NZ house values rose in June, driven largely by 2% rise in Auckland house values since January. Your experience?

NZ house values rose in June, driven largely by 2% rise in Auckland house values since January. Your experience?

By Bernard Hickey

Government-owned valuer Quotable Value (QV) has reported a rise in nationwide house values in June, driven largely by a rise in the Auckland market.

Values had increased in Auckland by around 2% since January, QV said.

“Nationwide property values increased in June after previously remaining relatively stable for several months. The gap in values between June this year and last year has closed to only -0.9 percent, and values are now 5.2 percent below the market peak of late 2007,” said QV.co.nz Research Director, Jonno Ingerson.

Values across the wider Auckland area were now 1.4% above last year and only 1% below the previous market peak of late 2007.

"There is variability across the Supercity with the Manukau area being more or less stable over the past three months, while North Shore and Waitakere have increased modestly. In what used to be called Auckland City increases since January mean that values are now at their highest level ever, currently sitting 0.7 percent above the previous market peak of late 2007,” said Ingerson.

QV cited a lack of quality properties for sale, strong demand for established character homes in good school zones and perceptions that purchasing in central Auckland was a safe investment.

Values in Hamilton and Tauranga had levelled off with Hamilton down 3.6% on last year and Tauranga 1.8% down.

Public sector cuts

Wellington area was the only main centre where values were falling with values down more than 1% since January and 3.3% down from a year ago.

"Uncertainty around restructuring in the Public Sector may be causing some home owners to take a more conservative approach to the property market," Ingerson said.

QV said sales volumes in Christchurch were patchy and it had decided not to publish and index for the city until it could get more valid results.

“The recent CERA announcements of red and green zones helps give some certainty to some people in Christchurch, enabling them to evaluate their options and make property decisions. This will likely to lead to a further increase in demand for vacant sections and houses in the undamaged parts of Christchurch and surrounding areas” said Ingerson.

“Properties in undamaged parts of Christchurch tend to be selling for around their pre- earthquake values, with little sign that prices are either significantly up or down,” he said.

Dunedin values had been flat since the New Year and remained down 3.5% from a year ago.

The average New Zealand sales price over the last three months was NZ$412,746, up from the NZ$404,057 reported last month.

Values in many provincial centres have increased over the last month, leading to a closing of the gap between this year and last year.

Whangarei (-4.1%), Gisborne (-3.1%), New Plymouth (-3.3%), Wanganui (-4.0%), Palmerston North (-2.8%) and Invercargill remain the furthest below last year. In Napier (-2.1%) and Hastings (-1.4%) values are still a little below last year, while in Rotorua (-0.2%), Nelson (-0.2%) and Queenstown Lakes (0.1%) values remain similar.

See QV's regional details below:

Auckland

QV’s Residential Price Index for June shows that property values in the Auckland region are 1.4% higher than the same time last year. Values have continued to increase, a trend we have seen over the past couple of months.

Ms Glenda Whitehead of QV Valuation said “the news in Auckland is positive. There were improvements in values for most parts of the region, but the recovery has been slow and not evenly spread.” Ms Whitehead said “old Auckland City values had the biggest monthly movement, moving past the October 2007 market peak. It is now sitting just under a percentage point above that level. The gains in the Auckland City area are perhaps due to the lack of listings, old character locations, the demand for a good school zone, and the perception it is a safe place to invest”.

Ms Whitehead said North Shore is likely to be the next area to reach previous peak levels followed by Manukau and then Waitakere, but that may be months away yet. There has been very little market movement in these three areas for the last year to 18 months, after a prior period of recovery.”

“On the Shore there are reports of a shortage in listings, especially in the $450,000 to $600,000 price range. Anything within that price range tends to fetch a ‘healthy’ price, especially those recently renovated. This excludes monolithic homes which buyers are sceptical of due to weather-tightness issues” Ms Whitehead said.

“Our valuers have noted good interest for properties that present positive returns in the traditional investor suburbs of Manukau, however investors remain cautious. Values overall remain reasonably stable, with slight increases being achieved on well presented properties. There are no indications that demand levels are increasing” Ms Whitehead said.

“In the south east, demand for properties appears to be exceeding supply. Buyers are being selective so when good quality listings are placed on the market they are generally sold within a short time period (if owner’s expectations are realistic). On the whole value levels appear stable, however some surprisingly good sales prices are being achieved for well presented properties in good locations”

Ms Whitehead said. Ms Whitehead said “within Waitakere, there has been an increase in demand over the past couple of weeks, and now quite a few sold signs are up. Agents report strong demand, but still a shortage of listings in most suburbs. Some properties in Te Atatu Peninsula have received great prices. Titirangi, New Lynn and Greenbay are also performing well. A few more developers are braving the market, and undertaking small site developments now as well. Overall prices have recovered back to a similar level to a year ago.”

Ms Whitehead said “we are now well into winter, so we don’t expect great volumes of either listings or sales in the next month or three. This is the usual trend for this time of year.” QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the three months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates in line with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets. The average sales price for the Auckland region in June was $540,580.

Hamilton

QV’s Residential Price Index for June shows that property values in Hamilton are 3.6% lower than the same time last year. In the past few months values appear have continued to steady.

Mr. Richard Allen of QV Valuations said: “Values in Hamilton City have moved in a very narrow band over the last six months. Strong evidence the residential market in the city has completely levelled off.”

“The property growth for each of the regions within Hamilton City is variable. South West Central, City/North West and North Hamilton decreased. Whereas South East Hamilton increased” Mr. Allen said.

Mr. Allen said “although city values have remained stable there is some anecdotal evidence to suggest that things may be picking up a little.” QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the 3 months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates in line with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets. The average sales price for Hamilton in June was $339,065.

Tauranga

QV’s Residential Price Index for June shows that property values in Tauranga are 1.8% lower than the same time last year. The steady trend for values seen in the past few months has continued.

Mr. Shayne Donovan-Grammer of QV Valuations said; “the Tauranga property market continues to be subdued with a general lack of interest. This, to some degree, is to be expected for this time of year, winter has never been the peak selling season.”

“Section sales are slow and a few of the sales in this category have come through at lower than expected levels. Buyers are getting some good deals, mostly in situations where sellers who need to sell have to compromise more on the price than they initially expected” Mr. Donovan-Grammer said.

Mr. Donovan-Grammer said “overall the market is following a predictable pattern given what has played out over the last two years.” QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the 3 months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates in line with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets. The average sales price for Tauranga in June was $415,418.

Wellington

QV’s Residential Price Index for June shows that property values in the Wellington region are 3.3% lower than the same time last year. Values continue to trend downwards.

Mr Kerry Buckeridge of QV Valuations said “the Wellington market has continued to be quite subdued overall.”

“Over the last couple of months we have seen low activity levels and values continue to trend downwards. There is a seasonal influence, in winter we typically do see less properties listed and less sales activity” Mr Buckeridge said.

Mr Buckeridge said “the only area of the market that there appears to be some activity is properties in lower priced locations. This is only if they are sensibly priced. Agents are reporting that sellers are being realistic in their price expectations. Few are anticipating receiving premium prices in the current market.”

“At this stage we are not seeing evidence for a substantive continuing decline in values; however, as yet there are no signs of a recovery. With current prices, and historically low interest rates, housing is the most affordable it has been for many years, yet people are not rushing into the market” Mr Buckeridge said.

Mr Buckeridge said “it is possible that uncertainty in the public sector has resulted in a more conservative approach from home owners. Many appear not to be trading up. Meanwhile, some first home buyers are entering the market in locations with more affordable options such as Upper Hutt and Porirua.”

QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the 3 months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates in line with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets. The average sales price for Wellington in June was $449,871.

Christchurch

The significant slowdown in the number of sales, and the delays in the overall sales process in Christchurch following the February 22nd earthquake mean that the QV residential price index cannot yet be used to measure the change in property values.

Mrs. Melanie Swallow of QV Valuations said “the Christchurch market has remained fairly static over the past month.”

“We continue to see the trends of the previous month, with interest in the main Selwyn and Waimakariri townships and Christchurch’s North and Western suburbs. There also remains some interest for relatively undamaged property in more affected areas. Agents report a very small lift in enquiries for undamaged property in the eastern suburbs, which is encouraging” Mrs. Swallow said.

Mrs. Swallow said “the recent CERA announcements identifying red and green zone areas provides some certainty for people. It means they can now evaluate their options and start to make property decisions. As a result, we do expect to see some interim pressure on the undamaged affordable properties and vacant sections. We anticipate this will be a gradual process that will gain momentum over time.”

“Overall the big picture and full effect of the earthquake will take time to filter through into quantifiable data. We expect the market to continue in a similar vein to the previous month with a slight increase in activity in the entry level to mid part of the market” Mrs. Swallow said.

Dunedin

QV’s Residential Price Index for June shows that property values in Dunedin are 3.5% lower than the same time last year. Values continue to fluctuate in a narrow band.

Mr. Tim Gibson of QV Valuations said: “there has been minimal change in values in 2011 after values declined during late 2010. Value levels are now 7% below the market peak in July 2007.”

“A recent example demonstrating this market movement is a property in the Wakari suburb. A tidy weatherboard bungalow was bought in 2008 for $240,000 and it sold for $227,000 in June, reflecting a 5.4% decrease in value. Higher valued quality properties have performed slightly better with a smaller degree of change” Mr. Gibson said.

Mr. Gibson said “active parties within the residential market continue to remain cautious in their decision making. This has resulted in longer listing time frames and more conditions on offers made during negotiations.”

“Demand exists for dwellings in sought after localities that are well presented. We have seen this result in shorter selling timeframes and a desired sale price achieved. Properties that lack even one attribute that potential buyers are after have seen a longer selling period and greater discounts applied to achieve an agreed sale price” Mr. Gibson said.

QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the 3 months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates in line with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets. The average sales price for Dunedin in June was $276,084.  

(Updated with more national detail, regional detail, interactive chart below)

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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116 Comments

Sold my family home in Three Kings AKL in the end of 2008 after convinced the house price would drop 20-30%. I have to pay 10% more to buy it back now.

I will I can buy it back in same price I sold in 2 years time as the price will start decreasing from this winter.

Gloom , dont worry , the GFC is far from over , and the only things stimulating the housing market is 1) Dr Bollards idiotic interest rates which have destroyed savers finanacially , and 2) the Chch earthquake because its apparent  that some folk are moving the AKL .

This market is more tenuous than most realise 

Gloom, did Bernard convince you?He convince quite a lot of people. He was on Breakfast TV quite a lot back then ;)

Gloom, look around.  May not be in three kings, there are bargains out there.  I wouldn't wait in 2 years time as who know what will happen.

"Sold my family home in Three Kings AKL in the end of 2008 after convinced the house price would drop 20-30%."

Now did the gloomers say the property market was going to drop or did they say it is overvalued arouind 20% and expect a drop?

2 very different things.

The property market funimentauls are still over valued around 15 to 18%..but that doesnt mean the market is going to drop...and it isnt...it is zig zagging along rather stable and will do so until the long term fundimentauls catch up.

Its very easy to blame everyone else for one not doing ones homework in the 1st place....Stop reading the headlines and take close note of the content and wording.

Imagine if you'd had to pay CGT also - you'd sell your house and instantly be unable to buy another house of the same value as what you had without a bigger mortgage.

I wonder if there has been a surge in the inflow of overseas investment into the Auckland property market.

If that is the reason for this increase then it is high time that the govt consider restricting non-resident foreign ownership of our housing stock. 

Overall migration stats shows neutral or negative but in Auckland there could be a net postive gain.  However, the government cannot set policies on foreign ownership for one city.

In Remuera where I live the average QV property value is 1.03 million.  I notice a lot of immigrants are fighting for the houses in this area...it is not because of double grammar zone factor anymore but to show off to friends and family they own a mansion in a well-established inner-city suburb.  Does that make you sick?

Nope. It is their money and their choice and good on them if they can afford it.

Immigration and tax breaks for investment in residential property are being cited as the underlying causes of steep increases in the cost of housing over the past decade.

The report added that there was little evidence that immigration boosted local incomes. In fact, the need to build roads and schools meant that net migration contributed to the national deficit.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4622459/Government-policies-blamed-for-h...

.........

Many people have observed that American politics and the American economy reached some kind of turning point around 1980, which conveniently marks the election of Ronald Reagan. Some also pointed to other factors such as the deregulation of stock brokerage commissions in 1975 and the high inflation of the 1970s. Other analysts have put the turning point back in 1968, when Richard Nixon became President on the back of a wave of white, middle-class resentment against the 1960s. Hacker and Pierson, however, point the finger at the 1970s. As they describe in Chapter 4, the Nixon presidency saw the high-water market of the regulatory state; the demise of traditional liberalism occurred during the Carter administration, despite Democratic control of Washington, when highly organized business interests were able to torpedo the Democratic agenda and begin the era of cutting taxes for the rich that apparently has not yet ended today.

Why then? Not, as popular commentary would have it, because public opinion shifted. Hacker and Pierson cite studies showing that public opinion on issues such as inequality has not shifted over the past thirty years; most people still think society is too unequal and that taxes should be used to reduce inequality. What has shifted is that Congressmen are now much more receptive to the opinions of the rich, and there is actually a negative correlation between their positions and the preferences of their poor constituents (p. 111). Citing Martin Gilens, they write, "When well-off people strongly supported a policy change, it had almost three times the chance of becoming law as when they strongly opposed it. When median-income people strongly supported a policy change, it had hardly any greater chance of becoming law than when they strongly opposed it" (p. 112). In other words, it isn't public opinion, or the median voter, that matters; it's what the rich want.

That shift occurred in the 1970s because businesses and the super-rich began a process of political organization in the early 1970s that enabled them to pool their wealth and contacts to achieve dominant political influence (described in Chapter 5). To take one of the many statistics they provide, the number of companies with registered lobbyists in Washington grew from 175 in 1971 to nearly 2,500 in 1982 (p. 118). Money pouring into lobbying firms, political campaigns, and ideological think tanks created the organizational muscle that gave the Republicans a formidable institutional advantage by the 1980s. The Democrats have only reduced that advantage in the past two decades by becoming more like Republicans-more business-friendly, more anti-tax, and more dependent on money from the super-rich. And that dependency has severely limited both their ability and their desire to fight back on behalf of the middle class (let alone the poor), which has few defenders in Washington.

http://www.amazon.com/Winner-Take-All-Politics-Washington-Richer-Turned/...

All the property investors are buying in Remuera, Epsom areas.

Not all that surprised with trends in Wellington and Auckland.

Question is how long the steam would  be on in Auckland - NZ$ is quite high now and migrants are low.

Will be interesting to see volumes too. Good homes are selling like hot cakes, unfortunately most of them aren't, they're crappy ex-rentals that nobody wants. At this rate the increase in some Auckland suburbs might even get close to the inflation rate.

Auckland is still a bleak market for first hime buyers though. The house you can afford is still half as nice as your neighbours in the state house next to you.

Good houses are selling.  I have been tracking house sales in Onehunga and Otahuhu, contrasting suburbs that are not far from each other.  Onehunga are selling like hot cakes, Otahuhu not so much.  What you pay for one house in Onehunga you can get investment properties.

Amazing that some people still talk about the housing markets like nothing can stop them. Just keep living the dream dudes, nothing can possibly go wrong. If you can pay outright cash then you will have overpaid at worst but will still own a house , if that's important to you. If you have a mortgage then you have overpaid , don't own a house & when interest rates hit high figures, you might find the picture very different .

Dude, I haven't been talking it up or down.  Like most JAFAs we have a passing observations of house prices where we live, where our parents live, where our friends live etc...

HW I hear you bro. I'm from auckland but have spent a decade away living & working abroad. When I have been home all I hear is talk abut housing it is so asinine I can't believe it. If people dont start to broaden the focus very soon, I think the housing market will be the last thing to talk about , unless of course you are a bank debt slave, this is the problem.

@first home buyer - are you going to continue to wait?

Yeah don't wait man, because if you do you will be renting FOREVER lol

Yeah now is the time to buy...Herne Bay, St Marys Bay, Parnell, Remuera, Epsom, Mission Bay...plenty of good bargains, don't wait till it's too late =)

Or you will never be able to buy them. Ever. Seriously, gear yourself up to your eyeballs, pay back a ridicluous amount of interest over a 25 year period so that by the time you have paid your whole loan you have paid 2.5 times what the house was worth in the first place. And if house prices don't go up, even better! Because then you will be underwater and for all intents and purposes bankrupt!

a friend of mine, who went through the Great Depression told me that you should never borrow money that you can't pay back.

but if you can afford it? is it better than paying rent? I know I am alot happier and it has worked for us (so far) We got our first house 6 months ago, 2.5 times household income. Already paid off 10%. Hopefully got a decent bonus coming this year. Should have it paid off in a few years. No dramas, Happy Families. Just because we earn good money doesn't mean we have to live in Kandallah!

MK, the price is still too high and it will move down soon. Why buy now?

Because the price is too high for you - the price will come down.

It's so simple - or perhaps you are?

No, keep waiting - didn't Bernard promised a 40% "crash"? (Or was it 20% - can't remember, it was too long ago...)

I'm pretty sure that Bernard picked a 30% drop. Since then national average house prices have dropped 15% in real terms but the recent upswing in Auckland may have decreased that a little. Still 15% to go, I read it in the Economist :-)

More, BH didnt allow for peak oil, so a conservative estimate is 50% with the highest Ive seen as 90%. We are in for a credit driven bubble burst, when that happens there is no credit, so the house is worth what ppl can pay in cash.....rather frightening.

regards

 

"Values across the wider Auckland area were now 1.4% above last year and only 1% below the previous market peak of late 2007"

The above statement tells me that on the average, a home in Auckland that was purchased for $400,000 in Nov 2007 would have sold for about the same price now. So after owning the home for more than 3.5 years, you could sell it and may just about break even – no capital gain nor loss, and all of the cash you originally invested would be returned to you.

But the dollars returned are not the same dollars that were invested! The NZ dollar of Nov 2007 could buy a lot more than now.

So that house may have the same dollar price, but it does not have the same value.

I have made small investments in other assets that has given me a much higher return than property would have in the same term.

The QV stats by itself can’t tell you whether it is time to buy a house, or if it is too late to sell that second home. Prices could keep falling, or they could stabilize and begin to recover; that will be determined by the supply of homes on the market, the needs of buyers, and the strength of their finances. One thing is certain: in the aggregate, home values will never go to zero. People need to live somewhere, and real property has real value.

As a first home buyer, I try to get a better understanding of the underlying economic drivers that are pushing up house prices. And evaluate whether these drivers are sustainable over the next couple of years. I do agree that there could be some occasional spikes but in the short term (next 2-3 yrs), I don't think that house prices will move much. In my case, I would not buy a house with a capital growth expectation; rather see a roof over my head as just that. A roof one can buy or rent, just like a photocopier. Renting currently is cheaper for me - than buying. 

 

There's about 23,000 new people in Auckland each year competing for around 3000 new dwellings.  I know BH does not believe supply or demand affects property prices however he has been wrong before.

Table 4 is number of consented dwellings:

http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/Buildin...

Population estimates:

http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Methods%20and%20Services/Tables/Subnational%20population%20estimates/subpopest2001-10.xls

Where are you getting your stats from. I assume you mean that the population has increased by that much. However only a tiny fraction of those would be looking at buying a new house. Also you may have 3-4 if not more people in a single house

Statistics New Zealand.

They all want a house - to buy or rent is irrelevant.  There are not enough houses being built. 

Average house occupancy in NZ is under three.If you think 3000 houses is enough for 23,000 people you must be expecting every single new house to have 7+ inhabitants.

But it's not 23,000 people into 3000 new house is it ,Bob. It's the increase of people into the total housing stock of Auckland, and that ratio only has to go up from 2.35 to 2.38 people per dwelling ( assuming, say, 625,000  dwelling in Auckland)  to absorb any excess that you see in the stats.

exactly!

BTW - I think this 2% increase is a dead cat bounce. There's nothing in the Akld economy that reassures me that these prices can be sustained. Once interest rates start rising and Aucklanders drift to Chch for the rebuild next year, we'll see it drop away again 

And I'm meeting more young kiwis by the day who are either moving to Aus or strongly thinking of moving 

The dead cat actually bounced between Q3/Q4 in 2009. 

It has remained dead since then but the owners just haven't been prepared to bury it.

Like all dead cats however, the corpse will continue to decay and the owners will eventually pick up the shovel in desperation.

I should know - I offered CV on a dead cat back in late 2009 (against my own best advice) and it's still sitting on the same roadside with a cardboard gravemarker reading "Must Sell".

Oh My, don't get too carried away as your dead cat could be other peoples' home.  All they need is a home to live in, to raise a family, to be happy and to move on with their lives.

This particular dead cat's owners moved to Aus in 2008.  I suspect there are alot of dead cats out there whose owners are overseas - hoping and praying that the populus here doesn't recognise a dead cat from a live one.

:-)

Duh - obviously.  I'm not suggesting there's 14,600 new street people every year.  

In 2011 there are 515,600 households in Auckland averaging 2.8 people.  In your bizarre theory it won't matter that by 2021 there will be another 230,000 people but only 30,000 houses built (giving 3.12 people per house) because:

- increased overcrowding has no effect on house prices

- lots of new taxes and costs will ensure that 2011 housing is going to be way cheaper than it is now.

 

You don't need to 'assume' your figures - they are available from SNZ

Well as one of those people who can no longer afford a house, I'm now looking at leaving the land of the long white mortgage.

Pity, I would like to stay, but who wants to live in a place where you can't afford to put some rusting tin above, and some half rotting timer around you.  

Cmon people, housing, It's a place to live, why should I mortgage the best part of my life away for a ridiculusly inflated sum and become a debt slave to a bank? 

There are better ways of spending one's life!

Where are you going that it is any cheaper?

Erm, when you factor in Nz's high interest rates and low income, the better question is where isn't cheaper?

or safer........... surely when all hell breaks loose best place to be is right here in god zone?

Safer - are you sure?  When all hell breaks loose and bigger nations want our land to feed their population (no different to invading the Middle East for their oil) which would be the easiest country to take control of?

Of course we won't need to be invaded if we've already sold everything to the highest bidder.

erm.....Canada is worse, OZ bad, Uk a basket case....hard to see anywhere thats better.

regards

Maybe a change of mindset over what housing is & isn't would be another test to see how badly you don't want to leave hey.
If you are heading to another western city in and anlgo centric country then you are movIng to the same problem there.
Stay in Nz , houses will become cheaper if not totally affordable mos likely sooner than people can accept or believe.
Stay & contribute to making Nz great again, imagine how cool that would be if we were able to turn it to reality.

had a look at a townhouse in the weekend , Grammar zone - shaded, rotting decrepid 1970s thing. CV 470K, vendor wanting 550K. In the ad the RE agent claimed the bathrooms had been "refreshed"  - What a joke: the tiles around the bath had fallen off, the fittings were old, and part of the wall was rotting! 

This was close to the final straw for me. I'm close to securing a position in Adelaide - financial package will be better than here, and housing is cheaper (and better quality).

NZ truly is the land of the long white rip off

I wouldn't blame you!

But, make sure you compare apples with apples and look in Adelaide at the top school zone, if they have such things.

Kate, you can't compare apples with apples if you go to Adelaide because the Ockers won't allow the importation of our apples!

I know what you are talking about - it's that duplex in Benson Road, rotten window frame and all, cross leased, but Grammar Zoned.  The owner actually rejected a 550k offer last year and now in the market again...

thats the one, a joke.

Agent asked "to rent or occupy" - I said neither!

you'd be lucky to get $500pw in rent for that property - even assuming a 500K sale price (let alone 550K) thats only a 5% gross yield

You'd probably need to spend 100K to bring it up to even a semi-decent standard

around CV might be fair value - with a further 100K spent on it 

Why do you want to pay inflated prices just to live in the 'Grammar Zone' for? What sort of nonsense is this?

Do you think Grammar is the only good school in Auckland, let alone New Zealand? What, do the text books say something different there?

Good luck in Adelaide MIA :)

I have to agree with David B and I have said to you before on posts what's so fancy about living in 'Grammar zone'?. Come out into the suburbs and buy something that isn't 'pumped up' .

I know a couple that went from a modest house in the 'burbs to a grammar zone house and now both parents work and the kids are in day care. The kids arent even ready for high school yet but they were willing to get a $800 mortgage to be in 'Grammar Zone'. If one of them loses their job they are stuffed. Why not a modest house and allow one of the parents to stay home with the kids at least part of the time. Just my 5c :)

MIA, keep us updated with the Adelaide scene, I do enjoy your posts :)

MIA your posts are usually pretty well thought out, are you sure you want to leave? Nz needs more like you to stay bro because the less people who see the bigger picture & can look outward the less of a chance Nz has the turn the ship around.

thanks - I've made multiple submissions on govt policy, made untold posts on blogs such as this, etc etc. I've tried to change the system rather than just whinge - I've had some success but not enough

I've run out of patience, quite simply. There are massive structural issues facing this country that are just not being addressed. In my view our housing still remains ridiculously overpriced, especially relative to its quality (or lack thereof). And one more significant natural disaster and the coutnry would be rooted....

time to get out

I'm not surprised to hear you have done those things. I use this site & others for research purposes , I don't always log in & post , actually I've not done for quite a while until the past few days.
Having been abroad for ages but always watching the goings on at home As well as coming home regularly, I'm going the other way and coming back. The success you have been looking for like others here has been individuals mostly slogging away I suspect. What is needed is planned co ordinated effort which uses the systems against themselves. I've spent years learning & planning, wondering if I'm going crazy along the way. You won't have to be in Nz to be involved though , just keep an eye out if you do leave. I'm sure you agree it's bloody critical stages now. I am sick of my pride in our country being taken away from me by the idiots we let run the place, bottom line.
All the best mate

This country is in a lot better shape than you think it is. But a vote for Labour and all bets are off.

Still stuck on the old red or blue two card shuffle eh , just stuck on it some folk. Please tell me why it's going so well David , other than because from your words it sounds like your team are in charge, that you feel you're on the winning side. Spare me days

Ps im not a supporter of any party, but Im very jaded with those who blindly follow. Especially when their time to alter the countrys course is past, with respect to some BB's

The world hasn't changed, and neither have people. It is still largely split down a left-right divide. Whether you can see that or not, or care to acknowledge it, is irrelevant to me. It is what it is.

NZ mortgage rates are at historic 40 year lows.

Unemployment is only ~6.5%

Our export commodity (dairy in particular) prices are at historic highs

We are starting to run trade surpluses

New Zealanders are living longer than they have ever before

We have come through an earthquake that wrecked our third largest city and the sky do not fall in

Our exchange rate is at historic highs because the rest of the world likes what it sees

And you (and others here) think we are on the verge of collapse???

HELLO???

Some of you guys really haven’t got a clue. And given the position that some of you hold, it’s a disgrace.

 We have come through an earthquake that wrecked our third largest city and the sky do not fall in

I really like that David - yes - that looks like other comments, in particular very romantic.

The world is changing David I have news for you , and if people don't get over being sold with left or right which leads to the same result , then what we have is what we got & its not heading the right way. The world won't move on for the better with simple views like yours & your generation are the major inhibitors now. I can tell from your writing that your ability to help change is past. David this is not personal, it's just too serious for simple uninformed points of view. What positions are you referring to that are a disgrace? If you mean the politicians who have sold out his country since Muldoon , I agree they are a disgrace , red , blue the lot!
Verge of collapse , well not if you only read govt sponsored stats & the NZ Herald, then you will believe anything. Not one of your points is backed up with anything, & yet they all tell the story of where Nz is heading, you just don't understand the reasons why that's not a good direction.
As I've said in many other posts , I love my country & and will put my neck out to try & enable my generation to lead the change for the better because it is up to us.
My only ask is that people open their minds & their eyes, & those who allowed us to inherit the mess stay out of the way , keep quiet, and enjoy the pension. Leave the hard work to us , no sweat ,some will step up. We won't just abidicate as if it's our right to a free ride. Stone me crows!

Thank God for democracy and the rule of law, as the only logical end to your means is the gulag and the re-education camp. 

Democracy & rule of law are fictions used to control simple minds.

http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekl...

Some reading for your beloved democratic grid.

All the best

Can you put the link here?

You can rent, nothing wrong with that apart from your parents doesn't think its a good idea.  Then its your wife that wants a home to raise a family.  Then you need a bigger house for a bigger family.  Then you will be looking to move to a better school zone... Its a vicous circle.

“And remember, where you have a concentration of power in a few hands, all too frequently men with the mentality of gangsters get control. History has proven that. All power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely.”  ---Lord Acton

Is this not what we have now?

"The purpose of government is to prevent injustice...except for the injustice committed by the government itself" ---Ibn Khalduhn

I'm with you Gloom.  No wait, I will take it a few steps further.  I will probably not buy again for at least the next 10 years.  My take:

1) Any fool who listens to Barfoot and Thompson for their financial investing advice should lose their money, as a home is the primary investment for most families.  Every time I see Bernard bring that fat f-cker from Barfoot's on to say how great the market is, I want to hit something.  Flushing your money down the toilet is easier, and faster, too  It's also less painful than feeding a beast that is never satisfied- called a "mortgage."  Let's chat after the brief stimulus of the Rugby World Cup is over.  The Chinese still haven't found a use for their "bird's nest" stadium in China after the 2008 Olympics.  Demand for real estate will probably be much the same here come Spring- a vacuous hole.  Hey- I hope I'm wrong. 

2) The leaky home situation has yet to be factored into prices.  New Zealand construction is crap anyway- so far behind world and current building standards.  Most housing stock should just be torn down and re-built.  What you are really buying is overpriced land- thanks to "smart growth" initiatives.  It isn't looking very smart right now.  When has anything been decided correctly by politicians.  It usually happens IN SPITE of political involvement. 

3) The capital gains tax issue is adding more uncertainty to the market.  Why not kick a market once it's down- that sounds like a good idea! 

4) Peak unaffordability has hit "the Lucky Country" - anyone who believes that THIS rolling train wreak won't affect us here is an idiot, plain and simple.  At least we can feel safe that all of our banks are Kiwi-owned.....oops!

5) None of the problems of the GFC have been effectively fixed, making the next, inevitable crash that much more disasterous, when it finally hits for a second time.  If the last Depression is any indicator, this next crash will be the one that bankrupts everyone that survived the 2008 collapse. 

6)  Renting is so much EASIER.  You don't like your situation?  You just hand in your keys to the landlord and out you go!  No real estate agents, no banks, no slow buyers, no bank qualification.  And the houses for rent are now getting nicer and nicer for the same money, as landlords get desperate for tenants who can actually pay their rent on time. 

7)  After 7 years of paying a mortgage, your prinicple balance is basically the same.  You didn't know that?  Google "amortization calculator."

8) The weekly cash outlay of "owning" vs renting the same house on the same street is significantly higher for the foreseeable future (if you want to call having a mortgage "owning", when you are actually renting it from the bank + you have the built-in benefit of spending your weekends doing house maintenance).  The difference in payments is substantial and better used to buy better assets, like gold. 

9) If governments wanted a real recovery, they would have thrown ALL of the bankers in prison and hit the "reset" button.  Yes, it would have been painful, and the economy would have suffered, but we would be going up for real by now, instead of this up and down BS.  The cloeset example is Iceland.  People are still surviving there, and things are getting steadily better.  Can you say the same of Ireland or Greece?

10) Do you really think, on a percentage basis, that real estate is going to adjust in value to a devaluating currency as quickly as, say, gold or silver? 

11) Several sovereign banks are now buying gold and silver with both hands- does this speak to a lot of trust in the system being sustainable? 

12) Oh yeah.  If you haven't prepared yourself for a "worst case scenario" you too are an idiot.  Sorry

13) Historically, in times like these, debts between countries are settled in a war.  Is it really different this time?  Who do we really owe all the debts to?  How did it get this way?   

14) Inflation will hit housing prices LAST, well after food and fuel, because prices are already stupid for "safe as houses" real estate.  Oh, where do families come up with the extra money to pay more rent or house payments if they have to pay more for groceries? Petrol?  Electricity?  And no raise from the job?  For this house prices will be the same 10 years from now than they are today.  This is what I'm betting on.  We will see if I'm correct soon enough.

15) who is going to buy your overpriced home if we have a war or major military conflict? 

16) I've got some hot property for sale in Fukushima- this market is red hot...glowing, in fact. 

17) the real estate market here hasn't had the massive price correction that is NECESSARY for prices to start going up again.  All owners of leveraged property are sitting ducks, waiting to be taken out by the correction that is long overdue.  It's either that or massive money printing and hyperinflation, in which case we're all f-cked.  You can't eat a house. 

 

“The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is The People vs. The Banks.” - Lord Acton  ,

This is the same fellow who brought you "All power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely."  However, the entire paragraph from which this quote was taken is even better, as a decision was being made as to whether the Pope be deemed "infallible" as a matter of law:

"I cannot accept your canon that we are to judge Pope and King unlike other men with a favourable presumption that they did no wrong. If there is any presumption, it is the other way, against the holders of power, increasing as the power increases. Historic responsibility has to make up for the want of legal responsibility. All power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men, even when they exercise influence and not authority: still more when you superadd the tendency or certainty of corruption by full authority. There is no worse heresy than that the office sanctifies the holder of it."

 

 

Can only applaud this entry!

Marty naive is never a good thing to be mate, but hear you about keeping a positive outlook , it's better for the soul. It must not be allowed to overshadow the realities of the world. I think you are aware of this though right ?

My son is a 1st time buyer, early 20s married family....blue collar...2 yrs ago in big debit.

How? cause he and his wfe decided to get off their butts and DO, rather than sit around bitching....old school thought.

And like old school do what they have to to achieve....She has a low paid part time job, pays immediate bills..sometimes, stay at home and look after children.

He often spend anything from a few days to 2 months away on site..currently in Aussie for 6 weeks, then back for 2  for the next 2 yrs...then inbetween he flys the family over for a few days when has time off.

The work..dawn to dusk, way out in places people dont want to go doing stuff no one else wants to or prepared  do.

"If u want something, u will get it., if u dont get it u didnt really want it...and just waste everyones time talking about it."

My Grandmother, 40 odd yrs ago.

P,S they have enough deposit (20%) saved to nearly  afford the Ave priced NZ home

Do you really think that is "good" in terms of raising a family - having the breadwinner needing to live offshore for months and months on end - for what?  To save for a deposit on a depreciating asset?

Nuts, to me.  If I was a kid - I'd rather have Dad around full time.

"Do you really think that is "good" in terms of raising a family"

That is the mamby pamy, PC attitude that did not get this country discovered, built , survive the Depression, win wars....or even educated ( NZ school inspectors used to leave their family for weeks at a time.

If THAT is the case then our parents, crand parents and 10,000 generations of mankind have been screwed in the head.

This is the attutude of a generation that has been the most consumerest and soft generation in the history of mankind.

This is the attitude why we have an unemployment rate of about 6.4%,    over 45 yrs about  1.4%  and under 25 yrs  27,8%

This is the attitude why this country now imports labour from Philipines, Vet Nam, The Islands to pick our fruit and milk our cows.....so what they pay in tax pays for our youth to sit on their butts.

Good for parenting?   So what is better?  Show our childen how we are so good at sitting around bitching, getting know where, give up when the heat is on?.

Im Proud that my Father and grandfather went off in the depression, months at a time in terrible conditions to build those concret bridges on our highways...by hand....THAT is the example they set me, .the example they set my children and my family.

Im proud that my son has married a young lady of the same old true grit he is made of....And proud of the support her parents and us give her while our son is away.

Overly melodramatic.

For example, this statement;

This is the attitude why this country now imports labour from Philipines, Vet Nam, The Islands to pick our fruit and milk our cows.....so what they pay in tax pays for our youth to sit on their butts. 

Migrant workers only pay a 15% flat tax on their NZ labour - so they're certainly not funding our social welfare system;

http://www.ird.govt.nz/technical-tax/legislation/2009/2009-34/2009-34-other-policy-matters/2009-34-op-seasonal-workers/ 

Our social welfare system is instead being funded by borrowing - the very same silly trap that you seem to be promoting your children get on board.

The fault in your logic is typical of a generation that for some silly reason seems to think home ownership is more important than anything.  That's the inter-generational load of crock - it's debt that is the "bad guy" in this day and age.  If a family can stay out of debt here in NZ, I don't see alot of reason to become a migrant labourer in Aus while leaving the family here.

Is NZ to aspire to become the Phillipines or the Vietnam of Australia?

Steptoe if you knew why or who created the depression , financed most the wars over hundreds of years & created the the financial crises we now have, I suspect you may feel somewhat different on a number of things you say.
You should be proud of your sons effort , but the point is he should not be in that situation. If you owe money you are owned , we need to change the mindset. Please don't pass your beliefs , fears etc down the generations as it only benefits the banks for the most part.
Be well & again , be proud of your family , just look deeper into the reasons behind situations please.

Don't forget, Steptoe, Kate is an American. She's not a New Zealander. So with all due respects to her she doesn't really know the history or culture of this country like those of us who were born here and who sat on the knees of our parents, grandparents and great grandparents, and learnt how they fought for and built it. In this PC age, that may be an unpopular sentiment. But it’s true.

When I was a child, my mother used to always point out to me a space by a river where there was a depression era camp of workers, who built those bridges and roads in her district. And my grandmother who used to tell me of giving meals and a bed for a night or two to unemployed men who would roam the countryside, in exchange for a days labour on the farm. 

And how many here know that the causeway across Hobson Bay that links Mechanics bay (Parnell) with Orakei (Tamaki drive) was in fact a depression era project for the unemployed of Auckland?

Not enough, that's how many.

DB, hubby is an NZer whose family set up the first Kauri mill in Northland.  Grandmother was the first woman elected to the Auckland City Council (though not sure it was called that in those days).  She was widowed early in her life with 9 children.  Husband's father served in WWII from 1939 - 1945 - in the African desert and Italy first and after VE Day, finished his service in the Pacific.  My Grandfather served in WWI (1st Newfoundland regiment) - tried to sign up when WWII broke out and the recrutiment officer refused him - told him to return home to his wife and seven kids.  So he took over as scoutmaster of the local troop and taught them how to march and other soldiering skills.  Received an award from Baden Powell as his ex-scouts were noted for their discipline and pre-training once they joined up to serve.  His eldest son, my uncle, lied his way into service at the age of 17.  Granddad was also elected President of the first paperworkers union branch in his workplace - retained the position until the day of his retirement, after which time one of his sons was elected to the position.  My Dad served in the Korean War - a cryptographer based in Texas.  Mom, a nurse, was in charge of the San Antonio Hospital Emergency Room during this time and implemented a policy which saw patients treated in order of severity of injury, as opposed to according to race, which got her into all kinds of trouble with the local administration.  They couldn't fire her, so spoke to Dad's officers.  Neither was he in support of their race-based intentions - so they got transferred to the Alaskan Territory with my 2 yo sister.  Had my brother there.  Returned to the States and Dad went on the GI Bill - did a degree in physics.  I was born on campus - Mom walked off the hospital ward she was working on and gave birth to me an hour later.

And even though Im an American, it was proudly pointed out to me that the US Marines built Centennial Highway between Pukerua Bay and Paekakariki during WWII.

My point... you don't need to be a NZer to know NZ history - and moreover, NZ was not the only country in the world to suffer hardship during wars, depressions and social upheavals.

 

kudos Steptoe.

Steptoe , full credit to your son , but I would advise after going through all that & subjecting wife & child to it. All while missing valuable family time which can never be had again. , Do some very serious thinking about buying. To go through such effort to have it turn toes up on you would be hard to take. People need to rethink what houses really are , and what their learned thinking & behaviours cause them to be trapped into.

"after going through all that & subjecting wife & child to it. All while missing valuable family time which can never be had again"

There is that "attitude" again...bottom line my son is his own man..he asks for advice, I give them my thoughts without BS....What they decide is their life, and they do it eyes wide open..." Valuable family time"

Just cause one is way...doesnt mean lost time when together..It actually works out...as my son blantantly worked out and informed me....they have more.. and thats including the time he goes hunting. Over 6 weeks, how much "quailty time" do actually spend with your family?  2 weeks in 6 is very hard to beat+ the days the family flys over on his few days off.

The scarry thing is when ones childen do the same as u did before they where born...but on a far larger scale.

They get no help from us....except advice..they are adults responsable for their own futures....He /they take that seriously..they want a stable consistant enviroment near reasonable schools, where people say hello when walking down the street...and that means owning the roof over there heads, not have the home sold out from underneath....where he can have his own workshop , build and do things with the freedom they dont have now...like holes in the wall to hang pics...put gardens in , paint the colours they want when they want.

PS his Affordabity be bases on a mortague of 9%...NOT todays lowest ever for the longest period ever interest rates.

 

Agree whole heartedly.  The ones that gets one with it will end up better of because they are more productive than ones bitching and waiting for price to fall.

As long as it is not driven by blind desire or pre set ideas then i agree. Otherwise it can lead to more split up families. It's about finding the balance in all the forces which influence us.

If 2 people who before getting married have sorted their aims and ambitios out for their family ..and are committed to those and each other with eyes wide open.....hey thats what people used to do ....then its not an issue.

If such circumstances do split a family...if it was not that it WILL be something else anyway

 hes not doing anything different from the last few yrs...except instead of being 'down country' hes just a few miles further away...just communtes a little further....and earning bigger money.

What is has been considered....is most marrages fail when going off shore because the wives find it far more difficilt to 'fit in'  and wives tend to look more to their mothers for support in rasing children.....hence why still live in NZ.

Also while he is away for weeks on end in some forgotten cnr of Aussie, his wife is isolated in the city on her own. THAT is more likely tobreak a marrage/family.

... hes not doing anything different from the last few yrs...except instead of being 'down country' hes just a few miles further away...just communtes a little further....and earning bigger money.

By 'down country' here in NZ - I assume you mean he had been labouring in rural or back country NZ prior.  And herein lie the conundrum should that be the case:  are those 'down country' jobs now being filled at lower rates in NZ by migrant workers?

Like others, I admire your son, the individual, for the sacrifices he appears to be making - but one has to look in behind as to why he is having to go to these lengths to raise a family and put a roof over their heads.

I would strongly suggest you are wasting your breath with this one.

 I assume you mean he had been labouring in rural or back country NZ

Assume..we know what that means....but yes and no....whereever there is work that others are not prepared to do, he will hang off a rope in the CBD  or a tower in the middle of no where thats above the snow line....its about comunting distances and being away for anything from days to weeks.

But this is all about attitude..the attitude to do what is NEEDED to achieve the enviroment he and his wife want for THEIR family......not just sit on their butts dreaming day dreams and thinking  what if.

We apply The NZ Dream in NZ, not the bloody American Dream of bigger flashier more powerful  is better....The NZ dream is ..for those who dont want handouts..like sub prime loads to maintain the American dream instigated by American pollies.

"And herein lie the conundrum should that be the case:  are those 'down country' jobs now being filled at lower rates in NZ by migrant workers?"

No...with indescision, messing around and bearocatic BS of Government, localbodies, and telecomuication companies in NZ..the work is there, but peice meal inconsistant.....

So basically however he has moved to oz to work. Sure he comes back, but that is not sustainable for many, and is not the way NZ should work. We should have the jobs in NZ that will support people, without them needing to go to OZ. Not a critisim of your son as he has got out and done something.

Not the way NZ should work??? And why would that be any different to a New Zealander who goes to sea, works in the armed forces and is deployed o'seas, flies, or spends days to weeks away from home as a commercial traveller? I don't see the problem with any of that or a sign that there is something wrong with NZ as a result?

Such a pity, you even have to mention this!!!

Vancouver and Sydney are the markets to watch. As they go, so goes Auckland.  Trees don't grow to the sky, just as any market doesn't go up forever.  But hey!  This time is different!  http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/

FYI here's the latest QV survey results showing most think prices will rise a bit over the next year.

http://www.qv.co.nz/propertyinformation/KnowledgeCentre/Little+change+in+consumer+sentiment+over+property+market+11072011.htm

cheers

Bernard

Is this a voluntary poll, like the ones interest.co.nz run occasionally?

If so, it isn't representative of the total population as the sample is self-selecting and probably biased :-)

Now a message to all  you whingers and whiners.

Write out 1000 times

"Olly Newland was right - Bernard Hickey was wrong"

And when you have done that write out another 1000 times:

" A capital gains tax will push up prices and push up rents"

And when you have done that, write out 1000 times:

"Auckland rents will double over the next few years"

Then when you have done that, all you whingers who think property is finished as an investment can remain poor and envious for the rest of your lives. 

Write a Million times that BigDaddy Is a Stupid

Olly has been bankrupt before through gambling in real estate, why should this time be any different?

You can lead the horses to water, Big Daddy, but you surely cannot make them drink.

I hope you are enjoying all your filthy lucre!

double

I read an article on the Economist website last week comparing house prices versus rental costs which suggested that houses in NZ were 15% over-valued and Australian houses were 50% over-valued. I can't find it now.

Tor Lawn

I have deleted your last comments. You know why. This is your last warning.

If you post any more abusive or defamatory comments you will be deleted

Bernard

You're more likely to be cut.

Is your house a "crack shack" or a "mansion"?  At these prices, can you spot the difference? 

Let's see if you can spot the intricacies of fine real estate vs a drug house.  After all, it's all about location, isn't it? 

http://www.crackshackormansion.com/

All that safety and stability has come with a price. It may have overinflated prices. At least that's how some doubters see it. One Vancouver wag has actually been affixing "certified bubble pricing" stickers to Realtors' signs. Also among the skeptics is Petr Pospisil, a teacher in Vancouver who created a website called "Crack Shack or Mansion," in which the visitor attempts to guess whether a pictured bungalow is a bombed-out home of little value or a real Vancouver listing with a price of over a million Canadian dollars. Pospisil, alternately concerned and amused by what he saw as an irrational mania for real estate, got 30,000 views on the first day he put up the site. Within five days, 200,000 had played the game.

"Canadians defend their bubbles, especially here in Vancouver," says Pospisil. "People get angry when you tell them it's a bubble. They say it's different here, that this is such a beautiful place and everything is different. Everywhere there is a bubble, they say it's different."

Ride the cirtual reality roller coaster of vancouver real estate prices

http://vancouvercondo.info/coaster

Here's the one for America from a few years ago- we all know how it ends http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U

I have a married couple friends who are cash buyers with a budget of 800k and they have been looking for 3 months in the eastern suburbs with no joy.  The closest the managed to find is an average 3 beds 2 baths cedar-clad townhouse in Takitimu St, Orakei on a 400+sqm land.  The house is going to auction on 20/07 with a CV of 800k surely the owner is looking for at least 50k above that??  My personal opinion is that in this area, if you don't have 1 million+ budget you will always have to compromise in one way or another.

Can't buy anything today?  Why not rent a similar house in the neighborhood and keep your money ready to buy whatever you want after the market tanks?  It's either that or iincomes are expected to double next year.  Which do you think is more likely?

Tomorrow's news today "real estate devastates retirement hopes of many" and "bankrupcies hit new record" and "mortgagee sales more than expected."

Not buying now is saving you from a world of pain a year from now.  The inventory of homes for sale is building now.  Wait till Spring, when a million unsold homes hit the market all at once.  Then we will see what happens to prices.  These high prices are only a result of banks easing interest rates.  They are doing it to protect THEMSELVES.  If they rasied rates, their default rates would go through the roof OVERNIGHT.  And they are already bad!  Aren't we on track for a record in mortgagee sales this year?  Why isn't anybody talking about THAT!  I know...we don't want to spook the flock.  Keep buying!  The future is bright, errr, buy while you still have a chance! 

Few people have thought about "what happens when a bank goes out of business?  Who will lend the money to buy your overpriced home then?" 

Everybody who has a clue should go have a look at Westpac's OZ residential mortgage exposure.  It's shocking!  If they go toes-up, who else will fill their shoes as a lender for your overpriced property? 

The argument for "more migrants than there are houses being built" forgot that grown children CAN move back in with their parents, AND more than 3 people CAN live in the average house.  It happens all the time, especially in recessions. 

"There's a sucker born every minute." -PT Barnum

HR I concur with you , and will not be giving my cash to a bank via a mortgage for an overpriced shack anytime soon if ever.
In regards to banks if they go out of business, they get hoovered up by the banks still allowed to exist. There is market contraction industry wide always, it's the monopoly board game in real life, competition is seen as the enemy. That's the way the big players roll.

If you’re a renter who reads the newspapers, you have spent the last few years in a constant state of low-level anger at this “bizarre spectacle”—the unexamined assumption that perpetually escalating housing prices are the natural state of human affairs, and certainly a good enough proxy for economic health that the two quantities are freely interchangeable. How much more bizarre must it look in England?

http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/10/21/did-2010s-man-of-the-year-die-in-1897/

Accidently posted twice but this is from the same link:

in July, Martin Wolf, perhaps the English-speaking world’s most respected finance columnist, went on a Georgiacal tear in the Financial Times:

In 1984, I bought my London house. I estimate that the land on which it sits was worth £100,000 in today’s prices. Today, the value is perhaps ten times as great. All of that vast increment is the fruit of no effort of mine. …This appropriation of the rise in the value of land is not just unfair: what have I done to deserve this increase in my wealth? It has obviously dire consequences.

First, it makes it necessary for the state to fund itself by taxing effort, ingenuity and foresight. Taxation of labour and capital must lower their supply. Taxation of resources will not have the same result, because supply is given. Such taxes reduce the unearned rewards to owners.

Second, this system creates calamitous political incentives. In a world in which people have borrowed heavily to own a location, they are desperate to enjoy land price rises and, still more, to prevent price falls. Thus we see a bizarre spectacle: newspapers hail upward moves in the price of a place to live—the most basic of all amenities.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/10/21/did-2010s-man-of-the-year-die-in-1897/

Ill try get the chart for the uk , there was a time second half of last century , but it came back to trend by 1991 if memory serves. Nothing like last decade , the environment had not been put in place for it to happen properly in housing.
I live in the uk still , & actually things are bubbling along , it's pretty hard yards in the job markets though, even the banks have tightened up , unless you work in risk or integration , which is ironic in the case of risk & compliance.

This should stir the hornets a little - lots to get head around & cross research here eh

http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekl...

Good to see that I'm not the only one reading Chapman.

Get the audio & listen to him as well , very intereting real world stuff. I'll assume if you know of him then you read & or follow others who focus on real world
My concern is that too many people are reading too narrow a point of view, not just in Nz but globally

It had to laugh when I read about what determines the QV numbers. This "rise in Auckland" is all about a perceived increase in value by QV, completely unrelated to what the market is 'actually' doing in real terms. (ie. the prices that are actually being paid for properties.)

This from the horse's mouth:

"While unrelated to the QV index, and a less reliable measure of value change, the average New Zealand sales price over the last three months is…"

http://www.qv.co.nz/onlinereports/propertyvaluemap.htm

I just bought my first house for 900k. 2 incomes with no children and working hard for the last 3 years was the key. Nice renovated 3 bedroom house in mt eden. It can be done if you work hard and manage your expenses i.e. no ciggarettes, no alchohol and no buying lunches/coffee. On my way to work I see lots of people smoking and drinking a couple of coffees all before getting to work - well there is the first hour of earning gone.

900k for your first house, how many times your household income is that if you don't mind me asking?

900k is about average in Mt Eden, and probably below average in Epsom/Remuera...nothing too flash.  

yeah that's all cool nice area , but 900k for your first house, when you've only been saving for 3 years? Either earning a packet and paid cash then that is fine, or earning good money and has borrowed $500k?

 

 

 

Since you're happy with sharing figures, what's your mortgage taxman?  Or did you save 900K in 3 years?  Do you need two incomes to support the mortgage? What happens when you want kids, or if one earner looses thier job?

I wonder what would happen if everyone worked twice as hard? Oh, wait...  we do... the average household has two people working now.  So I guess it must be twice as easy to buy a house? Erm, sadly no.

 

600k mortgage so about 30% equity currently. yes it is a bit of a beast but I hope to have it under control in a couple of years. Our incomes are not huge, both are under 6 figures. We could have easily got something a lot cheaper  in a different area but this really was our "dream house". We work most weekends and I am hoping to get some extra work outside my normal work hours.

Congratulations on your first home purchase! It is always good to see somebody relying on their own efforts rather than on more handouts, or on winning lotto, or waiting for a market “crash”…

Too many MPs and Ministers have iinvestment properties. One could not expect that they would do anything that would adversely affect these investments. Why do you think Labour's proposed CGT is not retroactive. If it were, Phil Goff would not be able to get support for it from his colleagues.