Matamata-Piako District | $717,272 | -0.35% | -0.89% | 0.14% |
| Hamilton City | $726,936 | 0.12% | 0.22% | -1.39% |
| Waipa District | $910,497 | 0.29% | 0.27% | -0.91% |
| Otorohanga District | $635,433 | -0.08% | -0.37% | -1.57% |
| South Waikato District | $432,526 | -0.24% | 0.98% | 2.89% |
| Bay of Plenty Region | $845,369 | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.95% |
| Waitomo District | $451,279 | -0.29% | 0.16% | 5.34% |
| Taupo District | $809,248 | -0.34% | -0.17% | -0.07% |
| Western Bay of Plenty District | $1,041,556 | 0.21% | 0.44% | 0.90% |
| Tauranga City | $935,685 | 0.22% | -0.08% | 1.73% |
| Rotorua District | $648,493 | 0.64% | 0.45% | 0.49% |
| Whakatane District | $693,759 | -0.35% | -0.69% | -2.42% |
| Kawerau District | $425,139 | -0.41% | -0.03% | -0.13% |
| Opotiki District | $588,692 | -0.46% | -0.55% | -1.39% |
| Gisborne Region | $622,768 | 0.21% | 0.91% | 4.27% |
| Gisborne District | $622,768 | 0.21% | 0.91% | 4.27% |
| Wairoa District | $379,869 | -0.65% | -3.93% | -2.10% |
| Hawke's Bay Region | $670,709 | -0.19% | -1.96% | -2.31% |
| Hastings District | $692,110 | -0.42% | -2.56% | -3.25% |
| Napier City | $696,067 | 0.06% | -1.21% | -1.59% |
| Central Hawke's Bay District | $576,777 | 0.08% | -1.18% | -0.75% |
| Taranaki Region | $634,760 | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.89% |
| New Plymouth District | $696,387 | -0.02% | -0.15% | -1.14% |
| Stratford District | $533,313 | 0.33% | 0.17% | 0.92% |
| South Taranaki District | $458,160 | 0.10% | 0.17% | -0.47% |
| Manawatu-Whanganui Region | $545,719 | 0.13% | -0.61% | -0.61% |
| Ruapehu District | $382,545 | -0.32% | -1.57% | -2.60% |
| Whanganui District | $506,755 | 0.78% | -0.67% | 0.65% |
| Rangitikei District | $439,476 | 0.69% | 0.26% | 2.41% |
| Manawatu District | $631,617 | 0.19% | 0.61% | -2.70% |
| Palmerston North City | $606,124 | 0.07% | -0.27% | 1.22% |
| Tararua District | $429,823 | -0.54% | 0.53% | -3.53% |
| Horowhenua District | $509,710 | -0.49% | -2.77% | -3.80% |
| Wellington Region | $773,899 | -0.22% | -0.41% | -1.25% |
| Kapiti Coast District | $819,808 | 0.67% | 1.01% | -1.71% |
| Porirua City | $763,455 | 0.22% | -0.35% | -2.13% |
| Upper Hutt City | $715,294 | 0.32% | 0.36% | -0.65% |
| Lower Hutt City | $668,450 | -0.11% | -0.88% | -4.03% |
| Wellington City | $871,120 | -0.59% | -0.72% | 0.15% |
| Masterton District | $564,103 | -0.88% | -1.09% | -2.22% |
| Carterton District | $655,923 | 0.65% | 0.12% | -1.57% |
| South Wairarapa District | $782,928 | 0.83% | 0.36% | 2.10% |
| Tasman Nelson Marlborough | $746,209 | 0.18% | -0.29% | -1.23% |
| Tasman District | $854,829 | 0.26% | -0.17% | -0.28% |
| Nelson City | $716,765 | 0.14% | -0.52% | -1.57% |
| Marlborough District | $647,901 | 0.10% | -0.23% | -2.06% |
| Kaikoura District | $800,927 | -0.02% | -0.63% | 0.66% |
| West Coast Region | $453,439 | 0.33% | 0.28% | 4.88% |
| Buller District | $398,891 | 0.51% | -0.20% | 1.28% |
| Grey District | $463,827 | 0.01% | -0.31% | 6.90% |
| Westland District | $516,778 | 0.63% | 1.43% | 5.48% |
| Canterbury Region | $719,128 | 0.31% | 0.88% | 3.01% |
| Hurunui District | $691,664 | 0.53% | 0.94% | 1.82% |
| Waimakariri District | $779,026 | 0.19% | 0.41% | 4.06% |
| Christchurch City | $702,359 | 0.44% | 1.40% | 3.16% |
| Selwyn District | $886,751 | -0.03% | -0.23% | 2.73% |
| Ashburton District | $585,475 | 0.51% | 0.46% | 4.48% |
| Timaru District | $528,847 | -0.19% | -0.54% | 0.54% |
| Mackenzie District | $733,435 | 0.48% | 1.03% | 1.98% |
| Waimate District | $509,100 | 0.00% | -0.51% | 1.57% |
| Otago Region | $738,870 | 0.24% | 0.24% | 3.78% |
| Waitaki District | $490,111 | 0.86% | 0.06% | -1.69% |
| Central Otago District | $940,188 | 0.33% | 1.59% | 4.19% |
| Queenstown-Lakes District | $1,757,937 | 0.18% | -0.38% | 5.07% |
| Dunedin City | $629,469 | 0.22% | 0.81% | 2.74% |
| Clutha District | $436,876 | 0.21% | -0.57% | 4.11% |
| Southland Region | $535,642 | 0.55% | 2.04% | 8.36% |
| Southland District | $615,731 | 1.15% | 3.24% | 11.55% |
| Gore District | $481,466 | 0.14% | 1.59% | 3.86% |
| Invercargill City | $523,472 | 0.32% | 1.51% | 7.58% |
12 Comments
The property holding pattern, is akin to the holding calmness of large trip dams, the pioneers used to hold the large felled logs, in thick NZ forests, to eventually transport them downstream, in a massive manmade flood event.
The swollen property dam, full of old, dilapidated stock and new crappy development units, with the occasional gem thrown in, is set to be tripped and flood down the increasingly economically challenged NZ inc, gully.
Real Residential Property Prices for New Zealand (QNZR628BIS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
The charts show this staggering property calmness, yet ebbing lower, wherever you care to look, after the steep precipitous fall, post 2021.
Its next step is about to break to the downside bigtime imho, as in the common crash slope scenario. The Gecko sees this pathway as highly probably.
We are in the Bull trap/Return to normal TRAP phase.
Bear Market: Characteristics, Examples - Bear Market vs Bull Market
All you can do from here is get out of its way, hold cash/liquid positions and be the first to sell leveraged property positions. Be snappy about it!
What is the trip mechanism, for the largest swollen property dam, bult in many, many years??
1. Lingering and worsening general economic conditions in almost all industries.
2. Quickly increasing holding costs across the property associated spectrum.
3. Interest rates TO INCREASE MARKEDLY!
ITS HARDHATS, get to dry hard ground, then duck and cover time!
While some DGMers know the real score here, many are lambs baaaring in the slaughterman's line, glibly unaware of the coming sword.
Ye economic plebs and property HODLers be warned!
Yes...the cost of holding debt is on the rise. As is. Council rates. All the while rents are falling, inflation has become stagflation and there is no immigration flood on the horizon to bailout the over leveraged.
More cost, less income, more risk.... you don't need a PhD to do the basic math here.
It is really useful to highlight the graph of real property prices as a reminder that the correction is not over. It highlights that the 'double every ten years' school were making comparisons with house price rises when inflation was very high. And the growth in the anomaly of unaffordable housing is really a product of post 2000, and two decades when we thought printing money forever was viable.
The Reserve Bank analysis put 2006 as the last time housing supply and demand were in balance. I think the decline to those levels it is a further 30% decline in real levels, which could equate with a further 5-10 years of limited growth while inflation runs at 4-6%.pa.
Yes I agree, I think another 5-10 years of this stagnant environment. I think rents will be as well as I notice rentals up 100% in my suburb recently as homeowners/developers cannot sell so rent out.
It’s also worth highlighting that the current rate of inflation does not fairly represent current price levels
CPI measures the annual percentage changes, but does not account for cumulative cost increases since 2021. This is the structural inflationary pain we’re experiencing.
The CPI number is also softened by discretionary items being flat or dropping (retail is dead), while non-discretionary costs (which can’t be avoided) are rising much faster:
- Electricity +12.5%
- Local Rates +8.8% (with double digit hikes locked into current council plans)
- Meat & poultry +8.6%
- Pharmaceuticals +17.7%
Plus the fairly clean fresh water in the Auck supercity......up 7.2% next month again and same scullerious amount, every year after!!
NZGecko,
I have long wanted to see house prices revert to a significantly lower median price to income ratio, but I would prefer that to be a gradual process as has been happening recently. I follow the Demographia annual housing affordability study and at the peak of the madness, the NZ ratio was over 11, with Auckland being one of the most expensive cities in the world. Now the ratio is below 8 and it needs to get to at least 5, so still a long way to go.
I want my grandchildren to be able to live here and buy property without having to depend on help from the family, just as most of us did. My first mortgage in 1969 was the maximum of 3 times my salary with no account taken of my wife's income and it was the same for all my friends.
Agree fully with the future of 3 to 5x DTI as reasonable.
It should be done and complete within 10 years.
To hell with the lost proposition of the property gambling class!!
AFR: The politics of house prices: damned if you do, damned if you don’t
If home affordability was the central aim of Labor’s budget changes, then property prices have to fall. But the government can’t quite get the words out.
Since the budget was handed down, house price falls in Sydney and Melbourne have accelerated while national auction clearance rates fell below 50 per cent last weekend, for the first time since COVID took hold in 2020. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley predicts house prices could fall as much as 10 per cent, which would be the largest correction in 40 years.
For those trying to buy, this is good news. No so much for those wanting to sell, or those with huge mortgages who risk being left with negative equity, such as the thousands who have taken advantage of the government’s 5 per cent home deposit scheme.
10%, Yeah Right
Is that a picture of "proflies" waterfront property?
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